Optimal capital accumulation under price uncertainty and costly reversibility

We consider the optimal capital accumulation policy of a competitive firm operating in the presence of decreasing returns to scale, price uncertainty, and costly reversibility of investment. We characterize the optimal accumulation policy and derive the value of the firm by focusing on the marginal investment decision and solving the associated optimal timing problem characterizing the option value of the associated opportunity to either disinvest or acquire a marginal unit of capacity. We also characterize the required exercise premia associated with the optimal policies and demonstrate that hysteresis prevails within this class of accumulation problems as well.     

A goal-seeking approach to capital budgeting

This paper articulates how a goal-seeking model addresses a variation of the capital-budgeting problem. Focused toward technology modernization in the public sector, this multi-criteria optimization model explicitly considers the diverse functions of the organization. In particular, the synergism amongst the functions is modeled as a multiplicative value function. The model is solved by the “constraint reduced feasible-region method”, resulting in a non-convex mathematical program that produces numerical intricacies. Linearization of the criterion (objective) functions reduces such intricacy. An Army-modernization acquisition-study was used to illustrate the proposed model, showing that its non-inferior solutions are remarkably stable. Comparison is also made with other approaches, typically formulated as goal-setting programs. The model highlights how technology acquisitions are affected as the priorities of each organizational function changes.     

构建资本预算决策的净现值扩展分析框架

净现值法是现代财务管理理论中备受推崇的资本预算决策方法,而内部收益率法却更受实务界的欢迎,但任何方法都不能适用于所有的资本预算决策.本文在分析净现值法缺陷的基础上,指出通过对净现值指标加以扩展,建立净现值扩展分析框架,把动态回收期、动态回收期指数和边际增长率都包括在资本预算的财务评估框架中,反映从净现值到边际增长率的自然递进过程,可以提供对资本预算决策财务优越性更有价值的分析.     

Cannibalization risk and limited liability: implications for firm valuation and capital budgeting

When two firms combine, the negative cash flows of some projects can cannibalize the positive cash flows of other projects. This may at least partly explain recently documented observations that there is value loss from diversification, value gain from splitting up an existing firm, and that the value loss is higher in the case of diversification into unrelated industries. Also, this may explain why the value and riskiness of an identical project can be different for firms with different assets in place and why the value of a project as stand-alone may be irrelevant for a firm’s investment decisions.     

A model for optimal resource allocation in the capital budgeting framework

Moder and Nicki (MN) presented in a recent issue of this journal a resource allocation model in the context of an urban renewal framework. This model was developed under “certainty” assumption. The present paper extends the MN model to “risk” conditions in the capital budgeting framework of a firm. The paper defines an appropriate measure of risk and explicitly introduces the possibilities of borrowing and lending in the model. Further analysis shows that slight variations of the constraints in the model yield important long-run policy guidelines to the management for resource allocation purposes.     

Sophisticated capital budgeting systems and their association with corporate performance

Prior empirical studies have been unable to establish any clear relationship existing between the capital budgeting practices adoted and corporate performance. This may partly be explained by the restrictive definition of capital budgeting employed in these studies. The present study, based on data gathered from 144 major companies, examines the relationship between the degree of sophistication identified in capital budgeting systems and corporate performance levels achieved over a number of years, when controlling for the interactive corporate characteristics of size, risk, capital intensity and industry class. The results are surprising. They reveal a consistent, significant negative association between the level of capital budgeting sophistication and corporate performance.     

The design of capital budgeting processes and the corporate context

This study investigates how differences in the degree of capital budgeting sophistication and formalization are related to the corporate context. A model was developed and the expectations in the model were explored with data gathered from 146 major UK firms. The results generally support the model and show that the investment procedures and techniques adopted by firms may be partly explained in terms of the corporate context.     

基于实物期权理论的资本预算探讨

文章探讨了实物期权的思想和资本预算中的实物期权,并建立了基于期权理论的资本预算模型,着重分析了这种模型的特点和运用的关键。     

A note on capital budgeting in the purchase of information

A capital budgeting problem of purchasing perfect information is defined. The relationship between this problem and the Expected Value measure is shown and an illustrative example provided.     

Trends in the use of management science techniques in capital budgeting

This paper examines trends in the use of management science techniques for capital investment decisions based on three surveys conducted on the same 100 large UK firms between 1975 and 1986. A strong increase in the uptake of these techniques is reported, which may partly be explained by the recent developments in end-user computing and investment software. The logistic forecasting model is employed to examine the trend and to forecast usage in the 1990s.     

Managing risk and uncertainty in complex capital projects

In evaluating capital budgeting decisions, quantitative approaches, such as traditional discounted cash flow modeling and real options valuations, are useful when there is a presumed probability distribution for the future forecasted outcomes or for when there are lower levels of uncertainty. As uncertainty increases and forecasting becomes difficult, the value of financial modeling techniques decreases. Borrowing from the strategic management literature, we argue that it may be useful to employ a qualitative approach to evaluate capital projects when faced with high levels of uncertainty. In order to illustrate our argument, we use a derivative of scenario planning and qualitative real options to evaluate non-quantifiable factors in a project for the National Ignition Facility.     

An investigation of the usage of capital budgeting techniques by small and medium enterprises

Quality & Quantity - This paper examines the extent or usage of capital budgeting techniques in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and the effect of non-financial factors on the choice of...     

Economic policy uncertainty and capital structure choice: Evidence from China

This paper studies how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate capital structure for Chinese listed firms from 2003 to 2013. We show that as the degree of economic policy uncertainty increases, firms tend to lower their leverage ratios. However, firms that are from regions with lower degrees of marketization, are state-owned or have prior bank-firm relationships mitigate the negative effect of policy uncertainty. Moreover, we provide consistent evidence that this negative effect is sourced from the deterioration of the external financing environment. We also find that firms adjust their financing structures by using more trade credit when economic policy uncertainty increases. Our results are robust to sample selection, data frequency, model specification and endogeneity.     

Multibidding game under uncertainty

This paper considers situations in which a group of agents has to decide whether to carry out a given public project or its alternative when agents hold private information. I use the budget-balanced multibidding mechanism (Pérez-Castrillo and Wettstein in Am Econ Rev 5:1577–1587, 2002) according to which the game to be played by participants has only one stage and simple rules that can be applied in a wide range of situations. It is shown that the symmetric equilibria of the multibidding game deliver ex-post efficient outcomes if the number of agents is two, for any underlying symmetric distribution characterizing uncertainty, or is very large.     

Consistent choice under uncertainty

Suppose ex post preferences are defined upon prizes and ex ante preferences are defined upon lotteries. Then the consistent choice of decision rules reigns whenever ex post optimality is equivalent to ex ante optimality. This essay provides a necessary and sufficient condition for consistent choice in terms of revealed preferences. Indeed, ex ante revealed preferences must be induced from ex post revealed preferences in a manner which requires them to satisfy the independence axiom from expected utility theory.     

Innovation speed under uncertainty and competition

Innovation speed is widely considered to be a key factor for a firm's ability to maintain competitive advantage. Primarily, empirical evidence has found contradictory interdependencies regarding the role of innovation speed. The prevailing proposition of “the faster the better” has been challenged by results of empirical studies heavily depending on the methodological setup used. In contrast, we propose a model of the complete innovation process to study innovation speed under uncertainty and competition. We find that higher market uncertainty speeds up innovation and encourages firms to innovate incrementally. Strong competition tends to reduce innovation speed and encourages rather radical innovation.     

The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock

This paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk-neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function. In the presence of convex costs of adjustment, investment is an increasing function of q, the shadow price of capital. Given the current price of output, we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment. Increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long-run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated. However, if the price of output is serially correlated, then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long-run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function. In this case, we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis.     

Public education under capital mobility

The paper considers a two-country model of overlapping generations economies with intergenerational transfers motivated by altruism and investment in human capital. We examine in a non-stationary competitive equilibrium the optimal provision of education with and without capital market integration. First, we explore how regimes of education provision—public, private or mixed—arise and how they affect the dynamics of autarkic economies. Second, we study the effects of capital market integration, in equilibrium, on the optimal provision of education. Third, we show that capital market integration enhances government intervention in the provision of public education (to improve the welfare of its constituents) and consider various solutions to such a competition.     

Opportunistic hiring and employee fit

Most research on selection processes and organizational fit deals with existing, unfilled positions where expectations and tasks are known and measurable. This article instead evaluates the reasons, processes, and implications of opportunistic hiring—hiring employees before their jobs exist. Examples from an exploratory study show how “fit” factors into selection decisions. A typology is offered along the dimensions of whether opportunistic hiring is used to meet immediate or anticipated needs and the extent to which these needs are articulated prior to selection. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.