FARM ADJUSTMENT AND THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT*

The problem of low income farms in Australia is examined in a dynamic context of overall farm adjustment. It is suggested that the pace of agricultural adjustment has been and is too slow, in the light of current and prospective market and cost trends. Consideration is given to both the case for, and the possibilities of, government action and the relationship of on?-farm adjustment to the adjustment needs of the economic and the social infrastructure on the agricultural sector.     

THE EFFECT OF PRICE REDUCTION AND DIRECT INCOME SUPPORT POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL INPUT MARKETS IN AUSTRIA

The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the effects of a shift from price support to direct income policy on agricultural factor markets and aggregate output. By utilising an econometric model for the Austrian agricultural sector, it is argued that the main purpose of this policy change, which is to move producers away from making production decisions in response to income support policies and to facilitate their response to market signals (‘decoupling’), is only partially realised. Switching from price to direct income support would result in little reduction in output, but some positive secondary effects can be observed. Ecological goals could be realised by lessening the degree of industrialisation due to lowering the capital-labour and intermediate input-labour ratios.     

农业生产风险对区域经济的影响分析

[目的]农业作为国民经济的基础产业对区域经济的发展至关重要,两者之间存在相互影响和相互制约的耦合关系。文章通过对作用于农业生产活动的主要因子对区域经济的影响研究,以期筛选出两者相互作用的关键因子,为规避或降低农业生产风险、协调经济发展提供理论基础。[方法]通过选取作用于农业生产活动的36个作用因子,对农业生产风险因子对区域经济的影响程度进行综合评分,采用层次分析法分析各指标对农业生产与区域经济影响的重要程度。[结果](1)市场需求量、农民人均纯收入、农业机械化总动力、市场价格动态、农作物种类和面积、农药化肥施用量、农田有效灌溉面积、单位耕地面积粮食产量、干旱、温度、洪涝、农业机械自动化、交通运输条件、农业信息化、农业技术推广程度等是重要性排序为前15位的风险因子。(2)随着农业机械自动化、农业信息化和农业技术推广程度的进步,干旱、温度和洪涝等风险因子对农业生产造成的产量风险随之降低。而市场需求、市场价格动态等对农业生产的作用风险在扩大,特别是在区域经济发展不稳定、发展不平衡的情况下更为突出。(3)政府财政对农业的投入、投资的规模和结构以及对农产品价格和流通的干预则影响到农业生产经营、地区生产总值和GDP的增长速率;且农业资源利用程度、栽培环境的保护以及农业环境污染的保护和治理则是区域经济可持续发展的重点。[结论]通过测度不同评价指标对农业生产的影响程度,指出作用于区域经济的关键风险因子,对降低和规避农业风险,协调农业与区域经济的稳定、可持续发展具有重要意义。     

Micro insights on the pathways to agricultural transformation: Comparative evidence from Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Most studies of agricultural transformation document the impact of agricultural income growth on macroeconomic indicators of development. Much less is known about the micro-scale changes within the farming sector that signal a transformation precipitated by agricultural income growth. This study provides a comparative analysis of the patterns of micro-level changes that occur among small-holder farmers in Uganda and Malawi in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia (SEA). Our analysis provides several important insights on agricultural transformation in these two regions. First, agricultural income in all examined countries is vulnerable to changes in precipitation and temperature, an effect that is nonlinear and asymmetric. SSA countries are more vulnerable to these weather changes. Second, exogenous increases in agricultural income in previous years improve non-farm income and trigger a change in labor allocation within the rural sector in SEA. However, this is the opposite in SSA where the increase in agricultural income reduces non-farm income, indicating a substitution effect between farm and non-farm sectors. These findings reveal clear agricultural transformation driven by agricultural income in SEA but no similar evidence in SSA.     

冀南地区特色农业适度规模化调查及对策研究

特色农业是现代农业的一种重要形式,可很好的发挥区域资源优势,提升农产品市场竞争力,增加农民收入,促进区域经济发展。适度规模化发展是提高农业生产效益、增强市场竞争能力的重要途径,是转变农业发展方式的重要内容,对于提高农业组织化程度、有效防范市场风险具有重要作用。特色农业适度规模化,可以最大限度地促进地区农业的发展。文章通过对冀南地区特色农业适度规模化发展现状的调查,分析该地区发展特色农业的土地、劳动力、企业、合作社等基本条件,指出该地区适度规模化在土地流转、生产体系、资金等方面存在的受制因素,提出推进土地流转、发展新型优势产业、注重品牌建设、强化科技力量、强化信息服务系统建设、加强农业基础设施建设等6项促进特色农业适度规模化发展的相应对策。     

我国农业高质量发展的机遇、问题及对策研究

[目的]农业高质量发展对于促进农业全面升级、农村全面进步、农民全面发展具有重要意义。[方法]文章采用文献研究法发现,当前,我国农业高质量发展的基础更加坚实,农业高质量发展应更加注重资源节约、更加注重环境友好、更加注重农产品质量、更加注重增加农民收入。[结果]我国农业高质量发展既面临着政策环境更加优越、市场空间更加宽广、创新驱动更加有力、内生动力更加强劲的大好机遇,但也面临着资源条件和生态环境两个"紧箍咒"对农业约束趋紧、农业产业结构亟待优化、农产品结构不尽合理、农产品质量安全水平亟需提升、农业特色优势产业不明晰、农产品区域品牌建设缓慢、农业现代物流业建设滞后等问题。[结论]应从加强顶层设计、推进农业绿色发展、大力优化农业产业结构、加快调整农产品供给结构、着力提升农产品质量安全水平、加快培育特色优势产业、推进农产品区域品牌建设、打造现代农业物流体系等方面推动农业高质量发展,不断满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要。     

SOURCES OF EXPORT EARNINGS INSTABILITY: THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURE

Previous studies of export earnings for less developed countries have suggested that earnings from primary products — including agriculture — might be more stable than those from industrial goods. Those studies used highly aggregated sectors, so that individual agricultural sectors could not be identified as stable or not. This study measures the export earnings instability of 20 commodity aggregates — more than half of them agricultural — for 27 countries between 1962 and 1983. The results indicate that some agricultural sectors were unstable and that no individual sector was universally stable. Agricultural sectors tended to be among the more stable sectors in low and middle income countries and among the less stable sectors in high income countries.     

涉农电商对产业扶贫的作用及相关措施探讨

[目的]文章旨在从作用机理的角度论证涉农电商的发展对我国当前产业扶贫的促进作用,并结合作者所观察到的一些问题提出几点思考和建议,以供电商扶贫工作者和相关方面的学者参考。[方法]该文主要采用文献研究、归纳总结及逻辑推理分析等方法,对上述作用机理及相关问题进行分析。[结果]发展涉农电商能让贫困农户更方便寻找市场销路,获得更稳定的收入,同时也有利于激发贫困户的积极性,提升自身发展能力;但在发展涉农电商时,常常会出现诸如产品质量差、市场营销能力不足、脱贫增收效果不佳、产业开发项目不尊重市场规律等问题。[结论]在贫困地区发展涉农电商时应当重视加强以下6个方面的工作:①严格把控产品质量关;②重视市场营销能力建设;③注重脱贫增收效果;④注重构建以市场需求为导向项目选择机制;⑤充分发挥当地致富领头人的作用;⑥注重当地产业发展人才的培养。     

基于农户参与的河南省农产品配送模式研究

文章在对河南省农产品配送现状进行分析的基础上,阐明实行农产品配送模式农户参与机制改革的必要性,并提出了"农户(农场)+市场"、"农户+经济组织+市场"及"农户+龙头企业+市场"等3种农户参与下的农产品配送模式,同时对其配送绩效进行了逐一评述,旨在给予农户在农产品配送中以充分自主选择权的同时,增强农产品配送模式的包容性和连续性,为农产品流通现代化提供必要的政策制度保障。同时针对农产品流通模式的内涵和类型进行系统论述,并从配送模式的评价角度研究了农产品流通模式的比较与选择问题。结果表明:农户自身的特征对农户的农产品流通模式的选择具有显著影响,不仅农户特征的不同对流通模式的影响不同,而且农户特征对不同农产品流通模式的影响程度也不相同。并通过借鉴其他国家和地区成功的农产品配送模式,对河南省农产品的现存配送模式提出创新性意见,以期为河南省农产品配送模式革新、河南省农户经济收入提高、河南省农业可持续发展提供参考。     

我国家庭农场发展现状及其对策研究

家庭农场是在我国农村现有基础上建立的,是新型的农业生产主体,是实行农业现代化的金钥匙。家庭农场的出现,既增加农民的收入,又可以实现农业生产的产业化。文章运用文献分析和实地调研相结合的研究方法,分析了当前我国家庭农场的发展现状,即我国家庭农场呈现出经营规模不同、经营品种不同、经营效益较好、具有市场竞争力等明显特征。家庭农场的发展面临大好机遇,但是也存在土地产权认识不明晰、资金短缺、劳动力缺乏等瓶颈问题。并提出明确家庭农场认定标准、引导土地向家庭农场流转、农民的技术培训、完善农业保险、政府给予一定的资金政策等建议,旨在为各地区制定发展家庭农场政策提供参考。     

THE EROSION OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN AN OIL ECONOMY: THE CASE OF NIGERIA

After several years of oil production and exports with attendant revenue influx, the sector is yet to make a significant impact in Nigeria's economic growth. Contrary to the hopes and expectations that greeted the oil discovery, the non-oil export sector of the economy, more specifically the agricultural sector, has been declining consistently with further increases in oil exports. This paper is intended to provide an empirical analysis of an aspect of structural change that has taken place in the Nigerian economy. The hypothesis investigated is that an increase in oil exports results in higher relative prices on non-tradeable to tradeable goods and an appreciation of the domestic currency, hence a loss of the competitiveness of the agricultural export sector in the international market. This phenomenon, popularly known as the ‘Dutch disease’, has been vigorously discussed in the United Kingdom, Norway and the Netherlands, has also received much attention from Australian economists in relation to minerals.     

Smallholder cooperatives and agricultural performance in Rwanda: do organizational differences matter?

Agricultural policies in Rwanda focus on agricultural intensification and increased market orientation of the smallholder farm sector. Cooperatives are seen as key vehicles in this, but little is known about their effectiveness to achieve these goals. In this article, we analyze the impact of cooperative membership on the agricultural performance of rural households in Rwanda. We use cross‐sectional survey data, collected in 2012, to analyze the impact of cooperative membership on different agricultural performance indicators, including indicators on agricultural intensification, market orientation, farm revenue, and income. We use several econometric techniques to deal with potential selection bias in estimating the impact of cooperative membership, including a proxy variable method based on a willingness to pay measure and propensity score matching methods. We find that cooperative membership in general has a positive impact on farm performance but these effects are driven by specific types of cooperatives.     

THE COST OF FOOD MARKETING*

There exists a wealth of statistical data in the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food on agricultural structure and production, and on the consumption of food, much of which is well known and readily available to research workers outside. But much less is known about the manufacturing and distribution costs of food between the farm gate and the consumer. The purpose of this paper is to present aggregate data relating to food marketing, in much the same way that earlier contributions, notably to this Journal, have covered agricultural output and net income, and farm structure. Changes in the food marketing sector since the end of rationing are briefly set out and, following discussion of some of the conceptual problems involved, estimates are presented of the value added to food between farm or port and the retail level, and of the magnitude of the flows within the sector     

Effects of Increasing Agricultural Productivity in a Multisectoral Model for the Philippines

This paper investigates empirically the economy-wide effects of agricultural productivity increases in the Philippines, reporting the results of a quantitative analysis based on a general equilibrium framework. A multisectoral, price endogenous model of the Philippine economy is employed, emphasizing not only agriculture but also other production sectors with which it closely interacts, as well as the distinction between rural and urban households in their income generation and consumption patterns. Among other findings, the differential effects on the real income of rural households vis-a-vis urban households arising from increased productivity in the various components of the agricultural production sector are striking. The resulting improvements in the trade balance and national income, among other macroeconomic variables, are also relatively significant. Moreover, there are significant differences in the economy-wide effects among the four sectors of food and agriculture distinguished in the study. Particularly interesting is the highly favorable impact of rising productivity in the food processing sector on agricultural crop production and rural income, a linkage effect that has not received much attention in the development literature.     

农业生产性服务业对城乡收入差距的影响及路径研究基于珠江—西江经济带的中介效应检验

[目的]通过分析珠江—西江经济带农业生产性服务业与城乡收入差距之间的关系,农业生产性服务业对城乡收入差距既有直接作用又有间接作用。[方法]文章从产业结构调整与城镇化这两个角度,利用2005—2018年珠江—西江经济带市级层面的面板数据,采用LSDV估计方法与IV-GMM估计方法检验了农业生产性服务业对城乡收入差距的影响机制。[结果]发展农业生产性服务业既能通过降低农业生产成本、提高生产效率直接缩小城乡收入差距,又能通过产业结构调整以及推进城镇化进程这两个间接途径来缩小城乡收入差距。[结论]农业生产性服务业对城乡收入差距的直接与间接影响显著。带域内各城市要明确发展定位,充分利用其资源优势有效衔接农业生产性服务业,优化产业布局;加快推进带域内各城市城镇化进程,为城乡收入差距的缩小创造条件,充分发挥产业结构调整与城镇化的中介作用。     

湖北省新型城镇化条件下农民收入增长研究

我国农民收入来源主要包括农业经营性收入、务工收入及其他收入。城镇化发展是农民增收的重要动力之一,十八大以来新型城镇化被提到一个新高度。新型城镇化要求把生态文明理念融入城镇化过程,实现集约、智能、绿色、低碳的发展目标。新型城镇化条件下,农民增收能否持续、高速的发展成为新的课题。文章对湖北省部分市(县)采取实地查勘、问卷调查与走访农户、搜集资料、逻辑分析的方法就湖北省新型城镇化条件下农民增收进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)新型城镇化促进农业现代化发展,提高农产品产值,减少农业产业链内耗,实现农民增收;(2)新型城镇构建农民市民化社会构架,提高了农民工资收入与社会福利收入,增加了农民收入;(3)新型城镇化改变发展模式,增加农民资产性收入与提升了农民生活品质,实现更高水平的增收。研究结论:新型城镇化是未来农民增收最主要的推动力。     

Farm succession,occupational choice and farm adaptation at the rural-urban interface: The case of Italian horticultural farms

The survival of family farming in Europe is a crucial issue, as it assures landscape maintenance in marginal areas and provides transmission and accumulation of site-specific knowledge in agricultural activity. Using data from a sample of Italian horticultural farms, we explored the multiple forces driving farm succession in a high value added sector. In addition to the traditional factors examined in the literature (farm, farmer and family features), we treated the farm transfer choice as the complement of the decision to migrate out of the agricultural sector, testing the effects of local labour market conditions (employment, income gap between farm and non-farm sector) and population density around the farm, as a proxy of rural-urban interface relationships. It has been shown that both traditional factors and territorial and labour market conditions influence the probability of farm succession. Interestingly labour market conditions exerted an effect in line with occupational choice theory only in less inhabited areas; in more densely populated regions a rural-urban linkage effect seems to prevail, creating an environment that fosters succession of young horticultural farmers. Peri-urban areas may thus be a favourable location for professional and specialised horticultural farms, as well as multifunctional and de-specialised ones, if their assets are properly protected against farmland subtraction. More generally, these findings confirm the validity of a more comprehensive approach toward farm succession, which takes occupational choice theory and rural-urban farm adaptation strategies into account.     

我国现代农业发展的演进分析

社会的发展阶段是客观存在的.同样,现代农业也将随着社会的不断进步呈现不同的阶段特征.本文在诸多专家学者已有研究成果的基础上,根据各时期的政策背景农业生产形势,结合《全国现代农业发展规划(2011 ～2015年)》提出的粮食综合生产能力、农村居民人均纯收入、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积等几大现代农业发展量化指标,将我国新中国成立以来现代农业的发展历程划分为经济复苏阶段、高速起步阶段、波动上升阶段、整顿调整阶段和全面提升阶段,并概括描述了每一阶段的主要特征.通过对现代农业的历程分析,进一步提出了我国现代农业的发展的不协调状态的4种表现,即粮食连年增产与农业基础设施落后的不协调、农民纯收入的增长速度与来自农业生产的收入增长速度不协调、农业GDP在国家整个GDP中的比重与国家用于发展现代农业的资金比重不协调、农业科技进步率的连年提高与农业劳动力的素质下降不协调.     

Stability of Farm Income and the Role of Nonfarm Income in U.S. Agriculture

This study measures the variability in real net farm income in the U.S. agricultural sector and per farm and determines if variability has diminished over 1933 to 1999. Second, the role of nonfarm income in reducing the variability in total farm household income is examined. Results indicate that the variability in real net farm income in the sector and at the farm level has not diminished and that nonfarm income has helped to reduce the variability in total farm household income.     

The Effects of Direct Payments on Technical Efficiency of Irish Beef Farms: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

The 2003 Mid‐Term Review of the CAP sought to refocus the EU's farm support policy to foster a more competitive and market‐orientated agricultural sector. The foundation of this reform comprised the introduction of decoupled payments to farmers, replacing the EU's previous system of supports that were directly linked to production of designated crops and livestock. This paper explores the effect of coupled payments and their subsequent replacement by decoupled support, on the technical efficiency of specialist beef farms in Ireland. Given the high reliance of beef farmers in Ireland on CAP payments, the decoupling of payments has been especially important for the sector. A stochastic production frontier is estimated using a panel dataset comprising detailed accountancy data for Irish beef farms between the years 2000 and 2013. Our results indicate that technical efficiency in the beef farming sector has been consistently poor, with an average efficiency score of only 0.53 during the period analysed. However, we found that direct income received in the form of coupled payments had a positive impact on farm efficiency, and that this positive effect was maintained after their replacement with decoupled income support.