Asset diversification,firm risk,and risk-based capital requirements in banking

The implications of diversification by firms for risk has been raised particularly in connection with conglomerate mergers. This issue is of special interest in banking now because of a recently implemented policy — risk-based capital guidelines. This study presents results of an empirical investigation into the relationship between diversification of a bank's financial assets and indicators of the risk of insolvency. Results indicate that financial asset diversification, as well as geographic diversification, are related to lower risk.     

The impact of diversification strategy on risk-return performance

This study examines the impact of diversification strategy on risk and return in diversified firms. Following an assessment of previous research on strategic risk, relationships between risk, return, and diversification strategy are hypothesized. Regression analysis shows that differences in risk-return performance among diversified firms are more closely associated with structural factors associated with markets and businesses than with the particular diversification strategy chosen. Returns also influence the choice of diversification strategles which, in turn, do not get rewarded with higher profits. A curvilinear risk-return relationship is also observed which is consistent with previous theoretical suggestions. Implications for the strategic management of risk are then drawn.     

Conglomerates revisited

Recent studies of corporate restructuring have arrived at conclusions that are contradictory when applied to conglomerates. Studies, often based only on manufacturing firms, argue for and against the benefits of conglomerate diversification. This paper reviews the more recent developments in this literature. We then construct a comprehensive sample of conglomerates that allows us to examine changes in conglomerate behavior over the period 1975–84 as manifested in acquisition and divestiture decisions. Our results suggest that conglomerate managers are reducing the complexity of the conglomerate enterprise by decreasing the average number of businesses managed, and by increasing the degree of business-relatedness within the conglomerate enterprise.     

Some evidence on the gains from international diversification for Canadian investors

It is easily demonstrated ex post that international portfolio diversification results in increased returns and reduced risk. However, to determine the value of international diversification as an effective portfolio management strategy, it is necessary to form portfolios based on information available at the time of their composition, and then evaluate the performance of the portfolio in the following months. This is the main focus of our study, which adds several innovations to past research. First, we use daily rates of return on 23 national indices to evaluate the value of international diversification for a Canadian investor. Second, we evaluate the predictive value of the historical variance-covariance matrix vis-à-vis alternative models. Third, we use the Bayes-Stein correction to reduce errors in the historical return vector. Finally, we use a quadratic programming model in order to introduce the effects of constraints on the optimisation process. The results, obtained over the 1986–1989 period, are not in favour of international diversification. Returns on diversified portfolios were often lower than returns on the low-risk Canada market during the low-performance portfolio test periods. In other cases, higher returns on diversified portfolios could not be justified by their higher volatility. It is possible that these results may be partially due to the effects of the market crash in October 1987. Nevertheless, our study brings up many directions for future research. Is international diversification in fact profitable? Is portfolio optimisation appropriate in an international context? Finally, what is the best way to estimate the expected return vector in various markets?     

The Comparison and Selection of Investment Projects: A New Standardized Risk Measure

On the basis of drawdown criterion and investors' target return, a new risk measure called the standardized risk measure is presented in this paper. It is a relative quantity, which defined as the expected loss of value in the required target return divided by the maximum expected loss of value when the probability of failure is guaranteed under the standardized distribution of investment return. The definition is promising and superior to the traditional risk measure in that it readily makes the comparison of different investments be fairly easy and convenient regardless of their currency denominations, given that their return distributions belong to a category with identical standardized distribution.     

Multinationals' diversification and the risk-return trade-off

This paper advances a theoretical rationale to explain Bowman's paradox (1980) that firms with high returns can have low risk. Here we draw on the rich body of international management research and argue that global market diversification, which provides firms with three distinct options and opportunities over domestic firms, can explain the high return-low risk profile. We also argue that no strong theoretical rationale exists in support of either related or unrelated product diversification generating such a favorable risk-return profile. By integrating both the product and the global market dimension of diversification into our analyses and by controlling for the industry effect, this paper sheds new light on the relationship between corporate diversification and the risk-return tradeoff. The results of this research, which are based on the diversification experiences of 125 multinationals, reveal the strikingly important, though so far overlooked, role that global market diversification plays in the joint management of corporate risk and return. Global market diversification here reflects both the multiplicity of international market areas in which a firm operates and the distribution pattern of a firm's industries across these multiple areas.     

Does good governance prevent bad strategy? A study of corporate governance,financial diversification,and value creation by French corporations, 2000–2006

Building on and extending prior research, we propose a comprehensive framework which posits that free cash flow moderates the impact of corporate governance on financial diversification. We argue that because it increases CEO perceived risk, alignment devices increase rather than decrease financial diversification. In a sample of 59 publicly traded French corporations during 2000–2006, we show that financial diversification negatively impacts shareholder return and firm value. We obtain support for several of our hypotheses: at high levels of free cash flow, CEO variable compensation increases financial diversification, whereas chairman/CEO non‐duality reduces it. In contrast, independent directors increase financial diversification at low values of free cash flow (although weakly). We also find that ownership concentration only reduces financial diversification when free cash flow is low.Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Predictability of International Real Estate Markets, Exchange Rate Risks and Diversification Consequences

International real estate related securities are investigated to see whether they offer any incremental diversification benefits over foreign stocks using mean-variance analysis together with a multifactor latent variable model. Diversification benefits are found to be primarily driven by unanticipated returns which are partially driven by changes in exchange rate risk. Although exchange rate risk accounts for a larger portion of the return fluctuation in real estate related securities relative to common stocks, international real estate securities provide some incremental diversification benefits over common stocks even if currency risks are hedged.     

Systematic Risk and Diversification in the Equity REIT Market

This paper employs stock market-based data to examine the systematic risk and diversification properties of publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs). A unique data sample is created by combining firm return data with information on their property type holdings and the location of their investments. The systematic risk of equity REITs appears to vary by the type of property in which they invest, with beta being significantly higher for retail-oriented REITs than for REITs owning industrial and warehouse properties. In addition, the stock market data provides no evidence that REIT diversification across property types or broad geographic regions actually results in meaningful diversification as reflected in a standard market-based measure—the R ² from a simple market model regression.     

我国商业银行的多元化经营分析

本文运用企业多元化经营战略理论，引入Entropy指标衡量多元化程度，运用面板数据分析的方法对我国商业银行的多元化经营的绩效进行分析的结论是．我国商业银行多元化经营对经济绩效产生了正向的影响，但影响系数很小；主业水平和规模大小影响商业银行多元化经营的绩效；我国商业银行的多元化经营都未能分散风险，而且股份制商业银行分散风险的效果比国有商业银行差。     

Diversification strategies,business cycles and economic performance

Two major diversification strategies of firms are examined: diversification into related businesses and diversification into unrelated businesses. The first strategy attempts to exploit operating synergies. In the second, the firm attempts to gain financial benefits from its ability to increase leverage due to a greater stability of cash flows. The study utilizes a large sample affirms to assess empirically the benefits and costs of these two diversification strategies by developing a new measure of diversification across business cycles and economic sectors. This new measure is compared with Berry—Herfindahl type measures of total diversification and recent measures of diversification into related businesses. The results indicate that pure financial diversification is associated with (a) more stable cash flows, i.e. lower operating risk; (b) increased levels of leverage; and (c) lower profitability. These observations are in accord with the theory. We also reaffirm that firms which diversify into related businesses have, on the average, higher profitability than non-diversified firms, although these results are not always statistically significant.     

The Performance of Commercial Mortgages

This study examines the return characteristics of a large, well-diversified commercial mortgage portfolio. Mortgage-specific cash-flow histories are constructed for 2,480 loans originated over the period 1974 through 1990, and a contingent-claims approach to pricing risky debt is used to estimate inter-temporal market values. Quarterly holding-period returns are compared across selected mortgage groups and to alternate asset classes. Our findings suggest that both mortgage returns and volatility of return are comparable to those of other forms of fixed-income assets over the study period. Implied property price volatility is found to average 17%, a result significantly higher than reported in earlier studies. While mortgage returns are found to vary by property type and region of origin, cross correlation of returns is found to be high, illustrating the systematic effect of interest rates on the performance of commercial mortgages over the period 1974 through 1990. However, an increase in credit risk in the latter years of the study suggests that diversification may be a worthwhile objective for holders of these assets. We do not find evidence to suggest that abnormal returns were earned on commercial mortgage portfolios over the study period.     

Construct validity of an objective (entropy) categorical measure of diversification strategy

This study measures the construct validity of an objective (entropy) approach to measurement of diversification strategy. Results indicate strong convergent, discriminant and criterion-related validity for the entropy measure of diversification. In particular, support for the entropy measure of diversification strategy was demonstrated through associations with the Rumelt subjective measure of diversification (convergent validity); size, debt and R&D intensity (discriminant validity); and accounting and market-based performance (criterion-related validity). Using structural equations modeling, the study reports strong standardized validity coefficients with a diversification factor (0.87 for the entropy and 0.94 for Rumelt's measures). The objective (SIC count) measure exhibits a low standardized validity coefficient (0.44) with the diversification factor. In a discriminant validity test, 70 percent of the variance in the entropy measure is unique to diversification while only 2.8 percent and 7.6 percent are unique to leverage and size, respectively. However, only 6.3 percent of the variance in the SIC count measure is unique to diversification. The study suggests that it may be more appropriate to use the diversification factor with both the entropy and Rumelt subjective measures for maximum accuracy (however, using either alone would be acceptable). Also, the results suggest that the SIC measure may be appropriate in more limited circumstances.     

民营科技企业的融资问题研究

民营科技企业具有高投入、高风险、高收益的特点。尽管民营科技企业的融资方式多种多样,但融资难仍是制约民营科技企业发展的瓶颈,民营科技企业要解决融资难题,必须寻求融资方式的多样化,寻求广泛的联合和合作。     

An analysis of the profitability of businesses of diversified companies

This paper presents empirical evidence on the relationship between diversification and profitability. The data set used in the analysis includes data on 55 U.S. corporations who participated in phase II of the project on Profit Impact of Market Strategy (PIMS).Following upon the pioneering work of Carl Kaysen, complex indices of diversification are developed. Cross sectional regression analyses indicate a statistically significant positive association between measures of corporate diversification and measures of business profitability (return on investment or profit margin on sales). These relationships are insensitive to variations in the treatment of outliers, and do not appear to be accounting artifacts.     

Diversification, Concentration and Economic Performance: Korean Business Groups

The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically some of therelationships involving corporate diversification, concentration and economic performance for agroup of 25 of the largest Korean chaebols or business groups over the period 1985–1995. UsingHerfindahl–Hirschman indices of inter-industry diversification and intra-group member firm concentration,our results indicate that increased conglomerate diversification does not affect chaebol profitswhereas changes in internal member firm concentration do. Of particular interest with respect to bothdiversification and concentration are our findings that a quadratic relationship exists between groupprofits and the number of member firms, with both smaller and larger chaebols having higher profitsthan intermediate size chaebols. A similar relationship also exists with respect to group size measuredin terms of total assets. Since the number of member firms is included as an explanatory variable, ourresults imply that profitable chaebols expand primarily within their existing industries ratherthan by adding firms in new markets.     

The Viability of Trade Union Organization: A Bargaining Unit Analysis

The paper develops a model of trade union behaviour based on the concept of the viable bargaining unit. Viability rests on five conditions: membership level, service level, membership participation, employer recognition, and facilities. Unions are seen as portfolios of viable and inviable bargaining units. Six propositions are derived, concerning union scale, growth, the impact of statutory recognition provisions, the emergence of conglomerate unions, governance structures, and relations with employers. Employer dependence is central, and a simple game‐theoretic approach is used to discuss employer co‐operation. Viability at the union level is achieved by portfolio diversification and employer co‐operation.     

Regional Economic Stability and Mortgage Default Risk in the Netherlands

This paper investigates the relationship between regional economic diversification and stability, and residential mortgage default risk in the Netherlands. To describe and measure regional economic diversity and stability, methods from both the regional economics and the industrial economics literature are used. All measures are based on regional employment characteristics. Mortgage default rates were obtained from a database of the population of insured mortgage defaults in the Netherlands from 1983 through 1990. To test the relationship between the measures and mortgage default risk, cross sectional Seemingly Unrelated Regression was used. The paper concludes that the employed measures explain regional mortgage default rates to a significant extent, and that stability measures outperform diversity measures.     

The Effect of Alternative Return Measures on Restricted Mixed-Asset Portfolios

A restricted portfolio is constructed which includes NYSE common stocks, corporate bonds, government bonds, small capitalization common stocks, residential real estate and farmland and returns for each of four different tax brackets (0%, 15%, 30%, 45%). Next, three alternative measures of rates of return for residential real estate and farmland are used. Finally, since some researchers believe that standard risk measures (variance and standard deviation) do not capture the total risk in real estate, the risk for the real estate returns is increased five times while the returns are held constant. The twenty–four optimal portfolios (four tax brackets with two measures of risk and three measure of return for residential real estate and farmland) are then derived. These results are then compared and contrasted to each other to ascertain the change in sensitivity of the optimal portfolios due to different tax rates, different rates–of–return estimates and different risk estimates.     

The strategy-shareholder value relationship: Testing temporal stability across market cycles

This study examines the stability of the relationship between diversification and shareholder value across contiguous time periods, organized so as to highlight three distinct market cycles. By defining value as a two-dimensional construct, separating the concurrent economic phenomena of cycle and trend, and controlling for other factors that influence risk and return, this study finds that the best way to protect shareholder value against economic downturns is to diversify in a manner such that ‘all of one's eggs are in similar baskets’.