The impact of floods on the adoption rate of high-yielding rice varieties in Bangladesh

This paper analyses econometrically the impact of floods on the rate of adoption of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) of rice in Bangladesh. It uses a small model combining a modified logistic adoption function with a model of the process generating expectations errors by the farmers which encompasses most other expectation hypotheses. Using pooled cross-section and time-series data at the district level, the econometric results show a significant negative impact of expected flood damage on the HYV adoption rate of ‘aman’ rice. Moreover, it is shown that the adoption of HYV ‘boro’ rice is governed by essentially the same equation.     

SOCIAL COSTS OF REGULATION OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY: AN APPLICATION TO ANIMAL WELFARE REGULATION OF THE VICTORIAN PIG INDUSTRY*

The effects of state government regulation of primary industry are modelled. An analytical framework is presented for estimating the costs of regulation in terms of changes in economic surplus. The model permits trade between regions of the total market. An illustrative application of the framework is applied to proposed animal welfare regulation of the Victorian pig industry. Some regulations that may provide large gains with regard to the welfare of farm animals involve only small social costs compared to the gross value of production of the industry. Conversely, other regulations that potentially confer only small gains in animal welfare impose large social costs. The distribution of these costs is important. In general, consumers lose, as do some producers. Other producers gain. In some cases, producers in aggregate gain from regulation. Major beneficiaries, such as advocates of animal welfare regulations, are likely to bear little of the cost of regulation.     

An Evaluation of Indian Government Rice Policy in Tamil Nadu

The Indian government procures rice from wholesalers or producers at a price below the market price and then distributes it to low-income consumers at a subsidized price. This paper uses a simulataneous equations econometric model to evaluate the effects of this policy on supply/demand of rice in the state of Tamil Nadu, between 1956 and 1985. Results show that production is more responsive to power for irrigation and fertilizer prices than to output prices. Because supply is inelastic, producers bear the burden of the ‘tax’ imposed by procurement even though rice is procured from the wholesaler. Rice distributed by the government displaces rice demanded in the open market, and thus the government distribution of rice has not increased the total consumption of rice.     

Farm-level adaptation to climate change in Western Bangladesh: An analysis of adaptation dynamics,profitability and risks

Using long-term district-level climate data and a case study from a drought-prone village in western Bangladesh, this research explored trends in climate change, and analysed farmers’ adaptation dynamics, profitability and risks. This is the first study of its kind for drought-prone areas in Bangladesh.Farmers perceived climate changes included increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall which were as consistent with the trends of Chuadanga climate records. Farmers’ adaptation measures included changes in cropping systems, cropping calendars, crop varieties, agronomic practices, crop diversification and improved animal husbandry. Reducing environmental stress, ensuring self-sufficiency in staple crops (mainly rice) and other crop production practices, and enhancing economic viability of farm enterprises have underpinned these adaptations. Off-farm and non-farm wage employment, temporary migration, self-employment and educating children, constituted the core non-farm adaptation strategies.Emerging cropping systems like maize/cucumber and maize/stem amaranth/rice were economically more viable than the traditional rice/rice and rice/maize systems. Despite some uncertainties, farming was preferred to off-farm work, generating higher returns to labour for all cropping systems. Limited access to stress-tolerant varieties, extension services and affordable agricultural credit, combined with high production costs, variability in crop yields and output prices, are the main barriers to adaptation. Stronger agricultural research and support services, affordable credit, community-focussed farming education and training are critically important for effective adaptation to climate change.     

Impact of land fragmentation and resource ownership on productivity and efficiency: The case of rice producers in Bangladesh

The paper analyzes the impact of land fragmentation and ownership of resources on productivity and technical efficiency in rice production in Bangladesh using farm level survey data. Results reveal that land fragmentation has a significant detrimental effect on productivity and efficiency as expected. The elasticity estimates of land fragmentation reveal that a 1% increase in land fragmentation reduces rice output by 0.05% and efficiency by 0.03%. On the other hand, ownership of key resources (land, family labour, and draft animals) significantly increases efficiency. The mean elasticity estimates reveal that a 1% increase in family labour and owned draft animal improve technical efficiency by 0.04% and 0.03%, respectively. Also, a 1% increase in the adoption of modern technology improves efficiency by 0.04%. The mean technical efficiency in rice production is estimated at 0.91 indicating little scope to improve rice production per se using existing varieties. Policy implications include addressing structural causes of land fragmentation (e.g., law of inheritance and political economy of agrarian structure), building of physical capital (e.g., land and livestock resources), improvements in extension services and adoption of modern rice technology.     

Technical change in Senegal's irrigated rice sector: impact assessment under uncertainty

This paper addresses the prospects for technical change in the irrigated rice sector of Senegal, and measures ex‐ante the economic returns to recent research efforts. In 1994, three new rice varieties were released to farmers in the Senegal River Valley (SRV), the major irrigated rice region in Senegal. The productivity advantage of the new varieties is based primarily on early maturity, which permits double‐cropping. (The seeds are also higher yielding than existing cultivars.) We use a conventional [Akino and Hayami (1975), Am. J. Agric. Econ. 57, 1–10] partial‐equilibrium model adapted to the Senegalese situation, to assess the social benefits of research and compare those to its costs in calculating the internal rate of return (IRR). To account for uncertainty regarding the future values of model variables we use simulation which allows us to generate a distribution of all possible outcomes of the IRR. We find that rice research is almost certain to have a very high payoff over the 1995–2004 period. The expected value of the IRR is calculated to be 121% per year, with a 97.5% probability that it lies above annual capital costs of 18%. ©2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

INDUCED INNOVATION IN UNITED STATES FIELD CROPS, 1939-78

During the past four decades, United States field crop production has been transformed by the mechanical and fertiliser revolutions. In this study crop-specific estimates of the technical progress parameters that represent these changes are used to test the microeconomic theory of induced innovation. Tests based on the land/labour ratio, derived from a reformulation of the Hayami and Ruttan model, entirely support the inducement hypothesis and suggest that the partial failure of previous empirical investigations resulted from specification problems.     

Agricultural diversification and integrated pest management in Bangladesh

We study factors associated with a shift toward diversified, high‐valued vegetable crops and the incentives associated with the use of IPM methods for vegetable producers in Bangladesh. The primary objective is to measure how IPM technologies affect the crop and technology choices of low‐income rice farmers. A three‐season household optimisation model is used to study crop and technology choice under price and yield uncertainty. The model is parameterised using data from vegetable farms and experimental IPM trials conducted in Bangladesh. Simulation results show that access to IPM technology and IPM availability combined with access to credit increase household welfare and lead to higher rates of vegetable adoption. Off‐farm employment opportunities work against vegetable cultivation and IPM use by risk‐averse farmers. Implications for policy and extension efforts are highlighted.     

Rice demand in Tanzania: an empirical analysis

We investigate the consumer side of the Tanzania rice market with the primary objective of estimating price elasticities of imported and domestically produced rice. Previous studies of the rice market in Tanzania claim that domestic rice is implicitly protected by consumer preference of its perceived better quality. However, rice producers increasingly complain that imported rice adversely impacts the price of domestic rice. Using household consumer survey data, we estimate price and expenditure elasticities of imported rice, domestic rice, and maize to assess their substitutability in the Tanzanian diet. Our results show that Tanzanian consumers have a preference for domestic rice varieties with weak substitutability between domestic and imported rice varieties.     

Yield and income effects of rice varieties with tolerance of multiple abiotic stresses: the case of green super rice (GSR) and flooding in the Philippines

With the increasing frequency of extreme climatic events, the new challenge is to develop rice varieties that are tolerant of drought, water submergence, and salinity. There are now new high‐yielding green super rice (GSR) cultivars developed at the International Rice Research Institute with increased tolerance to multiple abiotic stresses. But a clear understanding of the economic benefits of these varieties under farmers’ production environments is not yet fully understood. In this article, we assess the yield and income effects of GSR rice varieties using a two‐year panel data from one province. We use matched samples from a propensity score matching method and a fixed‐effects model within a difference‐in‐difference (DID) framework to estimate the yield effects. The income effects were evaluated using the parameter estimates from the yield/production function model. The results of the ordinary least squares and DID fixed‐effects regressions reveal significant and positive effects of GSR varieties on yield. The most important finding is that the benefits from these varieties are strongly felt when there is flooding. This evidence was not as robust when matched samples were used. However, it is clear that the yield benefits from GSR varieties could improve rice food security and help alleviate poverty in the country.     

Impact of Risk on HYV Adoption in Bangladesh

The objectives of this paper are to develop a measure of risk aversion based on the safety-first principle. The risk coefficient for a large number of farmers was positive indicating the tendency towards gambling in Bangladesh agriculture. Farmers who were near subsistence income (disaster level of income) tended to choose riskier crops such as HYV rice. The risk-aversion variable was highly correlated with demographic and socioeconomic variables. Large holders of land tended to be relatively more risk-averse than small holders of land and area allocated to HYV proportionally declined with increases in holding size. A three-equation model on HYV adoption decisions, fertilizer and hired labour was estimated with a risk-aversion variable based on the safety-first principle, and expected and significant signs were obtained with the risk-aversion variable in HYV and hired labour equations.     

Demand for food in Myanmar (Burma)

Aggregate quarterly time series data from 1975 to 1987 on government procurement prices and open (black) market prices were used in estimating an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and double-log models for consumption of foodstuffs in Myanmar. The results from the AIDS model were superior to those from the double-log models. The estimated income elasticity of demand for non-meat foodstuffs was high, even for low-quality rice, which has been shown to be an inferior good in other Asian countries. The income elasticities for the non-cereals (groundnut oil, sesame oil, pulses, potato and onion) are positive and less than one. Contrary to expectation, the income elasticities for all meat items are low. Own-price elasticities for most foodstuffs were less than one. The estimated cross-price elasticities indicate the complementary nature of the basic food items to rice. A brief analysis of the effects of taxing Myanmarese rice exports and subsidising consumers indicated that there are net costs to government, unevenly distributed welfare gains to consumers and welfare losses to farmers.     

Resource use efficiency under self‐selectivity: the case of Bangladeshi rice producers

The paper jointly evaluates the determinants of switching to modern rice and its productivity while allowing for production inefficiency at the level of individual producers. Model diagnostics reveal that serious selection bias exists, justifying the use of a sample selection framework in stochastic frontier models. Results revealed that modern variety selection decisions are influenced positively by the availability of irrigation and gross return from rice and negatively by a rise in the relative wage of labour. Adoption of modern rice is higher in underdeveloped regions. Seasonality and geography/location does matter in adoption decisions. Stochastic production frontier results reveal that land, labour and irrigation are the significant determinants of modern rice productivity. Decreasing returns to scale prevail in modern rice production. The mean level of technical efficiency (MTE) is estimated at 0.82. Results also demonstrate that the conventional stochastic frontier model significantly overestimates inefficiency by three points (MTE = 0.79). Policy implications include measures to increase access to irrigation, tenurial reform and keeping rice prices high to boost farm returns and offset the impact of a rise in the labour wage which will synergistically increase the adoption of modern rice as well as farm productivity.     

Liberalization of agricultural input markets in Bangladesh: process,impact, and lessons

The study takes a historical perspective to trace the path of evolutionary reforms in agricultural input markets of Bangladesh. It estimates the magnitude of the impact of these reforms on rice production, the most important crop in Bangladesh agriculture. It is estimated that the production of rice could have been 20-32% lower than the level of 1992/1993, depending on the rice price that would have prevailed under alternative scenarios. The 20% credit to market reform relates to a real rice price level 19% higher than the actual 1992/1993 prices. The 32% credit to reform relates to the actual 1992/1943 price levels. The lower contribution of reform (20%) to increased production implies a loss to consumers not accounted for in the production benefit of reform, while the higher contribution (32%) of reform entails no loss to consumers. The bottom-line conclusion is that Bangladesh, without the market reforms described in the paper, would have reverted back to the situation of regular food crisis and high rice prices, as was the case historically. The analysis of the process of reform provides interesting lessons for developing countries. A gradual process based on a well-designed sequencing of various steps of market reform, particularly in the case of fertilizer, was a crucial factor for success. Careful monitoring during the period of transition is another crucial factor that has to be institutionalized in the system. Second generation problems of market reforms, particularly the emergence of an oligopolistic market structure, are possible and warrant a cautionary watch.     

Cultural norms,economic incentives and women’s labour market behaviour: empirical insights from Bangladesh

This paper sets out to explore a seeming puzzle in the context of Bangladesh. There is a considerable body of evidence from the country pointing to the positive impact of paid work on women’s position within family and community. Yet, according to official statistics, not only has women’s labour force participation risen very slowly over the years, but also a sizeable majority of women in the labour force are in unpaid family labour. We draw on an original survey of over 5000 women from eight different districts in Bangladesh to explore some of the factors that lead to women’s selection into the labour force, and into different categories of labour market activity, with a view to gaining a better understanding of the combination of cultural norms and economic considerations that explain these findings.     

Effect of modern rice varieties and irrigation on household income distribution in Nepalese villages

Since high-yielding modern rice varieties (MVs) are adopted only in favorable production environments, significant regional productivity differentials have emerged in Nepal. This study explores the distributional consequences of such differential MV adoption based on an intensive survey of favorable and unfavorable villages. We found that MV adoption increased returns to land but decreased family labor earnings from rice production, as it facilitated the substitution of hired for family labor. As a result, the differential MV adoption did not significantly worsen the household income distribution according to the results of the counterfactual Gini decomposition analysis.     

Does a “Blue Revolution” help the poor? Evidence from Bangladesh

The rapid growth in aquaculture production, globally and in Bangladesh is well documented. Over 2000–2010, per capita production of aquaculture grew 76%, while the consumer price of fish declined 45%. Previous studies have suggested pro‐poor effects of aquaculture based on fish production and consumption patterns. This study attempts to quantify the contribution of aquaculture to income growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh, using household survey data and a microsimulation approach based on an expanded version of Deaton's concept of net benefit ratio. We estimate that aquaculture's contribution to income growth between 2000 and 2010 was 2.1%, including both price and quantity effects. This income growth was translated into poverty reduction of 1.7 percentage points. Although these estimates seem small, they represent almost 10% of the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh during the first decade of the 21st century. Put differently, of the 18 million Bengalis who escaped poverty during 2000–2010, about 1.8 million of them managed to do so because of the rapid growth in aquaculture, which contributed to rural income while making fish more accessible to consumers.     

Modern rice technology and regional wage differentials in the Philippines

Fear has been widely expressed that the modern rice varieties have created large disparities in regional income distribution, as the productivity gap between favorable and unfavorable rice-production environments widened due to differential technology adoption throughout South and Southeast Asia over the last two decades. Technology affects the income of farm population directly through its effects on productivity and factor use, and indirectly through its effect on factor prices. In particular, the ultimate distributional impact of modern varieties will critically depend on the interregional labor-market adjustments through migration in response to regional wage differentials created by the differential technology adoption, since labor is the main resource of the majority of the rural population. We studied favorable and unfavorable rice-growing villages in the Philippines, and found that adoption of modern varieties during the 1970s was positively related to population growth rate. Contrary to popular belief, no association was observed between wage rates and adoption of modern varieties as of 1986. These findings support the hypothesis that the differential adoption of modern rice varieties induced interregional labor migration toward equalization of wage income across different production environments.     

Household Food Demand in Burkina Faso: Implications for Food Policy

Chronic food production deficits since the early 1970s have prompted policymakers of Burkina Faso to emphasize technological research with the goal of increasing the production of the most-consumed locally-grown cereals: sorghum, millet and maize. Meanwhile, urban consumers have been developing preferences for rice and wheat, cereals that are primarily imported. This study estimates demand relationships among food items in Ouagadougou, Burkina. The results of the estimation suggest that prices, income, household composition, education, marital status and urbanization were jointly important in explaining household expenditure allocations. Both local and imported cereal consumption responded positively to an income increase. However, incremental income changes would lead to relatively greater consumption of locally produced cereals by low-income households whereas high-income households would consume relatively more wheat and rice. The household model is then used to demonstrate its relevance in addressing food policy issues, by forecasting the levels of urban grain demand under alternative income and demographic scenarios. With increased production due to advances in technology, the urban demand levels do not exhaust the rural surplus of local cereals, but deficits persist in the rice-wheat sector. The results underscore the importance of technological research since Burkina could become self-sufficient in at least the production of sorghum, millet and maize.