Trends in technology forecasting

The current state of the art of technology forecasting (TF) is critically reviewed. A statement of the aims of TF, which distinguish it from futurology, a brief history and a summary of the basic principles are provided. The last includes the technological escalation, technological succession, societal impact and methods of quantification. TF techniques are divided into two pairs of classes: extrapolative versus normative and single-variable versus multivariable. Each is critically evaluated in terms of its potential applicability and reliability. Substitution analysis, Delphi techniques, cross impact analysis and morphological analysis are treated in some detail.
It is concluded that some form of TF is essential to the success of strategic planning and its use will undoubtedly increase in the future.     

The role of the forecasting process in improving forecast accuracy and operational performance

Several operations decisions are based on proper forecast of future demand. For this reason, manufacturing companies consider forecasting a crucial process for effectively guiding several activities and research has devoted particular attention to this issue. This paper investigates the impact of how forecasting is conducted on forecast accuracy and operational performances (i.e. cost and delivery performances). Attention is here paid on three factors that characterize the forecasting process: whether structured techniques are adopted, whether information from different sources is collected to elaborate forecasts, and the extent to which forecasting is used to support decision-making processes. Analyses are conducted by means of data provided by the fourth edition of the Global Manufacturing Research Group survey. Data was collected from 343 companies belonging to several manufacturing industries from six different countries. Results show that companies adopting a structured forecasting process can improve their operational performances not simply because forecast accuracy increases. This paper highlights the importance of a proper forecasting-process design, that should be coherent with how users intend to exploit forecast results and with the aim that should be achieved, that is not necessarily improving forecast accuracy.     

Long-range forecasting for telecommunications: The role of systems analysis

Three methods of long-range forecasting used in telecommunications demand research are examined. Successful application of each technique depends on the validity of a number of concepts. The author questions whether the concepts used in past research were valid. The technique which he has developed for explicitly modelling the ‘structure’ of systems is described, together with an outline of its use within the areas of technical innovation diffusion, and market place conditions for the acceptability of new services.     

Aspects of technology assessment – the future role of artificial intelligence

The author regrets that the artificial intelligence (Al) community is too inward looking. There is not enough concern with the potential impact of the new technologies of Al on the world outside. For example, it gives too little importance to the needs of the system user. Continued neglect may mean that it will fall victim to the current shake-out in the computer industry. The current tendency to restrict system development to modelling expertise rather than general intelligence is a good sign, reflected in the general adoption of the term knowledge engineering rather than Al.
The author surveys briefly some of the problems that may bar rapid development: secrecy, the gap between Academe and the industrial user and lack of standardisation. For continued progress it will be necessary to concentrate on designing simple systems, studying knowledge acquisition and orientation on the user. The author appeals for a systematic technology assessment programme to devise means of avoiding negative social impacts such as further de-skilling of the workforce, concentration of the know-how into too few hands amd fostering the false idea that Al will eliminate the need for human judgment in decision-making.     

The role of e-marketplaces in supply chain management

Electronic marketplaces (e-marketplaces) have a profound influence on the way in which organizations manage their supply chains. Proponents of the e-marketplace concept suggest that web-based trading systems, such as World Wide Retail Exchange (WWRE) and GlobalNetXchange (GNX), would enable companies to more efficiently buy, sell, and manage their supply chain processes on a global scale. This study investigates the extent to which e-business tools of the e-marketplace are used by channel members in the retail sector for business-to-business supply chain management (SCM). The study is based on a survey involving food service companies, retailers, and wholesalers in the UK. It is shown that the e-marketplace supply chain applications enable the majority of companies to automate transaction-based activities and procurement-related processes rather than strategic supply chain activities. The results also indicate that full participation in e-marketplaces requires companies to integrate their internal and external supply chain activities and share strategic information.     

The role of process plant contractors in transferring technology

Process plant contractors implement and bring to fruition the capital investment programmes in such sectors as chemicals and metals. In undertaking a contract they perform all or a number of the following: plant design and engineering, supply of process technology, procurement of equipment, supervision of construction, plant commissioning, and the arrangement of project finance. Specific characteristics of the industry are the variety of functions undertaken by the contractor and operation on a worldwide basis.
The nature and extent of contractor involvement in transferring technology is determined by a complex interaction of a number of economic and technological factors. The source of technology may be 'in-house', a long term licence agreement, or some specific arrangement to meet a particular enquiry. The paper illustrates the various means for technology transfer drawing on examples from the experience of one contractor.     

The role of multichannel integration in customer relationship management

This paper reviews the strategic role of multichannel integration in customer relationship management (CRM) with the objective proposing a structured approach to the development of an integrated multichannel strategy. Alternative perspectives of CRM are reviewed and it is concluded that adoption of a strategic perspective is essential for success. Multichannel integration is posited as one of the key cross-functional processes in CRM strategy development. The nature of industry channel structure and channel participants, channel options, and alternative channel strategies are reviewed. The customer experience is explored both within and across channels. Analytical tools, such as market structure maps, the customer relationship life cycle, and demand chain analysis, are described. Key steps in building an integrated multichannel strategy are examined. Major challenges faced by enterprises in their adoption of an integrated multichannel approach and areas for future research are discussed.     

The role of design method and process technology in stable outsourcing equilibria

We analyze a model of vertical (dis)integration between manufacturing and design in a monopolistically competitive market. Specialized input manufacturers can serve multiple design firms and the manufacturer-designer pairs negotiate a non-binding contract to share input customization cost and production surplus. Hand-collected data on 387 product lines from 118 semiconductor firms are used to predict the firm’s decision to outsource manufacturing. We find that, for instance, the use of design tools that facilitate collaboration and process technologies that facilitate learning are both positively associated with outsourcing, consistent with the model’s prediction.     

Temporality in business networks: The role of narratives and management technologies

This paper addresses the nature of temporality in business networks. Approaches to temporality generally employ a dualistic approach: time can be understood as social and natural, tensed and untensed, subjective and objective, kairos or chronos, agency and structure. We examine these two approaches and suggest that the problem for situated actors is how to cope with and negotiate with these dualities. This is particularly salient in cases of innovation, when actors attempt to bring about their particular versions of the future facing acute problems of uncertainty. The innovation literature highlights the role of narrative in helping actors to negotiate uncertainty and construct spaces for action in a world of continuous flow. The emphasis on narrative tends to obscure the role of management technologies in anchoring narratives into existing routines and procedures as well as relate these technologies to the untensed world of chronos. Management technologies help stabilise entities and relationship amongst entities in what otherwise is a chaotic world of events and flux.     

信息技术(|T)与项目管理

工程项目的国际化与大型化对工程项目管理提出了高的要求,项目管理与信息技术的结合已是不可阻挡的趋势。文章分析了信息技术与项目管理结合的诸多原因,论述了项目管理中信息技术的发展及信息技术在项目管理中实现的问题。     

儿童玩具召回信息与风险评估管理办法

（国质检质[2008]66号）第一章总则第一条为了规范儿童玩具的召回活动,保证儿童玩具的缺陷调查和风险评估等工作科学、有序地进行,根据《儿童玩具召回管理规定》（以下简称《规定》）,制定本实施办法。第二条国家质量监督检验检疫总局（以下简称国家质检总局）在职责范围内负责统一组织协调儿童玩具召回的监督管理工作。     

The cultural milieu of management: A comparative study of the role of management in ASEAN

The role of a business school and form of management education in any country must depend on the specific role of management in the economy. This, in turn, depends on the milieu or business ambience in which management must operate. A set of types of milieu can be distinguished for ASEAN countries which form a sequence approximately correlated with the process of modernisation. The different tasks and required traits for management in the various milieus are discussed and some implications for management schools and education noted.     

Nature of innovation and technology management in system companies

Competition in the industries that develop complex products (such as aircraft engines and radar) depends on the integration of organizational systems as well as the pace of technological change.
Companies in these industries can be regarded as 'system companies'. A framework and taxonomy are developed to indicate the characteristics and types of companies and to understand how organizational learning and integration take place. This makes it easier for companies to anticipate strategic change and some implications of this kind are described.     

煤炭设计企业技术管理应注意的问题

煤炭设计企业技术管理同其他生产单位相比有其特殊性,那就是既要对设计负责,还要对施工、设备安装以及建设单位的正常生产负责。又由于工程项目的设计周期相对工程建设周期要短,而且处于前期关键环节,所以,设计组织的科学性、合理性和可操作性尤为重要。因此,技术管理的控制点和有效性是衡量企业技术发展和技术进步的重要标准,是企业可持续发展的技术