中国-东盟自由贸易区框架下重新认识东盟汽车市场

在中国-东盟自由贸易区CAFTA正式启动的宏观背景下,本文对东盟四国汽车市场进行详细市场需求、总量和结构分析.东盟4个创始国开始进入或是即将进入汽车大规模普及阶段,具备了发展汽车产业的有利条件.东南亚金融危机过后泰国取代马来西亚迅速成长为东盟第一大汽车生产国和出口国;马来西亚汽车产业竞争力不断弱化趋势引发我们对国民车和进口替代汽车产业政策的反思;印度尼西亚是仅次于泰国和马来西亚的东盟第三大汽车市场,市场增长稳定;菲律宾是东盟唯一在零配件产业具备出口竞争力的国家.     

关于创建大连保税区离岸金融市场的研究

离岸金融业务是适应国际金融高度发展的需要,通过金融创新而迅速发展的一项新业务,它为国际金融活动开拓了新的空间,并带来了巨大的活力,因而开办离岸金融业务将成为我国商业银行重要的新业务领域,而建立我国自己的离岸金融市场更是推动我国银行跨国经营的现实途径。创建大连保税区离岸金融市场,把大连建成区域性国际金融中心,将为我国建立自己的离岸金融市场起到推动作用。     

上海自贸区对我国养老保险服务市场的影响

目前我国是世界上唯一一个老年人口接近2亿的国家．且正在以每年3％以上的速度在增长。庞大的老年人群体对医疗、护理等养老服务有着巨大的需求。这一需求单靠政府的力量是不可能满足的,亟待社会多元资本的参与。根据上海自贸区的总体方案．外商独资的医疗机构获得了准八的机会,因此,对我国医疗保险产品的创新和发展,以及老年医疗服务的提供有很好的借鉴作用,进而为外资参与养老服务领域提供了可能,带动我国养老服务市场的升级。     

上海自贸区资本项下人民币可兑换的监管

根据上海自贸区“金改40条”方案,上海自贸区将率先试点人民币资本项目可兑换,加快实现人民币完全可自由兑换的步伐。如何在自贸区全面开放资本项目可兑换之后,既保证企业在资本项下便利地运作,又有效地进行监管、防范风险必将是此次“金改”的重中之重。本文通过对比目前区内外和国际上资本项目可兑换的开放程度和风险监控方式,认为在保证便民举措的前提下,自贸区人民币资本项下可兑换的监管核心在于对自由贸易账户FTA的监控。     

Textiles and Clothing in a New Round of Trade Negotiations

Because developing countries generally have a comparative advantagein the production of labor-intensive textiles and clothing,the liberalization of trade in these products is critical totheir prospects for increasing foreign exchange earnings. Thenew round of trade negotiations is likely to be less importantfor trade in textiles and clothing, however, than were the recentrenegotiations of the fourth Multifibre Arrangement (MFA). Asthe MFA remains in effect until July 1991, this limits the rangeof measures which can be altered in the interim. Nonetheless,textile trade will influence the process and outcome of thecurrent negotiations because of the overlap of textile tradedisputes with other broader trade issues. These include tariffs,the rollback of tariffs and quotas, voluntary export restraints,and other nontariff barriers, all of which have been appliedto textiles trade at various times. Each of these measures hasan influence on trade flows and a cost to both the importingand exporting countries. Any proponents of liberalization oftrade in textiles and clothing must not only be familiar withthese costs but also must be knowledgeable about the economicand political forces which have initiated and sustained theprotective measures. The following discussion suggests thatthere are groups and transitional approaches which may favorsome progress in textile trade liberalization in the currentround of negotiations.     

Explaining Welfare Reform: Public Choice and the Labor Market

This paper seeks to identify factors which could plausibly have led to the contractionary welfare reform initiatives begun at the state and federal levels in the U.S. in the 1990s, initiatives concentrated on the AFDC program. A review of aggregate time series evidence, cross-section regression research, and studies of attitudes toward welfare spending and toward welfare recipients suggests a role for three types of factors. First, a major expansion of the U.S. welfare system in the late 1980s in terms of expenditures and caseloads may have led voters to desire to retrench by cutting back on the AFDC program, even though that program was not primarily responsible for the expansion. Second, declines in the relative and absolute levels of household income, wages, and employment rates among the disadvantaged population may have driven up caseloads and costs, increased the social distance of voters from the poor, heightened concern with work incentives, and may have led, more generally, to a decrease in the perceived deservingness of the poor. Third, a surge of births to unmarried mothers in the 1980s is suggested, by cross-sectional and attitudinal evidence, to have led to a reduction in voter support for the AFDC program.     

Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Trade Agreements

The past decade has witnessed a renewed interest in regionaltrade agreements, with many policymakers and academics seemingto believe that these provide more than the traditional gainsfrom trade. This article examines several possible benefitsthat regional trade agreements may confer on their partners,including credibility, signaling, bargaining power, insurance,and coordination. It assesses the necessary conditions for eachpossible channel to work, gives stylized examples of specifictypes of policy where the benefit might be applicable, examinescases where the explanation might be relevant, and discussestheir overall plausibility. It concludes by examining the NorthAmerican Free Trade Agreement and the Europe Agreements.     

自由贸易与保护贸易的政治经济学分析--中国入世后的选择与对策

自由贸易谈论的是效益问题，入世后，中国同样面临自由贸易和保护贸易的选择。只要遵循政治经济学规律，采取措施使世界贸易组织规则朝着有利于我们的方向发展，不断增强自身国际竞争实力，就一定能够把握自由贸易的正确方向。     

Comment: Credit Market Access and the Effects of CRA

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics -     

离岸金融市场发展的国际经验及启示——基于海南自由贸易港视角

构建国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,对我国新时期的金融改革开放提出了新要求,建立在岸的离岸金融市场可为我国金融改革开放提供重要的窗口与试验平台.本文系统地整理综述了国内外文献关于离岸金融的重要观点,有针对性地梳理了美国IBF、日本JOM、新加坡ACU、香港离岸人民币市场等离岸金融市场的制度建设经验...     

中国——东盟自由贸易区的老中贸易效应研究

本文利用引力模型对1990-2009年期间老挝和中国的贸易数据进行分析,考察中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的建立对老挝和中国之间进出口贸易的影响.实证结果表明:CAFTA的建立显著促进了老挝对中国的出口,老挝自中国进口量的增长并不显著.     

自由贸易、贸易保护与美国农业政策

尽管存在各种问题,美国农业出口的重要性不能被低估,粮食出口提供了增加美国农民收入的可能性。乌拉圭回合之后,国际贸易协定陷入停滞,21世纪区域贸易协定成为美国贸易外交的主要模式,但贸易壁垒仍然存在。美国的农业贸易壁垒问题包括关税壁垒、非关税壁垒、国内农业补贴和限制、出口市场补贴、州级农业政策及宏观经济政策。     

以金融自由化为背景的上海自贸区金融改革创新的思考

上海自贸区金融改革是顺应世界金融自由化主流趋势的制度创新,为此推动了利率市场化、汇率市场化等先行先试,对于改进金融开放及金融服务贸易之不足,弥补其短板效应将发挥积极效果,从而更好服务贸易,实现贸易及投资便利化。为规避自由化导致相关的风险,我国金融自由化尤其是自贸区金融自由化相关领域先行先试,应该有边界、循序渐进;要用“三明治”思维优化金融自由化在金融中心建设、浦东综合配套改革、自贸区金融改革先行先试三方面的联动机制。     

从国际经贸协定看中国金融服务开放

通过分析我国在经贸协定中的金融服务开放承诺落实情况及各方评价,对比美国、欧盟、日本、东盟等经济体签署的经贸协定相关条款,发现我国在完善金融服务开放规则框架方面还有较大空间。国际社会对我国履行金融开放承诺评价存在差别,争议焦点是外资金融机构在华经营是否实质性受到限制。在推动金融开放过程中,应为外资金融机构在华开展业务提供更多便利,同时也要做好应对金融服务领域国际经贸摩擦的准备。     

上海自贸区离岸(再)保险市场发展的必要性及建议

离岸再保险市场是国际再保险市场的重要组成部分。上海自贸区发展离岸再保险市场,不但可以扩大再保险业务,而且有利于与国际再保险市场接轨,实现把上海建设成为国际再保险中心的战略目标。本文分别从国家和企业层面探讨了上海自贸区发展离岸再保险市场的必要性,并提出了相关建议。