The Sustainability of Italian Public Debt and Deficit

In this paper, we analyse the sustainability of Italian public debt using a unique database, reconstructed by Forte (2011), which covers the years 1862–2013. The study focuses on empirical tests for the sustainability and solvency of Italian public finance. The results of unit root and stationarity tests show that public debt and deficit variables are non-stationary at levels, but stationary in first-differences form, or I(1). However, some breaks in the series emerge, given internal and external crises (wars, oil shocks, regime changes, institutional reforms). Therefore, the empirical analysis is conducted for the entire period, as well as two sub-periods (1862–1913 and 1947–2013). In essence, the paper’s results reveal that Italy has sustainability problems in the Republican age (1947-2013). Our Markov-switching dynamic regression model indicates the existence of two distinct states, both for public debt and deficit, with means and standard deviations rather different. Both states are extremely persistent.     

美国联邦政府赤字、经济增长与前景展望

就在欧洲主权债务危机呈蔓延之势时,美国联邦政府的巨额赤字又成为新的关注点.从美国收支结构看,美国联邦政府刚性支出比例较大,而收入来源有限,因此削减债务难度很大.同时,计量分析也表明,经济衰退是财政赤字的根本原因.从国内生产总值组成部分的贡献度看,美国个人消费不振制约了经济持续增长,其原因可归结为家庭收入增长缓慢、家庭财富缩水、持续的产业结构调整以及人口老龄化.基于此,笔者认为,美国经济增长前景不容乐观,联邦政府的财政状况在未来两年内难以实现根本性好转.     

军费开支、治安水平与随机内生增长

建立一个随机宏观模型,考虑到军费开支和治安水平,采用随机最优化的方法,把军费开支作为宏观经济变量并进入个人效用和生产函数,得到经济达均衡时军费开支、个人收入的风险对治安水平的影响。同时求出最优的增长率和个人资本与财富比、消费和财富比。     

公共资本性支出、经常性支出与内生经济增长

本文基于一个含有两类不同产出能力的公共商品的内生增长模型,通过数理分析得出在市场经济条件下最优公共支出结构的依据是公共商品各自的产出弹性.进而采用面板数据模型对13个发达国家1972～2009年的公共支出实践进行了实证研究.实证结果表明,经常性(资本性)支出对经济增长有正(负)效应.该研究结论为平衡预算下的公共支出结构决策提供了参考依据.     

Economic Growth,Public Debt and Welfare: Comparing Three Budgetary Rules

Abstract. We present an endogenous growth model with externalities of capital and elastic labor supply where we allow for public debt and welfare‐enhancing public spending. We analyze different debt policies as regards convergence to a balanced growth path and their effects on long‐run growth and welfare. Three budgetary rules are considered: the balanced budget rule, a budgetary rule where debt grows in the long run but at a rate lower than the balanced growth rate and a rule where public debt grows at the same rate as all other economic variables but where it guarantees that the intertemporal budget constraint is fulfilled.     

国债的性质与国债发行的转变

与现代资本市场发展的内在要求相比,中国的国债发行是很不规范的.本文从准确认识国债的性质出发,对我国今后的国债发行必须实现的三个转变进行了深入系统的分析,提出转变国债发行对象、转变国债发行品种、财政部门自设国债发行机构的观点.     

Can the Stability and Growth Pact in EMU Cause Budget Deficit Cycles?

We study whether the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in EuropeanMonetary Union (EMU) can induce budget deficit cycles. The SGP provides a framework forsanctioning EMU-memberswith excessive deficits. If a government's optimal deficitpolicy is above the deficit threshold which triggers penalties then the deficit will be higherwith the SGP in force than without. The SGP may even induce deficit cycles in the sense thata government switches its optimal deficit between the threshold provided by the SGP and aneven larger deficit.     

债务期限结构、流动性与公共债务管理

本文研究中国公共债务期限结构管理如何实现中央和地方两级政府债务融资效率性与稳定性的统一。我们的理论模型证明,当前地方政府融资平台和一些具有准政府性质的国有经济部门的短期债务融资在未来发生流动性冲击时会导致资产降价销售和负的社会外部性。基于资产组合理论和比较优势原理,我们提出中央和地方债务融资的利率互换方式以及债务期限结构优化管理的基本原则,并且对地方政府不同融资模式的经济效应和治理效应进行了简要的比较分析。     

Growth and Welfare Maximization in Models of Public Finance and Endogenous Growth

This paper evaluates the trade‐off between growth and welfare maximization from two perspectives. First, it synthesizes and extends endogenous growth models with public finance to compare the growth‐ and welfare‐maximizing tax rates. Second, it examines the distinct model outcomes in terms of the growth rates and welfare levels. This comparison highlights the range of trade‐offs: the growth‐maximizing tax rate can lie above, below, or on the welfare‐maximizing equivalent. We find however that even relatively large differences in growth‐ and welfare‐maximizing tax rates translate into relatively small differences in growth rates, and, in some cases, welfare levels.     

公共年金制度的效果--运用内生增长模型分析

本文运用导入外部效应的内生增长模型和叠代模型,分析了社会保障制度中不同财政运行方式的年金制度对经济增长率以及社会福利所产生的效果。得出的结论是,不同的年金制度会通过影响个人的生涯可支配收入而对经济增长和社会福利产生不同的影响。由于完全基金方式的年金制度不改变个人的生涯可支配收入,因此具有中性。但是,现收现付的年金制度却有可能改变个人的生涯可支配收入,从而对经济增长率和社会福利产生负面影响。     

Debt, Growth and Budgetary Regimes

Within the Barro (1990) model of productive public services, but with the inclusion of public debt, we derive and characterize on the balanced growth path, a set of welfare‐maximizing fiscal rules under two budgetary regimes – one with only the standard dynamic government budget constraint, and the other involving the golden rule of public finance. We demonstrate analytically that the optimal fiscal policy differs in the two budgetary regimes considered. We also analyse two cases within the second regime: one, where the ratio of current spending to tax revenues is parametrically given, and another, where this ratio is optimally chosen by the government.     

R&D、R&D溢出、内生增长和内生收敛

根据强调知识与技术创新、知识与技术溢出重要性的当代内生增长理论,本文建立了一个将R&D和R&D溢出与资本积累之间、R&D和R&D溢出与总产出增长之间直接关联起来的动态模型.面板数据协整检验实证分析结果表明R&D和R&D溢出与资本积累之间、R&D和R&D溢出与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的正面长期协整关联.进一步的分析表明,R&D与资本积累之间、R&D与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的长期双向格兰杰因果关系.由此观知,R&D乃长期经济增长源泉之所在.另一方面,尽管资本积累或总产出增长并不格兰杰导致R&D溢出,证据表明R&D溢出格兰杰导致资本积累和总产出增长.这种由R&D溢出到资本积累和总产出增长的单向格兰杰因果关系意味着尽管知识与技术的跨国传播并非必然发生,其实为世界经济增长的重要动力.     

通货膨胀、财政赤字与经济增长

铸币税和通货膨胀税作为政府隐性税收降低了居民可支配收入,通货膨胀与一般性税收之间的时滞对政府总财政税收产生了一定的影响,国内资本市场的不完善和政府对中央银行的直接干预是我国财政赤字和通货膨胀的主要原因,以通货膨胀促进经济增长不仅效果甚微,而且以改变居民经济预期的方式抑制了国内消费需求。     

Public Debt, Migration, and Shortsighted Politicians

We analyze a model where local public debt levels are set by politicians who are chosen in local elections. Migration causes an externality across districts, and leads to overaccumulation of local public debt. Since debt is a strategic substitute, the median voters in each district prefer shortsighted political leaders who “borrow and spend,” thereby exacerbating the problem of overaccumulation of local public debt.     

A Guaranteed Fix for the Budget Deficit北大核心CSSCISSCI

Okay, everyone knows that we’ve got big federal budget problems. Republicans aren’t willing to raise taxes to solve them. Democrats aren’t willing to cut benefits to solve the problems without taxes being increased, and maybe not even then.     

债务融资、成长性与企业投资行为——对A股和香港上市公司的比较研究

本文以A股和香港上市公司为研究对象,考察债务融资和成长性对企业投资行为的影响。实证结果表明,企业债务与投资支出显著负相关,在低成长性公司中这一关系尤为显著。在低成长性公司中,A股上市公司的债务融资与投资支出的负相关关系比香港上市公司显著,香港中资上市公司的债务融资与投资支出的负相关关系比香港本地上市公司显著。     

Capital Controls,Public Debt and Currency Crises

This paper examines the possibility that, contrary to conventional wisdom, capital controls accelerate currency crises. Theoretical analysis shows that capital controls can constitute an additional burden on government budget and so bring forward the onset of crises. Since perfect capital mobility does not occur, domestic interest rates may deviate from world interest rates. High interest rates under capital controls create an additional cost of servicing outstanding domestic public debt, precipitating crises. Even though the government can delay crises with capital controls, welfare may be less than in a situation with perfect capital mobility.