Macroeconomic news announcements and price discovery: Evidence from Canadian–U.S. cross-listed firms

This study employs macroeconomic news announcements as a proxy for new information arrivals and examines their impact on price discovery. We compare the price discovery of 38 Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) for the period 2004–2011. First, we observe that price discovery shifts significantly during macroeconomic news announcement days. Second, the NYSE becomes more important in terms of price discovery, regardless of the origin of the news. Third, we examine the relation between price discovery and market microstructure variables. After controlling for liquidity shocks, we find that the impact of news announcements persists. Intraday analyses of price discovery on periods surrounding news releases further support these findings. Overall, our findings suggest that there is a difference in information-processing capability of the two markets, with the U.S. market being better at processing information than the Canadian market during macroeconomic news announcements.     

Return and volatility co-movement in commodity futures markets: the effects of liquidity risk

Commodity markets are a widely researched topic in the field of finance. In this paper, we investigate the co-movement of return and volatility measures in different commodity futures markets and how these measures are affected by liquidity risk. First, we find that commodity returns display co-movement and that liquidity risk plays a key role in shaping asset return patterns. Moreover, we show that the volatilities of commodity returns co-move, and we demonstrate the role of liquidity risk in this joint pattern. We also find that the commodity markets we investigated share a common volatility factor that determines their joint volatility co-movement. Because liquidity risk affects both commodity returns and volatility shocks, it might be interpreted as the common causal factor driving both measures simultaneously. Therefore, we affirm the view that liquidity shocks are firmly related to two residual risks originating from both market return and market volatility. Finally, we also show that liquidity spillovers can significantly drive cross-sectional correlation dynamics.     

What do price discovery metrics really measure?

A market is typically considered to dominate price discovery if it is the first to reflect new information about the fundamental value. Our simulations indicate that common price discovery metrics – Hasbrouck information share and Harris–McInish–Wood component share – are only consistent with this view of price discovery if the price series have equal levels of noise, including microstructure frictions and liquidity. If the noise in the price series differs, the information and component shares measure a combination of leadership in impounding new information and relative avoidance of noise, to varying degrees. A third price discovery metric, the ‘information leadership share’ uses the information share and the component share together to identify the price series that is first to impound new information. This third metric is robust to differences in noise levels and therefore correctly attributes price discovery in a wider range of settings. Using four recent empirical studies of price discovery we show that the choice and interpretation of price discovery metrics can have a substantial impact on conclusions about price discovery.     

Information shares in a two-tier FX market

Using several measures of information share, we examine price discovery across the inter-dealer and dealer–customer market tiers in the currencies market. In the spot market, the information share of the inter-dealer tier is higher than that of the dealer–customer one for non-financial sector trades and is lower than the dealer–customer tier for foreign investors’ sell trades. In the forward market, the dealer–customer tier generally has the greater information share at the dealer’s buy side. Our results indicate the market where customers’ trades are the most informative and demonstrate how exogenous events affect price discovery across markets and market tiers.     

Information shares of two parallel currency options markets: Trading costs versus transparency/tradability

This paper studies whether trading costs or transparency/tradability are more important to price discovery using a unique dataset of currency options that trade simultaneously in two parallel markets. The Over-The-Counter (OTC) market is characterized by sophisticated investors, low trading costs, and low transparency/tradability compared to the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE). Pricing errors are much larger on the TASE and the information share of the OTC market is significantly larger than that of the TASE by various information share measures, showing that trading costs and trader type have a first-order effect on price discovery while transparency/tradability have a second-order effect.     

A、H股的协整关系与价格发现功能

应用共同因子模型和市场信息份额模型分析A、H股在价格发现中的作用。考察A、H股的协整关系对两个模型的估计结果的影响。研究表明,共同因子模型可能得到有偏差的估计结果,而市场信息份额模型的估计结果是无偏的。应用2011年的分钟数据实证分析A、H股市场的价格发现功能,表明两个市场的价格发现贡献度大致相等。     

The informativeness of domestic and foreign investors’ stock trades: Evidence from the perfectly segmented Chinese market

This paper uses the perfect market segmentation setting in China's stock market to compare the information content of the stock trades of domestic and foreign investors. We study 76 firms that issue both A-shares (for domestic investors) and B-shares (for foreign investors) and compare the price discovery role of the two segmented markets in China. Before Feb 19, 2001, the A-share market led the B-share market in price discovery, as the signed volume and quote revision of the A-share market had strong predictive ability for B-share quote returns, but not vice versa. After Feb 19, 2001, because some domestic investors were allowed to invest in the B-share market, we find evidence for a reverse causality from the B-share to the A-share market. Nevertheless, the [Hasbrouck (1995). One security, many markets: determining the contributions to price discovery, Journal of Finance 50, 1175–1199.] information share analysis reveals that A-shares continue to dominate the price discovery process.     

Presidential Address: Liquidity and Price Discovery

This paper examines the implications of market microstructure for asset pricing. I argue that asset pricing ignores the central fact that asset prices evolve in markets. Markets provide liquidity and price discovery, and I argue that asset pricing models need to be recast in broader terms to incorporate the transactions costs of liquidity and the risks of price discovery. I argue that symmetric information‐based asset pricing models do not work because they assume that the underlying problems of liquidity and price discovery have been solved. I develop an asymmetric information asset pricing model that incorporates these effects.     

中国利率市场的价格发现——对国债现货、期货以及利率互换市场的研究

本文采用信息份额模型和基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的格兰杰因果检验,研究了国债现货、国债期货和利率互换三个市场之间的价格发现机制。信息份额模型表明,从整体来看利率互换相对于国债期货和国债现货都具有信息优势,而国债期货相对于国债现货具有信息优势。另外,国债期货的价格发现能力相对于另外两个市场都在随时间增强。格兰杰因果检验结果显示,利率互换在价格发现中单向引领国债期货以及国债现货,国债期货单向引领国债现货。所有结果一致表明, 利率互换和国债期货这两种利率衍生产品在引导中国利率市场价格发现中发挥了重要作用。     

Dynamics and determinants of credit risk discovery: Evidence from CDS and stock markets

This paper investigates the dynamics and drivers of credit risk discovery between stock and CDS markets in the US. Our research is distinguished from the existing literature in three aspects: 1) we employ an improved method to measure the information share; 2) we discover new drivers of credit risk discovery; and 3) we assess the impact of central clearing counterparty (CCP) on the CDS market. By using the generalized information share (GIS) by Lien and Shrestha (2014), we address the issue that the CDS and stock prices do not have one-to-one cointegration relation. The empirical results support the use of GIS instead of more conventional measures. We also find that eliminating transitory price components increases the information share of the CDS market in the earlier period of the sample. The economic condition and funding cost turn out to affect the information share of the CDS market negatively. Another interesting finding is that the CDS of investment grade firms possess higher information shares compared to speculative grade firms. Finally, CCP seems to reduce the information share of CDS, which suggests that the CDS market is driven largely by insider trading.     

Price Discovery in Near‐ and Away‐from‐the‐Money Option Markets

This paper examines the relative price discovery roles of near‐ and away‐from‐the‐money option markets. The evidence shows that, when considering multiple options with different strike prices jointly, option markets have an average information share of 17.6%. However, no individual option market dominates in the price discovery process, higher and lower trading activity options (i.e., near‐ and away‐from‐the‐money options, respectively) each contribute approximately equally to this process. The main implications of these results are that (1) collectively, option markets process a substantial amount of new stock price‐related information, and (2) looking across strike prices, option markets appear to be informationally nonredundant.     

Liquidity dynamics across public and private markets

In this paper we investigate cross-asset liquidity between equity markets and REITs and between REITs and private real estate markets. While many studies have investigated REIT liquidity, and there is an emerging interest in liquidity in the private real estate markets, there appears to be little knowledge of the dynamics of cross-market liquidity. We find lower levels of liquidity for REITs compared to a set of control firms matched on size and book-to-market ratios. Commonality in liquidity is also lower for REITs than the controls and the overall market. However, we do find an important difference in share turnover for REITs, which appears to have a higher level of commonality than found in other studies. We suggest that this may be due to the financial crisis. Additionally we find evidence of similar time-series variation in liquidity for public and private real estate markets. We also find significant directional causality for most liquidity proxies from the public to private real estate markets. Finally our results show that there is strong contemporaneous correlation between both public and private real estate market liquidity and the term spread and real investment and consumption spending. REIT liquidity measures based on intraday data also appear to contain important information not found in measures constructed from daily returns.     

On the intensity of liquidity spillovers in the Eurozone

This paper seeks to elucidate dimensions and directions of the liquidity spillover phenomenon in the Eurozone equity markets during the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. The research examines questions relevant to the shift-contagion in the Eurozone countries during the time of crisis, as well as the role of a liquidity channel of transmission relaying external shocks among those countries. The findings document the existence of non-linearities in the transmission mechanisms across selected markets; we use a structural model introduced by Favero and Giavazzi (2002) while controlling for interdependence. The result is in line with the crisis-contingent theories that suggest transmission of shocks through an endogenous liquidity channel. Furthermore, we notice a pattern of liquidity spillover from small markets to the German, French, Italian and UK markets even after controlling for monetary policy shocks, and we confirm the persistence of liquidity co-movements, supporting the argument that financial contagion in the Eurozone market was transmitted and intensified via the liquidity channel.     

Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets

We investigate the contribution of option markets to price discovery, using a modification of Hasbrouck's (1995) "information share" approach. Based on five years of stock and options data for 60 firms, we estimate the option market's contribution to price discovery to be about 17% on average. Option market price discovery is related to trading volume and spreads in both markets, and stock volatility. Price discovery across option strike prices is related to leverage, trading volume, and spreads. Our results are consistent with theoretical arguments that informed investors trade in both stock and option markets, suggesting an important informational role for options.     

One Security,Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery

When homogeneous or closely-linked securities trade in multiple markets, it is often of interest to determine where price discovery (the incorporation of new information) occurs. This article suggests an econometric approach based on an implicit unobservable efficient price common to all markets. The information share associated with a particular market is defined as the proportional contribution of that market's innovations to the innovation in the common efficient price. Applied to quotes for the thirty Dow stocks, the technique suggests that the preponderance of the price discovery takes place at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) (a median 92.7 percent information share).     

Information transmission in informationally linked markets: Evidence from US and Chinese commodity futures markets

This paper investigates information transmission and price discovery in informationally linked markets within the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and information share frameworks. Based on both synchronous and non-synchronous trading information from Chinese futures/spot markets, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), and CME Globex futures markets for copper and soybeans, we show that there is a bidirectional relationship in terms of price and volatility spillovers between US and Chinese markets, with a stronger effect from US to Chinese markets than the other way around. Additionally, the NYMEX and CBOT play a more important role than the CME Globex in the flow of information from US to Chinese markets. Moreover, we find that Chinese copper market adjusts more quickly than the NYMEX copper market to correct the disparity between both markets. However, the converse is true in the case of soybeans. Finally, our results highlight the remarkable role of Chinese futures markets in the price formation process, though NYMEX and CBOT futures markets are the main driving force in price discovery.     

Informed traders of cross-listed shares trade more in the domestic market around earnings releases

This paper examines informed trading and price discovery for Canadian shares cross-listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the main U.S. exchanges. The domestic Canadian market can absorb higher demand for liquidity but offers no trading cost advantage. During earnings non-announcement periods, the intra-market probability of informed trading (PI) is similar on both national markets, and both national markets contribute to price discovery. The magnitude and elapsed time over which trading volumes are increased when earnings are announced are higher in the domestic Canadian market. Around earnings announcements, PI decreases only on the U.S. market and the Canadian market contributes more to price discovery. To infer the fundamental values of the underlying cross-listed firms, market participants should monitor both markets, and intensify their monitoring of the Canadian market during earnings announcement periods.     

Impact of the introduction of call auction on price discovery: Evidence from the Indian stock market using high-frequency data

Call markets are claimed to aggregate information and facilitate price discovery where continuous markets may fail. The impact of the introduction of call auction has not been found uniformly beneficial, possibly due to poor design or due to ‘thick market externalities’. This paper examines the reintroduction of opening call auction at the National Stock Exchange of India in 2010. The results suggest that the auctions attract very little volume, the intraday pattern of volume and volatility in the continuous market remains unchanged and a large fraction of price discovery, measured by the Weighted Price Contribution, still takes place in the first 15 min of continuous market. However, the market synchronicity has improved after the introduction of the auction. Our findings suggest that the ability to attract volume in the call auction for effective price discovery depends on the institutional settings and the characteristics of liquidity supply in the market.     

The role of trades in price convergence: A study of dual-listed Canadian stocks

We examine the role of trades in restoring price parity for equities trading in multiple markets. Using a sample of stocks trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange and on the NYSE, AMEX or NASDAQ, we contrast price convergence when market makers (a) observe only lagged quotes from both markets and (b) also observe local order flow. Traditional error correction model estimates show that prices in the two markets adjust towards parity in response to quoted price discrepancies, meaning that observation of the cross-market quote helps restore parity. Including order flow in an augmented error correction model, we find that incremental price convergence occurs when trades are routed to the market with the better price, and the importance of quotes in the price convergence process is reduced. Cross-sectional analysis reveals that the importance of order flow in each market is decreasing in firm size and increasing in measures of liquidity. Our findings point to an important, and hitherto unexamined, role for trades in promoting inter-market price convergence.     

Information shares in the US Treasury market

This paper highlights the previously neglected role of the futures markets in US Treasury price discovery. The estimates of 5- and 10-year GovPX spot market information shares typically fail to reach 50% from 1999 on. The GovPX information shares for the 2-year contract are higher than those of the 5- and 10-year maturities but also decline after 1998. Relative bid-ask spreads, number of trades, and realized volatility are statistically significant and explain up to 21% of daily information shares. In roughly 1/4 of cases when public information is released, the futures market gains information share, but macroeconomic announcements rarely explain information shares independently of liquidity.