The impact of EMU on trade flows

The Impact of EMU on Trade Flows. — In this paper we quantify the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows within the EU with the help of a gravity trade model. We consider bilateral instead of total exports, and we use panel data. Moreover, we introduce dynamics into the model, taking lagged exports as explanatory variable. The estimation of this model for the period 1962–1995 leads to significant negative coefficients for the proxy of exchange rate variability. We use these estimates to calculate the potential trade-creating effect of a monetary union, setting the exchange rate volatility equal to zero.     

Intra-Industry trade and limited producer horizons: An empirical investigation

Intra-Industry Trade and Limited Producer Horizons: An Empirical Investigation. — Following three decades of growing integration, intra-European trade has expanded significantly. Much of the growth has been in intra-industry trade (ITT). ITT appears to be causally correlated with integration, one possible link being through the impact of market integration on producer horizons. This paper applies the limited producer horizons hypothesis as a possible explanation of movements in IIT in an important class of differentiated products. It finds evidence in support of the hypothesis for some, but not all, countries in the EC.     

International trade and worker flows: empirical evidence for Germany

Using a linked employer–employee data set for Germany, this paper studies how worker flows are related to establishments’ international trade involvement. Unconditional figures show that trading establishments have lower worker turnover rates than non-traders, suggesting a higher degree of employment stability. Conditional on an extensive set of control variables, exporting is further associated with a higher net job flow rate, which is almost entirely due to a lower separation rate (particularly for high-skilled workers and transitions into non-employment). In contrast, both an increase and a decrease in import intensity are (weakly) associated with a lower accession rate. These results are predominantly driven by smaller establishments, and they partly lose statistical significance once unobservable establishment characteristics are taken into account.     

The role of R&D in high-technology trade: An empirical analysis

Conclusion This paper attempts to establish the relationship between the level of R&D activities of a country and its trade performance in high-technology products. Empirical evidence based on the limited data used in the paper shows that this relationship appears to be quite significant. An analysis of the implications of this relationship reveals that the low level of R&D in Canada is due to, among other factors, the prevalence of foreign ownership of Canadian manufacturing industries, and the resource-based characteristic of the Canadian economy. Given the nature of foreign-owned firms, the paper suggests that countries should not rely on them as a crucial instrument in the creation of an indigenous capacity to produce high-technology products which are competitive at the world level. Instead, domestic policies aimed at the development and nurturing of the countries' own scientific and technological skills are required. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author. They should not be construed as the official views of the Ministry of State for Science and Technology of the Government of Canada. Research assistance provided by Tom Wudwud and Penny Robinson is well appreciated. The author, however, is responsible for any omissions or errors that remain.     

Exchange controls, international capital flows and saving-investment correlations in the UK: An empirical investigation

Exchange Controls, International Capital Flows and Saving-Investment Correlations in the UK: An Empirical Investigation. - This paper reexamines the Feldstein-Horioka approach to measure the degree of international capital mobility, focusing on the difference between the short-run and the long-run saving-investment correlation coefficient. The authors also investigate the effectiveness of the abolition of exchange control which, in October 1979, ended a long period of restrictions on capital flows between the UK and the international economy. Their results suggest that the short-run saving-investment correlation is significantly higher than the long-run one. Unlike most of the relevant literature, the empirical evidence suggests that the UK is financially highly integrated with the world economy after 1979.     

International trade and factor intensity uniformity: An empirical assessment

Zusammenfassung Internationaler Handel und die Einheitlichkeit der Faktorintensit?ten. Eine empirische überprüfung. - Die Vorstellung, da? in allen L?ndern die Technologien identisch sind, ist ein Pfeiler der neoklassischen Theorie des internationalen Handels. Empirische Arbeiten verwenden h?ufig die Produktionsstruktur eines Landes als N?herungswert für die Technologie in allen anderen L?ndern. Dagegen behaupten die Autoren, da? die Annahme einheitlicher Faktorintensit?ten aus empirischen Gründen nicht gerechtfertigt sei und als Grundlage für theoretische Modelle aufgegeben werden sollte. Sie testen, ob die Faktorintensit?ten einheitlich gleich sind, indem sie Input-Output-Daten für die OECD-L?nder verwenden. Dann entwickeln sie- als eine Alternative zu den Modellen, die auf einheitlicher Faktorintensit?t beruhenein dynamisches disaggregiertes ricardianisches Modell, das dazu bestimmt ist, die Beziehung zwischen dem technischen Fortschritt und den Ver?nderungen in der Zusammensetzung des internationalen Handels zu erfassen.

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Résumé Le commerce international et l’uniformité de l’intensité de facteur-Une évaluation empirique. - L’idée de technologies identiques à travers les pays est un élément considérable de la théorie néoclassique du commerce international. Les analyses empiriques souvent assument la structure de production d’un seul pays comme approximation de la technologie dans tous les autres pays. Dans cette étude, les auteurs trouvent que la supposition d’une intensité de facteur uniforme n’est pas justifiée pour des raisons empiriques et devrait être abandonnée comme une base d'un modèle théorique. En utilisant des données input-output des pays de l’OCED, les auteurs font des tests simples de l’uniformité d’intensité de facteur. Comme alternative aux modèles basés sur l’uniformité de l’intensité de facteur, les auteurs développent un modèle Ricardian dynamique et disaggrégé pour saisir la relation entre le progrès technologique et les changements dans la composition du commerce international.

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Resumen Comercio international y uniformidad de la intensidad de factores. Un estudio empirico. - La noción de la existencia de igual tecnología en todos los países es uno de los pilares de la teoría neoclásica del comercio international. En trabajos empíricos a menudo se adopta la estructura de productión de un país para aproximar la tecnología en todos los demás países. En este trabajo se argumenta que el supuesto de la uniformidad de la intensidad de factores (UIF) no se justifica desde el punto de vista empírico y que debería ser abandonado como fundamento de los modelos teóricos. Se llevan a cabo tests simples de la UIF utilizando datos de insumo producto de los países de la OECD. Se desarrolla un modelo ricardiano dinámico y desagregado, dise?ado para capturar la relación entre el cambio tecnológico y los cambios en la compositión del comercio, como una alternativa a los modelos basados en la UIF.

     

The value of Chinese patents: An empirical investigation of citation lags

China has been experiencing a substantial growth in patent applications. But is this increase accompanied by a similar increase in patent value? To assess this question, we examine the citation lag of Chinese patents as a proxy of patent value in comparison with patents from the US, Europe, Japan, and Korea. Our empirical analysis comprises a unique data set of 60,000 patents with priority years between 2000 and 2010. Utilizing Cox regressions, our results show that Chinese patents suffer from a large citation lag in comparison to international patents, indicating a lower value. This is especially true for patents filed domestically. However, we find empirical support for an increasing patent value in more recent patents. China shows a strong dynamic in the field of patenting and our results suggest that the gap between Chinese patents and international patents might narrow down in the near future.     

The Impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade and production: An empirical analysis of processing trade with Japan and the US

The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted international trade, leading countries to grapple with product shortages and firms to experience major supply chain issues. These challenges increased production costs and significantly contributed to lower trade and higher inflation. In this paper, we examine the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade through its two main trading partners: Japan and the US. By differentiating products by product type and processing status, we find evidence that products in the middle of the global supply chain were most affected by the pandemic and that the severity of the shock depends on the partner country’s role in the global supply chain. Additionally, we find that Chinese exports are more impacted than Chinese imports, regardless of processing status. These findings are largely consistent with economic theory. Understanding that the effects of global shocks vary by product and country will help guide policies that minimize supply chain disruptions.     

The impact of relative prices on tourism demand for Mauritius: An empirical analysis

The present study assesses the impact of relative prices on tourism flows in Mauritius. To account for dynamism in tourism flows modelling, a dynamic time series analysis – namely the vector autoregressive model – is employed. The results show that relative price measures have a long-run impact on international tourism flows, indicating that tourists are sensitive to price levels. The relative average cost in the different competing destinations is also reported to be positive and significant, indicating that the impact of relative price changes in foreign destinations competing with Mauritius tourism matters; thus indicating a certain degree of substitutability between Mauritian and its regional competitors’ tourism. Tourism infrastructure, income in country of origin and the island's level of development are confirmed to be key factors in the tourist selection decision. Finally, overall, short-run estimates confirm the above results.     

Growth,exports and cointegration: An empirical investigation

Zusammenfassung Wachstum, Exporte und Ko-Integration. Eine empirische Untersuchung. — In diesem Aufsatz wird Johansens multivariate Ko-Integrationsanalyse auf viertelj?hrliche Daten für das BIP, den Konsum, die Investitionen und die Exporte von sechs L?ndern angewandt. Es zeigt sich, da\ in vier F?llen der Export keine ko-integrativen Beziehungen zu den anderen drei Variablen eingeht. Demgem?\ gibt es keine starke empirische Evidenz für die Hypothese vom exportinduzierten Wachstum.

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Resumen Crecimiento, exportaciones y cointegración: una investigatión empirica. — La aplicación del análisis de cointegración multivariado de Johansen al PBI trimestral, al consumo, a la inversión y a las exportaciones de seis paises industrializados indica que en cuatro casos las exportaciones no forman parte de las relaciones de cointegración entre las tres otras variables. Por ello, no se obtiene evidencia empírica importante en favor de la hipótesis del crecimiento dirigido por las exportaciones.

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Résumé Accroissement, exportation et co-intégration: une analyse empirique. — L’application de l’analyse de co-intégration multivariate de Johansen aux données trimestrielles du produit national brut, de la consommation, de l’investissement et de l’exportation de six pays industrialisés indique qu’en quatre cas l’exportation n’influence pas les relations de co-intégration entre les trois autres variables. Par conséquence, l’évidence empirique ne supporte pas fortement l’hypothèse que la croissance économique soit stimulée par l’exportation.

     

The impact of banks' statewide economic power on their political power: An empirical analysis

Conclusions The empirical evidence presented in this paper supports the hypothesis that the level of banking concentration does not have a significant impact on banks' political influence. This average bank size appears to be negatively related lated to political power within the state.Because of the difficulties of defining and measuring political and economic power, the conclusions presented here should be considered to be tentative. However, the results do demonstrate the need for further research in this area.     

The impact of AFTA on intra-AFTA trade

ASEAN countries have liberalised intra-ASEAN trade over the last 20 years by establishing the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). This paper aims to examine the impact of trade liberalisation under AFTA on intra-ASEAN trade. By applying a gravity model, we find positive and significant trade creation effects from the tariff elimination for a wide range of products. In addition, the analysis reveals that the elasticity of tariff reduction on imports tends to be much larger than that on exports. Trade creation effects for the new ASEAN members are relatively small compared to those for the old members. Our results show that AFTA has been successful in promoting intra-AFTA trade, while we argue that further expansion may be achieved by increasing the use of AFTA and by reducing/removing non-tariff measures (NTMs) through such ways as improving customs procedures and harmonizing/mutually recognizing product standards.     

The monetary exchange rate model in the long run: An empirical investigation

The Monetary Exchange Rate Model in the Long Run: An Empirical Investigation. — This paper uses the Johansen multivariate cointegration method to examine three variants of the monetary approach to the long-run exchange rate model: flexible price, forward-looking and sticky price monetary models. Evidence is provided for four bilateral sterling exchange rates. The sensitivity of the results to the measurement of monetary aggregates is also examined. The cointegration results provide dismal evidence for the flexible price and forward-looking models irrespective of the measurement of money. The findings are more mixed for the sticky price model, particularly when broad money is used.     

An empirical investigation on the temporal properties of China's GDP

This paper employs a structural time series model designed with three components of stochastic seasonality, trigonometric expression of cyclicality and local linear trend to investigate the evolutionary process of China's GDP. In particular, the model is able to detect the stop–go feature of China's economic growth, i.e., growth cycle, as well as business cycle. The empirical result suggests that most variation in China's macroeconomic performance came from business cycle. The investigation of the three components along with historical events suggests that the Chinese economy had been largely influenced by political activities up to the early 1990s. In the mid-1990s China entered a period of stable and highly growing economy, thanks to the economic reform and the successful implementation of macroeconomic policies. However, since the mid-2000s China has become more sensitive to the turbulences in international markets. In the foreseeable future, the challenge facing China is a more volatile economy with possible slowdown in the economic growth, although the growth rate would still be high compared to developed economies.     

The impact of technological differences on east-west trade

Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkungen von Unterschieden in der Technologie auf den Ost-West-Handel. —Aus der empirischen Analyse des internationalen Austauschs von Technologie und technologieintensiven Produkten im Ost-West-Handel ergeben sich zwei klare Ergebnisse. Erstens wird die Ansicht best?tigt, da\ Technologiestr?me im Ost-West-Handel dominieren und da\ die Str?me von technologieintensiven Produkten von den entwickelten L?ndern mit einer Marktwirtschaft zu den L?ndern mit einer Planwirtschaft flie\en. Zweitens ergibt sich jedoch ein anderes Muster der technologischen Abh?ngigkeit, wenn nur die “hohe” Technologie betrachtet wird, hier definiert als stark oder durchschnittlich F-und-E-intensive Güter: Die Rolle dieser “hohen” Technologie im Ost-West-Handel ist relativ gering. Ein wichtiger Grund dafür, da\ stark F-und-E-intensive Güter nicht in gro\em Umfang von den Ostblockl?ndern importiert werden, liegt darin, da\ diese Gruppe Konsumgüter enth?lt (Fernsehen, Hi-Fi-Ausrüstungen, elektronische Güter usw.). Harte Devisen werden aber weiterhin vorwiegend zum Kauf von Investitionsgütern zugeteilt, d. h. für den Kauf von Technologie an sich. Au\erdem verhindern mengenm?\ige Beschr?nkungen im Ost-West-Handel, da\ technologieintensive Produkte in dem Umfang gehandelt werden, wie es gem?\ der Theorie zu erwarten w?re.

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Résumé L’effet des différences technologiques sur le commerce est-ouest. ⟶euxaspects sont démontrés par l’analyse empirique des flux de la technologie et des produits basés sur la technologie en commerce est-ouest. Le premier résultat confirme l’opinion que le commerce est-ouest est dominé par les flux de technologie et que le flux de technologie incorporée s’écoule des économies de marché développées vers les économies planifiées. Le deuxième résultat, cependant, suggère une structure assez différente de la dépendance technologique si l’on considère seulement la technologie ?haute? définie ici par des produits hautement et modérément R&D-intensifs : Le r?le de la technologie ?haute? est relativement faible. Une raison importante pourquoi les produits hautement R&D-intensifs ne sont pas importés en grande échelle est qu’ils incluent des biens à consommation (télévision, hi-fi équipement, électroniques). Mais les monnaies fortes continuent à être réservées avant tout pour l’achat des biens d’investissement, c’est-à-dire pour l’achat de la technologie ellemême. De plus, les restrictions quantitatives en commerce est-ouest empêchent que les produits intensifs à technologie sont commercés en mesure comme prédite par la théorie.

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Resumen El impacto de diferencias tecnol?gicas sobre el intercambio comercial entre el Este y el Oeste. -El análisis enxpirico de las corrientes de tecnología y de bienes de base tecnológica intercambiados entre el Este y el Oeste demuestra claramente dos cosas. Primero se confirma la opinión de que en el intercambio comercial entre el Este y el Oeste predominan las corrientes de tecnología y que la dirección de la corriente de tecnologia incorporada es de los países desarrollados de economía de mercado hacia los pafses de economia centralmente planificada. El segundo resultado, empero, sugiere una estructura de dependencia tecnológica diferente, si se considera solamente la ?alta? tecnología, definida como bienes moderadamente y altamente intensivos en investigatión y desarrollo (I&D). La ?alta? tecnología cumple un papel relativamente menor en el intercambio comercial entre el Este y el Oeste. Una de las razones por las cuales bienes muy intensivos en I&D no se importan en gran escala es que incluyen bienes de consumo (aparatos de televisión, equipos de audio, artefactos electrónicos, etc.). El Este continúa con su política de asignar divisas preferentemente para compras de bienes de capital, o sea, para la compra de la tecnología misma. Además, restricciones cuantitativas sobre el comercio Este-Oeste impiden el intercambio de bienes intensivos en tecnología en la medida indicada por la teoría del comercio internacional.

     

农产品国际贸易争端及其影响因素的实证研究

本文以世贸组织成立以来诉诸WTO争端解决机构(DSB)的农产品争端为主要研究对象,运用Logistic回归模型对农产品贸易争端发生的影响因素进行了实证研究。结果表明,农业资源禀赋特征、国家经济发展水平(即国家经济实力的差异)、国家农业有效政治力量的不同,对农产品贸易争端的发生有显著影响。