Energy Restructuring in China： Retrospects and Prospects

Thirty years have passed since China first adopted the policy of reform and opening up to the outside. Reviewing and appraising the advantages and disadvantages of the government＇s energy restructuring policy in the intervening years is of great importance to the consideration of future reform and opening-up efforts in this industry. Energy production and supply have been a major part of the national economic restructuring. In this paper, the author proceeds from three angles to review and assess the reform and opening-up efforts in the energy industry, and suggests some direction and priorities for its restrueturing in the future.     

Causes of Inflation in China： Inflation Expectations

This paper argues that the main causes of inflation in China since the early 21st century are changes in the public's inflation expectations. The conventional wisdom, the quantity theory of money, may not be adequate to capture the relationship between price changes and money supply growth, as the economic system evolves and people's income and wealth grow. An examination of China's GDP deflator and broad money supply relative to nominal GDP shows that the relationship between the two series is relatively weak. A further examination of China's monthly CPI series over the period 2001–2010 reveals that the autoregressive models are a better fit than the moving average models, which suggests that the role of CPI expectations has been significant and important. Because of the importance of inflation expectations in CPI movement, we believe the Central Bank's monetary policy that targets CPI inflation should emphasize the use of policy instruments that have direct and strong communication links with the public. Quantitative measures would have their own use, but their effectiveness would be unlikely to match that of interest rate measures, especially from a short‐term perspective.     

Hot Money Flows,Commodity Price Cycles and Financial Repression in the USA and China： The Consequences of Near-zero US Interest Rates

Under near-zero US interest rates, the international dollar standard malfunctions. Emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates are swamped with hot money inflows. Emerging market central banks intervene to prevent their currencies from rising precipitately. They lose monetary control and domestic prices begin inflating. Primary commodity prices rise worldwide unless interrupted by an international banking crisis＇. This cyclical inflation on the dollar＇s periphery only registers in the US core eonsumer price index with a long lag. The zero interest rate policy also fails to stimulate the US economy as domestic finaneial intermediation by banks and money market mutual funds is repressed. Because China is forced to keep its interest rates below market-clearing levels, it also suffers from finaneial repression, although in a form differing from that in the USA.     

Conference News 30 Years of Economic Reforms in China： Retrospect and Outlook

The Association for Chinese Economic Studies Australia （ACESA） in conjunction with China and World Economy and some other research institutions will jointly organize the ACESA＇s 20th Annual Conference in Townsville, Australia, 10-11 July 2008.     

Geographical Distribution of Foreign Investment in China：Industrial Clusters and Their Significance

The incorporation of massive amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been a major motive force behind the high-speed growth of the Chinese economy over the last decade. A high degree of geographical concentration in certain of this country is a salient feature of foreign invested enterprises (FIEs). FIEs in some industries are closely clustered in industrial zones ranging from several kilometers to more than 100 km in diameter. Such industrial clusters are a remarkable phenomenon among FDI industries. High FDI concentration is having a striking impact on the competitiveness of the enterprises involved and the regions where they are located.     

Life-insurance Efficiency in China： A Comparison of Foreign and Domestic Firms

The Chinese life-insurance industry has experienced major structural changes in recent years, primarily because of increasing demand and the entry of foreign insurers. Although the market is clearly booming, the efficiency of its growth and development is unclear. In this paper, we evaluate the efficiency of life insurers operating in China and compare foreign firms with domestic firms. We find that foreign insurers have not brought efficiency into the Chinese market, and that the market is still dominated by domestic giants. However, the gap between foreign insurers and domestic insurers is narrowing. After testing hypotheses regarding scale economy, technical progress andpotential improvements, we discuss several issues＇ of importance to life insurers, market investors and government regulators.     

Modalities of Microfinance Delivery in Asia and Latin America： Lessons for China

I. Introduction Microfinance, the provision of small size loans and other financial services to low income households, is often seen as the key innovation of the last 25 years in terms of means of reaching out to the poor and vulnerable. There is extensive experience in microfinanceprovision in both Asia and Latin America, but as yet relatively little use of the approach in China. In Section, this paper assesses different approaches to microfinance delivery using a simple threefold distincti…     

Rise of China and India in International Trade： From Textiles to New Technology

China and India are two demographic giants that have become big developing economic powers. They have maintained their specialization in textiles and developed outward-oriented sectors linked to new technologies, taking advantage of offshoring and outsourcing. Their increasing contribution to international trade is changing the world supply and demand of manufactured goods, primary goods and services. They are new leaders in the international division of labor, but beyond technological catch-up, their challenge is quality upgrading. Both countries are increasingly contributing to global economic growth, but they cannot yet trigger the growth of the rest of the world by themselves.     

Foreign Manufacturing Investment in China： The Role of Industrial Agglomeration and Industrial Linkages

This paper investigates the forces that determine the industrial distribution of foreign manufacturing investment. It highlights the importance of industrial agglomeration and industrial linkage in attracting foreign investment to manufacturing industries. Using panel data for two-digit manufacturing industries in Beijing during the period of 1999-2004, this study finds that geographically agglomerated industries with strong intra-industrial linkages are indeed attractive to foreign investment. Previous foreign investment has led to the current industrial concentration or foreign investment. Investors also favor capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, and they tend to be attracted to the most profitable and exporting industries, but avoid industries with high real labor costs and high entry barriers. Competitive local industries that possess comparative advantages are critical for attracting foreign investment. The existence of industrial clusters certainly enhances a city＇s attractiveness to foreign investment.     

Determinants of Competitiveness： Observations in China＇s Textile and Apparel Industries

This paper attempts to explore key determinants of competitiveness in the textile and apparel industries, with special reference to Chinese Mainland. The authors conduct a survey that is designed to use productivity, supply-side and demand-side determinants to measure enterprises＇ competitiveness. The collected survey data is then analyzed using factor analysis to capture the related determining factors indicative of competitiveness at the enterprise level. The findings demonstrate that government policies and related industry infrastructure are the most important determinants of competitiveness in the textile and apparel industries, followed by domestic demand. This suggests that the improvement of industry infrastructure can foster industry performance, and that more resources should be endowed to enhance the domestic business competitiveness of local enterprises. The development of domestic demand will foster the competitiveness of the textile and apparel industries on a more sustainable basis.     

Rural-urban Migration and Dynamics of Income Distribution in China： A Non-parametric Approach

Extending the income dynamics approach in Quah (2003), the present paper studies the enlarging income inequality in China over the past three decades from the viewpoint of rural–urban migration and economic transition. We establish non‐parametric estimations of rural and urban income distribution functions in China, and aggregate a population‐weighted, nationwide income distribution function taking into account rural–urban differences in technological progress and price indexes. We calculate 12 inequality indexes through non‐parametric estimation to overcome the biases in existing parametric estimation and, therefore, provide more accurate measurement of income inequality. Policy implications have been drawn based on our research.     

Changing Engines of Growth in China： From Exports, FDI and Marketization to Innovation and Exports

This paper investigates the changing sources of growth in post-reform China. Using crossprovince regressions, this paper finds that, in earlier periods, exports, foreign direct investment and marketization were significantly related to per capita income growth, whereas＇ since the late 1990s, foreign direct investment and marketization have lost their significance and have been replaced by new sources of growth, such as innovation and knowledge, with only exports continuing to be important. This finding is robust after controlling for other variables representing other economic policies and provincial characteristics. We also tackle the possible endogeneity of innovation variables using the instrumental variables estimation method.     

Evolution of Financial Institutions in Post-1978 China： Interaction between the State and Market

I. IntroductionEconomy and finance have both seen rapid development in post-1978 China. After almost three decades of economic planning and isolation, political leaders decided then to let the economy move in a new direction by announcing a policy of “reform and opening-up”. Then and now, many people did and do believe that the new policy makes the economy increasingly and decisively based on the market. At the dawn of the 21st century, theChinese economy, by many indicators, stands out as…     

Classification of Growth Clubs and Convergence： Evidence from Panel Data in China, 1981-2004

This paper uses provincial panel data to examine club convergence in China during 1981–2004. We estimate the province‐specific initial technology level, A(0), and classify the Chinese economy into “developed club” and “underdeveloped club” based on the economic characteristics of A(0), instead of on geographical location. We find significant evidence of conditional convergence across provinces, and that the convergence speed in the developed club is faster than that in the underdeveloped club. We also find that: (i) human capital accumulation contributes more than physical capital does to club convergence; (ii) there is a positive correlation between infrastructure and growth convergence at the national level and within the developed club, while the spillover effect of infrastructure has not been developed in the developing club; and (iii) the effect of economic openness on convergence is tiny, and insignificant across and within clubs.     

Size and Characteristic of Housing Bubbles in China＇s Major Cities： 1999-2010

There is some disagreement in the published literature regarding the definition and the measurement of housing bubbles in China. Extending the analytical framework of Black et al. (2006), the present paper measures the housing bubbles of China's 35 major cities from the second quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2010. The results indicate that the housing bubbles in China's 35 major cities were relatively small in the sample interval, but the bubbles in eastern metropolises, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Ningbo, have been relatively big since 2005. The changing tendency of housing bubbles in most cities highly corresponds with the changes in real estate policies. This paper decomposes the housing bubbles of the 35 cities, and finds a great proportion of irrational bubbles rather than rational intrinsic bubbles generated by price speculation. Based on empirical analysis, this paper proposes policy recommendations for preventing the generation and expansion of housing bubbles.     

Rise and Fall of the First Financial Futures Market in China： The Case of Chinese Government Bond Futures

This paper studies the rise and fall of the first financial futures market in China. We compare the characteristics in the Chinese Government bond futures market with those in the US T-bond futures market. They differ in market design and structure, market governance, margin requirements, position limits, delivery process, and the way in which the settlement price is calculated. Furthermore, with a unique dataset, we show that prior to maturities of government bond futures, traders began to accumulate significant amounts of long positions for several selected contracts without the intention to offset, forcing short position holders to either purchase deliverable bonds or offset futures at highly inflated prices, causing higher market volatility and price disequilibrium in both spot and futures markets. Arbitrage opportunity arises and the market eventually collapses. The lessons learned from the suspension of the Chinese Government bond futures market offer an invaluable learning experience.     

Does Education Still Pay Off in Rural China： Revisit the Impact of Education on Off-farm Employment and Wages

The present study considers how education affects off-farm job participation and wages. We use a nationally representative dataset from a survey conducted in 5 provinces, 101 villages and 808 households by the authors in early 2005. The empirical results show that educational attainment, skill training and years of experience of rural residents have positive, statistically significant effects on off-farm employment. The average return to a year of education is 7percent, which is higher than those observed in previous studies. We also find the return to an additional year of schooling to be higher for post-junior high schooling than for junior high and below schooling： 11.8 versus 3.2 percent. We conclude that not only does education still pays off in rural China, but also the rate of return to education is increasing over time.     

The relationship of customer complaints,satisfaction and loyalty： Evidence from China＇s mobile phone industry

Customer satisfaction and loyalty is subject to the influence of different types of customer complaints and will be with different results. In this paper, according to the hypotheses about the relationship of complaint, satisfaction and loyalty, a Structural Equation Model based on PLS （Partial Least 2 Squares） is built. By using the PLS Graph, these hypotheses are empirically tested by the data from China＇s mobile phone consumers. The study suggests that direct complaint should have a positive effect on satisfaction. However the degree of effect depends on the result of dealing with complaints. So the number of direct complaints should be controlled within the enterprise＇s ability of dealing with complaints. Meanwhile, comparing with directly complaining customers, indirectly complaining customers are more likely to repeat the purchasing and become loyal customers.     

Roots of Tomorrow＇s Digital Divide： Documenting Computer Use and Internet Access in China＇s Elementary Schools Today

This paper explores China＇s digital divide, with a focus on differences in access to computers, learning software, and the Internet at school and at home among different groups of elementary school children in China. The digital divide is examined in four different dimensions： （i） between students in urban public schools and students in rural public schools; （ii） between students in rural public schools and students in private migrant schools; （iii） between migrant students in urban public schools and migrant students in private migrant schools; and （iv） between students in Han-dominated rural areas and students in areas inhabited by ethnic minorities. Using data from a set of large-scale surveys in schools in different parts of the country, we find a wide gap between computer and Internet access of students in rural areas and those in urban public schools. The gap widens further when comparing urban students to students from minority areas. The divide is also large between urban and rural schools when examining the quality of computer instruction and access to learning software. Migration does not appear to eliminate the digital divide, unless migrant families are able to enroll their children in urban public schools. The digital divide in elementary schools may have implications for future employment, education and income inequality in China.