Economic growth and induced technical progress

Summary In this article some consequences of induced technical progress for economic growth are discussed. Technical progress is assumed to be purely labour augmenting. First the rate of technical progress is explained along lines as set out by Nordhaus. Secondly we introduce a more routine-like behaviour pattern of inventors showing a relation between expenditures for R&D on the one hand and the rate of wage increase and the growth of output on the other.The emphasis of this study lies on the exploration of the macro-economic consequences of induced technical progress. To this end a vintage model with induced technical progress is constructed, on the basis of which some steady growth variants are studied. Finally simulation, experiments are carried out to investigate the dynamic properties of the model.They are indebted to Dr. S. K. Kuipers for valuable comments.     

Engels’ pause: Technical change, capital accumulation, and inequality in the british industrial revolution

The paper reviews the macroeconomic data describing the British economy from 1760 to 1913 and shows that it passed through a two stage evolution of inequality. In the first half of the 19th century, the real wage stagnated while output per worker expanded. The profit rate doubled and the share of profits in national income expanded at the expense of labour and land. After the middle of the 19th century, real wages began to grow in line with productivity, and the profit rate and factor shares stabilized. An integrated model of growth and distribution is developed to explain these trends. The model includes an aggregate production function that explains the distribution of income, while a savings function in which savings depended on property income governs accumulation. Simulations with the model show that technical progress was the prime mover behind the industrial revolution. Capital accumulation was a necessary complement. The surge in inequality was intrinsic to the growth process: technical change increased the demand for capital and raised the profit rate and capital’s share. The rise in profits, in turn, sustained the industrial revolution by financing the necessary capital accumulation. After the middle of the 19th century, accumulation had caught up with the requirements of technology and wages rose in line with productivity.     

The empirics of growth

Summary This study explores the long-run dynamics of economic growth, with particular reference to The Netherlands. The time span covered extends backwards to the mid-nineteenth century, using new time series on disaggregated physical and human capital stocks for the period 1850-1913. Economic growth in the nineteenth century is shown to have had a strong physical capital-using bias, initially concentrated in buildings and infrastructure. The close relationship between investment in machinery and economic growth did not begin to take shape until the end of the nineteenth century, to increase in strength in the course of the twentieth century.An earlier version of this article was published as a research memorandum of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GD 12), University of Groningen, October 1994. This article is based on research sponsored by the Faculty of Economics of the University of Groningen, and by the Foundation of Economic, Social, and Spatial Sciences (ESR), which is part of The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). For helpful comments, we thank Jan Jacobs, Professor W.H. Buiter, Bart van Ark, Rainer Fremdling, participants of the Economic History colloquium at the University of Groningen and of the European Historical Economics Society's Summer School 1994 (Florence), especially Professor Alan Taylor (Northwestern University), participants of the Quantitative Economic History Conference 1995 (Cambridge U.K.), and two anonymous referees. Of course, the usual disclaimer holds.     

Causes of labour supply and demand mismatches in the Dutch building trades

Summary In this paper the significance of some hypotheses on possible causes of labour supply and demand mismatches is tested on data of the Dutch building trades by means of a UV analysis. In contrast with most other UV research this study does not refer to a search-theoretical framework, but focuses on skill differences between labour supply and demand. Three significant causes of labour market frictions appear to be: the development of the skill composition of labour demand, the apprenticeship possibilities and the relatively high wages of older workers. Some other hypotheses show weakly significant results: bumping-down processes, reschooling of unemployed older workers and the development of secondary labour market segments.At the moment of writing this paper the author was working at the Department of Economics, Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.The author would like to thank Professor J.A.M. Heijke, dr. N. van Hulst, Professor J.G. Knot, Professor J.J.M. Theeuwes and Professor A.J. Vermaat for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper and G.A. van Pruissen for his assistance in computer work.     

湖北省高新技术产业发展与就业创造

就短期而言,在增加就业和技术进步的关系上,一般认为两者存在此消彼长的对立关系。本文区分了技术进步的类型,认为高新技术产业一般表现成为产品创新而非工艺创新。这样高新技术产业的发展不仅促进了经济增长,而且创造了更多的就业机会。     

电网企业技术进步与技术效率对生产率的影响测算

为了分析电网行业的生产率受技术进步和技术效率的影响程度,使用基于DEA的Malmquist生产率指数方法,以9家省电力公司为样本,对电网企业的技术和生产效率的动态变动情况进行了研究。结果表明,2005-2010年间样本电网企业的全要素生产率年平均增长率为3.2%,技术进步的贡献大于技术效率的贡献。技术效率指数表现不优是由于多数样本企业的实际规模与最佳规模之间的偏差较大。因此为了提高我国电网企业生产率,关键是提升效率特别是规模效率。     

Tinbergen's work: Change and continuity

Summary This article provides an overview of Tinbergen's economic writings, comprising well over 900 publications. Six broad areas have been distinguished to allow for the classification and discussion of Tinbergen's economic work. These six areas embody the change in Tinbergen's areas of interest apart from the shift from physics to economics early in his career. Tinbergen's work, however, is not only characterised by change of areas but also by continuity in approach. To mark this continuity four main characteristics of Tinbergen's work have been elaborated. The article concludes with Tinbergen's observations on the achievements to be expected from scientific research.J. Kol is Associate Professor of International Economics and Economic Integration at the Faculty of Economics of the Erasmus University in Rotterdam; P. de Wolff is Emeritus Professor at the University of Amsterdam and was Director of the Central Planning Bureau in The Hague as successor of J. Tinbergen. The authors are grateful to Mrs. I.M. Lageweg and Mr C.J. van Opijnen for their assistance with references.     

Unemployment on account of market imperfection in the Netherlands since the second world war

Summary By means ofUV analysis it has been attempted to gain some insight into the development of unemployment on account of market imperfection in the Netherlands between 1956 and 1975. Three conclusions can be drawn. (i) The imperfection of the labour market has increased not inconsiderably between 1956 and 1975. (ii) Since the beginning of the Seventies structural unemployment has been caused both by the qualitative discrepancies between supply and demand and by a quantitative shortage of jobs. (iii) The increase in market imperfection must be ascribed above all to the steadily growing imperfection of the sections of the labour market corresponding to the occupational groups.[/p]Professor of Economics and Graduate Assistant, Universtiy of Groningen, The Netherlands.The authors would like to thank Professor Th. van de Klundert and their colleagues of the Department of Economics for their valuable comments on the first version of this article.     

基于时变随机前沿生产函数的上海工业增长因素分析

本文应用时变随机前沿生产函数和行业面板数据．测算出1995-2004年上海工业32个行业的动态劳动、资本产出弹性，技术进步率和技术效率变化率；在此基础上进一步得到各因素对工业产值增长的贡献度。主要结论是：（1）上海工业增长主要依赖资本投入的高速增长和加速的技术进步率；（2）资本增长比技术进步对上海工业产值的增长有更大的贡献度，而要实现工业可持续增长，必须依靠更快的技术进步；（3）上海工业总体的技术效率变化率向下变化，说明市场自由竞争的加剧导致了不同行业或企业的技术效率差距在拉大．这有利于行业资源优化配置和上海工业可持续发展。     

Economie en vooruitgangsidee

Summary The object of this article is the relation between economic science and the idea of progress in western civilization. That relation can clearly be observed in classical economic theory (influenced by the Enlightment) and the modern theory of growth (Golden Age Economics). The author rejects any identification of economic progress with an unlimited increase of GNP. He proposes a link between the idea of economic progress and the divine mandate of stewardship, which implies that the inter-subjective scarcity of non-renewable resources and environmental factors should constantly be taken into account. He concludes with some remarks about economic growth as a goal of economic policy.

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Rede uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van gewoon hoogleraar aan de Vrije Universiteit op 10 maart 1972.     

Theo van de Klundert: A frontier economist

Summary Twenty-five years ago, Dr. Theo van de Klundert was appointed as Professor of Economics at Tillburg University. On the occassion of this jubilee the authors review Van de Klundert's contribution to the study of economic science in the The Netherlands. The article focuses on four topics: (1) growth and income distribution, (2) capital theory, resource economics and trade, (3) controversies between Keynesians and (4) open economy macroeconomics. A short remark is made about his teaching. Van de Klundert is praised for the quality and the comprehension of his scientific work.The authors are grateful to S.K. Kuipers and M. Peeters for their useful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

中国新能源上市公司全要素生产率动态变化实证研究

文章从投入产出角度,运用DEA-Malmquist指数法对中国新能源上市公司的全要素生产率动态变化及其分解进行了测算。研究表明2006－2011年间中国新能源上市公司的全要素生产率增长水平较低,平均增长率仅为1.5％。增长的源泉主要是技术进步,技术效率的下降在一定程度上抵消了技术进步带来的效果。最后从不同类型新能源公司视角出发,分析了不同类型新能源公司全要素生产率变化、技术效率变化、技术进步之间的差异性。     

基于SFA的我国中东部经济发展效率差异性的实证分析

以10个省1999—2008年的面板数据为基础,运用基于超越对数的随机前沿生产函数模型,分析了中东部经济发展的技术效率、技术进步和全要素生产率,研究发现:中部的技术效率和技术进步要低于东部,中部对资本和劳动力投入的依存度较大,但中部的效率变化值很大,导致全要素生产率大于东部,中东部经济发展差异存在着减小的趋势。     

Germany’s Stalling Economic Engine – How to Get it Running Again

Summary The German economy, once the powerhouse in Europe, is stalling. Unemployment has ratcheted upward since 1970, the social security systems can no longer be financed (even if the population were not ageing) and with an average annual GDP growth rate of 1.2 per cent since 1995, the economy almost stagnates. This paper analyses and suggests solutions to Germany’s three main challenges. To undo the adverse incentives with respect to unemployment, the institutional design for wage formation should be decentralized, the reservation wage adjusted and the tax on labour reduced. To make the social security systems sustainable, the level of social absorption has to be lowered. And, finally, to achieve a more dynamic economy, new stimuli for growth have to be unleashed, including human capital formation and innovation, which are vital for the knowledge society. The role of government has to be rethought and the German social market economy redefined. Jelle Zijlstra Professorial Fellow at the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study during September 2004–January 2005, Agip Professor in International Economics at Johns Hopkins in Bologna and President-Emeritus, Kiel Institute of World Economics. The paper is a revised version of the Jelle Zijlstra Lecture, held on January 13, 2005 at the Free University of Amsterdam.     

The relation between international capital flows and interest rates: A theoretical analysis

Summary Commonly, macro trade models which analyze the effects of governmental policies assumed that the rate of the international flow of capital is dependent upon international interest rates. This paper demonstrates that such a specification is inconsistent with the assumption of arbitrage in securities internationally.This is demonstrated first within a conventional static macro trade model, second within a class of dynamic models where short-run capital flows, but not total capital flows, depend upon interest rate levels, and, finally, within a general portfolio macro trade framework.We recommend the assumption of international arbitrage behavior.The authors are respectively Visiting Associate Professor of Economics at University of California at Santa Barbara, California and Professor of Economics at Wayne State University. We wish to gratefully acknowledge the suggestions and criticisms of Dr. S. K. Kuipers.     

The European economy in an expanding world

Summary Postwar economic development in Europe can be subdivided in two periods. In the first subperiod 1950–1973 growth is determined by catching up vis-d-vis the US. The second subperiod 1973–1993 is characterised by a reorientation with respect to the international division of labour. This sets the stage for future developments, which are presented in the form of three different scenarios. In the European Decline scenario Europe cannot match developments in the US and Japan. As appears from a scenario called Fortress Europe import protection provides no sensible solution. To compete on a world scale Europe needs more technological dynamics as sketched in the European Recovery scenario. Calculations of future paths are based on the WorldScan model of the Central Planning Bureau.Theo van de Klundert is Professor of Economics at Tilburg University. Ben Geurts and Hans Timmer are staff members of the Central Planning Bureau, The Hague. We are indebted to Martin Fase and Simon Kuipers for useful comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

Domestic service,gender, and wages in rural England,c.1700–18601

Domestic service was a vital occupational sector in England in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries—particularly for women. This article uses a new series of wage observations from across England, focusing on rural areas. Analysis of the dataset shows that wages paid to servants in rural England slightly increased over the period considered, but at uneven rates dependent on region and precise occupation of servant. The majority of servants, particularly maids, did not experience any significant increase in the wages they were paid. This article also shows a widening wage gap between male and female servants. When differences between regions were analysed, it was shown that the wages paid to servants did not match the model of the north becoming the high wage zone of England by the mid‐nineteenth century, although rates of growth there were the highest. For servants the south generally remained an area of higher wages even in the mid‐nineteenth century. Geography was probably not the key variable in determining wage levels. The type of household in which a servant was employed was more important than where it was located. The most important variables were the servants' gender, and their occupations in the household.     

农业全要素生产率时间演变及区域差异研究——基于江苏省的实证分析

基于江苏省13个地级市的农业投入产出面板数据,运用DEA-Malmquist方法,对江苏农业全要素生产率进行了实证分析。结果表明,2001-2014年间江苏省农业技术进步增长幅度较大,而技术效率变动呈现递减态势,农业TFP增长主要是靠技术进步推动的,且江苏农业TFP增长率及其构成存在显著的地区差异,苏南农业TFP增速明显高于苏中和苏北地区。     

FDI、知识溢出与生产率增长——基于DEA方法和状态空间模型的经验研究

本文利用DEA方法对中国全要素生产率进行了测算,在此基础上建立国际知识溢出分析框架,检验了基于FDI渠道的国外知识资本对全要素生产率的溢出效应。结果表明:国内知识资本和基于FDI渠道的国外知识资本对TFP增长起到显著的促进作用;通过对TFP进行分解发现,两者对技术进步促进作用明显,对技术效率影响微弱;采用状态空间模型进一步分析发现,于FDI渠道的国外知识资本对TFP的贡献度在不断上升。     

The Spread of Industry: Spatial Agglomeration in Economic Development

This paper describes the spread of industry from country to country as a region grows. All industrial sectors are initially agglomerated in one country, tied together by input–output links between firms. Growth expands industry more than other sectors, bidding up wages in the country in which industry is clustered. At some point firms start to move away, and when a critical mass is reached industry expands into another country, raising wages there. We establish the circumstances in which industry spills over, which sectors move out first, and which are more important in triggering a critical mass.J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1996,10(4), pp. 440–464. Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics; and London School of Economics and Centre for Economic Policy Research.