全球增长周期变化 经济“拐点”风险凸现——专访经济金融专家黄小鹏

次贷危机、衰退、通胀飙升、大宗商品泡沫、金融动荡——这些令人心惊肉跳的词汇从去年开始频繁地登上了全球财经媒体的头条位置。人们持续多年的乐观情绪仿佛一夜之间被接踵而至的麻烦所取代。中国企业界应如何面对,为此本刊特别联系北京趋势宏观研究公司黄小鹏,请他从三个方面进行分析。     

从流动性拐点理解经济拐点

正中国的货币政策同时针对增长、通胀和房价等多重目标,而通胀在2011年年底降至4.1%,这意味着货币政策转向已成为必然。货币政策转向的第一步是货币宽松,以3年期央票利率的下调为标志,从1年期央票利率的下调及降准得到确认。货币政策转向的第二步是信贷宽松,利率下降有利于信贷需求恢复,而2011年12月信贷的同比多增或意味银行信贷额度的上升。若信贷     

经济增长方式出现“拐点”的结论为时过早

就经济增长的“三驾马车”的贡献看,虽然相关的经济统计数据是一个重要判断指标,但对处于转型期的我国,经济增长所依赖的主要是出口与投资,消费虽然也在增长,但与经济发展的要求仍然有着一定的距离。在此条件下,对我国经济增长方式是否出现“拐点”的判断,就不能简单地照搬发达经济地区的标准。再从消费角度看,只有当一个国家与地区的消费,投资、出口这“三驾马车”对经济的拉动呈现平衡状态时,     

商业银行如何应对经济增长下行周期

中国经济增长进入下行周期 今年年初以来,受美国次贷危机等一系列内外部因素的影响,中国经济已伴随全球经济进入下行周期.中国经济增速的回落成为当前经济进入新一轮调整的明显标志.一方面净出口对经济增长的贡献明显下降.今年以来出口增速下降,贸易顺差缩小,进出口贸易,特别是出口对经济增长的拉动作用明显下降,今年上半年实际出口增长10.8%,由去年20.1%的速度减半;另一方面国内需求存在下滑,特别是住房等消费热点面临调整,消费需求增速出现调整.经过连续几年的价格暴涨和需求扩张之后,今年房地产需求进入调整期.如果房地产市场出现巨幅动荡或收缩,支持中国经济增长的消费需求必将回调.     

美元处在波动周期的拐点

美元作为世界主要货币,一直以来备受关注,尤其是在国际金融市场复苏的交替阶段,美元走势再次成为大家争论的焦点。笔者认为,短期看,2010年中期前美元将收复失地,长期看,美元在2011年将重回弱势。根据美元的周期性特点,预计美元后市将呈现M型的走势,目前时点正处于进入M型的右半边拐点上。     

美元处在波动周期的拐点

美元作为世界主要货币,一直以来备受关注,尤其是在国际金融市场复苏的交替阶段,美元走势再次成为大家争论的焦点。笔者认为,短期看,2010年中期前美元将收复失地,长期看,美元在2011年将重回弱势。根据美元的周期性特点,预计美元后市将呈现M型的走势,目前时点正处于进入M型的右半边拐点上。     

外贸增长方式面临拐点

贸易摩擦进入高发期从西班牙火烧中国鞋、俄罗斯3·12拉鞋”事件、欧洲排斥我国家,到美国在纺织品问题上纠缠不休—随着物美价廉的“中国制造”商占据进口国越来越多的市场份额,易争端频频出现在媒体上。商务部副部长高虎城说,目前世上每7起反倾销案件中就有1起涉我国,这使得我     

中国经济进入“缓慢增长期”

中国政府4月15日称,中国已进入经济增长较慢的时期,必须适应持续30年的两位数年度经济增长时代的结束。中国国家统计局数据显示,今年首季中国经济同比增长意外放缓至7．7％。“我们国家经过30多}年的发展以后,潜在的生产率跟以往比是有所下降,”国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运表示。“像德国、日本、韩国在经济转型期都曾经出现过综合增长率下一个台阶的现象。”     

The Firm Size Effect and the Economic Cycle

Small firms have, on average, lower return on assets and higher leverage than do large firms. Small firms tend to do well in good economic conditions but to perform poorly in the worst economic conditions. We investigate the hypothesis that the small firm effect is manifest in the expansion phase of the economic cycle but not in the contraction phase. The empirical results of our study confirm the hypothesis for 1976–95. We use the alpha, residual, and regression methods in testing the hypothesis.     

投资规模对经济周期的作用

近些年来,世界各主要经济体都实施积极宽松的财政金融政策,短期拉动了经济增长或延缓了经济下滑,但其对经济周期的中长期效应,已引起各方高度关注。本文着重对投资规模增长率对经济周期的作用进行研究。     

Realizing the Potential of Real Options: Does Theory Meet Practice?

The idea of viewing corporate investment opportunities as “real options” has been around for over 25 years. Real options concepts and techniques now routinely appear in academic research in finance and economics, and have begun to influence scholarly work in virtually every business discipline, including strategy, organizations, management science, operations management, information systems, accounting, and marketing. Real options concepts have also made considerable headway in practice. Corporate managers are more likely to recognize options in their strategic planning process, and have become more proactive in designing flexibility into projects and contracts, frequently using real options vocabulary in their discussions. Thanks in part to the spread of real options thinking, today's strategic planners are more likely than their predecessors to recognize the “option” value of actions like the following: ? dividing up large projects into a number of stages; ? investing in the acquisition or production of information; ? introducing “modularity” in manufacturing and design; ? developing competing prototypes for new products; and ? investing in overseas markets. But if real options has clearly succeeded as a way of thinking, the application of real options valuation methods has been limited to companies in relatively few industries and has thus failed to live up to expectations created in the mid‐ to late‐1990s. Increased corporate acceptance and implementations of real options valuation techniques will require several changes coming together. On the theory side, we need more realistic models that better reflect differences between financial and real options, simple heuristic methods that can be more easily implemented (but that have been carefully benchmarked against more precise models), and better guidance on implementation issues such as the estimation of discount rates for the “optionless” underlying projects. On the practitioner side, we need user‐friendly real options software, more senior‐level buy‐in, more deliberate diffusion of real options knowledge throughout organizations, better alignment of managerial incentives with long‐term shareholder value, and better‐designed contracts to correct the misalignment of incentives across the value chain. If these challenges can be met, there will continue to be a steady if gradual diffusion of real options analysis throughout organizations over the next few decades, with real options eventually becoming not only a standard part of corporate strategic planning, but also the primary valuation tool for assessing the expected shareholder effect of large capital investment projects.     

美国经济增长的源泉

本文分析了美国信息技术生产行业、使用行业和非信息技术行业对综合产值增长和综合劳动生产率的贡献情况。结论表明:美国经济增长主要源于资本和劳动力投入的增长,其中,资本投入增长更为重要。劳动生产率提高的相对重要性低于资本和劳动力投入增长,但它是美国经济持续增长所必需的。信息技术生产行业是美国劳动生产率提高的最重要来源。     

Share Holder Wealth Effects of Corporate Selloffs: Impact of Growth Opportunities, Economic Cycle and Bargaining Power

Most of the existing empirical evidence on corporate selloffs documents significant wealth gains for the seller's shareholders. We investigate the sources of these wealth gains by examining the impact of business and financial strategy, the economic environment during selloff, and the bargaining advantages of the seller including information asymmetry. We find evidence that sellers with growth opportunities and financially strong sellers enjoy higher returns. Selloffs during recessions generate larger wealth gains than those during economic boom. Information asymmetry due to the buyer's location being different from the purchased division's gives the seller a bargaining advantage leading to larger wealth gains. Relatively large divestments are more beneficial to seller shareholders than small ones. The study highlights the importance of both firm specific and environmental factors in explaining the wealth gains associated with corporate selloffs.     

远离增长 关爱改革

正基于需求刺激的增长就像吸食毒品,带来暂时的舒适,却留下无穷的问题。刺激的扭曲在于,释放错误的需求信号,诱导错误的产能安排,在这种环境中,某种被刺激着的需求呈现高增长,企业家一旦误认为高增长延续,就会安排不恰当的扩大再生产的再投资。由于刺激总是暂时性的、必然消退的因素,随着时间的推移,刺激政策将不再实施,供需的不匹配状态由此更加严重,通胀、投资所借资金能否顺利归还等多种经济病因随之产生     

以结构调整促进经济增长—对农行河南省分行支持农业和农村经济结构调整情况的调查

近年来，农业银行河南省分行在加速向商业银行转轨过程中，坚持防范和化解金融风险与支持地方经济发展并重，以促进银行与地方经济发展为主题，以结构调整为主线，以结构调整促进经济增长，走出了一条金融与经济发展的“双赢”之路。