全球增长周期变化 经济“拐点”风险凸现——专访经济金融专家黄小鹏

次贷危机、衰退、通胀飙升、大宗商品泡沫、金融动荡——这些令人心惊肉跳的词汇从去年开始频繁地登上了全球财经媒体的头条位置。人们持续多年的乐观情绪仿佛一夜之间被接踵而至的麻烦所取代。中国企业界应如何面对，为此本刊特别联系北京趋势宏观研究公司黄小鹏，请他从三个方面进行分析。     

从流动性拐点理解经济拐点

正中国的货币政策同时针对增长、通胀和房价等多重目标,而通胀在2011年年底降至4.1%,这意味着货币政策转向已成为必然。货币政策转向的第一步是货币宽松,以3年期央票利率的下调为标志,从1年期央票利率的下调及降准得到确认。货币政策转向的第二步是信贷宽松,利率下降有利于信贷需求恢复,而2011年12月信贷的同比多增或意味银行信贷额度的上升。若信贷     

商业银行如何应对经济增长下行周期

中国经济增长进入下行周期 今年年初以来,受美国次贷危机等一系列内外部因素的影响,中国经济已伴随全球经济进入下行周期.中国经济增速的回落成为当前经济进入新一轮调整的明显标志.一方面净出口对经济增长的贡献明显下降.今年以来出口增速下降,贸易顺差缩小,进出口贸易,特别是出口对经济增长的拉动作用明显下降,今年上半年实际出口增长10.8%,由去年20.1%的速度减半;另一方面国内需求存在下滑,特别是住房等消费热点面临调整,消费需求增速出现调整.经过连续几年的价格暴涨和需求扩张之后,今年房地产需求进入调整期.如果房地产市场出现巨幅动荡或收缩,支持中国经济增长的消费需求必将回调.     

经济增长方式出现“拐点”的结论为时过早

就经济增长的“三驾马车”的贡献看，虽然相关的经济统计数据是一个重要判断指标，但对处于转型期的我国，经济增长所依赖的主要是出口与投资，消费虽然也在增长，但与经济发展的要求仍然有着一定的距离。在此条件下，对我国经济增长方式是否出现“拐点”的判断，就不能简单地照搬发达经济地区的标准。再从消费角度看，只有当一个国家与地区的消费，投资、出口这“三驾马车”对经济的拉动呈现平衡状态时，     

美元处在波动周期的拐点

美元作为世界主要货币,一直以来备受关注,尤其是在国际金融市场复苏的交替阶段,美元走势再次成为大家争论的焦点。笔者认为,短期看,2010年中期前美元将收复失地,长期看,美元在2011年将重回弱势。根据美元的周期性特点,预计美元后市将呈现M型的走势,目前时点正处于进入M型的右半边拐点上。     

美元处在波动周期的拐点

美元作为世界主要货币,一直以来备受关注,尤其是在国际金融市场复苏的交替阶段,美元走势再次成为大家争论的焦点。笔者认为,短期看,2010年中期前美元将收复失地,长期看,美元在2011年将重回弱势。根据美元的周期性特点,预计美元后市将呈现M型的走势,目前时点正处于进入M型的右半边拐点上。     

外贸增长方式面临拐点

贸易摩擦进入高发期从西班牙火烧中国鞋、俄罗斯3·12拉鞋”事件、欧洲排斥我国家,到美国在纺织品问题上纠缠不休—随着物美价廉的“中国制造”商占据进口国越来越多的市场份额,易争端频频出现在媒体上。商务部副部长高虎城说,目前世上每7起反倾销案件中就有1起涉我国,这使得我     

经济增长下行周期中商业银行的经营策略研究

本文指示,美国次贷危机只是导致全球经济增长下滑的导火索,本轮全球经济增长步入了周期性调整,其本质原因在于决定经济周期的三股核心力量发生了根本性的转折。面对宏观形势的变化,商业银行应认真审视各项业务面临的挑战,积极调整业务结构,采取多项应对措施,以经受经济周期性波动的考验。     

The Firm Size Effect and the Economic Cycle

Small firms have, on average, lower return on assets and higher leverage than do large firms. Small firms tend to do well in good economic conditions but to perform poorly in the worst economic conditions. We investigate the hypothesis that the small firm effect is manifest in the expansion phase of the economic cycle but not in the contraction phase. The empirical results of our study confirm the hypothesis for 1976–95. We use the alpha, residual, and regression methods in testing the hypothesis.     

投资规模对经济周期的作用

近些年来,世界各主要经济体都实施积极宽松的财政金融政策,短期拉动了经济增长或延缓了经济下滑,但其对经济周期的中长期效应,已引起各方高度关注。本文着重对投资规模增长率对经济周期的作用进行研究。     

The Relevance of Asset Revaluations over an Economic Cycle

The results of tests reported in this paper show that asset revaluations accounted for in accordance with AAS 10/AASB 1010 provide information that is consistent with the information set used by investors in pricing the shares of a sample of Australian listed firms. The "value relevance" of asset revaluations occurs in periods of both rising and declining asset prices.     

经济双循环背景下中小企业的机遇、挑战与成长的着力点

经济双循环是党和国家根据国内外复杂政治经济形势而提出的新发展格局,这一战略一方面给中小企业创造良好的发展机会,新消费需求扩容增效以及新一轮基建将给中小企业尤其是科技型中小企业带来重大发展机遇,中小企业依附核心企业发展的动能增加,小微金融有望得到快速发展,内贸型中小企业将迎来更加稳定的发展环境。但另一方面双循环战略也给中小企业造成一定的冲击,其中出口型中小企业可能发生断单与断链现象,传统落后行业的中小企业将加速被市场淘汰,不积极参与供应链的中小企业将难以持久。为此,中小企业应该积极转变观念;外贸型中小企业积极将出口产品转内销;跨境电商打通消费通道,挖掘新的消费需求。政府部门继续加强固定资产投资,扩大国内消费需求度;努力优化营商环境,提高政企的密切度;持续扶持中小企业,提高员工收入水平。金融机构应加强产品研发,积极推出线上化产品,深入发展供应链金融业务。     

从经济周期理论到金融周期理论的演变背景

从西方经济周期研究的理论源流看,各经济学流派的经济周期思想都是为当时政府熨平经济波动、稳定宏观经济服务的。2008年国际金融危机之后,金融周期开始从经济周期研究领域独立出来,逐渐形成一套成熟的理论体系。产业背景的转变、科技进步及金融监管的放宽、法律制度对金融产权的保护等因素,共同推动了从经济周期理论到金融周期理论的演变。在金融科技加快重塑金融生态的当下,金融周期变得更为复杂,研究金融周期可为当局防控经济危机提供有效服务。     

新经济增长理论与中国经济增长

新经济增长理论是在新古典经济增长理论缺陷的基础上产生的,它将知识和技术内生化,把知识、技术和人力资本引人经济增长模型,来说明经济实现长期持续增长的关键问题是技术进步和人力资本投资,因此,保护知识产权、投资教育、提高研究开发的人力资本存量等的政策含义,无疑会对当前中国经济如何实现长期持续增长具有理论和现实意义.     

Realizing the Potential of Real Options: Does Theory Meet Practice?

The idea of viewing corporate investment opportunities as “real options” has been around for over 25 years. Real options concepts and techniques now routinely appear in academic research in finance and economics, and have begun to influence scholarly work in virtually every business discipline, including strategy, organizations, management science, operations management, information systems, accounting, and marketing. Real options concepts have also made considerable headway in practice. Corporate managers are more likely to recognize options in their strategic planning process, and have become more proactive in designing flexibility into projects and contracts, frequently using real options vocabulary in their discussions. Thanks in part to the spread of real options thinking, today's strategic planners are more likely than their predecessors to recognize the “option” value of actions like the following: ? dividing up large projects into a number of stages; ? investing in the acquisition or production of information; ? introducing “modularity” in manufacturing and design; ? developing competing prototypes for new products; and ? investing in overseas markets. But if real options has clearly succeeded as a way of thinking, the application of real options valuation methods has been limited to companies in relatively few industries and has thus failed to live up to expectations created in the mid‐ to late‐1990s. Increased corporate acceptance and implementations of real options valuation techniques will require several changes coming together. On the theory side, we need more realistic models that better reflect differences between financial and real options, simple heuristic methods that can be more easily implemented (but that have been carefully benchmarked against more precise models), and better guidance on implementation issues such as the estimation of discount rates for the “optionless” underlying projects. On the practitioner side, we need user‐friendly real options software, more senior‐level buy‐in, more deliberate diffusion of real options knowledge throughout organizations, better alignment of managerial incentives with long‐term shareholder value, and better‐designed contracts to correct the misalignment of incentives across the value chain. If these challenges can be met, there will continue to be a steady if gradual diffusion of real options analysis throughout organizations over the next few decades, with real options eventually becoming not only a standard part of corporate strategic planning, but also the primary valuation tool for assessing the expected shareholder effect of large capital investment projects.     

美国经济增长的源泉

本文分析了美国信息技术生产行业、使用行业和非信息技术行业对综合产值增长和综合劳动生产率的贡献情况。结论表明:美国经济增长主要源于资本和劳动力投入的增长,其中,资本投入增长更为重要。劳动生产率提高的相对重要性低于资本和劳动力投入增长,但它是美国经济持续增长所必需的。信息技术生产行业是美国劳动生产率提高的最重要来源。     

The Industry Life Cycle,Acquisitions and Investment: Does Firm Organization Matter?

We examine the effect of industry life‐cycle stages on within‐industry acquisitions and capital expenditures by conglomerates and single‐segment firms controlling for endogeneity of organizational form. We find greater differences in acquisitions than in capital expenditures, which are similar across organizational types. In particular, 36% of the growth recorded by conglomerate segments in growth industries comes from acquisitions, versus 9% for single‐segment firms. In growth industries, the effect of financial dependence on acquisitions and plant openings is mitigated for conglomerate firms. Plants acquired by conglomerate firms increase in productivity. The results suggest that organizational forms' comparative advantages differ across industry conditions.