Capital utilization and capital accumulation: Theory and evidence

A firm may acquire additional capital input by purchasing new capital or by increasing the utilization of its current capital. The margin between capital accumulation and capital utilization is studied in a model of dynamic factor demand where the firm chooses capital, labour and their rates of utilization. A direct measure of capital utilization-the work week of capital-is incorporated into the theory and estimates. The estimates imply that capital stock is costly to adjust while the work week of capital is essentially costless to adjust. The estimated response of the capital stock to changes in its price and in the required rate of return is more rapid than found in other estimates.     

Evaluating the impacts of human capital stocks and accumulation on economic growth: some new evidence

"Various hypotheses have been put forward in recent years concerning the contribution of human capital to economic growth. This paper argues that school enrolment rates--by far the most commonly used human capital measure in growth regressions attempting to test these hypotheses--conflate human capital stock and accumulation effects and lead to misinterpretations of the role of labour force growth. An alternative education-related human capital measure is constructed which is capable of distinguishing between stocks and flows. Applying this measure to samples of developed and less developed countries during the 1960-85 period suggests not only that there are important growth effects associated both with 'initial' stocks of, and subsequent growth in, human capital, but also that this new measure out-performs the simple school enrolment rates used in previous analyses."     

Money,inflation, and causality (a look at the empirical evidence for the U.S., 1974–1983)

This paper uses two Wiener-Granger causality tests, the Granger direct and the Sims lagged dependent variable tests. These tests evaluate the null hypothesis of a lack of Wiener-Granger causality from the percentage changes in each of three monetary aggregates, M1, M2, and MB (monetary base), to the percentage change in consumer and producer prices for the U.S. during the sample period May-1974 to December-1983. The results of the two tests are mixed regarding the one-way causal nature of the pairwise relationships investigated. Overall, the results of the two tests have important implications for the composition of the information sets upon which optimal inflationary expectations would have been conditioned for the time period analyzed. The results also illustrate the potential problem inherent in basing causal inferences on the findings of just one causality test in finite samples.     

The baby boom and the housing market: Another look at the evidence

Based on tests for cointegration, the growth of housing demand resulting from the Baby Boom appears to be the major factor behind increased real residential investment, but not the major factor behind increased real housing prices in the postwar U.S. The housing market also passes a simple test for efficiency.     

Globals,mutables, and immutables: a new look at the micro-macro link

Past work on the micro-macro problem has often been divisive, with scholars championing either the micro or macro position, and arguing against the other. This work has often stressed the uniqueness of one position (e.g., emphasizing emergence in the macro position or reduction to the micro). There is a recent resurgence of interest, with emphasis on cooperative and integrative attempts to forge a micro-macro link. A review of the literature shows both micro, subjective approaches to the problem, as well as macro-structural approaches, but with an emphasis on the micro. The bulk of the analyses are qualitative. There is a small literature on external or nonsubjective (including quantitative) approaches. The purpose of the paper is to add to the external literature in a way that will complement the qualitative approaches while also being sensitive to the relation between theory and method. The concepts of global macro variables, immutable and mutable micro variables, and immutable distributions are presented. The mutable distribution is the true external link between micro and macro. The mutable distributions have dual micro-macro properties, being formed from the allocation of the individuals in the population into the positions of the respective globals. An individual's position in the multidimensional global structure depends upon his or her particular set of mutable characteristics.Preparation of this paper was partially supported by UCLA Academic Senate Research Grant No. 2884.     

A new look at the two-mode problem

This paper considers the second-best policy problem that arises when auto travel is priced below its marginal cost and there is a substitute mass transit mode. We analyze the problem by combining a model of a rail line based on Kraus and Yoshida (J. Urban Econ. 51 (2002) 170) with the highway bottleneck model. The model involves a transit authority which optimizes, in addition to the fare, two dimensions of transit capacity. These are (1) the number of train units serving the route and (2) the capacity of an individual train unit. Under a very weak condition, second-best optimality involves expanding both dimensions of transit capacity. The larger percentage effect is on train capacity.     

The new currency boards and discretion: empirical evidence from Bulgaria

In recent years, a number of countries have introduced currency boards (CBs). Gaining in swing and popularity, this new generation CB preserves, to varying degrees, the Central Bank’s ability to function as the lender of last resort (LOLR) and to intervene in case of systemic risk. Recently, Central Bank flexibility has been preserved in different forms in Hong Kong, Argentina, Estonia, Lithuania and Bulgaria. Macro- and microeconomic implications of such departures from orthodox CBs have not been thoroughly studied yet. Theoretically, the introduction of this second-generation CB provides an opportunity for conducting discretionary monetary policy (though certainly not in its typical form). Some major, ensuing questions require answers. What are the new channels of monetary policy? Does an orthodox self-regulating (automatic) mechanism work with second-generation CBs? How are monetary disequilibria in the economy adjusted? We define an automatic mechanism as “the presence of a positive cointegration relationship between the overall balance of payments (BOPs) and the reserve money, and the absence of discretionary variables in the model.” The theoretical hypothesis is checked empirically based on Bulgarian data.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan

The present article uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to identify the long run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Toda Yamamoto and Wald-test causality tests have identified the direction of the causal relationship between these two variables in the case of Pakistan in the period between 1971 and 2008. Ng-Perron and Clement-Montanes-Reyes unit root tests are used to handle the problem of integrating orders for variables. The results suggest that the two variables are in a long run equilibrium relationship and economic growth leads to electricity consumption and not vice versa.     

A new look at performance appraisal: The specimen check-list

The specimen check-list represents a breakthrough in appraisal because its format minimizes appraiser-errors common in rating, ranking, and essay appraisal methods. The specimen check-list requires the appraiser to diagnostically report behavioral incidents observed, based upon prompted recall.     

Capital accumulation and regulation

This paper sets up a dynamic model that analyzes a bank's capital decision and the impact of this decision on her default risk and lending that affects aggregate output in the economy under regulation. The model shows that even though capital regulation may reduce the default risk of the bank, it may lead to credit crunch, hence the ensuing decline in output in the real sector. Furthermore, it appears that the risk-based capital requirement changes the composition of both liability and asset of the bank's balance sheet.     

Does immigration affect wages? A look at occupation-level evidence

Previous research has reached mixed conclusions about the effect of higher levels of immigration on the wages of natives. This paper reexamines this question using data from the Current Population Survey and the Immigration and Naturalization Service and focuses on differential effects by skill level. Using occupation as a proxy for skill, we find that an increase in the fraction of foreign-born workers tends to lower the wages of natives in blue collar occupations—particularly after controlling for endogeneity—but does not have a statistically significant negative effect among natives in skilled occupations. The results also indicate that immigrants adjusting their immigration status within the U.S., but not newly arriving immigrants, have a significant negative impact on the wages of low-skilled natives. This suggests that immigrants become closer substitutes for natives as they spend more time in the U.S.     

Testing the higher education-led growth hypothesis in a small island: an empirical investigation from a new version of the Solow growth model

This study employs a new version of the Solow Growth Model in order to investigate the higher education-led growth (HELG) hypothesis in the case of North Cyprus. Results reveal that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between real income growth of North Cyprus and its determinants, namely capital, labor, and the higher education sector. Results show that real income growth converges to its long-term equilibrium level by 10.9 %. Granger causality tests suggest undirectional causality from higher education growth to real income growth in North Cyprus. Therefore, the HELG hypothesis can be inferred for the Turkish Cypriot economy.     

A new look at the relationship between time-series and structural econometric models

This paper examines the relationship between dynamic structural econometric models (SEM) and time series (TS) models. It extends the work of others by suggesting a reconciliation of SEM and TS models based on classical linear parameter restrictions in regression models rather than on time series methods. The paper demonstrates that in a number of common economic contexts there exist sets of plausible restrictions on the stochastic properties of the disturbances and on the dynamic adjustment processes in a SEM such that familiar structural models take on the form of univariate TS models. Consequently, it is argued that TS models should not be arbitrarily dismissed as being devoid of economic content.     

北京历史上的风沙灾害

通过对有关史料的梳理、辨析,回顾了北京历史上风沙灾害的发生情况,分析了自北魏以降不同历史时期北京地区风沙灾害的特点及成因,并对当前北京的风沙灾害治理提出了设想与建议。