基于倒向随机微分方程的非寿险定价实证研究——以广东财产险为例

文章利用保费收取与赔付问的时滞．考虑投资风险收益和赔付的分布建立倒向随机微分方程。以给出更具竞争力的非寿险定价模型。一方面利用近年来各风险资产的收益与风险数据,计算出最优投资组合：另一方面对赔付率数据进行时间序列分析,利用广东省财产险近三年的保费收入与赔付数据,讨论赔付率随月份变化所呈现的规律性。     

完善河北省农业保险对策研究

本文对河北省农业保险现状及存在问题进行了深入分析,就农业保险在赔付率、供给及财政税收政策等方面进行了分析,并在此基础上对完善河北省农业保险提出了具体对策。     

非寿险公司赔付率应用与机构考核建议

赔付率作为非寿险业内关注的重要指标,在机构管理与考核中经常使用。然而,由于各部门的关注点不同,对保费、赔款等数据的统计口径不同,使用的赔付率含义也有所区别。本文旨在概述各种赔付率的基础上,针对机构考核提出相关建议。     

我国农业保险保费的最优补贴率研究——基于激励与约束机制

农业保险是分散农业风险的一种有效手段,多国的保险实践证明没有政府支持的农业保险无法实现有效市场化.政府对农业保险的支持,特别是财政支持,也即农业保险保费补贴率,很大程度上影响着农业保险的发展,值得深入探究.本文从供求理论和价格歧视理论出发,将现代企业管理中的激励与约束机制与保费补贴率问题相结合,探究我国农业保险保费最优补贴率.研究发现,农业保险最优纯补贴率为农业保险赔付率.进一步引入资本资产定价模型对农业保险保费补贴率进行定价,利用农业保险赔付率模拟各地区系统性风险,根据不同险种不同保障水平的保费补贴率风险溢价,测算出各地区不同险种的最优农业保险保费补贴率.为了最大化农业保险的助农功效,还需要通过实行差别化补贴率、降低保险赔付率和经营管理费用率,优化农业保险保费补贴率,最终实现我国财政补贴农业保险从数量增长向质量抬升的转变.     

健康保险令保险公司发怵

随着国民经济的发展和居民收入的提高，我国商业健康保险的市场潜力日益增大，但是国内各大保险公司却在健康保险发展上踌躇不前，究其原因：一是赔付率过高；二是风险控制难度大。     

用ARIMA(100)(101)12-ARCH模型对赔付率的预测

一、预测保险赔付率的意义 从理论上讲赔付率的计算应该用下面的公式计算,即:赔付率=(已付赔款 当年提取的责任准备金-上年赔款准备金)/保费收入     

保险公司视角下的"保险+期货"定价模型及其验证

"保险+期货"产品费率厘定不准确会导致项目的实际赔付率与预期赔付率出现偏差,造成不同主体间利益的不平衡,影响这一创新产品的良性发展.本文在预测农产品价格的基础上,将农产品价格数据特征及保险条款因素与"价格保险"的定价模型进行了耦合,通过Copula对存在关联关系农产品价格和产量分布进行了连接,结合目标价格、目标产量、保险条款改写"收入保险"定价模型的有关算法,优化了"保险+期货"产品的定价过程.验证表明,优化后的定价过程可以提升"保险+期货"产品的定价精度.此外,本文还对"不同于美式期权、欧式期权、亚式期权的'农产品期权'的定价",起始价格、预期平均价格在期权定价中的对接,历史数据特征、保险条款因素与期权定价模型的耦合,不同行权价格、不同期权类型、不同行权条件下的期权换算等问题进行了技术性探讨.     

降低车险赔付率的应对策略

自2003年起,保险监管部门将机动车险归权于保险公司,条款的制定权、费率的厘订权由保险公司自行行使,机动车险开始沿着市场化、规范化、理性化的经营轨道运行.虽然机动车险市场秩序大有好转,但从机动车险业务经营看,机动车险赔付率仍居各险首位,有的公司机动车险赔付率近60%,若再加上未决因素,赔付率将升至90%.个别公司机动车险已决加未决,赔付率高达100%以上.其究原因:     

加快建立我国巨灾保险制度的思考

我国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一。2008年南方雨雪冰冻灾害、5.12汶川地震灾害、2010年舟曲特大山洪泥石流等自然灾害,给人民群众的生命财产造成巨大损失。灾害发生后,保险业勇担社会责任,积极开展理赔,但保险赔付的数额占灾害损失的比例很小,保险赔付率远低于36%的全球平均水平,保险机制发挥的作用十分有限。加强我国巨灾风险管理,完善巨灾保险体系,提升保险在国家巨灾救助体系中的地位已成当务之急。     

中国农业保险及其对农业生产的影响研究

中国农业保险实施至今已有十余年,研究农业保险对农业生产的影响效应对创新农业险种、促进农业保险深入发展具有重要意义。从全国角度出发,利用聚类分析划分中国农业保险发展区域,根据经济发展水平和农业发展水平将31个省市划分为四类区域,并利用面板数据计量模型分析全国和四类区域中农业保险对农业生产的影响效果。结果表明,农业保险对农业生产具有显著的促进作用,同时播种面积、赔付率、人力资本对农业生产也具有正向影响。     

山东省欠发达地区农村养老保险模式研究

农村计划生育的实施和农村居民寿命的延长,在使家庭养老功能削弱的同时,也造成了农村养老问题的严重化.我省西部经济欠发达地区农民收入低、收入不稳定,是制约当前新型农村养老保险难以实施的主导性因素;要解决该地区农村养老保险问题,只有从当前该地区的现实情况出发,建立政策性的机构并设计出适合该地区农民的险种,才能最终解决该地区农村养老保险的问题.     

人口老龄化与区域创业水平——基于启信宝创业大数据的研究

本文首次基于启信宝大数据获得我国各城市创业数据,同时利用人口推演模型获得各城市人口老龄化数据,利用计划生育政策作为工具变量建立起二者之间的因果识别。本文发现,老年人口抚养比每上升1%,城市创业企业数量将下降10%左右,具有显著的经济意义。本文在宏观和微观两个层面进行了丰富的机制检验,发现同时存在家庭内部的“养老压力”机制和家庭外部的“等级效应”机制,这两条机制分别揭示家庭内部人口老龄化和家庭外部人口老龄化对个体创业行为的影响。整体而言,本文工作补充了人口老龄化与创业的相关研究,也为制定创业和人口政策提供参考。     

乡村振兴视角下商业养老保险对土地流转影响研究

基于世代交叠理论和劳动闲暇理论以及CFPS数据,从商业养老保险的投保情况与收入情况两个层面实证分析商业养老保险对土地流转的影响。结果显示：商业养老保险一方面通过提高家庭养老保障水平的方式影响家庭参与土地流转的意愿,另一方面通过增加转移收入的方式影响家庭土地流转规模。参保商业养老保险对于土地流转意愿的影响还存在地区差异。     

社会互动对家庭商业保险参与的影响——来自中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据的实证分析

本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,探讨了社会互动对家庭商业保险购买行为的影响。研究发现:社会互动显著提高了家庭商业保险参与的可能性与参与程度,并且在控制了内生性之后,这种促进作用依然显著;同时本文通过金融知识和商业保险信任度等变量验证了社会互动影响家庭商业保险参与行为的两种作用渠道;异质性分析表明,社会互动对于东部和中部地区、中等学历、高收入水平、低参与率社区中家庭的促进作用更大。本文的研究为我国商业保险市场的发展提供了一个新的社会特征视角,重视社会互动的促进作用,加强保险业诚信建设,以此推动我国商业保险业健康快速发展。     

Modeling Frost Losses: Application to Pricing Frost Insurance

The main objective of this article is to model the losses caused by frost events and use it to price frost insurance. Since the data on frost events are either unavailable or rarely available, we have chosen to obtain a model for frost losses based on temperature by using some fundamental agricultural engineering findings on frost damage. The main challenges in modeling frost loss variables are, first, the nonlinearity of the frost losses with respect to the temperature and, second, the fruit resistance to the first few hours of low temperature. We address both issues when introducing our frost loss variable. Then after finding the loss model, we use it to price frost insurance for a general family of insurance contracts that do not generate any risk of moral hazard. In particular, we will find the premiums of stop-loss policies for losses to citrus fruits using Value at Risk, Conditional Value at Risk, and Wang's premium based on temperature data from San Joaquin Drainage in California.     

The Asymmetric Information Problem in Taiwan's Cancer Insurance Market

This paper investigates the problem of asymmetric information in Taiwan’s cancer insurance market. Through the survey data, we find evidence of adverse selection existing in this market. Furthermore, we collect additional information on the individual, and find that the individual’s family cancer history contains additional valuable information. It can not only more accurately predict the probability of contracting cancer, as well as predict the willingness to purchase extended cancer insurance, but it can also help to mitigate the severity of adverse selection in the insurance market.     

New Risk-Based Capital Standards in the European Union: A Proposal Based on Empirical Data

In response to criticism concerning the current solvency system, the European Commission is developing new rules for insurance companies operating in the member states of the European Union (EU). Under this so-called Solvency II concept, an insurer is allowed to verify its solvency by using an internal risk management model previously approved by the regulatory authority. In this article we develop such an internal risk management approach for property-liability insurers that is based on dynamic financial analysis (DFA). The proposed concept uses a simulation technique and models the central risk factors from the investment and underwriting areas of an insurance company. On the basis of the data provided by a German insurer, the ruin probabilities under different scenarios and varying planning horizons are calculated.     

Optimal Risk Transfer: A Numerical Optimization Approach

Capital efficiency and asset/liability management are part of the Enterprise Risk Management Process of any insurance/reinsurance conglomerate and serve as quantitative methods to fulfill the strategic planning within an insurance organization. A considerable amount of work has been done in this ample research field, but invariably one of the last questions is whether or not, numerically, the method is practically implementable, which is our main interest. The numerical issues are dependent on the traits of the optimization problem, and therefore we plan to focus on the optimal reinsurance design, which has been a very dynamic topic in the last decade. The existing literature is focused on finding closed-form solutions that are usually possible when economic, solvency, and other constraints are not included in the model. Including these constraints, the optimal contract can be found only numerically. The efficiency of these methods is extremely good for some well-behaved convex problems, such as Second-Order Conic Problems. Specific numerical solutions are provided to better explain the advantages of appropriate numerical optimization methods chosen to solve various risk transfer problems. The stability issues are also investigated together with a case study performed for an insurance group that aims capital efficiency across the entire organization.     

Welfare Effects of Banning Genetic Information in the Life Insurance Market: The Case of BRCA1/2 Genes

We investigate whether regulations that ban insurance companies from access to individuals' genetic tests are likely to lead to substantial adverse selection costs for the specific example of the so‐called breast cancer (BRCA1/2) genes. Using a data set including economic, demographic, and relevant family background information to simulate the market for 10‐year term life insurance, we find generally only modest adverse selection costs associated with such a regulatory ban. However, for family background groups that are at high risk for carrying one of these genes, the efficiency cost of adverse selection may be significant should the test become widely adopted.     

Household Response to Government Debt: Evidence from Life Insurance Holdings

We use state‐level panel data on life insurance in force in the United States and find that a $1 increase in government debt, at either the state or federal level is associated with a $0.96 increase in the face value of the average life insurance holdings per capita for a household in the average state. This increase represents an intention to save that would almost completely offset the government debt in specific states of the world (i.e., if the insured dies). Because this state of the world is rare, the immediate increase in actual savings is only about $0.03, the cost of the additional insurance. We find, in addition, that this response occurs mainly on the intensive margin, meaning that the size of the average life insurance policy increases when government debt increases. Along the extensive margin, we find the number of policies in force falls slightly with federal debt, and rises slightly with state debt increases. The results show altruistic planning in response to changes in government debt that are consistent with Ricardian Equivalence and the long‐run neutrality of government debt.