COVID-19 Sentiment and the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from the Official News Media and Sina Weibo

This study quantitatively measures the Chinese stock market’s reaction to sentiments regarding the Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). Using 6.3 million items of textual data extracted from the official news media and Sina Weibo blogsite, we develop two COVID-19 sentiment indices that capture the moods related to COVID-19. Our sentiment indices are real-time and forward-looking indices in the stock market. We discover that stock returns and turnover rates were positively predicted by the COVID-19 sentiments during the period from December 17, 2019 to March 13, 2020. Consistent with this prediction, margin trading and short selling activities intensified proactively with growth sentiment. Overall, these results illustrate how the effects of the pandemic crisis were amplified by the sentiments.     

Does real flexibility help firms navigate the COVID-19 pandemic?

Building on the investment-based asset pricing framework, we show that firms' ability to timely scale down their operations reduces the sensitivity of their equity value to large adverse productivity shocks. Using U.S. data in the times of the COVID-19 pandemic, we provide empirical evidence consistent with our model's predictions. Real flexibility curbs losses in firm value and reduces return volatility, especially for firms with high book-to-market or high COVID-19 exposure, consistent with the idea that the benefits of real flexibility are associated primarily with contraction options during the COVID-19 crisis. Our analysis shows that real flexibility provides incremental and complementary protection beyond financial flexibility. Besides its impact on stock prices, real flexibility also helps firms sustain earnings during 2020, compared with 2019 when the pandemic had not struck. Our work demonstrates that real flexibility is an important tool for corporate managers in navigating episodes of disasters.     

SHORT SELLING AND PRICE DISCOVERY: EVIDENCE FROM AMERICAN DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS

The underlying shares of some American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) can be short sold in their home markets, and others cannot. This institutional feature offers a unique opportunity to investigate the relation between short selling and price discovery. We hypothesize and confirm that ADR short selling on a U.S. exchange is more informative when the ADRs’ underlying shares cannot be short sold in the home market. These and related results suggest that short sellers make a significant contribution to price discovery. Short sellers’ trading activity, representing more than 20% of total ADR share volume, increases the benefits of cross‐listing on U.S. exchanges.     

放松卖空管制能够抑制并购商誉泡沫吗？

本文以我国放松卖空管制作为切入点,系统检验了其对并购商誉泡沫的影响。研究发现,放松卖空管制之后,超额商誉显著下降,同时商誉资产也显著下降,且该效应在民营控股公司中更显著;机制检验发现,卖空通过吸引更多分析师跟踪、增加对管理者的激励来抑制商誉泡沫;进一步研究发现,在市场化水平较高、行业竞争度较低的情形下,卖空机制对商誉泡沫的抑制作用更强。本文的研究结论丰富了卖空和并购商誉领域的文献,并为以市场导向原则化解并购商誉泡沫提供了新思路和新范式。     

Geographical diversification using ETFs: Multinational evidence from COVID-19 pandemic

We examine the relations between dollar flows of U.S. listed ETFs with exposure to the U.S., Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world following an emergency like the COVID-19 crisis. Using a Markov Switching Model (MSVAR), we find evidence that investors use ETFs to gain exposure to foreign markets and swiftly adjust their portfolio's allocation in response to the change in the number of COVID-19 infected people in every location. We further extend our study to ETFs listed in the U.S., Europe, and Asia and investigate the change in foreign and domestic money flow, before and after the pandemic. We show that investors around the world rebalance their portfolios by monitoring the countries’ performance in controlling the pandemic. Our findings show that while investors in the U.S. and Asian countries direct their money to domestic funds and reduce their foreign investment following the pandemic, European investors increase foreign investment and reduce home bias. This is consistent with the flight-to-safety effect when investors shift their asset allocation away from riskier investments (here riskier locations) and into safer ones during the adverse economic shock.     

中国式卖空机制与高管减持——基于融资融券分步扩容的准自然实验

本文以我国的融资融券制度为背景,结合双重差分模型,研究卖空机制对上市公司高管减持行为的影响。研究发现,相对于非融券标的,可融券标的公司高管的月减持比例在允许卖空后下降22%,这种抑制作用在小规模、高盈余平滑度以及非国有公司中体现得更为明显。其次,成为可融券标的后,股价定价效率提高,高管减持收益显著下降。进一步地,本文将高管的减持行为分为定期性与投机性两类,发现卖空机制显著抑制了高管基于信息优势和股价偏差的投机性减持行为。     

Heterogeneously informed trading and the stock market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic

This study investigates the U.S. stock market efficiency from the symmetric and asymmetric perspectives during the COVID-19 pandemic. We explore that the pandemic boosts (hurts) the information role of symmetrically (asymmetrically) informed trading. Specifically, we find that the epidemic outbreak and infection scale strengthen (weaken) the stock return reaction to symmetrically (asymmetrically) informed trading. Evidence also indicates that the effect of symmetrically (asymmetrically) informed trading on stocks' permanent price shocks and price informational efficiency is enhanced (impaired) during the pandemic. Moreover, all these effects are consistently more intensive to informed buys.     

Does CSR matter in times of crisis? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

The debate over how firm stakeholder engagement is tied to preserving shareholder wealth has received growing attention in recent years, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. Against this backdrop, we examine the relation between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and stock market returns during the COVID-19 pandemic-induced market crash and the post-crash recovery. Using a sample of 1750 U.S. firms and two major sources of CSR ratings, we find no evidence that CSR affected stock returns during the crash period. This result is robust to various sensitivity tests. In additional cross-sectional analysis, we find some supporting evidence, albeit weak, that the relation between CSR and stock returns during the pandemic-related crisis is more positive when CSR is congruent with a firm's institutional environment. We also find that Business Roundtable companies, which committed to protecting stakeholder interests prior to the pandemic, do not outperform during the pandemic crisis. We conclude that pre-crisis CSR is not effective at shielding shareholder wealth from the adverse effects of a crisis, suggesting a potential disconnect between firms' CSR orientation (ratings) and actual actions. Our evidence suggests that investors can distinguish between genuine CSR and firms engaging in cheap talk.     

Short selling and trading abuses on Nasdaq

We examine the potential for short-selling trading abuses unique to Nasdaq during a period when there was no up-tick rule and no effective prohibitions against “naked” short selling. We find that (a) short sellers earned significant abnormal returns on Nasdaq securities, but these were smaller than on NYSE/AMEX securities; (b) they did not destabilize markets by selling into falling markets and exacerbating price drops; and (c) Nasdaq short sellers may be more susceptible than NYSE/AMEX shorts to “short squeezes”. Our results cast doubt on the appropriateness of recent regulatory reforms established for Nasdaq and public concern over Nasdaq short-selling abuses.     

Informed short sales and option introductions

This study examines how the introduction of options affects the level of informed short selling. In particular, we test whether option introductions increases or decreases the level of informed short selling. Our tests are motivated by a theoretical debate in the literature. The first stream of literature argues that introducing options into markets may increase speculative trading which can result in less informed trading when informed traders perceive speculative trades as noise. The second stream argues that introducing options into markets improves the informational environment of the market because option prices provide an additional information mechanism for informed traders. We approximate informed short selling by examining (i) non-exempt short sales, (ii) contrarian short-selling activity, and (iii) the return predictability contained in shorting activity. Results show that non-exempt shorting activity increases after options become available. Further, we show that both the level of contrarian short selling and the return predictability contained in short selling increase after options are listed. Our results suggest that informed short selling increases after options are introduced.     

Effects of investor sentiment and country governance on unexpected conditional volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from global stock markets

This paper first investigates the relationship between investor sentiment, captured by internet search behaviour, and the unexpected component of stock market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to data on 12 major stock markets, our research indicates a positive correlation between the Google search volume index on COVID-19 and the unexpected volatility of stock markets. The result suggests that greater COVID-19-related investor sentiment during this pandemic is associated with higher stock market uncertainty.Our study further examines whether country-level governance plays a role in protecting stock markets during this pandemic and reveals that the unexpected conditional volatility is lower when a country's governance is more effective. The impact of investor sentiment and country governance on unexpected volatility after the initial shock of COVID-19 is also investigated. The findings demonstrate the importance of establishing good country-level governance that can effectively reduce stock market uncertainty in the context of this pandemic, and support continual policy development related to investor protection.     

做空机制对我国股市波动性影响的实证分析

我国融资融券业务于2010年3月31日正式启动,而作为一种资本市场机制,做空机 制一直以来都饱受理论界和实务界的争议,做空机制对市场波动的影响尚未达成一致结论。本 文考察了做空机制与市场波动性之间的关系。研究发现：（1）在样本期间内,市场波动与做空 机制之间存在长期的稳定关系;（2）买空交易会在一定程度上增加市场波动,而卖空交易会 在一定程度上降低市场波动,但是二者的影响均有限;（3）综合来看,做空机制并不会引起证 券市场的异常波动,即使市场出现了大幅度的震荡,也不是由于卖空机制本身造成的;（4）本 文认为进一步完善做空机制尤其是卖空交易机制有助于稳定市场。本文结论对于评估做空机 制对市场波动的影响,防范经济冲击风险以及加强市场监管具有重要启示。     

The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the stock market crash risk in China. For this purpose, we first estimated the conditional skewness of the return distribution from a GARCH with skewness (GARCH-S) model as the proxy for the equity market crash risk of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We then constructed a fear index for COVID-19 using data from the Baidu Index. Based on the findings, conditional skewness reacts negatively to daily growth in total confirmed cases, indicating that the pandemic increases stock market crash risk. Moreover, the fear sentiment exacerbates such risk, especially with regard to the impact of COVID-19. In other words, when the fear sentiment is high, the stock market crash risk is more strongly affected by the pandemic. Our evidence is robust for the number of daily deaths and global cases.     

Informed or speculative: Short selling analyst recommendations

Christophe et al. (2010) find evidence of abnormal short activity prior to analyst downgrades and argue that short sellers may be violating SEC insider-trading laws by trading on information obtained from analysts about upcoming downgrades. However, observing abnormal shorting prior to downgrades is not tantamount to determining that short sellers are trading on tips from analysts unless shorting is abnormally low prior to upgrades. This paper revisits this issue. While we observe abnormal shorting prior to downgrades, we also find markedly higher shorting prior to upgrades. In fact, the short-selling patterns surrounding both downgrades and upgrades are remarkably symmetric indicating that short sellers during the pre-recommendation period are not unusually informed about the direction of upcoming recommendation changes. If anything, our findings indicate that short selling prior to analyst recommendations is more likely speculative than informed.     

Resilience and wellbeing in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of financial literacy

Using the 2021 wave of the TIAA Institute-GFLEC Personal Finance Index (P-Fin Index), this paper provides an in-depth examination of the financial literacy of U.S. adults in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Knowledge is troublingly low, with U.S. adults averaging a score of 50 percent on the twenty-eight questions that compose the P-Fin Index. Even more disturbingly, only 28 percent of U.S. adults correctly answered a question testing their ability to comprehend and compare probabilities. Financial literacy matters. Lower financial literacy is associated with increased time spent worrying about personal finances. After controlling for income, education, and key demographic information, the more financially literate are found to be more likely to be financially resilient, to plan for retirement, and to feel unconstrained by debt. These findings highlight the importance of financial knowledge, in particular in a time of crisis, and raise concerns about the public’s ability to comprehend complex messages about risk during the pandemic.     

卖空机制与食品安全——基于溢出效应的视角

卖空机制通过威慑效应约束厂商的自利动机,为食品安全治理提供了一种可行的资本市场途径。本文利用2015—2018年原国家食品药品监督管理总局披露的食品抽检数据,考察卖空强度对地区食品质量的影响。采用食品类上市公司融券余额在流通市值中占比的加权平均值度量地区卖空强度,体现了食品企业受到的卖空威慑压力。结果发现,卖空强度越大,当地整体的食品抽检质量越好。机制分析发现,卖空威胁在提升上市食品企业产品质量的同时,通过供应链协同、同群效应以及减少信息不对称的途径传导至同地区的其他企业,产生了食品质量治理的溢出效应。异质性分析显示,卖空对食品安全治理的溢出效应在要素市场发育不足、法制相对不健全和欠发达地区更加明显,卖空作为外部监管的补充机制发挥了食品安全治理的功能。因此,完善融资融券制度,适时合理地将食品类上市公司纳入融券标的,为惩治劣质食品提供资本市场手段,对确保食品安全问题“零容忍”具有现实意义。     

Crude oil market and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the US,Japan, and Germany

We analyzed the return and volatility spillover between the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the crude oil market, and the stock market by employing two empirical methods for connectedness: the time-domain approach developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and the method based on frequency dynamics developed by Barunik and Krehlik (2018). We find that the return spillover mainly occurs in the short term; however, the volatility spillover mainly occurs in the long term. From the moving window analysis results, the impact of COVID-19 created an unprecedented level of risk, such as plummeting oil prices and triggering the US stock market circuit breaker four times, which caused investors to suffer heavy losses in a short period. Furthermore, the impact of COVID-19 on the volatility of the oil and stock markets exceeds that caused by the 2008 global financial crisis, and continues to have an effect. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets is uncertain in both the short and long terms. Our research provides some urgent and prominent insights to help investors and policymakers avoid the risks in the crude oil and stock markets because of the COVID-19 pandemic and reestablish economic development policy strategies.     

From COVID-19 herd immunity to investor herding in international stock markets: The role of government and regulatory restrictions

We study if government response to the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic can mitigate investor herding behaviour in international stock markets. Our empirical analysis is informed by daily stock market data from 72 countries from both developed and emerging economies in the first quarter of 2020. The government response to the COVID-19 outbreak is measured by means of the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, where higher scores are associated with greater stringency. Three main findings are in order. First, results show evidence of investor herding in international stock markets. Second, we document that the Oxford Government Response Stringency Index mitigates investor herding behaviour, by way of reducing multidimensional uncertainty. Third, short-selling restrictions, temporarily imposed by the national and supranational regulatory authorities of the European Union, appear to exert a mitigating effect on herding. Finally, our results are robust to a range of model specifications.     

Diversifying equity with cryptocurrencies during COVID-19

Literature suggests assets become more correlated during economic downturns. The COVID-19 crisis provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate this considerably further. Further, whether cryptocurrencies provide a diversification for equities is still an unsettled issue. We employ several econometric procedures, including wavelet coherence, and neural network analyses to rigorously examine the role of COVID-19 on the paired co-movements of four cryptocurrencies, with seven equity indices (matching countries particularly impacted by COVID-19). Our period of study includes one year prior to the onset of COVID-19, and one year during the pandemic, extending deeper into the pandemic period (February 2021) than most previous studies. We find co-movements between cryptocurrencies and equity indices gradually increased as COVID-19 progressed. However, most of these co-movements are either modestly positively correlated, or minimal, suggesting cryptocurrencies in general do not provide a diversification benefit during either normal times or downturns. An exception, however, is the co-movement of tether. Tether co-moves negatively with equities to an economically significant degree, both pre COVID-19, and considerably more during COVID-19. Co-movements between tether and equity indices spiked sharply during identified waves of the pandemic. Tether appears to be an important safe haven during times of market turmoil, consistent with investors seeking USD liquidity during periods of volatility.     

Impact of COVID-19 on stock market efficiency: Evidence from developed countries

This study investigates the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on stock market efficiency for six hard-hit developed countries, namely, the United States (US), Spain, the United Kingdom (UK), Italy, France, and Germany. Applying the wild bootstrap automatic variance ratio test on daily stock market data from July 29, 2019 to January 25, 2021, it is found that all stock markets used in this study deviate from market efficiency during some periods of the pandemic. Deviations from market efficiency are seen more in the stock markets of the US and UK during the COVID-19 outbreak than in other stock markets. These results are strengthened when a different econometric method, the automatic portmanteau test, is used. The findings of this study indicate an increasing chance for stock price predictions and abnormal returns during the COVID-19 pandemic.