The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network

Global trade suffered a significant contraction in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and its growth is expected to remain below the pre-pandemic trend. Did the relative importance of countries in the world trade network change as a result of the pandemic? The answer to this question is particularly important for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries because of their relative importance in world trade as well as their strong trade linkages with China, where the COVID-19 virus originated. This paper examines how the world trade network has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on ASEAN countries. Tracking the changes in centrality from January 2000 to March 2021, we find no evidence for most ASEAN and major trading countries that centrality changed significantly after the pandemic began. Our results suggest the resilience of the trade pattern for these countries.     

Sleeplessness in COVID-19 pandemic: Lockdown and anxiety

This paper investigates the sleeplessness in Chinese cities during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We provide first evidence of a link from daily COVID-19 cases resulting in sleep loss in a panel of Chinese cities. We use Wuhan, which was the first city to be completely locked down, as basis to present the result that sleeplessness has become a considerably serious issue owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. In using the intervention policy of various cities as exogenous shocks, we find that lockdown policies significantly increase the sleeplessness level of Chinese cities. In addition, the severity of COVID-19 pandemic significantly exacerbates the negative effect of lockdown policies on sleep quality in the city. Overall, this study indicates that policy makers should pay more attention to public mental health when citizens recover from COIVD-19 by investigating the unintended consequences of COVID-19 on sleeplessness level of cities.     

The macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic: A SIR-DSGE model approach

This paper proposes a susceptible-infected-removed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SIR-DSGE) model to assess the macroeconomic impact of the recent COVID-19 outbreak. The parameters of the SIR setting are calibrated to COVID-19 data from China. Using the model, we illustrate how the pandemic could result in consumption and output loss. We show that a combination of quarantine policy and random testing of the uninfected is effective in reducing the number of infected individuals and outperforms the alternative scenarios in which only one of the policies is implemented. Moreover, the economic impacts of both policies are evaluated. Compared with the decentralized equilibrium, we find that the Ramsey social planner allows output to decrease more substantially during the pandemic, in exchange for a faster economic recovery.     

Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on single-person households in South Korea

Using nationally representative income and expenditure data from South Korea, we show that single-person households suffered a much greater decrease in household income and expenditure compared to multi-persons households during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Negative effects on income were largest for the single-person households in ages 50—64, mostly driven by decreases in earned income rather than business income. There was no corresponding decrease in consumption expenditures, however, other than on transportation expenditure for young men. Notably, there were significant decreases in non-consumption expenditures that are related to formal and informal consumption-smoothing mechanisms, such as spending on insurances, pensions, and household transfers. Our findings highlight the disproportionately negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the middle-aged single-person households. With reduced spending on consumption-smoothing mechanisms, this group is likely to be even more vulnerable to negative income shocks in the future.     

COVID-19 and the employment gender gap in Japan

This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic affected female employment in Japan. Our estimates indicate that the employment rate of married women with children decreased by 3.5 percentage points, while that of those without children decreased by only 0.3 percentage points, implying that increased childcare responsibilities caused a sharp decline in mothers’ employment. Further, mothers who left or lost their jobs appear to have dropped out of the labor force even several months after school reopening. In contrast to women, the employment rate of married men with children was not affected, which hindered progress in narrowing the employment gender gap.     

The social scar of the pandemic: Impacts of COVID-19 exposure on interpersonal trust

This paper employs a difference-in-differences strategy to examine the causal effect of exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic on interpersonal trust amidst zero-COVID policies in China. Using a nationally representative panel survey, we find that COVID-19 exposure leads to a decrease in the levels of generalized trust. We also show that the change in interpersonal trust varies across domains. Specifically, COVID-19 exposure significantly decreases trust in parents, neighbors, and local government officials, but has small and insignificant effects on trust in doctors, strangers, and Americans. Empirical tests suggest that changes in income and physical health status are not likely to be potential channels. We provide some evidence for the mechanism of deteriorated mental health status and pessimistic expectations.     

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on micro,small, and medium enterprises in Asia and their digitalization responses

Soon after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments began extending financial and other forms of support to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and their workers because smaller firms are more vulnerable to negative shocks to their supply chain, labor supply, and final demand for goods and services than larger firms. Since MSMEs are diverse, however, the severity of the pandemic’s impact on them varies considerably depending on their characteristics. Using online survey data of MSMEs from eight developing economies in South, Southeast, and Northeast Asia, this paper attempts to deepen our understanding of the impact of the pandemic on MSMEs, especially their employment, sales revenue, and cash flow. It also characterizes those firms that began participating in online commerce and tries to determine how their use of online commerce and their employment are related in this difficult time. This paper also examines the government support that MSMEs have received and the extent to which it has satisfied their support needs.     

COVID-19 and trade: Simulated asymmetric loss

This paper uses 2018 data as a benchmark to build a numerical 26-country global general equilibrium model with trade cost and an endogenous trade imbalance structure. We assume that COVID-19 will increase the trade cost between countries and decrease labor supply in production. We use China’s trade data from January to April in 2020 to calibrate the influence level parameters and then simulate the trade effects of COVID-19 in China, the EU, the US, and the world. Our simulation results find that all countries’ trade and exports will be significantly hurt by the pandemic. Due to the trade diversion effect and the price growth effect, some countries will see an increase in import trade. Comparatively, the pandemic has the most negative impact on global trade, followed by the EU, the US, and China. As the pandemic deepens, the negative impact on trade will increase. The worldwide pandemic has the most significant impact on US trade, with an effect about 1.5 times that of the average world effect.     

COVID-19疫情影响的旅游目的地形象修复策略研究

COVID-19疫情的爆发和蔓延对中国旅游业发展产生了负面影响,如何对旅游目的地形象进行修复已成为现阶段国内旅游复兴发展的重要议题。文章结合"source, message and audience"旅游目的地形象修复策略,揭示COVID-19疫情期国内旅游营销为旅游正面形象的维护所做的努力,为疫后旅游目的地形象修复策略的选择和制定提供参考。     

COVID-19, commuting flows,and air quality

Fossil-fuel burning transportation methods significantly contribute to air pollution. During the COVID-19 pandemic, South Korea experienced a 10-20% decline in commuting flows, even without government-mandated stay-at-home orders. This paper quantifies the impact that decreased commuting flows have on PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, CO, and SO₂, using municipality level commuting data. We find that a 1% decrease in commuting flows decreases air pollutants by 0.08-0.17%, after controlling for seasonality and time-varying local production. The effect was higher in regions with high initial pollution, and people recognized air quality improvements. These results emphasize the importance of encouraging cleaner transportation methods after the pandemic.     

COVID-19 and the intentions to migrate from developing countries: Evidence from online search activities in Southeast Asia

COVID-19 has had an enormous effect on labor markets globally. Economic restrictions, notably strict border controls and lockdowns, have led many workers to lose their jobs and forced many migrants to return to their homes or change their migration plans. While adverse effects on labor mobility are expected, variations in the prevalence of COVID-19 and governmental responses to the pandemic across countries are likely to influence workers’ intentions to migrate in different ways. To understand the effects of pandemics on the international labor supply, we explore the impact of COVID-19 and the various economic restriction policies on job search behavior by considering cases from Southeast Asian countries using the difference-in-differences (DID) approach with data from Google Trends Index (GTI). We find that the search volume of queries related to the labor market dramatically increased over time following the outbreak of COVID-19. However, we do not observe any positive impact on the search volume related to emigration, regardless of the infection control measures in the host countries. Our results imply that the job insecurity increases after the imposition of lockdown in the respective countries. On the other hand, the expectation to migrate outside of the country, which requires preparation time and incurs high costs, does not seem to have increased in developing countries.     

Elections and COVID-19 benefit payments

This study examines the political factors associated with the implementation of a benefit payment policy in Japan during the COVID-19 crisis. The Japanese government announced a universal cash payment program in April 2020, but the payment date differed across localities. This study estimates the correlation between this timing and local politicians’ characteristics, finding that local governments with mayors elected unopposed tended to start making payments comparatively early. As such, mayors elected uncontested may be able to mobilize resources within government offices to execute programs such as the Special Fixed Benefit program in Japan, which attracted public attention.     

Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis

We examine the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in India using the NK-DSGE framework. In terms of policy effectiveness, our findings imply that expansionary monetary policy is effective in reviving economic growth both from the demand side and supply side. In contrast, expansionary fiscal policy is effective only from the supply side. Our findings recommend the implementation of optimal policy mix in a coordinated and staggered framework for effective mitigation of ill-effects of the COVID-19, such as reviving employment and capacity utilization to its pre-pandemic level with minimal inflationary effects.     

新冠肺炎疫情与全球治理变革

新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来迅速演变为一场全球公共卫生危机,不仅对人类生命安全和身体健康产生了巨大威胁,也使经济全球化受到重创,在全球多领域产生了全方位链式影响,凸显了全球治理的紧迫性和重要性。然而,现有全球治理体系在应对此次疫情过程中反应迟缓、部分失灵、治理成效有限。国际组织、国际机构、国际机制等应对不足、效果不彰。大国领导、大国协调与合作难度加大,未能体现领导作用。各国需要反思如何来加强全球治理体系改革,以更好地确保人类公共卫生安全。各国还需维护和稳定当前的世界秩序,在公共卫生领域形成一个人类卫生健康共同体。要树立人类命运共同体理念,强化对国际治理制度的更新、补充和替代,加大大国协调与合作力度,加强对世界卫生组织的赋权和赋能,提升其权威性和行动力,强化二十国集团等机制和制度建设,增补新的制度安排,在全球层面结成理念共同体、制度共同体、政策共同体、行动共同体和责任共同体。只有这样,各国才能共同应对未来人类所面临的公共卫生挑战,确保人类的生命安全和共同发展繁荣。     

新冠疫情对湖南酒店业影响的多维异质性研究

以湖南酒店业为研究对象,运用问卷调查、事前-事后比较法、配对样本T检验等方法,实证考察了新冠疫情对湖南酒店业的影响。研究发现：坐落在郊区的酒店受新冠疫情的影响要小于城区酒店,单体酒店的影响要小于连锁酒店,商务会议型酒店的影响要小于度假型酒店,大型酒店的影响要小于中小型酒店;新冠疫情对湖南酒店的影响未呈现酒店星级和所有权形式的异质性。上述发现对后疫情时期制定精准救助与扶持政策具有重要启示意义。     

Labour Market Dynamics in South Africa at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper conducts an analysis of labour market dynamics in South Africa during the initial period of lockdown, from the end of March to the end of April 2020, using the first wave of the NIDS-CRAM (2020) survey. Within our sample of over 6,000 adults aged 18 to 59, we found that there was a very large decrease in employment. The fraction of the sample that was conventionally classified as employed decreased from 57% in February to 48% in April. If we further exclude temporarily absent workers, which we term “furloughed” employees, this fraction decreases further to 38%. Thus, about one out of every three employed people in our sample either lost their job or did not work and received no wages during April. This has extremely large implications for poverty and welfare. We further analyse the labour market by comparing across demographic groups as defined by race, by gender, by age groups, by geographic areas and by education levels. The over-arching finding from this analysis is that the job losses were not uniformly distributed amongst the different groups. In particular, groups who have always been more vulnerable – such as women, African/Blacks, youth and less educated groups – have been disproportionately negatively affected.     

COVID-19-associated income loss and job loss: Evidence from Indonesia

COVID-19 pandemic has substantially altered socioeconomic conditions around the world. While numerous existing studies analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic among developed states, little is known about its effects on people’s lives and social discrepancies in emerging economies. To this end, we empirically analyze the 2020 Indonesian Labor Force Survey data, hypothesizing that COVID-19 has given idiosyncratic risks and impacts on people by gender, age, education, occupation and regions. We find that income loss and job loss are prominent among males, younger and less educated people as well as among self-employed and part-time non-agricultural workers. These tendencies are not pronounced for people enjoying high income and mobility, but tend to be evident for urban residents and those having dependents. Notably, self-employed people have the highest risk of losing income, while part-time urban workers face the highest probability of losing their jobs. The propensity score matching method also demonstrates that these losses are most evident for the regions susceptible to COVID-19. Overall, we suggest that socioeconomically disadvantaged groups require additional support to strengthen their resilience in the face of exogenous shocks, such as the one caused by the global coronavirus pandemic.     

新冠疫情蔓延突显数字经济独特优势

本文认为,以数字经济为核心的虚拟经济形式在当下中国经济发展过程中具有主导性作用,其根本特征就是人与人之间可以超越时空发生非接触性的经济关系。据此评估当下“人传人”的新冠疫情所带来的经济损失,发现人与人接触性较强的实体经济与实体国际贸易遭受的损失较大,而人与人接触性较弱的数字经济却获得一定发展,并在防控新冠疫情蔓延、保障社会供给等方面发挥了重要作用。进而提出,应对新冠疫情长期发展战略和短期应对措施都将是着力发展数字经济,尤其是发展人工智能产品。     

新冠肺炎疫情背景下旅游业研究热点与趋势分析

新冠肺炎疫情对旅游业产生极大冲击的同时也带来了发展机遇。以中国知网（CNKI）中文学术期刊中疫情下旅游业相关文献为数据库,运用CiteSpace可视化工具分析疫情下旅游业的研究热点和发展趋势。研究结果表明,研究领域内作者间合作关系不紧密;研究热点可归纳为新冠肺炎对旅游业和潜在游客消费行为意向的影响、旅游业各参与主体应对新冠肺炎冲击的策略性研究;文旅产业在疫情影响下产生的新机遇、新方向及新问题成为研究发展趋势。最后从旅游业对新冠疫情的响应机制、高质量人才的培养、文旅产业变革３个方面提出研究展望,为未来旅游业可持续发展研究提供借鉴。     

Economic and Distributional Impact of COVID-19: Evidence from Macro-Micro Modelling of the South African Economy

A computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model is applied to assess the potential short-term effects on the South African economy of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With a particular focus on distributional outcomes, two simulations are run, a mild and a severe scenario. The findings show significant evidence of decline in economic growth and employment, with the decline harsher for the severe scenario. The microeconomic results show that the pandemic moves the income distribution curve such that more households fall under the poverty line while at the same time, inequality declines. The latter result is driven by the disproportionate decline in incomes of richer households while the poorest of the poor are cushioned by government social grants that are kept intact during the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic is still unfolding and its economic modelling as well as the data used to operationalise the model will need to be updated and improved upon as more information about the disease and the economy becomes available.