Robotics technology and firm-level employment adjustment in Japan

Unlike studies that analyze the impact of robotics technology on overall employment at the industry or firm level, this study investigated cross-division employment adjustment within a firm in an industry with greater diffusion and penetration of robotics technology. By examining changes in the composition of employment, we measured job creation and destruction at the division level and explored whether robotics technology, as a leading example of automation, not only displaces workers but also introduces new jobs in favor of labor. We made use of unique, division-level employment data for Japan’s manufacturing firms, together with industry-level data on the installation of industrial robots. We found that industry-level adoption of robots positively affects the firm-level job creation rate and the job destruction rate. Because the magnitude of the impact is larger for job destruction, robot adoption has an overall negative impact on firms’ net employment growth. Our findings suggest that the labor displacement effect of robotics technology and the emergence of new jobs due to technological change coexist even at the firm level.     

How does the first job matter for an individual’s career life in Japan?

Exploiting annual information on the work status of female workers from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers (JPSC), this paper examines how an individual’s job status immediately after graduation, referred to as “first job,” matters for his/her future job career. Using the ratio of regular employees in the labor force in the year preceding an individual’s graduation as an instrument for the first-job status (i.e., regular job or not), we confirm that even for women, whose retention rates are lower than those of men because of marriage and childbirth, individuals’ first-job status has a significant effect on their job status in the future. We further find that the effect gradually declines over the years and effectively disappears around 10 years after graduation. Finally, we find that the first-job effect is reversible: no negative effect of failing to obtain a regular job at graduation is observed if an individual can secure regular employment within a reasonable time period after graduation.     

Bubble into reallocation: How bubbles improve capital allocation in China

This paper develops a theoretical framework to shed lights on the relations between the segmented financial market and the housing bubble in China. In our framework, capital misallocation across firms plays a central role. The segmented financial market causes discrimination against private enterprises and favoritism to state-owned firms. This biased financial system not only gives rise to capital misallocation across firms but also significantly pushes down the equilibrium interest rate in the formal financial market. The overly low interest rate in the formal financial market causes a rational bubble in a dynamically efficient economy. More importantly, the bubble improves capital allocation across firms by crowding out inefficient investment in the state-owned sector. Despite the role of improving capital allocation, bubbles may still reduce welfare by crowding out aggregate capital.     

中日钢铁产业国际竞争力比较分析

钢铁工业一直是关系国计民生的重要产业,受金融危机影响,我国钢铁产业面临严峻的挑战,如何战胜挑战重塑自身的国际竞争力已成为国际上关注的一个热点问题。本文以中日钢铁产业的国际竞争力为分析视角,通过选取市场占有率(MS)、贸易竞争优势指数(TC)和显示性比较优势指数(RCA)这三种常用指标进行比较分析并提出了对策建议。     

我国制度变迁中的劳动力市场分析

尽管我国的就业体制已经基本由过去的计划配置转向市场经济的市场配置,然而,传统经济体制下制度的路径依赖效应仍然对劳动力市场的一体化进程产生阻碍,极大地制约着我国劳动力资源比较优势的发挥,影响资源配置效率.     

Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China

We study the changing landscape of credit market guarantees by examining the risk-pricing of the Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) bonds, which have experienced rising defaults across provinces from a zero record. Using primary market bond issuance data, we identify a province premium that captures the perceived local government support for local SOEs. We find that on average the perceived local government support is on the decline, while the subnational debt market has become more segmented since 2018. This evidence is found to be closely related to the divergence in local government’s fiscal space and the occurrence of SOE default incidents in the area, highlighting the adverse linkage between public debt and corporate financing costs.     

Grandparental childcare and female labor market behaviors: Evidence from China

Using matched employer-employee survey data from China, this paper examines the relationship between grandparental childcare and female labor market behaviors based on within-firm estimations. Our analysis reveals that grandparental childcare can significantly and effectively improve the labor supply of women with children at the extensive margin although not at the intensive margin. Moreover, grandparental childcare is found to enhance the monthly earnings of working mothers without requiring more intensive work. Grandparental childcare can also assist working mothers in advancing to managerial positions. These results suggest that the discrimination by firms against women with children is reduced and their productivity is improved when grandparental childcare is available. Therefore, grandparental childcare plays a crucial role in promoting gender equality and various measures should be implemented to eliminate factors that hinder the effective utilization of grandparental childcare.     

Solution to the Dilemma of the Migrant Labor Shortage and the Rural Labor Surplus in China

Since 2003, China＇s labor market has been facing two coexisting crises： a rural labor surplus and a severe shortage of migrant labor Using data from the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey questionnaire, which covers 288 villages in 36 counties, this paper attempts to find a solution to this dilemma. Specifically, a multinomial logit model, a Mincer- type model and a probit model are applied to examine the effect of educational level on the employment choices for rural laborers, and on the wages and the employment status of migrants. Based on the results of our analysis, we propose the implementation of policy aimed at increasing the educational level of rural dwellers, in conjunction with other policies to eliminate all artificial barriers, to facilitate the migration of rural laborers.     

Migration,Education and Rural Development: Evidence from China 2000 Population Census Data

There has been a concern that the growth of towns has been stalled recently and with it, the creation of non-farm jobs in rural industries. This study uses 2000 census tabulations to look at this issue by examining in-migration in towns in three provinces in China, Zhejiang, Henan, and Sichuan. In addition to the diversified patterns of town in-migrants revealed in these provinces, this paper finds that town in-migrants generally possess higher levels of educational attainment than those of the local population in towns, especially in the less-developed western and central provinces of Sichuan and Henan. There is also evidence that as towns themselves grow wealthier, such as in Zhejiang, better educated people in rural areas were likely to shift their jobs from the farm to non-farm sector in towns nearby, instead of leaving the countryside to migrate to other provinces. Labor markets in towns in less-developed western and central provinces were more flexible in accommodating in-migrants, whereas in the coastal province of Zhejiang, labor markets tend to become segregated between migrants and the local population.     

全球生产性服务业崛起及中国的对策

环境和资源的外在约束、制造业和传统服务业升级的内在需求,使现代服务业成为优化经济结构、转变经济增长方式的必然选择。由于产业融合与全球直接投资的推动,使得生产性服务业在现代服务业中的地位日益凸显,并在全球迅速崛起。加快发展生产性服务业是中国目前的当务之急。基于此,本文在对全球生产性服务业迅速崛起分析的基础上,对中国发展生产性服务业的空间和重点进行了研究。     

我国金融创新存在的问题及对策

我国的金融创新已取得一定的成绩 ,但也存在一些不足和问题 ,认识并解决这些问题是关系到金融的深化改革和经济发展的重要课题     

Job Creation and Destruction in South Africa

Analysts of the South African labour market have mainly used household surveys to analyse the labour market. It has been more difficult to explore the labour demand of firms, as a result of limited data availability. We use the Quarterly Employment Statistics survey, an enterprise survey conducted by Statistics South Africa, to explore how South African firms create and destroy jobs, thereby shedding light on many of the policy questions that are relevant in a high unemployment society like South Africa. We find that job creation and destruction rates are similar to those found in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries. There is little evidence that labour legislation creates rigidities that prevent firms from hiring or firing workers. We also find that larger firms are better net creators of jobs than small firms and that net job creation rates are negative in manufacturing. Our research has important policy implications – particularly for the South African National Planning Commission's 2030 plan, in which new jobs are envisaged to come mainly from small‐ and medium‐sized firms. Our research suggests that this scenario is not likely without changes to policy or legislation.     

中国生产性服务业和制造业的产业关联分析

本文以1997、2002和2007年中国投入产出表数据为基础,运用投入产出分析法,对我国生产性服务业和制造业进行产业关联分析。研究结果表明：第三产业已成为生产性服务业的主要服务对象;制造业对生产性服务业的中间需求结构以及生产性服务业对制造业的中间投入结构均呈现不断升级趋势;制造业对生产性服务业的拉动作用大于生产性服务业对制造业的促进作用。我国生产性服务业与制造业呈现出显著的互动关系,但关联效应仍处于较低水平。这一研究对于我国相关产业政策的制定具有重要的理论和现实意义。

Abstract：

In this paper,the relevancy of producer services and manufacturing is analyzed based on the input-output table of China collected from 1997 to 2007.The following conclu-sions are drawn.Firstly,the tertiary industries have become the main consumer for producer services.Secondly,there is an uptrend of the intermediate demand structure of manufactur-ing to producer services as well as the intermediate input structure of producer services to manufacturing.Thirdly,the influence that manufacturing pull the producer services is more efficient than the function that producer services promote the manufacturing.Finally,the interaction between producer services and manufacturing is significant in China,but the relevancy level of the two industries is still low.The study has important theoretical and practical significance for the formulations of the related industrial policy.     

劳动力市场分割理论及其中国现实问题综述

从劳动力市场发展历史来看,劳动力市场的分割一般分为两种情形:一种是横向的劳动力市场分割,另一种是纵向的劳动力市场分割。文章针对中外学者对此的不同看法及其现实问题展开讨论,试图对劳动力市场分割理论及其在中国的问题进行小结和思考。     

Bureaucratic integration and regional specialization in China

Fiscal decentralization introduced as part of China's economic reform since 1979 has unleashed strong incentives for China's local governments to pursue economic development, but the same incentives have also led to local protectionist policies inhibiting the process of regional specialization. This paper focuses on the constraints or freedom with which local governments can implement their protectionist policies. Using a panel data of 29 China's regions over the time period of 1985–1997, we find that China's political system of bureaucratic integration (specifically, concurrent appointment of local government officials in the central government) imposes constraints on the local governments from practicing protectionism. We also find that the effectiveness of local protectionist policies is limited by market competition, specifically, competition from foreign-invested firms operating in China and foreign imports. Our results on the role of local protectionism remain robust to controls for the regional variations in the size of the economy and the stage of economic development.     

日本产业政策与竞争政策的关系及其对中国的启示

文章通过战后日本产业政策与竞争政策关系的演变,来评价日本政府与市场和企业的关系。日本政府根据不同经济发展时期的实际需要及时调整产业政策与竞争政策关系的经验,对目前处于经济转型期的中国具有积极的借鉴意义。     

Labor Market Reform, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China

The year 1996 was a turning point both in terms of Chinese labor market reform aria m China＇s economic growth pattern. Before 1996, labor market reform was mainly implemented through adjustment of people＇s occupation and income structure. Since 1996, employment restructuring has led to differentiation in terms of employment status. Labor market reform in the former stage resulted in slow growth in wages, whereas reform in the latter stage enhanced economic efficiency. Both stages have enabled the Chinese economy to apply its comparative advantage of low labor cost. Labor market reform has also increased income disparity and, therefore, new challenges are posed in sustaining economic growth. China needs to adjust its development strategies and introduce labor market reform that can improve income equality, so as to achieve sustainable economic development.     

Minimum Wage Regulation in China and Its Applications to Migrant Workers in the Urban Labor Market

Using data at micro and city levels, the present paper explores the policy evolution of the minimum wage system in China, and examines its coverage for migrant workers. The analysis indicates that minimum wage policy has been substantially improved in terms of both coverage and the level of the minimum wage standard, but that the current policy tool that relies on the monthly wage rate is not effective. Because migrant workers tend to work more hours, use of an hourly wage rate is more appropriate than a monthly wage rate.