The rhetorical fantasy of energy transitions: implications for energy policy and analysis

This article explores the rhetoric of four energy transitions. It begins by summarising research on the intersection of fantasy, technology and the sociology of expectation. It then looks at how ideas of progress, modernity, cheapness, abundance and hope influence the way society perceives new energy technologies, causing them to overestimate benefits and underestimate challenges. Our rhetorical analysis finds in case studies of steam engines, gasoline automobiles, hydroelectric dams and nuclear reactors that newly ‘discovered’ sources of energy or newly invented technologies are always assumed to provide infinitely abundant energy and to have the potential to create positive utopian changes in society. We conclude by noting the salient implications of these rhetorical themes for energy planners, analysts and scholars.     

新能源产业的发展思路和政策建议

近年来新能源技术进步加快,成本大幅下降,很可能成为金融危机后最为重要的新兴产业。我国新能源产业呈现出快速发展的势头,地方和企业的积极性很高,但同时也出现了一哄而上、无序发展和新能源发电上网难等问题,亟须明确发展思路,理顺体制机制,突破技术瓶颈,争取在全球向低碳经济转型中占领产业制高点。     

Bioenergy innovation and energy policy

Using panel data on 13 OECD countries between 1979 and 2008 this paper examines the affect climate and energy policies have had on the rate of biotechnology innovations. The explanatory variables include a vector of important determinants of patenting activity for biotechnologies (e.g. specific and general research and development expenditures, energy consumption, energy prices and total number of registered patents). Fixed effects are employed to capture unobservable country-specific heterogeneity using a negative binomial model. The empirical results indicate that policies are important for stimulating innovations in biotechnologies. The development of feed-in-tariffs (FITs) and the implementation of tradable green certificates have had a positive and statistically significant impact on patent activity. The economic impact of green certificates is found to be larger than that of FITs. In addition, R&D activities have also had a positive and statistically significant effect on innovation.     

Disentangling regulatory policy: The effects of state regulations on trucking rates

This paper combines state-level data on trucking rates with information on state-level regulations to estimate the independent effect on rates from three different types of motor carrier regulations: rate regulation; entry regulation; and the provision of antitrust immunity for decisions made jointly by motor carrier rate bureaus. The empirical results indicate that state-level motor carrier regulations generally increase trucking rates, with entry regulation having the largest effect in the LTL (less-than-truckload) sector and rate regulation having the largest effect in the TL (truckload) sector. The study also examines interaction effects among the three types of regulations and concludes that the combination of strict entry requirements and antitrust immunity leads to significant increases in trucking rates.This project was begun when both authors were in the Bureau of Economics of the Federal Trade Commission. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Commission or any individual Commissioner. We are grateful to Ed Rastatter of the Department of Transportation for granting us access to the data analyzed in this report, and to Bruce Allen of Wharton who provided them to us in machine readable form. We thank James MacDonald, Paul Pautler and Ed Rastatter for comments on an earlier draft. We also are grateful to Lynn Carpenter, Karen Condor, Effie Georges, Dolly Howarth, Andrew Kim, Georges Pascoe, and Carolyn Samuels for their research and programming assistance.     

Solar energy and the national energy dilemma : A model for policy evaluation

This study presents solar-enhanced energy scenarios for the future together with the policy considerations they imply. The methodology known as system dynamics is employed, and the work reported here builds on an earlier model developed by Sasser.Policy-related implications include the following. First, after-tax costs of solar technology must be competitive with the costs for coal as well as those for oil and gas to achieve a substantial market penetration. Second, the collapse predicted by the original Sasser model used in this study can be postponed by solar technology alone but not avoided. If solar technology is allowed to supply nearly 100% of the energy needs of each energy consumption sector, then each sector is allowed 100 years more growth before the inevitable collapse occurs. Third, the amount of imported crude oil that can be displayed by solar energy in the next two decades of this century is modest.     

The effects and policy implications of state aids to industry: an economic analysis

The use of state aids to industry is a poorly understood part of competition policy. Currently, the EU Commission presumes that state aids distort competition, yet it approves 98% of applications, often for social or distributional reasons. We argue that proper regulation of state aids should focus on two issues, the externalities generated and the inefficiencies arising from failures in competition between governments. We thus develop a new framework for EU policy and compare its implications with the existing practice of the EU Commission.     

Hedging neoliberalism: derivatives as state policy in Mexico

This article fills the gap in the critical political economy literature by acknowledging the adoption of derivatives as state policy in middle-income countries such as Mexico. The article argues that the Mexican state has turned derivatives into a policy instrument to deal with the capitalist contradictions intensified by neoliberalism. This has created a particular institutional setting that favours large firms and financial investors over working classes. The article examines the role of derivatives as policy instruments in Mexico through the Mexican Ministry of Agriculture’s use of corn futures options during the 2007–8 food crisis and Ministry of Finance's and Central Bank's adoption of hedging strategies through oil derivatives and US dollar put options to preserve the state budget and increase foreign reserves respectively during the 2007–10 global financial crisis.     

Bounding revenue leakages at scale-bid timber auctions: evidence from Wisconsin state forest auctions

Bid skewing is a potential issue when timber is sold at scale-bid auctions and the seller’s timber-cruise estimate is used for bid evaluation. I illustrate the problem and its potential effect on seller stumpage revenue, and then quantify the impact of species-specific reserve prices as well as species-specific bid caps using data gathered from 41 Wisconsin State forestry auctions.     

Regulation, technology strategy and energy policy: the missing link

Two new regulatory agencies were establishd as part of the process of privatization of the gas and electricity industries in the UK and, subsequently, an independent Energy Saving Trust was setup. This paper explores some of the problems these bodies face in attempting to operate effectively, with regard to the development and deployment of new renewable energy and enw-saving technologies, in the absence of a fully developed national energy policy. It also asks whether they can be seen as in any way prototypes for more radical, interventionist types of regulatory agency, and whether, as some intmentionists would prefer, these agencies could play a more positive role in shaping the development of technology and technology policy.     

Industrial policy and the neutrality of the state

Some insights from recent debates on the Marxian theory of the state are applied to the analysis of state intervention in production in liberal democratic capitalist societies. It is argued that such industrial policies tend to undermine the apparent neutrality both of the state and of the market as a mechanism for the allocation of resources.     

The impacts of energy insecurity on household welfare in Cambodia: Empirical evidence and policy implications

This study investigates the impacts of energy insecurity on household welfare in Cambodia. The notion of energy insecurity is not well understood in the literature as well as in local contexts. This study defines household energy insecurity as the status quo derived from the interplay of inadequate and insufficient energy consumption that prevents households from meeting basic energy needs. The notion of energy insecurity can only be well understood by investigation in the local context as it varies from place to place. Households facing insufficient energy consumption may forgo many other opportunities. Once energy security has been defined in the Cambodian context, the study employs multiple regression models using the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey Data (2015) to investigate the impacts of household energy insecurity. The study confirmed that energy insecurity has enormous negative impact on welfare of the households, with a further negative impact on the human capital formation of the children. The findings will lead to policy implications to improve household energy security, and thus impact economic, social, and environmental development.     

The big story

When a mega-policy issue--health care reform--runs up against the Information Age, the result is likely to be increased earnings and career-making opportunities for journalists.     

New Labour, energy policy and 'competitive markets'

By the end of New Labour's first term four central objectivesof energy policy had become established: ‘cheap’energy, the relief of fuel poverty, a major reduction of carbondioxide emissions, and energy security through maintaining awide diversity of primary fuel supplies, all to be achievedthrough ‘competition’. After surveying New Labourenergy policy documents, the paper argues that New Labour failedto appreciate (i) the extent to which, under such a laissezfaire policy regime, these objectives were mutually inconsistent;(ii) that the apparent successes of energy market liberalisationduring the preceding Conservative Governments had little todo with ‘competition’; and (iii) that the transactioncosts of injecting increasing ‘competition’ intoboth British and European energy systems are likely to exacerbatethe growing threat to energy security. The paper concludes witha brief examination of the implications of transaction costeconomics for the organisational structure of the UK energysupply industry.     

The interaction between macroprudential policy and monetary policy: Overview

This paper presents the main findings of an International Banking Research Network initiative examining the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in determining international bank lending. We give an overview on the data, empirical specifications and results of the seven papers from the initiative. The papers are from a range of core and smaller advanced economies, and emerging markets . The main findings are as follows. First, there is evidence that macroprudential policy in recipient countries can partly offset the spillover effects of monetary policy conducted in core countries. Meanwhile, domestic macroprudential policy in core countries can also affect the cross‐border transmission of domestic monetary policy via lending abroad, by limiting the increase in lending by less strongly capitalized banks. Second, the findings highlight that studying heterogeneities across banks provides complementary insights to studies using more aggregate data and focusing on average effects. In particular, we find that individual bank characteristics such as bank size or GSIB status play a first‐order role in the transmission of these policies. Finally, the impacts differ considerably across prudential policy instruments, which also suggests the importance of more granular analysis.     

Incentives for investment in energy efficiency: an econometric evaluation and policy implications

Technical studies suggest that there exist many opportunities to improve energy efficiency, and that a substantial proportion is profitable by current business standards. This study deals with the question why so many of these profitable opportunities are not used. Reasons for not implementing profitable opportunities are idetified, and their effect is estimated on the basis ofa survey among Dutch firms, designed specifically for this study. The reasons that prevail indicate what policy measures may accompany energy taxes in the pursuit of energy efficiency improvement. In addition, energy efficiency elasticities are estimated, as well as the factors that determine the elasticities. These too indicate opportunities for government policy, if it wants to improve the effectiveness of energy taxes.     

Clean energy policy: Taxing carbon and the illusion of the equity objective

The Australian government has passed legislation, the Clean Energy Future Policy, establishing a carbon-emission pricing scheme. While the scheme is represented as the most efficient and cost effective means of reducing emissions, the government has also committed to ensuring equity in burden sharing, particularly through the use of household compensation methods and by minimising the disadvantages faced by energy-intensive trade-exposed industries thereby committing to these industries' continued developments. Treasury modelling used to determine the required level of household compensation has remained relatively uncontested. We question the conclusion of equity in burden sharing on the basis of this modelling. The modelling reflects fairly standard conventional economic theory in terms of market structures, the determination of prices and outputs, and the characterisation of factor markets. The behavioural assumptions overstate the consumer and producer substitution possibilities, failing to consider the possibility of technical reswitching, and ignore the impact that oligopolistic market structures would have on price increases and infrastructure investment. The full ramifications of compensation for overall government expenditure and therefore the capacity of the government to continue to fund a range of elements of the social wage, the potential for unemployment and transitioning workers to less carbon-intensive industries, are also overlooked.     

奥巴马政府新能源政策的启示与借鉴

作为在金融危机中诞生的总统,奥巴马选择了以新能源计划促进美国经济复苏和创造就业机会.开发新能源可带动美国传统制造业部门重整旗鼓.利用传统制造业的基础设施、人才和技术的同时推动新能源技术的研发和生产,发展新能源还能带来就业机会.奥巴马希望通过“清洁能源国家战略”改变美国.在美国经济低迷、金融危机消极影响持续存在的情况下,奥巴马政府的新能源政策将是提振美国经济的一剂强心针.深入研究奥巴马时代的新能源政策可能产生的影响就显得十分必要,这对于当今中国新能源政策的制定也具有一定的参考意义.     

欧盟可再生能源政策研究

欧盟作为全球温室气体减排行动的积极倡导者,近年来积极引领和推动绿色低碳经济的发展,实现欧洲“再工业化”的战略构想,在可再生能源发展方面成效显著.本文分析了欧盟可再生能源政策的法律基础,研究了欧盟支持和促进可再生能源发展的主要政策措施,特别是欧盟加强可再生能源投资的主要做法,并总结了欧盟成员国支持可再生能源发展的主要财政与金融工具,希望为我国可再生能源发展提供借鉴.     

Negative price spikes at power markets: the role of energy policy

In Germany, substantial drops in wholesale power prices have become a regular phenomenon. While such price drops have far-reaching implications for the functioning of the power market, their underlying determinants remain poorly understood. To fill this gap, we propose a Markov regime-switching model to investigate low-price events at the European Power Exchange. Our analysis focuses on the role of energy policies that promote renewable energies and have led to significant reductions of nuclear capacities after the Fukushima accident. We find that high electricity infeed from renewable sources increases negative price spike probabilities, while the decommissioning of nuclear plants under the Nuclear Moratorium had an opposing effect. Simulations of market outcomes under different energy policies indicate that reaching ambitious renewable energy targets increases the frequency of low-price events and compromises the financial viability of conventional generation units, while a nuclear phase-out or an increase in storage capacities mitigates these effects.