Land,men and taxation: an application to pre-modern China and Europe Erik Jones’ European Miracle revisited

Eric Jones has found that excessive taxes were detrimental for pre-modern China’s economic growth whereas moderate taxes were conducive for Europe’s economic growth. This paper provides a political-economic answer to the question why these two tax systems came about. Taxation is only feasible when men and land can be linked as a single bundle. Taxation of land is not feasible without men, and taxation of men is not feasible without land. A tax maximizing bureaucrat has to combine the two variables in such a way that tax revenues are maximized given the constraints of land and men in his country. China’s contiguous geography allows bureaucrats to establish an autocratic tax system whereas Europe’s split geography enforces a competitive tax system. Therefore often contiguous states reveal to be stable states whereas split states turn out to be unstable and prone to collapse.     

Revising the European Central Bank’s fiscal rules to support growth and employment

Abstract

The paper presents a reform proposal for the operations of the European Central Bank (ECB) whose purpose is to create a common set of risk-free assets for financial institutions operating in the euro area (EA), which is the necessary condition for having a single internal financial market. The proposal does not require the introduction of changes in the existing European Union treaties. The effects of this reform on the debt dynamic of EA member countries permit a revision of the existing fiscal rules. With the help of some simulations, it is shown that maintaining compliance with the European treaties, the reform of the ECB operations and revised fiscal rules would transform the current fiscal deflationary stance into a reflationary one. Some implications for aggregate demand and growth for the EA are briefly discussed.     

‘Efficient’ market testing of the expectations-adjusted supply function hypothesis for Italy

This paper analyses the intertemporal adjustment process of price–cost margins at the four-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) industry level. Our intial analysis shows the assumption that the adjustment process is consistent over all industries is inappropriate, while the assumption that the adjustment process is consistent over two-digit industries is supported in approximately 31% of the sample industries. We proceed to analyse industry-specific adjustment parameters and find that 50% of the sample are compatible with a decay of 90% of the supranormal return with four years and 85% of the sample exhibit margins that decay in approximately 10 years. Further analysis allows us draw some weak conclusions on the determinants of the adjustment parameter. We find a change in cocentration, high imports, a mature market and low research and development expenditures contribute to slightly lower adjustment coefficients and a faster decay of supranormal profits. Finally, the modelling of the adjustment coefficients highlights the risks associated with excluding outlier data points.     

Unit root testing against an ST–MTAR alternative: finite-sample properties and an application to the UK housing market

A class of smooth transition momentum-threshold autoregressive (ST–MTAR) tests is proposed to allow testing of the unit root hypothesis against an alternative of asymmetric adjustment about a smooth nonlinear trend. Monte-Carlo simulation is employed to derive finite-sample critical values for the proposed test and illustrate its attractive power properties against a range of stationary alternatives. The empirical relevance of the ST–MTAR test is highlighted via an application to aggregate house price data for the UK. Interestingly, house prices are found to exhibit structural change characterized a fitted logistic smooth transition process, with the newly proposed ST–MTAR test providing the most significant results of the alternative smooth transition unit root tests available.     

Liberalization,bankers’ motivation and productivity: A simple model with an application

Proponents of financial liberalization argue that deregulation motivates bankers to increase their effort and operate at a higher level of efficiency and productivity. Sceptics, however, see that liberalization engenders economic instability and banking crises, and impedes growth. Bank efficiency and productivity, following liberalization, is extensively examined. Nonetheless, the core issue of bankers’ self-motivation remains implicitly assumed and unaddressed. Does liberalization self-motivate bankers and increase their efforts and productivity? This paper models bank productivity from this perspective and evaluates what proportion of banks’ total factor productivity is accounted for by the self-motivated productivity of bankers. We provide a micro-founded framework for the analyses of bankers’ optimal level of effort and effort-driven productivity. Our model also captures banks’ unit input-output prices, optimal wages, bank spread and the overall cost of bank services – measures that are important in evaluating reform policies. We assess the financial liberalization of Nepal as a test case and find that (i) bankers’ efforts and productivity have notably improved in Nepal, although banking services have become costly, and (ii) bank spread has moderately declined in recent years. Our approach is parametric which differs from DEA, hence complements the literature. We hope this analytical framework will be useful to evaluate reform episodes elsewhere.     

The ‘advancedness’ of knowledge in pollution-saving technological change with a qualitative application to SO2 cap and trade

This paper investigates the extent to which ‘advanced’ knowledge and technology played a role in the SO2 compliance process in electric power plants under the US SO2 cap and trade program. It investigates the hypothesis that advanced knowledge and technology dedicated to pollution abatement played a minor role in that process while relatively unadvanced forms of knowledge and technology played the main role. New qualitative evidence in this somewhat well-known case is considered: interviews with electric power plant R&D managers, plant-level compliance data, and the changes undergone by boiler manufacturer, coal mining and railroad companies in the supply chain. Advanced knowledge dedicated to pollution abatement like the type now being emphasised for carbon capture and storage (CCS) played a minor role, while unadvanced knowledge and technology played the main role. While there are clearly limits to how far this unadvanced knowledge and technology finding can be generalised to GHG emission control, the specific aspects of the SO2 case that might be broadly informative of the response to GHG emissions are elaborated. In any case, the paper shows how ‘innovation’ in pollution control can be inexpensive and effective without involving very much advanced knowledge and technology for pollution control.     

Solving RE models with discontinuous policy rules – an application to minimum wage setting in Germany

The legal regulations require the minimum wage in Germany to be adjusted biennially which gives rise to a policy discontinuity. From the perspective of rational expectations models, such policy features render standard local approximation techniques infeasible. The article presents a stylized model in which negotiated wages and corporate profits are the outcome of an optimization problem, while changes to the minimum wage are modelled by a discontinuous policy rule. Using the simple example of minimum wage setting in Germany, the article illustrates how such models can be solved using the method of undetermined coefficients and presents selected simulation results.     

Is growth of services an obstacle to productivity growth? A comparative analysis

The relationship between economic structure and productivity growth has been a subject of increasing interest over recent decades. The innovative focus of this paper concerns the role of the service sector in this relationship. Services play a core role in advanced economies, both from a quantitative and a strategic point of view. However, empirical research in this area lies considerably behind the research into the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. This paper focuses on the impact of tertiarisation on overall productivity growth, using a sample of 37 OECD countries in the period between 1980 and 2005. The results partially refute traditional knowledge on the productivity of services. Contrary to what conventional theories suggest, this research demonstrates that several tertiary activities have shown dynamic productivity growth rates, while their contribution to overall productivity growth plays a more important role than was historically believed.     

An index number framework for explaining changes in input productivity– an application to energy efficiency

Lott (2009) finds that nonvoted ballot rates for down-ballot races are greater than those for presidential races, and newer technologies that reduce nonvoted presidential ballots create even greater rates of nonvoting down-ballot than the same older voting technologies. The conclusion is momentous: adopting voting technologies that minimize under-voting in presidential races actually increases under-voting across all races on the same ballot. This study extends Lott's by examining the Congressional vote on the Help America Vote Act of 2002 (HAVA 2002), which established a program to provide funds to states in order to replace punch card voting systems with newer technologies. We focus on the racial component of Lott's finding, specifically that Hispanic-American voters exhibit greater rates of voter fatigue than do white voters. This study posits that, given the large Hispanic-American populations in California and Texas and their propensity to support Democrats in these states, House Democrats from these states would not view the HAVA 2002 as favourably as House Democrats from other parts of the US. Among other results presented here, the data show that support for HAVA 2002 among California and Texas House Democrats was 11.6 percentage points below that of House Democrats from the other 48 states.     

What is wrong with aggregate production functions. On Temple’s ‘aggregate production functions and growth economics’

In an article in the 2006 volume of this journal, Jonathan Temple presented a defence of the use of the aggregate production function in growth theory in the light of various criticisms that have been levelled at it. These criticisms include the Cambridge Capital Theory Controversies, various aggregation problems, and the problems posed by the use of value data and the underlying accounting identity. We show that Temple has underestimated the seriousness of these criticisms, especially the last one, which vitiates the concept of the aggregate production function. Because of the identity, estimates of putative aggregate production functions, such as the aggregate elasticity of substitution, cannot be interpreted as reflecting the underlying technology, and hence the use of the aggregate production function is extremely problematical.     

The contribution of the publicly‐funded R&D capital to productivity growth and an application to the Greek food and beverages industry

This paper follows the dual‐cost function methodology and develops a theoretical specification that assesses the contribution of public R&D capital to the productivity growth. The empirical application focuses on the Greek food and beverages industry. For this purpose it employs a micro‐aggregated annual data set over the period 1976–2002. The regression analysis shows that publicly‐funded R&D capital is a productive input as 8.7% and 7.3% of the total factor productivity growth in the food industry and in the beverages industry respectively is attributed to the publicly‐funded R&D capital. The relationship between publicly‐funded R&D and privately‐purchased inputs is also examined.     

Public–private partnerships for the provision of public goods: Theory and an application to NGOs

When will a public good or service be provided by the government, when will it be provided by a NGO, and when will we see a private–public partnership? This paper provides a model where a typical public good requires different inputs which raises the possibility of partnerships to exploit comparative advantages of different parties. But hold-up problems due to contractual incompleteness in specifying tasks discourage separation of ownership and management. The fact that public goods have the property of non-rivalry and non-excludability and that NGOs tend to be non-profits drives our key results. We apply the framework to NGOs in developing countries which, in the last few decades, have been increasingly involved in various capacities in the provision of a wide range of public goods and services.     

Testing for nonlinear panel unit roots under cross-sectional dependency — With an application to the PPP hypothesis

In this paper we propose a number of nonlinear panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-sectional dependency. These tests may be used to test the null hypothesis of non-stationarity against the alternative that some or all of the time series in the system of equations follow a stationary exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) process. In contrast to previous research we relax the assumption that the cross-correlation structure is driven by a common-factor and consider an endogenous correlation structure. Based on the size and power results from the Monte Carlo simulations we recommend using the Wald version of our cross-sectional dependent robust nonlinear panel unit root (CDR-NPU) method.Finally, in an empirical application we demonstrate that our more powerful nonlinear method, in contrast to previous methods, can provide support for PPP even in smaller samples. In consistency with the univariate tests in Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2008) our CDR-NPU tests support the theory that less industrialized economies exhibit stronger and more distinct nonlinear adjustment patterns towards PPP.     

What is an ‘endogenous state space’?

Summary. In the literature on choice under unforeseen contingencies, the decision maker behaves as if she aggregates possible instances of future rankings indexed by a set S. The set S is interpreted as a subjective state space even though subsequent rankings need not conform to any one of the aggregated utilities. This paper proposes a definition for a subjective state space under unforeseen contingencies that is topologically unique, derives its existence from preference primitives as opposed to the representation of preferences, and does not commit to an interpretation in which states correspond to future realized rankings. The definition topologically concurs with and extends the identification of the essentially unique subjective state space due to Dekel, Lipman and Rustichini [4].Received: 28 October 2003, Revised: 13 October 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D11, D81, D91.I thank Eddie Dekel, Alan Kraus, Bart Lipman, Chris Shannon, and the referee for some helpful remarks.     

Access to infrastructure and women’s time allocation: Implications for growth and gender equality

Improved access to infrastructure is commonly viewed as a critical step to increase women’s labor force participation and promote economic growth in developing countries. This positive relationship is first established in a basic gender-based, overlapping generations model with collective households and congestion costs. The model is then extended to account for endogenous gender bias in the market place and women’s bargaining power, as well as fertility choices and rearing time. Numerical experiments, based on a calibrated version of the extended model, show that increased access to infrastructure may induce women to devote more time to child rearing – in line with the model’s predictions and some of the empirical evidence – thereby mitigating the increase in time allocated to market work. As a result, it may weaken the benefits of increased female labor force participation in terms of reduced gender bias in the market place, improved women’s bargaining power in the family, and higher growth rates in the long run.