Revisiting and extending our understanding of Pierre Wack's the gentle art of re-perceiving

Pierre Wack's 1985 Harvard Business Review papers are two of the most frequently referenced in the scenario planning literature. Wack argued that planning had to be based on the more predictive elements of the business environment. If not, plans would be based on uncertainty and a ‘best guess’ basis. Yet there is a lack of subsequent empirical research to investigate Pierre Wack's contribution. The research findings presented in this paper extend our understanding of Wack's contribution. We show how social discourse during scenario building helped to make sense and reveal the significance of historical events. These historical events were seen, but not previously understood; consequently a new understanding of reality emerged. The findings are in contrast to Wack's explanation of re-perceiving and extend our understanding of the basis of re-perceiving with scenarios.     

Dynamic stability and reform of political institutions

This paper examines endogenous institutional change in a class of dynamic political games. The political aggregation rules used at date t+1 are instrumental choices under rules at date t. Effectively, rules are “players” who can strategically delegate future policy-making authority to different rules. A political rule is stable if it selects itself. A reform occurs when an alternative rule is selected. The stability of a political rule is shown to depend on whether its choices are dynamically consistent. For instance, simple majority rules can be shown to be dynamically consistent in many common environments where wealth-weighted voting rules are not. The result extends to political rules that incorporate private activities such as extra-legal protests, threats, or private investment. The approach is one way of understanding various explanations of institutional change proposed in the literature. A parametric model of public goods provision gives an illustration.     

Dynamic stability and reform of political institutions

This paper examines endogenous institutional change in a class of dynamic political games. The political aggregation rules used at date t+1 are instrumental choices under rules at date t. Effectively, rules are “players” who can strategically delegate future policy-making authority to different rules. A political rule is stable if it selects itself. A reform occurs when an alternative rule is selected. The stability of a political rule is shown to depend on whether its choices are dynamically consistent. For instance, simple majority rules can be shown to be dynamically consistent in many common environments where wealth-weighted voting rules are not. The result extends to political rules that incorporate private activities such as extra-legal protests, threats, or private investment. The approach is one way of understanding various explanations of institutional change proposed in the literature. A parametric model of public goods provision gives an illustration.     

Domestic Sources of Twenty-first-century Geopolitics: Domestic Politics and Sovereign Wealth Funds in GCC Economies

The present article brings domestic politics into an analysis on sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) that are relevant for the study of contemporary geopolitics. What are the domestic drivers behind SWF creation, and how does a country’s domestic political environment affect the creation of these funds? Using a comparative historical case study on sovereign funds in Gulf Cooperation Countries, this article investigates the effects of domestic state–society structures on decisions about SWF creation and their evolving structure. Thereby, this article adds to an emerging stream of literature that looks at the drivers and implications of SWFs. One of the key findings of this analysis is that there are systematic links between the sovereign fund types and domestic structures; these structures include and exclude socio-economic actors that influence policy-making decisions.     

土地一级市场垄断与地方公共品供给

在当前制度背景下,地方政府既是公共品的提供者,又是垄断了土地交易一级市场、"经营"土地的"企业家".本文建立一个理论模型阐明了,尽管垄断更多的国有土地能够放松财政约束,但均衡时地方政府会将更多的财政资源投入到能让土地增值和未来税收增长的基础设施建设中,教育、医疗和社会保障等公共服务并不一定是宽裕财政收入的受益者.利用全国284个地级市2003--2008年的面板数据的实证研究发现:在控制住其他变量后,地方政府垄断更多国有土地转让会显著增加经济性公共品的供给,非经济性公共品的供给则会显著下降.     

Institutional quality and public spending in Europe: A quantile regression approach

We appraise the effects of institutional quality on public spending for a set of 27 European countries and 18 Euro-area economies over the 1996–2017 period. While institutions play a weak role in affecting spending once the fixed-effects model is employed, the application of the quantile regression indicates that improved institutional quality mitigates public spending, although the effects crucially depend on the distribution of public expenditure and the sample examined. For both the Euro-area sample and the full sample, we show that better quality of institutions reduces public spending, although the effects become less significant the higher the levels of public spending. Further, for the Euro-area sample, institutions appear to have a stronger role in mitigating public spending. Several robustness tests confirm our findings.     

Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands

Using real-time data from the annual budgets over the period 1958–2009, we explore budgetary planning and implementation in the Netherlands. Three fiscal policy regimes are distinguished. Our key findings are the following. First, plans are on average unbiased, although they are overoptimistic during earlier parts of our sample and overly pessimistic during the later parts of our sample, when revenues are under-projected. Second, general economic conditions and the state of the public finances are important determinants of both plans and their implementation. Third, this is also the case for political and institutional factors. Expenditure overruns are partly related to political factors, whereas cautious revenue forecasts relate to the institutional setting. Fourth, under the most recent regime of “trend-based budgeting” implementation was strongest relative to planning. In fact, this regime may contain some elements that are useful for designing national fiscal arrangements elsewhere.     

Organizational ambidexterity: Integrating deliberate and emergent strategy with scenario planning

In this article we propose scenario planning as a tool for fostering organizational ambidexterity. The concept of organizational ambidexterity continues to gain attention, however, clear methods for developing this organizational ability are generally not offered. We therefore describe organizational ambidexterity and situate it in the general strategy literature. Key characteristics of organizational ambidexterity are provided, and the logical link to scenario planning is made. As the concept of organizational ambidexterity is relatively novel, our proposal highlights the use of scenario planning as a potential tool for developing this organizational “skill”, and clear next steps are described to examine our proposal as well as leverage the concept of organizational ambidexterity beyond that of a simple metaphor.     

Interregional Disparities in Productivity and the Choice of Fiscal Regime

Two districts with divergent productivity levels engage in policy-making on the provision of local public goods that enhance future income and hence create a dynamic linkage across periods. The policy choices of district representatives are derived under alternative fiscal systems, and the relative merits of the systems are evaluated. It is predicted that a decentralized system is more likely to be selected in a more equal society. On the other hand, when a great deal of benefit spills over from a local public good, or when policy makers are expected to care solely about the immediate effects of their decisions on their districts, a centralized system is more likely to be selected.     

Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country

In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.     

Bargaining with Multinationals: Why State Capacity Matters

Dominant models of bargaining between states and multinational corporations (MNCs) have widely held that bargaining relations, especially in high-technology manufacturing, have changed from confrontational to cooperative. It is consequently argued that there is little formal entry bargaining among these actors. However, there are three primary weaknesses in this literature. First, the understanding of outcomes is limited to the terms of investment agreements. This static view ignores the dynamics of bargaining processes and decisions not to invest, which also deserve explanation. Second, it is MNC-centric, ignoring state's privileged role in relation to the governance of entry bargaining in domestic policy-making processes. Third, it views state as a monolithic entity, ignoring the bargaining that occurs inside states. To redress these issues, this article offers a state-centric bargaining model. It identifies administrative and institutional capacity as two critical components of state capacity. It chooses the entry bargaining from 2005, when Hyundai Motors Corporation considered establishing a USD1.5 billion car-manufacturing plant in Turkey. It shows that state capacity in the governance of a domestic policy-making process affects the outcome of entry bargaining: When state capacity is weak, an MNC's decision not to invest is a more likely outcome.     

Corruption in public service delivery: An experimental analysis

To improve our understanding of corruption in service delivery, we use a newly designed game that allows us to investigate the effects of the institutional environment on the behavior of service providers and their monitors. We focus on the effect of four different factors: whether monitors are accountable to the service recipients, the degree of observability of service providers’ effort, the providers’ wages and the providers’ professional norms. In accordance with theory, we find that service providers perform better when monitors are elected by service recipients and when their effort is more easily observed. However, there is only weak evidence that service providers perform better when paid more. Monitors are more vigilant when elected and when service providers are paid more. Playing the game with Ethiopian nursing students, we also find that those with greater exposure to the Ethiopian public health sector perform less well, either as provider or as monitor, when the experiment is framed as a public health provision scenario, suggesting that experience and norms affect behavior.     

Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

The effects of future financing constraints on capital accumulation: Some new results on the constrained investment problem

In this paper, we study the effects of future constraints on current investment decisions. Unlike the standard literature on this optimizing problem, we present a model in which firms are neither always constrained nor always unconstrained. We are concerned with those cases where a firm is free from constraints at the current time but expects to face an upper bound at some later date. Using the ‘no arbitrage principle’ in the constrained scenario, we show how to explicitly calculate the optimal investment path switching between regimes. The analytical result shows that the effects of future financing constraints are included in the market value of the firm, and thus are captured by marginal q.     

Uncertainty, human action and scenarios

The “scenario method,” “scenario building,” or “multiple futures analysis” emerged during the last decades as a premier instrument for strategic planning and decision making in conditions of uncertainty. This article demonstrates that there is an intrinsic link between the scenario method and Austrian theory not only at the level of basic epistemological principles but also at the methodological and applied levels. The article also argues that the scenario method could easily be embraced as a part of the Austrian family of ideas and more precisely as one of the key policy applications or decision support tools informed by that school of thought. Blending explicitly and systematically the scenario method with the Austrian ideas and forcefully making the case for the scenario approach as a policy and business administration tool, is thus one of the most effective ways of reasserting the importance of Austrian insights in areas such as business studies, public policy, and organizational theory, areas that currently have a limited exposure to Austrian ideas.     

Return to the “natural” process of decision-making leads to good strategies

A novel approach to strategic management, Risk-Constrained Optimization (RCO), is an ensemble of special models, procedures, and algorithms to generate, evaluate, and help in executing good alternative strategies. RCO is a patented system of planning under uncertainty that searches for the most acceptable compromise between improving results and reducing risk in our decisions. Risk management and scenario planning dominate over optimization. RCO still uses maximization, but only in combination with several protective filters that screen, modify, and scale back the strategies, as necessary. As with any protective equipment, RCO could reduce the need for knowledge about the future.JEL Classification: D21, D81, C61I would like to acknowledge extremely helpful and insightful comments of Professor Mark Perlman (to whom this article owes very, very much), Professor Irma Adelman, Erwin Rezelman, Dr. Victor V. Masch, and an anonymous reviewer. I also greatly appreciate help in editing by David Owens and Professor Irving Rothman.     

POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNANCE, AND CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

This article aims at identifying the determinants of government expenditures of developing countries by placing emphasis on the political institutions and governance variables, which have not been addressed so much in the previous literature. Using a panel data analysis for 97 developing countries from the period 1984 to 2004, this study finds evidence that controlling for economic, social, and demographical factors, political institutional and governance variables significantly influence the consumption expenditure in developing countries. Political institutional variables such as the type of political ruling and political power in the parliament positively influence consumption expenditure; on the contrary, governance variables such as corruption influence negatively. Furthermore, we find that autocratic governments with military ruling are not particularly accommodative toward consumption expenditures as the public spending significantly shrinks under military dictatorship compared with other forms of governance. In order to check consistency of our findings, we ran alternative specifications as well as conducted extreme bound tests. Our results largely survived these tests showing robustness of our findings. (JEL E01, E02, E61, E62, H2, H4, H5, H6, O11, O5)     

Firm-specific risk and IPO market cycles

This article characterizes the role of risk in the initial public offering (IPO) cycle. While most of the previous literature uses the volatility of IPO initial returns to measure risk, we focus on different risk measures, namely firm-level systematic and idiosyncratic volatilities and the market-wide implied volatility index (VIX), to assess their role in the IPO cycle. Our results shed new light on (1) which risk measure is important in the determination of IPO cycles, (2) the temporal pattern of each risk component across issuing firms and (3) the relationship between market-wide uncertainty and IPO risk. Our findings reveal a lead-lag relationship between IPO waves, VIX and the IPO systematic risk measure. We also highlight the fact that market-level uncertainty predicts IPO activity and the level of idiosyncratic risk of the next-period-issuing firms. Issuing firms’ systematic risk can only be predicted by the systematic risk of firms now proceeding to their offering. The main implication resulting from our study is that one can better anticipate ‘hot-issue’ markets, as well as the specific risk components of future new issues. This will help improve upon the regulatory environment, IPO investment decisions and IPO timing given market receptivity.