Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach

In parallel with the increasing complexity and uncertainty of social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value systems (STEEPV), there is a need for a systemic approach in Foresight. Recognizing this need, the paper begins with the introduction of the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) is introduced briefly as a conceptual framework to understand and appreciate the complexity of systems and interdependencies and interrelationships between their elements. Conducting Foresight systemically involves a set of ‘systemic’ thought experiments, which is about how systems (e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems, and innovation systems) are understood, modelled and intervened for a successful change programme. A methodological approach is proposed with the use of network analysis to show an application of systemic thinking in Foresight through the visualisation of interrelationships and interdependencies between trends, issues and actors, and their interpretation to explain the evolution of systems. Network analysis is a powerful approach as it is able to analyse both the whole system of relations and parts of the system at the same time and hence it reveals the otherwise hidden structural properties of the systems. Our earlier work has attempted to incorporate network analysis in Foresight, which helped to reveal structural linkages of trends and identify emerging important trends in the future. Following from this work, in this paper we combine systemic Foresight, network analysis and scenario methods to propose an ‘Evolutionary Scenario Approach,’ which explains the ways in which the future may unfold based on the mapping of the gradual change and the dynamics of aspects or variables that characterise a series of circumstances in a period of time. Thus, not only are evolutionary scenarios capable of giving a snapshot of a particular future, but also explaining the emerging transformation pathways of events and situations from the present into the future as systemic narratives.     

Foresight for science parks: the case of Ankara University

This paper reports a Foresight exercise, which was carried out to develop a research strategy and a business model for the science park of Ankara University (AU). Science parks have been crucial elements of innovation systems both in developed and developing countries because their role in bridging the gap between academia and business through knowledge spill-overs and spin-offs. Although there is a widespread consensus about the usefulness of the science park concept, the actual performance of science parks and how well they meet expectations have been controversial. This paper discusses the success factors for science parks. A three-dimensional policy framework, which includes ‘complementarity’, ‘networking’ and ‘strategic scalar positioning’ is suggested to be taken into account during the design and operation of science parks. The paper describes the Foresight process and the policies and strategies developed by using the three-dimensional policy framework proposed for the newly established science park at Ankara University.     

Robots and us: towards an economics of the ‘Good Life’

(Expected) adverse effects of the ‘ICT Revolution’ on work and opportunities for individuals to use and develop their capacities give a new impetus to the debate on the societal implications of technology and raise questions regarding the ‘responsibility’ of research and innovation (RRI) and the possibility of achieving ‘inclusive and sustainable society’. However, missing in this debate is an examination of a possible conflict between the quest for ‘inclusive and sustainable society’ and conventional economic principles guiding capital allocation (including the funding of research and innovation). We propose that such conflict can be resolved by re-examining the nature and purpose of capital, and by recognising mainstream economics’ utilitarian foundations as an unduly restrictive subset of a wider Aristotelian understanding of choice.     

Is ‘new’ behavioral economics ‘mainstream’?

When comparing ‘new’ and ‘old’ behavioral economics (BE), many argue that ‘new’ BE has close ties with what is often called ‘mainstream’ economics. The aim of this paper is to reframe the ‘old’ vs. ‘new’ BE debate and investigate the nature of the relationship between psychologists, behavioral economists, and ‘mainstream’ economists. This will lead us to develop the concept of ‘space of interaction’, building on Galison’s metaphor of ‘trading zones’, to emphasize the role of outsiders, strategic thinking, and negotiation in ‘new’ BE. By discussing some often implicit arguments in an otherwise disconnected literature, we seek to bring new arguments to the discussions through a careful study of those relationships in the history of ‘new’ BE and its more recent developments. Leaving aside the orthodox/heterodox contrast and comparative approaches, we hope to provide a different account of the changes in ‘new’ BE and its relationship with the ‘mainstream’.     

Search for rules for search

This paper presents the findings of some preliminary ‘laboratory’ investigations into ‘actual’ search behavior. Specifically we looked at situations in which searchers' initial information about the distributions was negligible. It seemed likely that simple ‘rules of thumb’ would be used in such situations. Our findings confirmed this view: we identified five such rules which between them ‘accounted’ for a high proportion of observed behaviour. Moreover, these rules although not ‘optimal’) appear to be reasonably good and may be fairly robust; jointly, they may constitute a better explanation (and predictor) of actual search behaviour than do the currently popular supposedly optimal rules.     

Between Late-Industrialisation and Globalisation: The Hybridisation of Labour Relations among Leading South Korean Firms

South Korea's (hereinafter Korea) labour relations illuminate the possibilities for the ‘hybridisation’ of non-liberal capitalism under globalisation. Unlike the well-known German and Japanese advanced non-liberal capitalisms, Korea appeared to be far less conducive to ‘hybridisation’. First, inclusive labour practices were not well developed. Second, it had introduced comprehensive economic liberalisation following the financial crash of 1998. Despite these unfavourable conditions, leading Korean firms have tended to maintain or even introduce non-liberal practices than to discard them. The resulting melding of non-liberal and liberal practices (‘hybridisation’) can be traced to three legacies of late-industrialisation: state inclination to intervene during crises; countervailing power of labour at leading enterprises; and the intensity of big business rivalry as a force for the assimilation of inclusive practices. The effects of these legacies in generating mixed practices will be illustrated using firm-level case studies from Korea's two leading export sectors. It will also be argued that Korea's pattern of labour relations hybridity is not conducive to convergence with extant forms of advanced capitalism. Hence Korea is more suitably denoted as a form of late-industrialisation hybrid capitalism whose experience is relevant to other late-developers as they achieve ‘advanced’ status.     

Constructing Clinical Use: An Activity-Theoretical Perspective on Implementing New Technology

Abstract

The paper presents recent insights from the ongoing FORLEARN project, which aims to develop Foresight theory and practise by supporting the sharing of experience (‘mutual learning’) in Europe. Six functions of Foresight for policy-making are elaborated on:

• (1)?Informing policy: generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policymakers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design.

• (2)?Facilitating policy implementation: enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of the current situation and future challenges, as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders.

• (3)?Embedding participation in policy-making: facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy-making process, thereby improving its transparency and legitimacy.

• (4)?Supporting policy definition: jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition and implementation.

• (5)?Reconfiguring the policy system: in a way that makes it more apt to address long-term challenges.

• (6)?Symbolic function: indicating to the public that policy is based on rational information.

The relationship between these functions and the tensions that can arise when a Foresight exercise attempts to address more than one function are discussed. Possible approaches for Foresight practice to better achieve the targeted impact on policy-making are outlined and emerging guidelines for improving Foresight practice are presented.     

The Santa Fe approach to complexity: a Marshallian evaluation

The paper examines the characteristics of the ‘Santa Fe approach’ (hereafter SFA) to complexity and attempts its evaluation in terms of the Marshallian intellectual tradition. The paper is organised into three parts. The first part outlines the main features of the SFA The second describes Marshall’s views on complexity and his appeal to common sense as a way to apply economic reasoning (on complex systems) in practice. The last part argues that Marshall’s views on complexity, rather than just being a historical precedent for the SFA, consist in an original illustration of the role of judgement in the use of economic theory.     

The International Labour Organization and the ambivalent politics of financial inclusion in West Africa

This article examines the role of the International Labour Organization (ILO) in promoting ‘financial inclusion’ in West Africa. The role of the ILO in microfinance and financial inclusion has often been overlooked, in contrast to the role played by the World Bank, G20 and like institutions. The ILO is significant here because it suggests a number of ambiguities and important political dynamics that have gone overlooked in previous critical discussions of microcredit, which have often focused on the politics of commercialisation, indebtedness and accumulation by dispossession. This article draws instead on Gramsci’s concepts of subalternity and organic crisis to suggest that the politics of ‘financial inclusion’ in practice are often shaped as much by the political dynamics engendered by the erosion of postcolonial order as by the imperatives of accumulation. The argument is illustrated empirically by examining ILO activities on microinsurance and ‘inclusive finance for workers’ in West Africa, with an emphasis on Senegal.     

‘Technology foresight towards 2020 in China’: the practice and its impacts

Technology foresight has attracted increasing attention from government and academia as well as industry since the 1990s. However, the impact of technology foresight on national strategic decision-making varies from country to country. This paper aims to introduce the ‘Technology Foresight towards 2020’ exercise in China, which has been conducted by a research group in the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper consists of five parts: (1) introduction; (2) the framework for technology foresight towards 2020 in China; (3) the methodology including scenario building for identifying technology demands and the method for processing and analysing the data from a Delphi survey; (4) the major results of a Delphi survey in the following four research fields: Information technology, Biotechnology, Energy technology, Material science and technology; and (5) the impact of the research on decision-making concerning science and technology development in China.     

Cross‐border regionalisation in the ‘New Europe’ ‐ theoretical reflection with two illustrative examples

Regionalisation has recently become a catchword both in political practice and academic discourse. Even if the idea of the ‘Europe of the Regions’ is no longer uncritically accepted, regional imagination still frequently informs the analysis of the European political order. This article seeks to chart alternative ways of understanding political change in Europe. It first outlines the current understanding of the role of regions in Europe, and seeks to put contemporary ideas into historical perspective. The article then examines the standard way of analysing regionalism, the ‘top‐down, bottom‐up’ metaphor. By looking at the scales of politics from a social constructionist perspective the article shows that this widely‐used metaphor does not adequately capture much of the political history of region building, nor is it able to identify the relations of power involved in regionalisation in the era of expanding trans‐boundary linkages and networks across state borders. By illustrating cross‐border regionalisation with examples from Karelia and Catalonia, the article seeks to assess some of the tensions that arise between the new deterritorialised forms of trans‐regional governance and the traditional democratic practice, which is still tightly connected to areal political spaces both institutionally and in terms of the inhabitants’ collective identity. The article argues for a heightened awareness of the relational social power characteristic of network governance and potential leaks in the ‘territorial containers’ of democracy.     

《资本论》第四卷的逻辑:认识发生学

《资本论》第四卷实践的逻辑是:范畴发生的认识机理。在这种意义上,它使范畴的"生产"实践化,首要性地贯彻了"认识"由"历史"生产的原则。历史部分和理论部分的相互构成形成总的写作逻辑,历史部分确立了后续研究的理论指针。方法论意蕴是:(1)根据历史生产方式的"自然生长",显露范畴的内核的生理结构——(剩余)价值;(2)由范畴生产上的层级运动,揭示"结构生长"的历史性;(3)通过"理论"的总体生产,最大程度地彰显方法论批判和认识论批判的内在结合性,具象出政治经济学批判的实践工作路线。因此,它否决了考茨基非法编纂《剩余价值学说史》的错误要求。《资本论》整体上也就统一了"两种认识发生学",即历史(发展)的逻辑和认识(发展)的逻辑,统一了历史的方法与范畴的方法。这种整体性研究树立了政治经济学方法论的构造典范。     

The economic impact of digital technologies in Europe

This paper analyses the economic impact of digital technologies in Europe distinguishing between different stages/domains of the digitalization process. A set of composite Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) indicators is used for capturing the access to ICTs, the ability to use them and the digital empowerment of individuals in key social and economic domains. We argue that the mere accessibility to ICT facilities is only a pre-condition for moving towards a digitalized society, while the ‘level’ and the ‘quality’ in the use of these technologies, as well as the conditions facilitating or hampering digital empowerment, play a much more important role. Several transmission mechanisms from ICT access, usage and digital empowerment to key macro-economic variables (namely labour productivity, gross domestic product per capita, employment growth and the employment rate) are identified. The econometric evidence supports our hypotheses showing that the usage of ICT, and mostly digital empowerment, exert the major economic effects, especially on employment also favouring the inclusion of ‘disadvantaged’ groups in the labour market. We conclude that digitalization may drive productivity and employment growth and that inclusive policies may effectively contribute to bridge the gap between the most favoured and the disadvantaged parts of the population, thus helping in achieving the 2020 Europe targets.     

Imaginative labour and relationships of care: Co-designing prototypes with vulnerable communities

Science-fiction prototyping is often used to explore the social implications of science and technology and to provide inspiration for innovation. The future that is being imagined however often exhibits a form of techno-optimism. This paper critiques that optimism by describing the #Patchworks project in which science fiction prototypes were used to explore the social implications of who does the imagining. Through our vignette we explore how the promissory nature of science fiction prototyping folds back into the present to change current understandings of real life situations. We suggest that the power to imagine and invent futures is often not extended to vulnerable communities, nor does it take into account the differing authority and agency depending on who is telling and who feels able to tell stories. The collision between these different stories and backgrounds in #Patchworks, the co-design project informing this paper, has produced contradictions and negotiations between the speculative practice of ‘tinkering’ used by DIY hackers that act as ‘openings’, an academic focus on innovation and the ‘anchoring’ inherent in the need to produce practical prototypes that solve urgent problems.     

Innovative initiatives supporting inclusive innovation in India: Social business incubation and micro venture capital

In India inclusive innovation through social entrepreneurs is currently booming. However, these entrepreneurs suffer from a lack of finance since the bank system as well as the microfinance sector are unwilling or unable to finance them. However, pioneering finance initiatives have been emerging recently to bridge this gap. This paper discusses these emerging alternative financing initiatives which are forming an innovation eco-system of support for inclusive innovation and social entrepreneurship. It highlights two instruments in particular that are used in conventional innovation support: business incubation and venture capital. Two case studies are undertaken in order to provide evidence on how such instruments can operate with a ‘dual bottom line’ in supporting inclusive innovation and social entrepreneurship.     

C.E. Ferguson and the Neoclassical Theory of Capital: A Matter of Faith

In 1969 the American neoclassical economist C.E. Ferguson wrote that reliance on neoclassical aggregate production and distribution theory is a ‘matter of faith’ to be sorted out (he says ‘answered’) by econometricians. Ferguson was criticized on both sides of the debate for invoking this religious metaphor. Using the methodological framework of A.J. Cohen & G.C. Harcourt (2005), Introduction: capital theory controversy: scarcity, production, equilibrium, and time, in: A. Cohen, G.C. Harcourt & C. Bliss (Eds) Capital Theory, 3 Vols. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, this paper argues that faith plays a recurring role in all capital controversies and especially in modern theories of growth that rely wholesale on the aggregate production function. Ferguson's faith proves to be much more insightful than previously recognized.     

Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: The case of some Italian districts

The “territory” is widely recognized in the literature on business strategy as a critical driver of industrial competitiveness (see, as an example, Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations). The generation and exploitation of new knowledge, both tacit and explicit, through the process of socialization, articulation, combination and internalization (see Nonaka and Takeuchi, The Knowledge-Creating Company) is essential to enable innovation of processes and products of “local” firms.Our recent Foresight exercises in the metal working and machinery district of Lecco and in the silk district of Como show that Foresight can play an important role in creating and exploiting new knowledge, and that different methodologies can be more or less effective to this aim.Critical technology list and interactive workshops, with the participation of entrepreneurs of SMEs and technologists, are more suited to foster the transfer of technologies that have overcome the initial stage of the life cycle and that have been already applied in other sectors. However, when radical innovations are needed in order to face the challenges posed by global competition, other methodologies, as Scenarios, are more appropriate. Even if these approaches are complex and time and resource consuming, they may be very effective in actively involving the most relevant private and public stakeholders of a district, and in making them to envisage the long term future of the economic, social, and cultural structure of their district. In this way Foresight drives the small entrepreneurs, the district stakeholders and the medium and large size firms to play the critical roles of Nonaka and Takeuchi's “frontline employees”, “senior managers” and “middle managers” in their “knowledge creating company”: the first ones grasp what the district is; the second ones build the vision of what it ought to be; the third ones, serve as a bridge between the future and the present.     

A Geopolitical Analysis of Popular Songs in the CCTV Spring Festival Gala, 1983–2013

Based on the notions of ‘popular geopolitics’ and ‘practical geopolitics’, this article explores how China’s geopolitical strategies are represented and reproduced by the popular songs in the CCTV (China Central Television) Spring Festival Gala during the past thirty years (1983–2013). Drawing on the (con)textual and visual analysis of 539 popular songs, how geopolitical knowledges are represented and reproduced by these songs and how these songs are involved with China’s geopolitical strategies are analysed. The main argument of this article indicates that the official regulated popular songs in the annual Gala can be considered as important constitutions of China’s state apparatus which aim at propagandising and legitimating the official geopolitical strategies on both internal and international affairs. As research of the geopolitical engagements of China’s popular music, this article might also be read as a contribution to wider literatures on popular and practical geopolitics from a non-Western perspective.     

The education pillar of the Europe 2020 strategy: a convergence analysis

Empirica - In March 2010, the European Commission launched the Europe 2020 strategy ‘for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth’ in the EU. Education is a major pillar of the Europe...     

Structural Balance of Trade Deficits in a Small Open Economy with Exogenous Capital Flows: A Monetary Approach*

This paper presents a ‘structural’ balance of trade model which can be interpreted as combining two major building blocks. The first one is identical to the monetary approach to the balance of payments. The second, which explains the price level, consists of the orthodox Scandinavian model of price and wage determination. It is shown that under these assumptions the balance of trade deficit can be broken down into a structural, an imported, and a ‘home-made’ component. A n empirical illustration of the structural balance of trade model is given for the New Zealand economy.