强化我国社会风险管理的政策思路

社会风险管理是在发展背景下提出的实现经济社会协调发展的新思维。为应对改革、转型、开放对我国社会保障体制提出的挑战，作者提出了构建我国风险管理的三项对策，即构建我国社会风险管理体系，构建弱势群体临时保护机制和社会风险应急基金以及构建社会风险控制预警系统。     

Licensing under vertical product differentiation: Price vs. quantity competition

This paper develops a duopoly model of vertical product differentiation where two domestic firms incur variable costs of quality development. These domestic firms can purchase a superior foreign technology through licensing. Outcomes between Bertrand and Cournot competition are compared. We find that licensing raises domestic welfare, and domestic welfare is higher in Bertrand than in Cournot competition regardless of whether or not domestic firms engage in licensing. Non-exclusive licensing is also found to benefit the domestic country more than exclusive licensing.     

Natural vs. financial insurance in the management of public-good ecosystems

In the face of uncertainty, ecosystems can provide natural insurance to risk averse users of ecosystem services. We employ a conceptual ecological-economic model in which ecosystem management has a private insurance value and, through ecosystem processes at higher hierarchical levels, generates a positive externality on other ecosystem users. We analyze the allocation of (endogenous) risk and ecosystem quality by risk averse ecosystem managers who have access to financial insurance, and study the implications for individually and socially optimal ecosystem management, and policy design. We show that while an improved access to financial insurance leads to lower ecosystem quality, the effect on the extent of the public-good problem and on welfare is determined by ecosystem properties. We derive conditions on ecosystem functioning under which, if financial insurance becomes more accessible, (i) the extent of optimal regulation increases or decreases; and (ii) welfare, in the absence of environmental regulation, increases or decreases.     

Different approaches of pattern management and strategic intelligence

The world around us contains endless amounts of information. That information is mostly loose in our minds. Very often, it does not at first contact fit in with our conventional understanding, experience or any context we are used to. Hence, we may say that we are overwhelmed with constantly changing raw data, and strategic actors especially tend to be short of more rapid, up-to-date, valid and in-depth understanding of the transforming business landscape and social environment. Strategic intelligence is an emerging field of business consulting, which aims to undertake the task of revealing large, complex or complicated issues of transformation in a more understandable form. Pattern management, however, can be seen as one field or one approach of strategic intelligence. It is an approach that may, on one hand, be based more on empiric data and formal structures than other forms of strategic intelligence, but, on the other hand, it is a very heuristic approach to integrate quantitative data, reasoning and narratives. The main attempts of this article are, first, to show, what are in general the most commonly used ways of managing, finding, drawing, reasoning or anticipating patterns from our environment, and second, to locate how the concept of pattern can be understood in different ways. From the gathered knowledge, this article presents three main categories of reasoning patterns: empirical calculation (EC) is common especially in enterprise consulting. Theory proving with observations (TPO) is common especially in natural sciences, and real combining (RC) is common especially in qualitative research and in narrative.     

WTO与电子商务--透视《服务贸易总协定》(GATS)

本的目的是：在世界贸易组织（WTO）工作计划,特别是在《服务贸易总协议》（GATS）背景下,对于当前关于电子商务的讨论作一综述。本还有助于理解多边贸易体系与新兴电子贸易体系之间的关系。     

Incremental approaches to establishing trust

We investigate cooperation using an incremental investment game in which the first-mover has the ability to make small, but increasing incremental investments in their counterpart. Our experiment is designed to test whether establishing trust in small increments is more effective than alternatives, including a one-shot investment game, a decrease only condition where the amount the first-mover sends to the second-mover must be less than the amount previously sent, and an unrestricted condition where the first-mover is not restricted by the amount previously sent. Although results were mixed, broadly, iteration affords greater cooperation than one-shot games and, when given the choice, participants seem to prefer to build trust gradually. Implications for institutional design are discussed.      

证券价格的事件性反应——方法、背景和基于中国证券市场的应用

本文对事件研究法在证券市场上的应用进行了综合讨论 ,采用模拟抽样的方法对广泛采用的 3种基本模型结合中国证券的交易数据进行了经验比较 ,结果显示了市场模型的局限性以及均值调整模型在中国市场上的某些优势。     

Endogenous vs. exogenous comparative advantage and economies of specialization vs. economies of scale

This paper draws the distinctions between the concepts of endogenous and exogenous comparative advantages and between the concepts of economies of specialization and scale. A comparison between the equilibrium model endogenizing the degree of specialization and endogenous comparative advantages, neoclassical trade model with exogenous comparative advantages, and an extended Dixit-Stiglitz model with a tradeoff between economies of scale and transaction costs is used to explore the equilibrium implications of the distinctions.     

A geometric approach to the price of anarchy in nonatomic congestion games

We present a short, geometric proof for the price-of-anarchy results that have recently been established in a series of papers on selfish routing in multicommodity flow networks and on nonatomic congestion games. This novel proof also facilitates two new types of theoretical results: On the one hand, we give pseudo-approximation results that depend on the class of allowable cost functions. On the other hand, we derive stronger bounds on the inefficiency of equilibria for situations in which the equilibrium costs are within reasonable limits of the fixed costs. These tighter bounds help to explain empirical observations in vehicular traffic networks. Our analysis holds in the more general context of nonatomic congestion games, which provide the framework in which we describe this work.     

Recent approaches to estimating Engel curves

Classical approaches of estimating cross-section Engel curves are based on parametric models. However, misspecification of a parametric model implies that information of structural nature might be masked. An alternative avoiding problems related to predetermined functional relations is the nonparametric approach. This paper surveys recent advances of nonparametric statistics in their relevance to estimating cross-section Engel curves.     

Common Currencies vs. Monetary Independence

We study the optimal monetary policy in a two-country open-economy model under two monetary arrangements: (a) multiple currencies controlled by independent policy makers; (b) common currencies with a centralized policy maker.
Our findings suggest that: (i) monetary policy competition leads to higher long-term inflation and interest rates with large welfare losses; (ii) the inflation bias and the consequent losses are larger when countries are unable to commit to future policies; (iii) the welfare losses from higher long-term inflation dominates the welfare costs of losing the ability to react optimally to shocks.     

Non-cooperative vs. Minimum-Rate Commodity Taxation

This paper demonstrates, within a simple two-country model of commodity taxation and cross-border shopping, that the tax revenue (welfare) effects of a minimum tax requirement depend crucially on the character of the initial non-cooperative tax equilibrium, i.e. whether it is Nash or Stackelberg.     

Sequential vs. single-round uniform-price auctions

We study sequential and single-round uniform-price auctions with affiliated values. We derive symmetric equilibrium for the auction in which k₁ objects are sold in the first round and k₂ in the second round, with and without revelation of the first-round winning bids. We demonstrate that auctioning objects in sequence generates a lowballing effect that reduces the first-round price. Total revenue is greater in a single-round, uniform auction for k=k₁+k₂ objects than in a sequential uniform auction with no bid announcement. When the first-round winning bids are announced, we also identify a positive informational effect on the second-round price. Total expected revenue in a sequential uniform auction with winning-bids announcement may be greater or smaller than in a single-round uniform auction, depending on the model's parameters.     

结构调整与需求空间

我国目前的经济增长已经进入了以消费为主导的发展阶段,能否有效地启动消费,扩展需求空间,成为推动新一轮经济增长的决定性因素,目前的消费不足和需求空间萎缩,既有供给结构方面的背景,也有需求结构方面的原因,要从实际出发,加大结构调整的力度,实现经济结构的升级和优化,为国民经济的发展创造需求空间。     

人口规模与公共支出

公共支出受很多因素的影响,人口规模是其中较重要的因素之一,人口规模不仅影响公共支出总额,还影响公共支出结构即人口规模影响转移支出与购买支出的程度不一样,本从1998年各省的公共支出,转移支出,购买支出和人口规模入手,分析了它们相互之间的相关性和人口规模与其他三之间的线性关系。     

Trading Taxes vs. Paying Taxes to Value and Finance Public Environmental Goods

The potential sensitivity of environmentalresource valuation to payment vehicles is ofinterest to researchers and decision-makersinvolved in estimating and applying thesenumbers. A conceptual model is developed whichprovides insight into how the different paymentvehicles of a special tax and a taxreallocation affects the willingness to pay(WTP) for environmental goods. Hypothesistesting using contingent valuation datasuggests WTP with a tax reallocation is higherthan WTP with a special tax for ground waterquality protection in Georgia and Maine, USA.Technical measurement and welfare analysisimplications and limitations of valuing andfinancing public environmental goods using taxrealloactions are discussed.     

Genetic engineering in agriculture: New approaches for risk management through sustainability reporting

Genetically modified crops and foodstuff have been highly controversial for environmental, health, and ethical reasons. The controversies have been worldwide, but most prominent in the European Union, for reasons that include distrust of the regulatory authorities, scientists and technocratic decision making. An informal moratorium in the EU came recently to an end, without solving the underlying problems. In response to the criticisms, the European governments have attempted to improve the risk assessment methods and their scientific basis, and to tailor public policies to the growing demand for transparency, accountability, and public participation.This paper proposes a novel approach to including the public in evaluating the impacts of food and agricultural biotechnology and present and future applications modeled after the growing practice of sustainability reporting by companies. The most visible among those, Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), when implemented properly, includes a wide range of stakeholders, including the financial institutions, companies, NGOs and the civil society, in an interactive multi-stakeholder discourse and collaboration. The reporting exercise would open the discussion about the R&D around new GMO products, and could mitigate potential adverse effects in an early stage (Constructive Technology Assessment). We specifically propose initiating a broadly based societal initiative aimed at developing of a new sectoral supplement of GRI Guidelines, specifically designed for the food and agricultural biotechnology sector.This approach can be conceptualized as experimentation on a small scale with a multitude of stakeholders involved (Bounded Socio-Technical Experiment or BSTE) which is an effective venue for higher-order learning among participants. Sustainability reports and BSTEs have been so far applied in limited cases, none of which included highly controversial technologies such as biotechnology; they need further elaboration and testing to become possibly highly effective concepts and tools for mitigating conflicts on the societal implications of emerging technologies, and to lead to better public policies and greater social trust.     

Comparing approaches to valuing sectoral net investments

In the literature of comprehensive national accounts, national net investments are used to indicate dynamic welfare improvement in an economy. A well-known approach associates national net investments with the shadow value of change in stock of capital assets in an economy. Following this capital stock approach, sectoral net investments can be defined as the shadow value of change in stock of capital assets owned by a sector in an economy. An alternative approach is based on future commodity flows to a sector. This commodity flow approach associates sectoral net investments with the present value of changes in future commodity flows to a sector. In the present paper, I compare these two approaches and prove that they coincide with each other only if the future commodity flows to the sector can be attributed to current stock of capital assets in the sector alone. In empirical studies, commodity flow approach can be a better alternative if the purpose is to estimate the contributions to national net investments of a recipient of future cash flows.