Marcos López de Prado: Advances in financial machine learning

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management -     

Lógica difusa y el riesgo financiero. Una propuesta de clasificación de riesgo financiero al sector cooperativo

Apply fuzzy logic in financial indicators is a proposal not widespread in the accounting field. This methodology allows us to observe the results of financial ratios with a broader perspective, showing not completely true nor completely false results, because they can take an indeterminate truth value within a set of values, applying the theory of fuzzy logic. The aim of this paper is to present the reader with the application of fuzzy logic in indicators of financial risk, using ratios of the cooperatives segment each Ecuador, and thus validate the level of relevance that has this indicator to compared with the standard meta model and CAMEL ratings. To apply these theory linguistic variables were used, which were valued at scales ranges from 0 to 1. It is determined that the diffuse methodologist applied to financial risks presented a higher level of membership to good credit rating by ensuring a level of low risk and very good solvency. However, in periods of low economic activity it would stagnate at this level for the increased risk.     

Empleo manufacturero en la Región Centro de México. Una estimación por gran división

In this paper, the production performance by great division and its effects on formal job generation in the central region of Mexico is analyzed. The more dynamic manufacturing divisions are identified and with the estimation of an employment function with panel data for each of the nine manufacturing great divisions, it is found that divisions I. Food, beverages and tobacco, II. Textiles, clothing and leather industry, III. Wood and wood products and IX Other manufacturing industries exhibit a high income elasticity of employment (0.716, 1.035, 0.781 and 0.94) and that the more technical divisions, with greater innovation processes and highly exporting divisions such as division VIII. Metal products, machinery and equipment show a lower elasticity.     

Evolución de la capacidad tecnológica en México. Aplicación del análisis estadístico multivariante de cluster

This paper conducts an analysis on the existence of state clusters related with technological capabilities in Mexico. An empirical study was conducted using the technique of multivariate statistical cluster analysis, based on the set of indicators proposed by Cepal (2007), collecting data from various public sources country for 2006 and 2012 in order to study the time evolution of such clusters, trying to see what states have been moving to a cluster located in positions more which have advanced and retreated over the period. The results show the existence of 7 groups of states characterized by different technological capabilities, plus states are identified in decline and progress, both in terms of absorptive capacity and innovation, and in relation to the technological infrastructure capabilities.     

Dinámica de la inversión extranjera directa en los estados de México: un análisis de cadenas de Markov espaciales

The aim of this investigation is to analyze the evolution of the spatio-temporal distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) across Mexican states. The literature that analizes foreign direct invesment in Mexico is numerous and diverse; however, it is argued that the analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of FDI conditioned to spatial interaction effects in Mexico, is still absence. In this sense, by applying the spatial Markov chain approach as proposed by Rey (2001), we found a divergence process in the FDI inflows among mexican states that seems to get stronger over time. In particular, during the period from 2006 to 2013, the process of divergence towards higher-FDI-inflows quantiles occurs among states spatially associated with neighbors in lower-FDI-quantiles.     

Administración del riesgo crediticio al menudeo en México: una mejora econométrica en la selección de variables y cambios en sus características

The early prediction of bad debtors in revolving loans in Mexico is a relevant current issue. The proposed econometric model of behavioral scoring considers the changes in the characteristics of consolidated clients and produces better results than those obtained with methodology used by the CNBV on provisions. The obtained results show the possibility of replacing the current model, minimizing the expected loss and increasing the ROA of Mexican financial institutions in 2.20% complying the methodology and statistical testing criteria according to the Unique Banking Dispositions and the guidelines of Basel II on credit risk.     

Author’s Reply: Principal Applications of Bayesian Methods in Actuarial Science: A Perspective - Discussion by Marjorie A. Rosenberg; M. Mendoza; Francisco José VáZquez-Polo; James C. Hickman; Donald A. Jones; Enrique de Alba; David P. M. Scollnik

Abstract

This paper considers the pricing of equity-indexed annuities (EIAs). Traditionally, the values of the guarantees embedded in these contracts are priced by modeling the underlying index fund while keeping the interest rates constant. The assumption of constant interest rates becomes unrealistic in pricing and hedging the EIAs since the embedded guarantees are often of much longer maturity. To solve this problem, the authors propose an economic model that has the flexibility of modeling the underlying index fund as well as the interest rates. Some popular EIAs are illustrated to assess the implication of the proposed model.