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Leonardo Martinez 《Journal of Economic Theory》2009,144(3):1166-1186
We study how the proximity of elections affects policy choices in a model in which policymakers want to improve their reputation to increase their reelection chances. Policymakers' equilibrium decisions depend on both their reputation and the proximity of the next election. Typically, incentives to influence election results are stronger closer to the election (for a given reputation level), as argued in the political cycles literature, and these political cycles are less important when the policymaker's reputation is better. Our analysis sheds light on other agency relationships in which part of the compensation is decided upon infrequently. 相似文献
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James A. Robinson 《European Economic Review》2009,53(7):786-798
Why do soft budget constraints exist and persist? In this paper we argue that the prevalence of soft budget constraints can be best explained by the political desirability of softness. We develop an infinite horizon political economy model where neither democratic nor autocratic politicians can commit to policies that are not ex post optimal. We show that because of the dynamic commitment problem inherent in the soft budget constraint, politicians can in essence commit to make transfers to entrepreneurs which otherwise they would not be able to do. This encourages such entrepreneurs to support them politically. Though the soft budget constraint may induce economic inefficiency, it may be politically rational because it influences the probability of political survival. In consequence, even when information is complete, politicians may fund bad projects which they anticipate they will have to bail out in the future. We show that, maybe somewhat surprisingly, dictators who are less likely to lose power, are more likely to use the soft budget constraint as a strategy to gain political support. 相似文献
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An axiomatic theory of political representation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Christopher P. Chambers 《Journal of Economic Theory》2009,144(1):375-554
We discuss the theory of gerrymandering-proof voting rules. Our approach is axiomatic. We show that, for votes over a binary set of alternatives, any rule that is unanimous, anonymous, and gerrymandering-proof must decide a social outcome as a function of the proportions of agents voting for each alternative, and must either be independent of this proportion, or be in one-to-one correspondence with the proportions. In an extended model in which the outcome of a vote at the district level can be a composition of a governing body (with two possible parties), we discuss the quasi-proportional rules (characterized by unanimity, anonymity, gerrymandering-proofness, strict monotonicity, and continuity). We show that we can always (pointwise) approximate a single-member district quota rule with a quasi-proportional rule. We also discuss a more general environment, where there may be more than two parties. 相似文献
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《Journal of development economics》2007,82(1):234-244
Several papers argue that debt crises can be the result of self-fulfilling expectations that no one will lend to a country, triggering default and rationalizing the refusal to lend. I show these coordination failures can be eliminated by a combination of state-contingent securities and a mechanism that allows investors to promise to lend only if enough other investors do so as well. This suggests that runs on the debt of a single borrower (such as the government) can be eliminated and that self-fulfilling features are more plausible when externalities among many decentralized borrowers allow for economy-wide debt runs to occur. 相似文献
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Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We develop a model in which government guarantees to banks’ foreign creditors are a root cause of self-fulfilling twin banking-currency crises. Absent guarantees, such crises are not possible. In the presence of guarantees banks borrow foreign currency, lend domestic currency and do not hedge the resulting exchange rate risk. With guarantees, banks will also renege on their foreign debts and declare bankruptcy when a devaluation occurs. We assume that the government is unable or unwilling to fully fund the resulting bailout via an explicit fiscal reform. These features of our model imply that government guarantees lead to self-fulfilling banking-currency crises. 相似文献
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Although many of the worst performing countries over the post-World War II period were autocracies, many of the best were likewise autocratic. At the same time, no long-lived autocracy currently is rich whereas every long-lived democracy is. This paper proposes a theory to account for these observations that rests on the ideas that autocrats are heterogeneous and that elites experience lower land rents with industrialization. In a model calibrated to Britain's development, we show that elites democratize society only after the economy has accumulated enough wealth, and that the democratization date depends importantly on the history of rulers and distribution of land. 相似文献
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This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations theory of the term structure using the Livingston survey data on price inflation forecasts. For a variety of sample periods, the paper presents evidence that the data are consistent with the theory. Since inflation forecasts, unlike interest rates, are not linked to specific underlying financial assets, the relationship between longterm and short-term inflation forecasts should not embody risk premia. This paper's findings therefore lend support to the view that a time-varying risk premium is needed to explain the observed term structure of interest rates. 相似文献
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David Mercer 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1997,55(2):145-154
The aggregated expectations hypothesis, described here in full for the first time, offers a new way of examining likely future outcomes based upon the most important contributor—expectations—to the individual decisions which aggregate to create these final macro-outcomes. It also offers more powerful actors, especially governments, a new tool for influencing some of those future outcomes. The core concept is that the future outcome of an issue, economic or political, will be largely determined by the expectations of those in the population affected whose aggregated individual decisions will shape that outcome. 相似文献
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Paul A. Johnson 《Applied economics》2013,45(9):1239-1247
This paper tackles the issue of the procyclicality of the real wage. We present a dynamic relationship between real wages and employment consistent with the long-run stationary equilibrium using a cointegrated VAR model. We find that wages are anticyclical and that a negative relationship between real wages and employment is necessary to achieve an economically identifiable stationary long run solution. The contentiousness of the topic does not appear so important once we recall some measurement issues and economic features of the Italian labour market. 相似文献
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在新世纪,政治理论教学作为院校思想政治建设的重要环节,缺乏吸引力,教学效果不佳。游戏式教学法能够营造出良好的教学氛围,激发学生强烈的求知欲和兴趣。在政治理论课上采用游戏教学法,可以提高政治理论课的教学质量,增强教学效果。 相似文献
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Takeshi Nakano 《European Journal of the History of Economic Thought》2013,20(1):33-52
The author explores Hegel's theory of economic nationalism in the Philosophy of Right. In that work, Hegel incorporates economics within a systematic theory of the nation-state. Hegel argues that both capitalism and nationalism are the products of the state, which emancipates human capacities by founding and securing individual rights. Capitalism, however, is an inherently self contradictory social phenomenon to which Hegel responds in a sophisticated manner, one eschewing those economic ideologies which subsequently dominated modern economic thought. Moreover, his response differs fundamentally from other supposed defenders of economic nationalism. Unlike the rationalist Fichte, that other great German defender of a national economics, Hegel paves the way to a scientific understanding of the relationship between the modern economy and the nation-state, in other words, a theory of economic nationalism. 相似文献
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We develop a model in which a strategic complementarity in saving decisions arises due to a minimum investment requirement and financial market imperfection. We explore the role of self-fulling beliefs in determining the long run dynamics. The model exhibits a wide range of dynamic phenomena such as a poverty trap, a big push and a sunspot equilibrium, depending on the level of financial market imperfection. They account for excessive volatility and a sudden change in the saving rate and its macroeconomic consequences without any shocks to fundamentals. 相似文献
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We look at two countries that have independent fundamentals, but share the same group of investors. Each country might face a self-fulfilling crisis: Agents withdrawing their investments fearing that others will. A crisis in one country reduces agents’ wealth. This makes them more averse to the strategic risk associated with the unknown behavior of other agents in the second country, increasing their incentive to withdraw their investments. Consequently, the probability of a crisis there increases. This generates a positive correlation between the returns in the two countries. Since diversification affects returns in our model, its welfare implications are non-trivial. 相似文献
15.
M B Takach 《Nursing economic$》1989,7(5):273-275
As a relatively new Legislative Assistant, this author describes how the political process worked in one legislative effort.Tips for grassroots involvement are offered. 相似文献
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新政治经济学是政治学与经济学整合研究的产物,其研究方法与理论拓展了传统政治学和经济学的研究范围,但也存在一定的局限性。作为一门新兴交叉学科,它为正处于转型时期的中国改革实践提供了可资批判地借鉴的理论与方法,值得深入研究与探讨。 相似文献
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住房的政治经济学是欧美近年刚刚出现的研究领域,主要以比较政治经济学和国际政治经济学,特别是日常政治经济学作为理论基础,重新对住房金融制度、住房政策体系和住房市场进行审视。住房政治经济学为分析住房政策和当前的金融危机提供了不同的视角,并得出新的结论。这些视角和结论对中国发展和社会改革具有启示意义。本文按照主要议题、运行机制和理论基础对住房政治经济学研究进行了解读,并从时代背景、理论建构、逻辑关系和研究视角四个方面对住房政治经济学的发展方向和不足之处进行了剖析。最后讨论了住房政治经济学研究对当前中国的现实启示。 相似文献
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对特色理论的理论自信是在与其他理论相比较过程中培育的,是源于实践的反复检验得以确立的。思政课教师的理论自信包含对马克思主义的理论自信和对自己业务能力、理论功底的自信。思政课教师应做到信仰坚定、理论功底扎实。坚持理论自信,就是要在课堂上敢于坚持中国特色社会主义理论,旗帜鲜明地坚守和捍卫马克思主义,从而增强学生对坚持走中国特色社会主义道路的信心,达到正能量的释放、传递和扩大,展示思政课的理论魅力。 相似文献