浅议延长退休年龄政策

我国于20世纪末进入了人口老龄化时代。为了应对老龄化带来的劳动力供给不足、社会老年赡养比率过高、养老金支出压力过大等问题,许多国家采取了延长退休年龄的政策。在此情况下,我国是否需要同样采取调整退休年龄的政策?该议题已经引起了国内学者的广泛关注与讨论。延长退休年龄是可以有效缓解人口老龄化压力的方法之一,但其利弊皆有,需做充分探讨。     

城镇居民延长退休年龄意愿与影响因素的调查研究——基于浙江省5座城市的调研

当前,人口老龄化压力逐年增加,养老保险隐性债务问题也逐渐突出.延长法定退休年龄以缓解养老统筹账户资金缺口不失为目前可见的有效途径.本文通过对浙江省5座城市490份城镇居民的问卷调查,研究了城镇居民对基本养老保险制度的认知程度、延长法定退休年龄的意愿及其影响因素,并据此提出了制定延长法定退休年龄的相关政策建议.     

退休年龄选择机理：基于人力资本与社会保障的视角

近年来,延长退休年龄问题日益成为社会和学界的热点话题。本文从我国人口老龄化社会的到来并渐近达到峰值谈起,指出人口老龄化趋势、人均寿命的延长以及我国人口平均人力资本存量的不断增加要求我们实行延迟退休制度。     

美国延迟退休激励机制分析——兼论对中国延迟退休年龄改革的启示

美国社会保障法案的颁布标志着现代社会保障制度的建立。在人口老龄化的背景下,美国对法定退休年龄和养老金领取年龄进行改革,逐步废除法定退休年龄,提高正常退休年龄,同时对养老保险制度中的退休收入核查制度进行调整,建立延迟退休补助制度,由此增强延迟退休对老年劳动力延迟退休的激励。美国废除法定退休年龄和延迟正常退休年龄的改革对中国延迟退休年龄改革提供了有益借鉴。     

开发利用高技能老年人才资源的路径研究——以延长退休年龄为视角

人口老龄化的加速发展、高技能人才的年龄结构偏高及高技能人才培养的特殊性等原因造成了我国劳动力市场上高技能人才结构性短缺的现状。以延长退休年龄为视角,引用灰色系统、队列分析等原理,结合2010年第六次人口普查、2001～2012历年中国统计年鉴、2001～2011历年中国劳动力市场信息网监测中心提供的部分城市公共就业服务机构市场供求等相关数据,分析小步渐进式延长高技能老年人才退休年龄的必要性和可行性,对缓解目前我国劳动力市场上存在的高技能人才短缺的结构性矛盾,开发利用高技能老年人才资源有重要的理论和现实意义。     

延长退休年龄还是增加缴费基数： 养老金改革的路径选择与政策效应*

随着人口老龄化加剧和预期寿命延长,我国养老保险体系面临预期养老金支付严重不足的挑战。本文基于总量视角建立基础养老金收支模型,利用中国人口预测数据,分别测算基于实施“延长退休年龄”和“增加缴费基数”两种不同的改革策略未来30年中国基础养老金的收支余额,并评估政策效果。研究结果表明,“推迟退休年龄”对缓解养老金基金支付压力作用明显,但存在增加就业压力等负外部性。“增加缴费人数”亦可以缓解养老金支付困境,且不存在负外部性,但推行时间缓慢,或将产生新的公共财政压力。     

退休年龄对养老保险平衡的影响分析

退休年龄是影响养老金平衡的重要因素。实际生活中退休年龄是要发生变化的。本文的目的是分析人口老龄化时如何变动退休年龄以保持养老保险收支平衡。     

人口老龄化背景下劳动力供给对中国经济增长的影响

目前中国已经进入老龄化社会。人口老龄化可能导致劳动年龄人口数量减少以及劳动年龄人口结构老化,这必然会对中国经济增长产生影响。因此,要充分挖掘现有的劳动力资源,增加劳动力供给;根据劳动力供给数量的变化趋势,加速产业结构调整和技术创新;加大人力资本投资的力度,提高劳动者的素质;适当延长退休年龄,以缓解劳动力供给不足趋势对经济增长的不利影响。     

浅析延迟退休可能遇到的问题和相应的解决办法

近几年来,随着中国人口老龄化进程的不断加速,社会保险基金支出快速增加.社会养老保险的"空账"问题引发了社会的广泛关注,人们对延迟退休政策的关注度空前高涨.基于我国目前法定退休年龄存在的退休年龄偏低、退休年龄存在人群差异等问题,我们对延迟退休政策过程中可能遇到的问题进行了分析并提出应对问题的解决办法.     

日本延迟退休政策改革对中国的启示

伴随着经济与社会的飞速发展,中国的老龄化问题也日益严重,为了解决这一问题,延迟退休年龄势在必行.本文梳理了 日本退休政策改革的发展脉络与具体措施,提出中国可以借鉴日本的制度改革,阶段性地提升退休年龄,建立具有激励作用的弹性养老金制度和建立非盈利性的老年职业介绍所,以应对人口老龄化问题.     

中国人口老化、退休金缺口与农村养老保障

该文对中国人口老龄化的主要特征与养老金缺口的严重问题进行了概要的分析,并讨论建立农村储备积累式养老保障制度的必要性、紧迫性与可行性.该文认为,我们必须充分利用今后20年左右劳力资源丰富、少儿抚养比下降、老年抚养比仍然较低的"人口红利"机遇,大力发挥我国在劳力密集型产业方面的比较优势,努力建立农村社会养老保障体系,以应对2025年之后人口老龄化高峰期到来的严峻挑战以及扭转出生性别比与女婴死亡率大幅超常偏高的危险倾向.     

Can I live with you after I retire? Retirement,old age support and internal migration in a developing country

This study provides causal evidence on the impact of retirement on internal migration in a developing country. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, combined with a nationally representative sample of 228,855 older Chinese adults, we find that retirement leads to an increase in the probability of being a migrant by 12.9 percentage points (an 80% increase in migration). Approximately 38% of the total migration effects can be attributed to intertemporal shifts. The impact is more pronounced for the lower-educated, those who have restricted access to health insurance and pension and those who come from origins with high accommodation costs. Relying on old age support from adult children in migration is a likely mechanism. Lifting migration restrictions and improving government-provided benefits for retirees could be helpful to cope with population aging in a developing country.     

人口红利转变、老龄化与提高退休年龄

中国人口生育水平的下降和平均预期寿命的延长,导致原来的人口红利出现了转变的趋势,也造成了老龄化负担的加剧。在这种情况下,实行提高退休年龄的政策具备了某种可能性,因为人口红利的逐渐消失和劳动力供求的逆转可能成为提高退休年龄的推力,而养老金制度的老龄化危机则成为提高退休年龄的拉力。在现实条件下,考虑这一政策对城镇就业的冲击以及劳动力异质性的影响,应该实施渐进缓慢、逐步提高退休年龄的政策。     

人口预期寿命与退休年龄

人口寿命的不断延长给中国养老事业带来越来越大的压力.文章在两期交叠世代模型的基础上引入退休,在市场完全竞争、充分就业和政府能够控制退休年龄的假设前提下,在个人、企业和政府的行为以及资本市场均衡的层面构建了一般均衡的模型框架,从社会计划者的角度发现福利最大化下的人口预期寿命变化和退休年龄是正相关的,并呈现出负反比例的函数形式.文章还基于参数估计和赋值模拟的方法,求解出了人口预期寿命与退休年龄的调整算法,并以此给出了两者间的调整对照表.根据计算的结果和预期的寿命,建议2030年前逐步将退休年龄延长至65岁.最后通过检验发现,如果不存在人口预期寿命和退休年龄之间的调整机制,在保持养老金收支平衡的前提下,预期寿命的延长将减少养老金的发放,并可能带来社会福利的损失.因此,在中国人口预期寿命不断延长的背景下,建议政府考虑建立人口预期寿命和退休年龄的调整机制.     

英国应对人口老龄化的经验及对中国的启示

英国是世界上第一个工业化国家，也是人口老龄化国家。英国在应对人口老龄化方面积累了较为丰富的经验，采取了推迟退休、倡导积极老龄化、利用国际移民、推行以促进就业为导向的社会政策和大力开发人力资源等措施，较为成功地应对了老龄化时代的社会经济问题。但英国的养老金面临较大的财政风险，国际移民面临本土适应问题。中国可以参考英国分权管理、责任下放的政府治理体制，建立有梯度的养老金制度，建立广覆盖、低费用、以社区卫生服务为主的全民基本医疗保障制度。     

Endogenous retirement and public pension system reform in Spain

Population aging has spurred developed countries around the world to reform their PAYG pension systems. In particular, delaying legal retirement ages and reducing the generosity of pension benefits have been widely implemented changes. This paper assesses the potential success of these policies in the case of the Spanish economy, and compares them with the results obtained by the (rather modest) reforms already implemented in 1997 and 2001. This evaluation is accomplished in a heterogeneous-agent dynamic general equilibrium model where individuals can adjust their retirement ages in response to changes to the pension rules. We check the ability of the model to reproduce the basic stylized facts of retirement behavior (particularly the pattern of early retirement induced by minimum pensions). The model is then used to explore the impact of pension reforms. We find that already implemented changes actually increase the implicit liabilities of the system. In contrast, delaying the legal retirement age and extending the averaging period in the pension formula to cover most of the individual's life-cycle can reduce the implicit liabilities substantially. These findings reveal the failure of the Spanish political system to distribute the costs of population aging more evenly across the generations.     

Reinforcing the Link Between Contributions and Pensions: The Effect of the Population Aging

In this paper, we analyze a majority voting process on the earnings-related part of pension benefits in a Social Security system with flexible retirement. We show that the aging of the population may make it easier to implement one of the proposed reforms to achieve a delay in the average retirement age of workers, to reinforce the link between contributions and pensions.     

Who cares about the day after tomorrow? Pension issues when households are myopic or time inconsistent

Pension economics has traditionally guided pension policy with the help of formal models based on individuals who think in a life‐cycle context with perfect foresight, full information, and in a time‐consistent manner. Associated macro models were mostly based on a single country. This paper sheds light on several aspects of pension economics when these assumptions do not hold using—to our knowledge—the first multi‐country model of procrastinating households. Our focus is on the interaction between the share of procrastinators in a country, the speed and extent of population aging, and the size of an existing PAYG‐DB pension system. Starting from the insight that procrastination reduces the volume of savings, we focus on three questions that are particularly relevant for the quickly aging Asian economies: What are the consequences for the balance between pay‐as‐you‐go and fully funded pension systems? Where will retirement savings be invested in a globally linked world with very different pension systems and demographics? How large are global spillover effects of pension reforms in one region for the other regions in the world?     

Economic Retirement Age and Lifelong Learning: A Theoretical Model With Heterogeneous Labor,Biased Technical Change and International Sourcing

The employability of an aging population in a world of continuous and biased technical change is top of the political agenda. Due to endogenous human capital depreciation the effective retirement age is often below statutory retirement age resulting in permanent non‐employability of older workers. We analyze this phenomenon in a putty‐putty human capital vintage model and focus on education and the speed of human capital depreciation. Introducing a two‐stage education system with initial schooling and lifelong learning, not even lifelong learning turns out to be capable of aligning economic and statutory retirement. However, well‐designed education programs will keep more workers in highly productive activities at the end of their working life, and hence will substitute for simple social transfers, or for an early switch towards very low paid jobs.