通胀目标制：功能机理、政策绩效与启示

通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代初西方发达国家兴起的一种货币政策框架。文章从理论阐释了通胀目标制的功能机理,运用48个国家的相关数据对通胀目标制的绩效进行了实证分析,实证结果表明:通货膨胀目标制有助于锚住通胀预期,降低通货膨胀,稳定产出,是一种比较成功的货币政策框架。这一结论对货币政策框架需要调整的我国具有一定的政策启示。     

货币错配与通货膨胀目标制的不可行性：针对我国现实

现阶段我国正面临人民币汇率稳定与物价稳定的"两难冲突",国内外一些学者主张我国应该采用通货膨胀目标制。从货币错配的角度探讨通货膨胀目标制在我国的可行性表明,由于存在较严重的货币错配及特殊的国情,现阶段我国尚不具备实行通货膨胀目标制的条件,短期内,通货膨胀目标制在我国并不具有可行性,货币政策适合以货币供应数量和价格作为混合使用的政策调控目标。     

对我国货币政策有效性的分析

文章对在开放条件下我国货币政策传导机制存在的各种约束进行了阐述，并实证分析了我国近年来的货币政策效果。实证结果表明，我国货币供应量的增长不能解释近年来的GDP的增长，我国可以实施通货膨胀目标制以替代目前状况。     

论我国货币政策中介目标的适用性及其选择

众所周知,货币政策中介目标是货币政策框架的一个重要环节。中介目标之所以重要,主要有两点原因,一是货币政策作用机理具有滞后性与动态性;二是为避免货币政策制订者的机会主义行为,需要货币当局设定一个名义锚。从1996年以来,我国就正式将货币M1的供应量作为货币政策中介目标,     

货币政策可信度与通货膨胀目标制的关系分析

文章论述了货币当局的政策可信度对真实经济波动冲击的辩证关系.认为,在货币当局选择的是以货币总量等而非通货膨胀作为中介目标的非通货膨胀目标制条件下,公众对其货币政策可信度必将下降,真实经济受其拖累,加大产出缺口的波动.要破除这个困境,需要改变原先货币当局自身的多目标、易变动的政策策略.确立较低的通货膨胀目标有助于提高公众对货币政策信任度,使经济朝着目标区方向发展.     

论我国货币政策中介目标的运用性及其选择

众昕周知，货币政策中介目标是货币政策框架的一个重要环节。中介目标之昕以重要，主要有两点原因，一是货币政策作用机理具有滞后性动态性；二是为避免货币政策制订者的机会主义行为，需要货币当局设定一个名义锚。从1996年以来，我国就正式将货币M1的供应量作为货币政策中介目标，同时将M0和M2的供应量作为观寮目标。但有关货币供应量是否满足中介目标的“可控性、可测性、相关性”标准，     

我国向通货膨胀目标制过渡的政策建议

通货膨胀目标制作为我国缓解通货膨胀问题的有效手段，为稳定我国金融市场发挥着至关重要的作用。现阶段，我国尚未完全实行通货膨胀目标制，究其原因在于我国现行金融市场中还存在着一系列制约实行通货膨胀目标制的因素，即货币币值、中央银行的独立性、价格指数、货币政策工具以及金融体系。基于此本文提出了相关政策建议用来抑制通货膨胀。     

浅谈货币政策经济发展

20世纪90年代以来，西方发达国家普遍通过货币政策透明度来严禁抑制信代的欺诈行为，防止内部员工职能便利行为。在通货膨胀目标制下，国家央行更是从目标、宏观经济数据、经济模型、操作过程等多方面实现了透明化，建立了完整的货币政策透明度体系，并且在实践中取得了令人满意的效果。然而，大多数货币体制都是非完全透明和可信的。随着通货膨胀目标制的可定通货膨胀目标制的实施使透明度建设具备了完整的体系，则其目标透明度自然是整个透明度体系不可缺少的组成部分，并发挥着以下几点重要的作用。     

当前固定汇率制与货币总量目标制的内在冲突

本文通过比较从计算得出的两种不同汇率数据与人民币名义汇率,发现中国当前实行的固定汇率制度与货币总量目标制存在着内在冲突,即固定汇率下的货币供应量的内生性与货币总量目标制下货币供应量的外生性的矛盾。正是这种货币供应量的“内生性”与“外生性”的冲突,不仅导致中央银行在东亚金融危机后货币政策效果不明显,也导致人民币汇率存在着变动的压力,以至于中央银行为同时实现内外均衡而不得不最终放弃这种多目标制的货币政策,实行单一目标制。     

西方国家货币政策中介目标的历史演进及其启示

西方国家的货币政策中介目标经历了从贷款量、利率到货币供应量再到目前以利率为主要调节目标,多信息变量并重的格局。当前流行的通货膨胀目标制事实上是将传统中介目标功能分离、分散于多个变量,而又以利率为主要中间调节目标的货币政策框架。     

Controlling inflation in transition economies: The relevance of central bank independence and the right nominal anchor

Controlling inflation is a central problem in transition economies. This paper asks under what conditions or even whether central bank independence helps in this task. The conclusion shows that merely imposing legal independence on the central bank may be ineffective or even counterproductive. It is necessary to make a monetary strategy and the responsibilities and restrictions of central bank policy transparent to the public. In addition, it is important that the right nominal anchor is selected—one that is, or is believed to be, effective and sustainable. Both monetary targeting and inflation targeting are assumed to be unsuitable for most transition countries. Instead, some kind of dynamic exchange rate targeting appears to be the most reasonable choice.     

INFLATION TARGETING AND THE FISHER EFFECT IN SOUTH AFRICA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

The paper analyses the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates during a period of inflation targeting in South Africa, i.e. from 2000 to 2005. Specifically, it investigates the Fisher hypothesis that nominal interest rates move one‐to‐one with expected inflation, leaving the real interest rate unaffected. The analysis distinguishes between a short‐run Fisher effect and a long‐run Fisher effect. Using cointegration and error correction models (for monthly data for the period April 2000 to July 2005), it was found that the short‐run Fisher hypothesis did not hold during the relevant period under the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa. This is attributed to a combination of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) control over short‐term interest rates and the effects of the monetary transmission mechanism. The long‐run Fisher hypothesis could not be confirmed in its strictest form: while changes in inflation expectations move in the same direction as the nominal long‐term interest rate. This suggests that monetary policy has an influence on the real long‐term interest rate, which has positive implications for general economic activity, thus confirming the credibility of the inflation targeting framework.     

Targeting Rules for an Open Economy

This study extends the formal analysis of inflation targeting monetary policy using the standard New Keynesian framework to a small open economy by adding inflation and output persistence as well as a direct exchange rate channel to domestic inflation. We find that output variability is lower under CPI inflation targeting than under domestic inflation targeting. However, CPI inflation results in higher variability of the real exchange rate than domestic inflation targeting. Output and the nominal interest rate are less volatile under flexible inflation targeting than under almost-strict inflation targeting. We also find that almost-strict domestic inflation targeting cannot completely insulate domestic inflation from foreign shocks due to a direct exchange rate channel. The model is calibrated to Canadian data.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through,Unemployment and Optimal Implementable Monetary Policy Rule for Emerging Economies

Abstract

This paper develops a small open economy model with nominal rigidities and search-matching frictions to study the implications of exchange rate pass-through for monetary policy in emerging countries. I find that, with complete exchange rate pass-through, the optimal policy rule features unemployment targeting as well as inflation targeting. However, the welfare gain from responding to unemployment fluctuations diminishes as the rate of exchange rate pass-through to import prices decreases. With low exchange rate pass-through, the optimal monetary policy is strict inflation targeting.     

DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN GHANA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the factors accounting for inflation dynamics in Ghana using the bounds test and other econometric approaches. We find that real output, nominal exchange rate, broad money supply, nominal interest rate and fiscal deficit play a dominant role in the inflationary process in Ghana. To the extent that output growth by far has the strongest impact on inflation, targeting supply‐side constraints will help moderate price inflation. The paper concludes that inflation in Ghana is explained by a combination of structural and monetary factors consistent with prior studies.     

Price Stability and the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates

We revisit Friedman’s case for flexible exchange rates in a small open economy with several distortions and rigidities and a variety of domestic and external shocks. We find that, for external shocks, the flexible exchange rate regime outperforms the fixed regime independent of the source of domestic nominal rigidities provided that the monetary authorities pursue a policy of strict inflation targeting. For domestic supply shocks, a joint policy of a flexible exchange rate and strict inflation targeting fares well when the main source of nominal rigidities is in the domestic goods markets, but not if rigidities arise in the labor markets.     

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Strategies: Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries

In this paper we address the issue whether a switch to inflation targeting can help build monetary policy credibility and can substitute for a track record of low inflation. To this end, we empirically evaluate the success of inflation targeting in Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and investigate to what extent the joint dynamic processes of inflation and nominal interest rates in these three countries have experienced a structural break at the time of the regime switch to inflation targeting. The experience of Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom is matched with the United States, Australia and Germany. We find that the effectiveness of the direct inflation targeting approach to quickly increase low-inflation credibility so far is ambiguous and that this strategy is not clearly superior to intermediate monetary strategies.     

The interest rate–inflation relationship under an inflation targeting regime: The case of Turkey

This paper examines the relationship between nominal interest rates and the expected inflation rate for the Turkish economy between 2002 and 2009, a period when the inflation-targeting regime was implemented as monetary policy. We use the test of cointegrating rank with a trend-break (a method introduced by Inoue, 1999) and we also apply exogeneity tests. Empirical findings indicate that monetary policy rates depend on inflationary expectations; long-term interest rates are affected by monetary policy; and the weak form of the Fisher effect is valid. This evidence implies that monetary policy has actually influenced the real long-term interest rates; the inflation targeting regime pursued by the Central Bank of Turkey is reliable; and hence realized inflation has remained close to its targeted level.     

The case for price level or inflation targeting—What happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?

This paper examines whether price level or inflation targeting would have been appropriate policy choices for Japan during its disinflation and deflation period. We employ Markov switching and structural vector autoregressions, together with structural IS equations, to investigate monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation. We find evidence of regime switching in the mid-1990s in a model including the nominal policy interest rate. When monetary policy shocks are identified by using the McCallum rule for monetary base, a monetary expansion is found to have a statistically significant impact on prices. Moreover, a lower real ex ante interest rate can still stimulate the economy despite the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.