通货膨胀下的货币政策效力分析

最近几个月来,伴随着房价的快速上涨,水、油、电、粮食、蔬菜等日常消费品价格也开始水涨船高,通货膨胀似乎已经悄然而至,我国现行的适度宽松的货币政策在应对通胀压力时究竟效力如何,本文将通过对货币政策工具的效力分析得出相应的结论.     

通货膨胀经济中均衡选择问题研究

本文提供了一个基于遗传算法的世代交叠模型 ,用于研究通货膨胀经济中的均衡选择问题。在宏观经济中 ,经济主体的预期内生地决定了通货膨胀的动态 ,而通货膨胀的动态对经济主体预期的形成又会产生深刻影响。经济主体应用遗传算法来学习正确的预测规则 ,依据预期制定消费决策以解决其效用最大化问题。我们应用该模型 ,分别进行了“实际赤字固定”和“货币增长率固定”的政策模拟实验。实验结果表明 :随着经济主体预期的不断进化 ,模型均波动地收敛于帕累托最优理性预期均衡 ;两种不同的货币政策没有导致通货膨胀变动性出现显著的差异。     

金融非均衡下我国通货膨胀的治理

当前金融非均衡现象在我国经济运行中日益突出,其发展对货币政策最终目标——通货膨胀和金融稳定产生重大影响。文章分析了金融非均衡与通货膨胀相互关系的内在机理,实证分析也表明金融非均衡是通货膨胀的格兰杰原因,最后从信贷、房价、股价三个角度提出降低金融非均衡发展,来降低通货膨胀压力。     

通货膨胀目标错配与管理研究

本文以1979～2010年中国广义价格指标通货膨胀率与居民消费价格指数(CPI)通货膨胀率动态机制特征的显著差异为基础,运用不可观测成分随机波动模型测算和对比不同通货膨胀指标预期时序的动态路径,并应用反事实对比实验方法比较货币政策对不同通货膨胀指标动态特征转变的影响程度。结果显示,由于中国长期以CPI为单一通货膨胀目标,没有将广义价格指标通货膨胀率纳入政策决策的信息集,形成通货膨胀目标错配问题,从而导致近年来广义价格指标通货膨胀率持续走高,而且其波动性呈现显著上升态势。     

人民币名义有效汇率变动对CPI传递效应实证检验——基于通货膨胀环境变化视角

通过将Taylor(2000)交错价格模型融入新开放宏观经济学模型(NOEM)导出实证模型,有效地将通货膨胀环境与汇率对国内价格传递相融合.选取1998年1月-2012年4月的数据对人民币名义有效汇率的消费者价格指数(CPI)传递效应在不同通胀环境下进行测算,在此基础上对传递途径进行了脉冲检验.实证结果表明,人民币名义有效汇率变动的CPI传递的长短期效应均较低且受通胀环境影响较大,1998年初至2002年末的持续低通胀环境阻碍了汇率传递所有渠道是导致传递效率低的原因所在,2003年初至2012年4月的较高通胀环境下汇率传递的货币渠道较进口商品价格渠道冲击显著但作用符号相反.     

通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性分析

本文从央行操作技能、制度保障体系、市场传导机制和宏观经济环境等四个方面对通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性进行了分析。结论表明我国已基本具备实施通货膨胀目标制的前提条件．中央银行应尽快实现由当前货币政策操作框架向通货膨胀目标制的转变。     

2004年通货膨胀趋势与货币政策调控目标值的选择

总结2003年、展望2004年的中国经济，社会上焦点正由经济是热是冷，还是总体正常、局部偏热的争论，逐步转向由分析2004年物价上升趋势来总体分析、把握2004年的经济政策。因此本文重点从2004年的物价走势情况分析入手，同时附带对2004年     

通胀迷局

去年下半年以来,我国消费者物价指数(CPI)持续上升,通货膨胀的幽灵已经侵入了我们的经济生活。无论对政府、企业,还是个人来说,通货膨胀都成为了再也难以回避的问题其实,与CPI冷冰冰的数字比起来,人们对于通货膨胀的理解更多还是出于直观的感受:房价飞升、股市狂飙、肉贵奶涨、粮食价增……人们蓦然     

温和通胀压力下的房地产信贷发展研究

本文首先对当前我国所处的温和通胀情况对房地产信贷业的影响进行了分析,随后提出了一些关于我国房地产信贷业发展的对策,希望能对我国房地产信贷业的发展有所帮助。     

Determinants of households’ inflation expectations in Japan and the United States

Using a VAR model that includes survey data on households’ inflation expectations for Japan and the US, we investigate their determinants and influences on the economy and compare their properties in two countries. Short-term non-recursive restrictions are imposed taking account of simultaneous co-dependence between realized and expected inflation. We find that responding to changes in exogenous prices and to monetary policy shocks, inflation expectations adjust more quickly than does realized inflation. Compared with Japan, the effects of exogenous prices on inflation and inflation expectations in the US are not only large but also long lasting and shocks to expectations have self-fulfilling effects on inflation.     

人民币对外升值对内贬值矛盾剖析

2005年人民币汇率政策改革以来,人民币对美元大幅升值,从理论上讲,人民币对外持续升值有利于抑制国内通货膨胀,使人民币的购买力增大,可恰恰相反,从2007年以来,中国一直处于高通货膨胀的态势,理论在现实中出现了矛盾。本文通过对人民币升值和通货膨胀的原因分析,得出两者并不矛盾。     

Mass democracy: The real reason that Brazil ended inflation?

“Populism” and expanded democratic participation often have been painted as the enemy of sane macroeconomics. Yet Brazil’s experience suggests possibly benign implications of stable mass democracy for national economic management in developing countries. Prior to 1930, agrarian elites ruled Brazil. As political participation gradually expanded, policymakers elaborated the regulatory framework of import-substituting industrialization (ISI). ISI not only generated strong growth but also chronically high and volatile inflation, with costs falling most heavily on the disenfranchised a poor majority. The advent of mass democracy in the mid-1980s gave the poor a political voice for the first time, and plausibly was the crucial cause for the demise of hyperinflation a decade later.     

中国轻度通货膨胀有利于边疆经济发展

中国实行市场经济后取得的各项成绩使世界震惊.随着社会的发展,各种不同方式的通货膨胀也在所难免,特别是边疆地区由于受到区域性的经济、产业、思想认识和政策的滞后影响,发展速度相对缓慢.边疆地区和发达地区相比较,适当的通货膨胀有助于该地区经济发展.     

贸易收支对我国通货膨胀的影响分析

通货膨胀对宏观经济有非常重大的影响,有效治理通货膨胀是各国政府的共同难题。在全球通货膨胀的背景下,我国通过进出口贸易而产生的输入性通货膨胀压力则再次显现。贸易收支对通货膨胀的影响途径主要是价格传导、货币传导、总供给-总需要传导。Johanson协整检验、向量误差修正模型等计量方法亦证实了贸易收支对我国通货膨胀的影响,得出我国出口总额、进口总额与居民消费价值指数具有长期稳定的比例关系。     

Convergence of inflation: A necessary prerequisite for EMU?

This article assesses the rationale for inflation convergence as a major criterion for the passage to the final stage of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). A simple two-country model is developed to examine the effects of the change in regime under different hypotheses concerning agents' expectations. The results suggest that, in the absence of convergence, the move to EMU is likely to produce spillover effects from the high-inflation to the low-inflation country. The latter, therefore, has a strong incentive to request strict convergence criteria for inflation before moving to EMU.     

Direct Inflation Targeting and Nominal Convergence: The Czech Case

This study analyses the impact of direct inflation targeting (DIT) on monetary policy credibility in the Czech Republic, as evidenced by asset prices. It examines the effect of changes in the two-week repo rate (the official interest rate) on short and long–term market interest rates. It assumes the asymmetry of information and the existence of a stationary stochastic equilibrium with full knowledge of authorities reaction function. We find that at short maturities, the coefficients for changes in the official repo rate are lower in the DIT period than in the pre-crisis period. This implies that the hypothesis of no increase in the transparency of monetary policy with the introduction of DIT can be rejected. We find that bond yields and interest rate swap rates with maturities of 5 years and longer did not react significantly to official interest rate decisions in the DIT period. This is consistent with the hypothesis that monetary policy was credible both before and after introduction of DIT.     

Causes of Inflation in China： Inflation Expectations

This paper argues that the main causes of inflation in China since the early 21st century are changes in the public's inflation expectations. The conventional wisdom, the quantity theory of money, may not be adequate to capture the relationship between price changes and money supply growth, as the economic system evolves and people's income and wealth grow. An examination of China's GDP deflator and broad money supply relative to nominal GDP shows that the relationship between the two series is relatively weak. A further examination of China's monthly CPI series over the period 2001–2010 reveals that the autoregressive models are a better fit than the moving average models, which suggests that the role of CPI expectations has been significant and important. Because of the importance of inflation expectations in CPI movement, we believe the Central Bank's monetary policy that targets CPI inflation should emphasize the use of policy instruments that have direct and strong communication links with the public. Quantitative measures would have their own use, but their effectiveness would be unlikely to match that of interest rate measures, especially from a short‐term perspective.