An Examination of Macroeconomic Effects on the Liquidity of REITs

In this research, we investigate the effects of changes in and levels of selected macroeconomic variables on the liquidity of Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT, henceforth) stocks. We study in particular REIT market trading liquidity and REIT funding liquidity. We use debt service coverage ratios, loan-to-value ratios and the number of loans on commercial commitments as proxies for the funding liquidity of REITs. We use Amihud Illiquidity measurement and Turnover Ratio measurement to estimate REIT market trading liquidity. Our results are fourfold: one, funding liquidity is influenced by changes in macroeconomic factors; two, macroeconomic effects are different across phases of the business cycle; three, funding liquidity is significantly positively related to REIT market liquidity (this is supportive of Brunnermeier and Petersen’s Review of Financial Studies, 22:2201–2238 (2009) findings); and four, these effects vary across economic regimes. A key outcome of this work is that increases in debt to equity reduce market liquidity for REIT stocks.     

The Information Content of Share Repurchase Programs

Contrary to the implications of many payout theories, we find that announcements of open‐market share repurchase programs are not followed by an increase in operating performance. However, we find that repurchasing firms experience a significant reduction in systematic risk and cost of capital relative to non‐repurchasing firms. Further, consistent with the free cash‐flow hypothesis, we find that the market reaction to share repurchase announcements is more positive among those firms that are more likely to overinvest. Finally, we find evidence to indicate that investors underreact to repurchase announcements because they initially underestimate the decline in cost of capital.     

股份回购:提升公司内在价值的新思路

股份回购是我国证券市场的一个新生事物，实施股份回购会对上市公司产生深远影响。本在对股份回购作了简要介绍了基础上，主要探讨了股份回购后对上市公司值提升的意义并提出了回购过程中应注意的问题。     

Insider Trading and Firm Performance Following Open Market Share Repurchase Announcements

The long‐run performance of equity securities subsequent to announcements of open market repurchases (OMR) remains a contentious topic. In this paper we propose the “dichotomous expectations hypothesis” which posits that insider trading following share repurchase announcements reveals private information concerning the future operating performance of announcing firms. In particular, insider abnormal purchases (abnormal sales) should predict an improvement (decline) in operating performance that leads to higher (lower) long‐run stock returns. Our hypothesis offers a credible economic link between insider trading and subsequent long‐run stock performance through the intervening variable of operating performance. The empirical results show consistency with this linkage.     

债权人保护:股份回购资金来源限制的法律漏洞及其填补

2018年《公司法》修改取消股份回购资金来源限制后,股份公司可以通过回购股份向股东返还财产,同时规避利润分配规则与减资规则,导致了债权人保护的法律漏洞。两大证券交易所与全国股转公司发布股份回购实施细则等自律性规范,在一定程度上填补了债权人保护的法律漏洞,并实质性地引入了偿债能力测试及董事责任规则,为公司资本制度的未来变革进行了有益尝试。《公司法》应当把握股份回购导致财产返还的经济实质,恢复资金来源限制,但具体限制标准则依赖于资本维持原则的改革方向。     

An Empirical Examination of the Stated Purposes of Issuer Tender Offers to Purchase Common Stock

This paper documents the purposes of issuer tender offers to repurchase stock, as stated in Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosures, over the period 1994‐2006. We explore whether stated purposes relate to announcement period returns and find returns are significantly lower when repurchases replace dividends, distribute cash from unspecified sources, or occur subsequent to third‐party tender offers. Announcement period returns are significantly higher when repurchases are viewed by management as the best investment opportunity available or when they occur subsequent to previous repurchase programs. Finally, we find evidence in support of signaling theory and Jensen's (1986) agency cost of free cash flow theory.     

The Relative Signalling Power of Dutch-Auction and Fixed-Price Self-Tender Offers and Open-Market Share Repurchases

We compare three forms of common stock repurchases. Dutch-auction self-tender offers and open-market share repurchase programs are weaker signals of stock undervaluation than fixed-price self-tender offers. The price increase from buyback announcements is greater when insider wealth is at risk, greater following negative net-of-market stock returns, and unrelated to prior market returns. Buyback announcement returns are also increasing in the fraction of shares sought, which is consistent with both signalling and an upward-sloping supply curve for stock.     

Tender Offers and Free Cash Flow: An Empirical Analysis

High free cash flow firms are characterized by a mismatch between growth opportunities and resources. High free cash flow target firms receive higher-than-average abnormal returns. Target returns are lower when the bidder is a high free cash flow firm. During the 1970s, results suggested that cash-flow-rich bidding firms pursued low-benefit takeovers. During the 1980s, high free cash flow firms became the targets of tender offers. Results are consistent with the notion that reducing agency problems in target firms generates benefits and that bidding firms with large free cash flow undertake low-benefit acquisitions.     

Institutional Investors and Information Asymmetry: An Event Study of Self-Tender Offers

Our research compares the asymmetric information costs of firms with low levels of institutional ownership to those with high levels. We use self‐tender offers as an information event. Our results show that higher institutional ownership, particularly a higher number of institutional investors, is associated with a lower degree of informed trading. These results persist even after we control for differences in trading activity among our sample firms.     

Underwriter Reputation and Initial Public Offers: The Detrimental Effects of Flippers

In this research, we examine the relationship between the reputation of investment banks and the investor clientele to whom they market initial public offers. We hypothesize that the most reputable investment banks have considerable distribution power but confine initial public offer sales to investors with long-term horizons in an effort to maintain prestige. Using the level of relative after-market trading volume to proxy for investor type, we find that as underwriter reputation increases investors with short-term trading horizons (“flippers”) tend to dominate the offerings over the lower prestige levels. For underwriters in the upper reputation tier, however, this dominance begins to decline with increasing reputation. In addition, we find a negative relation between the after-market price performance of the initial public offer firm and the first week's trading volume. The results suggest that flippers can be detrimental to the performance of initial public offer firms. While distributing power may be essential for the maintenance of the reputation of investment banks, the type of investor clientele also appears to be of major importance.     

上市公司股票流动性影响因素的作用机制分析

通过对金融市场和金融资产流动性的理论进行回顾和研究,影响上市公司股票流动性的因素具体分为外生因素变量和内生因素变量,进一步分析这些因素对上市公司股票流动性的作用机制,有助于机构或个人投资者对证券资产流动性的认识和对流动性风险的管理.     

流动性、风险收益与B股市场境外投资者行为

通过对B股市场的流动性、风险及国外投资者的投资动机进行了研究和度量后发现,B股市场对内开放的确加强了它的流动性,但是B股市场波动风险依然高于A股市场,且国外投资者投资B股市场受流动性变化影响不大,因为其他们投资的主要目的不是分散风险而是获取超额预期回报率。因而,在B股市场存废问题在短期内不能解决的情况下,加强B股市场管理,改善市场结构,对国外投资者的投资行为进行合理的监督和引导是完善B股市场的非常重要的举措。     

Executive Share Options: An Economic Framework

This paper provides an overview of the executive compensation debate with special emphasis on the role of executive share options. Widespread criticism of executive pay typically concentrates on pay levels, rather than the composition of executive pay and its determinants. The paper points out that gains from exercising executive share options are not simply rewards for the period in which they are realised and reported. The economic rationale for rewarding executives through share options is reviewed, leading to the conclusion that options are more likely to form a relatively important part of executive remuneration in organisations which face valuable, but relatively risky, investment opportunities. However, because options can aggravate conflicts of interest such as those that arise between shareholders and lenders, they are not a universally efficient form of executive compensation.     

Asset Liquidity and Stock Liquidity: International Evidence

This study examines the relationship between asset liquidity and stock liquidity across 47 countries. In support of the valuation uncertainty hypothesis, we find that firms with greater asset liquidity on average have higher stock liquidity. More importantly, our study shows that asset liquidity plays a more significant role in resolving valuation uncertainty in countries with poor information environment. For example, we find that the asset–stock liquidity relationship is stronger in countries with poor accounting standards. We further find evidence that after the adoption of IFRS, the improved accounting information environment results in a weaker asset–stock liquidity relation, but only in countries with a strong legal regime. Finally, our study shows that the positive asset–stock liquidity relationship may be attributed to transparency and/or liquidity reasons.     

Identifying Permanent and Temporary Components in Daily and Monthly Japanese Stock Prices

The purpose of this study is to analyze time series of daily and monthly values for the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) and stock price values for 15 companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Section 1 (TSE-I), to determine the contribution of permanent and temporary components to Japanese stock prices. The existence of temporary components in the price series would imply that Japanese stock returns are partially predictable. The method of canonical correlation is used to determine components common to each series and the persistence of each component series is evaluated by estimating the amount of dependence in the series. The results suggest that Japanese stock prices contain a small temporary component. The fractionally integrated ARIMA (ARFIMA) model is used to characterize both the component series and an estimate of the temporary component for each original price series. The contribution of the temporary component to the total variation of the price series estimated. We find that, in general, the temporary component accounts for less than 8% of the variation in the daily price series and from 5% to 15% of variation in the monthly price series, indicating that there may be a small amount of predictability in Japanese stock prices.     

Pursuing Value Through Liquidity in IPOs: Underpricing,Share Retention,Lockup, and Trading Volume Relationships

We argue that in an initial public offering (IPO), pre-IPO owners make decisions regarding underpricing, share retention, and share lockup simultaneously and optimally to maximize aftermarket liquidity. We predict that underpricing fosters higher trading volume in both the short run and the long run. Also, liquidity is negatively related to the proportion of shares retained by pre-IPO owners, ceteris paribus, so IPO underpricing should be positively related to the proportion of shares retained, as an offset. We document evidence consistent with these predictions. In addition, we find that, for IPOs with a lockup restriction, underpricing is more substantial and the positive relation between share retention and underpricing is much stronger. We also find that the relationship between underpricing and trading volume is stronger for IPOs with lockup. IPOs with lockup have higher trading volume, and a significant portion of this difference is associated with the effect of underpricing.JEL Classification: G10, G14, G24     

A Bayesian Approach to Real Options: The Case of Distinguishing between Temporary and Permanent Shocks

Traditional real options models demonstrate the importance of the “option to wait” due to uncertainty over future shocks to project cash flows. However, there is often another important source of uncertainty: uncertainty over the permanence of past shocks. Adding Bayesian uncertainty over the permanence of past shocks augments the traditional option to wait with an additional “option to learn.” The implied investment behavior differs significantly from that in standard models. For example, investment may occur at a time of stable or decreasing cash flows, respond sluggishly to cash flow shocks, and depend on the timing of project cash flows.     

Effects of Temporary In‐Work Benefits for Welfare Recipients: Examination of the Australian Working Credit Programme*

We investigate the impact of ‘Working Credit’, a nationally‐implemented programme which created increased incentives for welfare recipients to undertake temporary work. Highlighting the difficulties in identifying programme effects in the absence of a randomised controlled trial or a natural experiment, we produce estimates of impacts under alternative identifying assumptions and also undertake various robustness checks. Unconditional and regression‐adjusted difference‐in‐difference estimates suggest that the introduction of the Working Credit programme increased employment rates, earnings and exits for those on income support, but matching methods and various robustness checks provide conflicting evidence on the impact on movements from welfare to work for unemployment benefit recipients. Moreover, estimated effects on earnings while on benefits are sensitive to identifying assumptions. Notwithstanding our inability to conclusively identify causal effects of the programme, we note that our findings are broadly consistent with the incentive effects of the programme, with recipients making use of the credits to increase earnings while on benefits, but not increasing movements off welfare.