Analysis of real GDP growth rates of greater China: An asymmetric conditional volatility approach

Most empirical studies of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates exclude the dimension of conditional volatility shocks. In this paper, we search for evidence of conditional volatility in the quarterly real GDP of greater China, which comprises the economies of Mainland China, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), and Taiwan. The widely accepted exponential GARCH model of Nelson [Econometrica 59 (1991) 347–370] is employed to capture the possible existence of asymmetric conditional volatility in real GDP. It is found that negative real GDP shocks may induce a greater impact on future volatilities compared with positive shocks of the same magnitude. Policy implications from our findings are discussed.     

Public investment and business cycles: The case of Japan

This paper examines the effect of public investment on macroeconomic fluctuations in Japan by comparing the effects of central and local government investments. Impulse response functions show that central government investments slightly but persistently stimulate industrial production, while local government investments have no positive impact on business cycles. In terms of policy effectiveness, these results suggest that the Japanese government should not employ local public sector investments as a policy instrument for economic stabilization.     

浅析重化工业对GDP可持续增长的影响

当前,我国工业化已进入重化工业迅速发展的新阶段。重化工业的发展带动了连续数年来我国GDP的持续快速增长,对GDP的推动作用是毋庸置疑的。与此同时,我们也要充分防范重化工业在能源消耗、生态环境破坏、就业压力和金融风险等方面对GDP可持续增长的消极影响。     

扩大信贷投放与GDP增长关系:对上海市的实证研究

本文以上海地区为例,通过对不同来源的固定资产投资资金(其中包括银行贷款)与GDP增长的相关性分析,以及银行业机构各类贷款与GDP增长的关联度分析,发现上海投资资金中的国内贷款、国家预算内资金与GDP增长的线性关系最显著,银行业机构的人民币短期工业贷款、人民币中长期基础建设贷款与GDP增长的关联度最高。     

东日本大地震对日本经济与世界经济的影响

2011年3月11日日本东北地区发生了日本有史以来最大级别9.0级大地震,随之引发了大海啸,对东日本沿海地区造成了严重破坏,夺去了2万多人的生命。更为麻烦的是这次大地震和大海啸还导致了福岛第一核电站的核泄漏,这一次生灾害带来的恶劣影响甚至超过地震和海啸带来的灾难。总体来看,如果核泄漏能够得以控制,其对短期的日本经济影响很大,但程度有限,对世界经济和中国经济的影响也有限,但对日本经济发展的长期影响则不可低估。     

Interindustry effects of productivity growth in Japan: 1960–2000

Combining conventional sectoral growth accounting and the static open input–output price model, we analyze the sources of growth of product prices in Japan during the period 1960–2000. Using the input–output framework, we take into account not only the effects of factor costs and productivity within a sector, but also their impacts outside of the sector. We find that Japan's deflation in the 1990s was characterized by low growth of wage rates, low productivity growth, and a low rate of return on capital. Until 1990, productivity improvements compensated for factor cost pressures on output price, especially the rapid growth of labor cost. In contrast, during the 1990s, decreasing rates of return on capital, not productivity improvements, canceled out the inflationary effect of wage growth. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 568–585.     

Capital gains tax and individual trading: The case of Japan

Japan implemented a capital gains tax reform and reduced its flat rate in 2003. This study attempts to explain how this has contributed to the recent surge of individual trading, using three different methods of analysis. First, we perform a time-series analysis with the aggregate, market-level data. Second, we use firm-level, by-stock data to conduct a similar time-series analysis, as well as a panel data analysis. Third, we examine the price-change sensitivity of winners’ volume before and after the reform. The results clearly indicate that the tax cut has helped expand individual trading, as the average tax rate negatively correlates significantly with individual trading.     

中日韩与东盟(10+3)税收协调研究

中日韩与东盟经济合作的现状决定了(10 3)国家间区域性税收协调的深度和广度。本文通过分析中日韩与东盟(10 3)区域税收国际协调现状、困难,提出了(10 3)税收国际协调应该遵循的原则,建议应建立中日韩与东盟(10 3)区域税收协调机制,以及消除货物、服务贸易中阻碍商品、人员自由流动、涉及投资所得等税收因素,以促进(10 3)国家间商品、资本、劳务、知识产权等的自由流动。     

实施"科教立国"战略是日本现代化成功的基石

日本现代化是继西方模式和苏东模式现代化模式之后的世界第三种现代化模式——东亚现代化模式中的典型代表．第三种现代化模式的最主要特征，是重视人的因素要大于重视物的因素，把提高人的素质视为现代化的第一要素．要做到这一点，最根本的途径是重视教育，长期坚持基本教育，坚持“科教立国”的根本性战略．日本在坚持实行现代化的“文化模式”实践中，走出了一条有自己特色的现代化之路，这种模式理应引起全世界的广泛瞩目。     

物流产业发展对综合国力的影响:以日本为例

日本物流处于世界领先水平,其发展已成为综合国力的重要标志。通过考察日本物流,其现代化、国际化进程中物流的系统论创新理念,政府的物流产业政策扶持及导向,健全完善的物流法规,通畅的政府部门间的协调机制,设立专项资金,搭建物流公共信息平台,发挥行业协会作用,整合现代物流资源,加强标准体系及行业统计指标体系建设,以及企业的高科技应用、规模效应、精细化管理、社会资源的合理配置等成功经验为我国物流的现代化、国际化提供了重要启迪。     

中日农民收入与消费结构比较研究

农村是我国最大的消费市场,目前我国农民消费需求不足已成为制约经济增长的主要因素之一。通过对日本与我国农民收入与消费结构的比较研究发现,我国农民不仅收入水平低,而且收入来源单一,这是造成农民的消费水平差异的主要原因。在消费结构方面,中日两国的变化趋势相似。这一研究对于解决我国的农民消费问题提供了一些启示。     

Categories and causes of bank distress during the great depression, 1929–1933: The illiquidity versus insolvency debate revisited

During the contraction from 1929 to 1933, the Federal Reserve System tracked changes in the status of all banks operating in the United States and determined the cause of each bank suspension. This essay analyzes chronological patterns in aggregate series constructed from that data. The analysis demonstrates both illiquidity and insolvency were substantial sources of bank distress. Periods of heightened distress were correlated with periods of increased illiquidity. Contagion via correspondent networks and bank runs propagated the initial banking panics. As the depression deepened and asset values declined, insolvency loomed as the principal threat to depository institutions.     

商会和行业协会在日本经济高速增长过程中的作用

商会和行业协会作为一种“中间性组织”,是日本战后经济体制的重要组成部分。在日本实现经济高速增长的过程中,商会和行业协会不仅通过形成“有组织的市场”对资源进行合理、有效的配置,而且在弥补市场经济的缺陷和不足以及协助国家进行经济战略管理和制定、实施产业政策等方面,发挥了政府、企业和市场不可替代的作用。     

Post- war European economic development as an out of equilibrium growth path. The case of the Netherlands

The paper examines a number of aspects of post-war economic development of the Netherlands in the light of recent out of equilibrium growth theory. It contains a comparison of the stylized facts of the long run performance of the economies of the United States and the Netherlands which suggests that the US has been on an equilibrium growth path for more than a century, but that the Netherlands followed a radically different growth path, especially after 1945. It is attempted to explain this erratic behaviour of the investment ratio and the wage share after 1945 by examining two aspects more in detail: the financing of the acceleration of growth after 1945 and the phase of too rapid growth during the 1950s and 1960s, when the growth of the demand for labour tended to be higher than the increase in its supply.     

The need for economic policy coordination between Europe,Japan, and the United States: Policy recommendations for the 1990s

Better policy coordination between Europe, Japan, and the United States is urgently needed in order to restore economic growth and to diminish mutual trade imbalances. Using the EC Compact model it is shown how coordinated fiscal policies can contribute to reaching these goals in the 1990s. For Europe, the most plausible fiscal policy option seems to be a combination of lower direct taxes, public spending cuts, and wage moderation; for Japan a more expansionary fiscal policy is feasible. For the United States, however, public spending cuts or tax increases are necessary conditions for better economic performance. In addition, for all three blocks a swap between tax reduction and wage moderation is recommended.     

企业的可持续发展—可持续增长率模型的应用

相对于企业的增长缓慢,企业的主管往往并不会为企业的发展过快而担忧,他们甚至认为发展得越快越好。但是接踵而来的事情往往让他们措手不及,甚至处于濒临破产的境地。本文引入可持续增长率模型,说明其中原委,并简要阐述了企业应对市场的大好发展契机的几项具体措施。     

Short selling and stock prices with regime switching in the absence of market makers: The case of Japan

This paper investigates the relation between short selling and stock price at an aggregated market level. In order to study the differential impact of market microstructure on short selling, the data from Japanese stock markets are used. Both traditional regression and Markov switching models are used to compare Japanese results to those of U.S. and to admit non-stationary relation between short selling and stock price, respectively. Particularly, relatively long period (1978–2002) of analysis including bullish and bearish periods gives a good testable bed for studying the effect of short selling on stock price according to market condition. The empirical findings reveal that percentage change of short interests has a statistically significant positive relation with stock returns. It gives regulators policy implication that short selling is not a destabilizing activity, but an acceptable form of trading even in the absence of market makers. And short selling information cannot be used as an indicator for predicting future stock markets.     

Modeling coordinated foreign exchange market interventions: The case of the Japanese and U.S. interventions in the 1990s

During the past thirty years, central banks often intervened in foreign exchange markets. Sometimes they carried out foreign exchange market interventions on a unilateral basis. However, central banks often coordinated their foreign exchange market interventions. We develop a quantitative reaction function model that renders it possible to study the factors that made central banks switch from unilateral to coordinated interventions. We apply our model to the intervention policies of the Japanese monetary authorities and the U.S. Federal Reserve in the yen/U.S. dollar market during the period 1991–2001. To this end, we use recently released official data on the foreign exchange market interventions of the Japanese monetary authorities. JEL no. F31, F33, G14, G15     

Social networks,rule of law and economic growth in China: The elusive pursuit of the right combination of private and public ordering

Social networks have always been an integral part of every society. However, they are different and play a more prominent role in Asian societies. In particular, it will be argued that the relationship of private ordering, networks of relationships, and informal law to formal law are necessary in addition to rule of law for a sustained economic growth. This is evident in how various Asian countries escaped the financial crisis that crippled the region. Rather than an analysis of several different Asian societies, China will be the main focus.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.