The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime： The Relevance of International Experience to China＇s Decision

The Chinese exchange rate has been the focus of discussion for many months, with both internal and external considerations seemingly pointing to the desirability of a currency revaluation. This paper draws from the lessons of international experience with exchangerate regimes in the period since Worm War Two. It lays out the conditions necessary to validate a fixed exchange rate and some intermediate regimes that might work when a fixed rate is inappropriate. It then discusses what the analysis implies for contemporary China.     

人民币升 鞋业出口降?

中国自2005年7月21日建立起由市场力量对汇率进行定价的新机制，人民币对美元即日升值2％，即1美元兑8．11元人民币。此后在国内外投资者普遍对于人民币进一步升值预期强烈的背景下，人民币汇率呈现持续升值的趋势。由于制鞋行业具有劳动密集和低附加值的特征．国外替代市场多，企业多采取价格竞争策略。毋庸置疑，人民币升值将会抹平中国鞋业出口的利润。     

Measuring Pricing to Market in the Eurozone: The Case of the Automobile Industry

In this paper we measure the pricing to market for the main export products in the Eurozone automobile industry. Results reveal that significant markup adjustments exist following exchange rate variations. In general, these adjustments allow a strong stabilization of prices in buyer's currency terms. Nevertheless, the degree of pricing to market is quite heterogeneous and differs highly across both product categories and destination markets.     

The Response of Trade Prices to Exchange Rate Changes

The present paper examines export and import pricing behavior following exchange rate changes in small, open economies. Using a monopolistic model, this study reveals that export and import prices should change but not in proportion to exchange rate movements. The policy implication of the results is that the pricing to market phenomenon could be a critical factor in explaining the evolution of the external trade balance with strategic interaction present in the case of prices on tradable goods. Consequently, the use of an exchange rate policy in the case of external imbalances should be a central issue within the broader context of how market structure and conduct affect the optimal traded goods prices.     

Renminbi exchange rate exposure: evidence from Chinese industries

This paper investigates sensitivity of stock returns of industry-sorted Chinese firms with respect to renminbi exchange rate movements. Strong evidence of significant exposure is documented for 7 out of 16 Chinese industries. Evidence is also found of the size asymmetry effects. In addition, we explore the characteristics of the exposure, and detect evidence of significant exposure among non-exporters in some of the industries. Special attention is given to examining the time-varying exposure under the impact of the new Chinese exchange rate regime in place since 2005, in which even stronger exchange rate exposure is reported. The conditional exposure estimated in this paper also reveals the close relation between stock returns and changes of the renminbi exchange rate.     

市场分割下中国双重上市公司资产定价效率问题研究

文章对双重上市公司在不同市场首次公开发行定价、上市首日抑价和二级市场交易价格差异三个层次对资产定价效率进行了经验数据分析,结果表明,内资股相对外资股具有发行定价高、首目抑价高的“双高”现象;在定价效率方面,对于“A＋H”公司,A股的发行定价受到发行时H股二级市场价格的显著影响,而与H股的发行价格之间没有显著关系,但“A＋B”公司A股和B股的发行价格之间存在显著的正相关,同时在二级市场上,“A＋H”公司的市场价差波动相对于“A＋B”公司小。这意味着“A＋H”公司的资产定价效率要高于“A＋B”公司,H股的价格较能反映公司的真实估值,对A股的定价具有指导作用。     

中国离完全市场经济地位有多远?——“入世”之后话“入市”:

近两年来,随着中国企业在国外遭遇的反倾销调查日益增多,中国的"市场经济地位"问题已成为各方关注的焦点。本文拟就中国市场经济地位问题的由来及学术界的相关争论作个简要的梳理,以便帮助读者了解这一问题的概貌。     

中国离完全市场经济地位有多远?——“入世”之后话“入市”:

近两年来，随着中国企业在国外遭遇的反倾销调查日益增多，中国的“市场经济地位”问题已成为各方关注的焦点。本文拟就中国市场经济地位问题的由来及学术界的相关争论作个简要的梳理，以便帮助读者了解这一问题的概貌。     

基于Fama-French三因素模型的我国A股市场的实证分析

实证检验了Fama-French三因素模型描述我国A股市场期望超额收益率的解释能力。分别针对上证A股和深证A股做了四类模型的回归分析,为了能够从各类模型的对比中准确地捕捉到各因素影响投资组合期望超额收益率动态特征。结果显示,随着公司规模和账面市值比的变化,市场风险因素的系数变化不大,而规模风险因素的系数和账面市值比风险因素的系数呈现巨大差异,模型的拟合效果表明Fama-French三因素模型在我国A股市场表现出相当高的解释能力。     

Renminbi Exchange Rate: Peg to A Wide Band Currency Basket

Persistent renminbi (RMB) devaluation expectations are one of the greatest threats to China's macroeconomic stability. Market interventions backed by huge foreign exchange reserves and capital controls are not sufficient to eliminate the expectations of devaluation. Creating a market‐based and flexible RMB exchange rate regime holds the key to the elimination of devaluation expectations. The present paper compares the pros and cons of several policy options, and proposes to introduce, as a transition to free floating, a new exchange rate regime pegged to a currency basket with a wide band. The new regime should be able to give the RMB exchange rate enough flexibility to eliminate devaluation expectations as well as prevent excessive overshooting. To ensure a smooth transition, the new regime needs to be supported by controlling cross‐border capital flows.     

Access to Finance,Financial Development and Firm Ability to Export: Experience from Asia–Pacific Countries

With particular reference to Asia–Pacific countries, the present study examines how access to finance and financial development affects firms’ ability to enter export markets. Using firm‐level data from the World Bank Enterprises Survey, we found that access to finance plays a significant role in improving firms’ ability to export. In addition, development of the financial sector fosters export market entry. Among the financial development indicators, reach of the banking sector variable is most prominent. The present study suggests that improvements in access to finance and financial development (increases in the reach of the banking sector) enable firms operating away from capital or major cities to enter export markets easily. The present study supports policy intervention to strengthen access to the financial sector, which would encourage firms to export, and to facilitate export market entry for remotely located firms.     

Empirical Study on Information Asymmetry Based on Chinese Forward Exchange Rate Market

Many published studies have considered information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors about local assets in the stock market, particularly in developed markets. The present study proposes a new perspective to address the issue in the case of China's forward exchange rate market. Following the framework of Clarida and Taylor (1997), the term structures of exchange rates in the domestic forward and the non‐deliverable forward markets are constructed and then applied to predict future spot exchange rates based on a vector equilibrium correction model. By comparing the forecast accuracy on the basis of the root mean square error and the mean absolute error, it is shown that dynamic out‐of‐sample forecasts of the domestic forward market are superior to those of the non‐deliverable forward market, suggesting that domestic investors are better informed than foreign investors. The result has several important policy implications, especially for exchange rate determination.