Political Party Impacts on Direct Democracy: the 2015 Greek Austerity Referendum

On July 5, 2015, Greek voters were asked whether to approve or reject the terms of an austerity program offered by the European Union (EU) to resolve an ongoing financial crisis. With a turnout rate of 62.5% overall, 61.3% of Greeks voted “no.” While a majority of voters in every district opposed the bailout’s terms, the margin against the proposed austerity measures ranged from 51.2% in Lakonias to 73.8% in Chanion. This paper presents empirical evidence on the determinants of the “no” vote across Greece’s 56 electoral districts. Our analysis is grounded in public choice theories of why large numbers of people turn out to vote in mass elections. In addition to controlling for standard “instrumental” vote motives, we ask whether political party labels, which serve as summary measures of partisan positioning, and party platforms, which express partisan preferences on ballot questions, are salient in determining electoral outcomes. Holding constant the unemployment rate and average voter age (at the regional level) and the fraction of young people casting ballots for the first time on July 5, 2015 (at the district level), we find that the percentage of ‘no’ votes was reduced significantly by voter support for Greece’s leading pro-austerity party (New Democracy) in the previous nationwide election held in January 2015. In contrast, voter support in January for the anti-austerity party (Syriza), led by sitting Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, had no measurable impact on July’s referendum results. This finding offers support for both instrumental and expressive theories of voting and bolsters the claim that political parties can shape electoral outcomes on questions decided by an institution of direct democracy.     

城乡统一建设用地市场形成的动力机制研究

"土地城镇化"模式下城乡土地利益结构失衡问题日趋严重,强制性构建城乡统一建设用地市场的目标在短期内较难实现,而在诱致性制度变迁的推动下,由农民自发组成、得到政府支持、有限度的城乡统一建设用地市场是可能的。文章从制度变迁的博弈均衡视角出发,结合地方政府与中央政府、开发商、农村基层政权和农民四组博弈,探讨推动城乡统一建设用地市场形成的动力机制,为其破除制度障碍和减少改革阻力提供理论基础。     

村委会选举中的贿选：两种信任的绞合

村庄信任资源存量高并不必然促进基层社区政治权力的正向分配,由非正式行为准则和互惠规范构建的乡村人际信任网络将选民与贿选者捆绑,形成道德共同体和利益共同体,为贿选提供非正式制度依托。制度信任被操纵成为贿选者规避风险的工具,加之它回应选民诉求的迟钝和乏力,迫使选民转而依附人际信任。高能的乡村人际信任不断挤占制度信任空间,形成纵容贿选的“加速数效应”。为此,培育新型农村社区组织,转变宗族式信任分配机制为制度化的信任分配机制可有效预防和遏止乡村贿选。     

Consumer perspectives on the African sharptooth catfish in rural and urban areas of the Northern Province

This study evaluated consumer behavioural patterns in relation to meat products, with special reference to the African sharptooth catfish, in the Northern Province. Personal interviews were conducted in rural Ga‐Mamphaka and urban Giyani. The major meat type purchased was found to be chicken (71 per cent in the rural and 46 per cent in the urban community). The sharptooth catfish was found to be acceptable to the majority of respondents, both urban (69 per cent) and rural (57 per cent). Most respondents also indicated that they would like to purchase canned catfish. A potential market for catfish would seem to exist at a price competitive with that of chicken.     

城乡基本公共物品均衡配置的可行性分析

城乡基本公共物品供给均衡配置是实现城乡协调、缩小城乡差距的特定途径。我国城乡基本公共物品配置制度在新时期的改革与建设中尽管已经取得了很大成就,但农村公共物品供给还相对落后,城乡基本公共物品配置呈现出严重的非均衡性。经过30年的改革开放,我国已由生存型阶段进入发展型的新阶段,综合国力的提高、工业化发展阶段的变化以及党和政府治理理念的转变,使城乡基本公共物品均衡配置具有现实可行性。     

Liberalizing rural-to-urban construction land transfers in China: Distribution effects

China's land market is characterized by a dual urban-rural system, with the government in control of rural-urban land transfers. In recent years, different types of pilot projects have been implemented to experiment with liberalizing markets for rural-urban construction land transfers. The objective of this study is to gain insights into the distributional effects of three different types of land liberalization rules by making a comparative analysis of three pilot projects carried out under each of these liberalization rules. We find that transfers facing more liberalized rules result in higher shares of land revenue flowing to the rural sector and thereby reduce the ruralurban income gap. But direct transfers between rural and urban land users also contribute to growing income inequality within the rural sector, as households living in urban fringes benefit relatively more from such transfers. A tradable quota system can reduce the impact of location on the price of land, and thereby contribute to a more equal distribution of the revenues of rural-urban land transfers within the rural sector.     

A politicoeconomic model of wage inflation

Summary The paper employs a public choice perspective to develop a model of centralized union wage bargaining. The actors considered are political parties, employers' federations, voters, union officials and members of the rank and file, with the emphasis being put on the latter three. Control theory is used to analyze bargaining outcomes in a dynamic context. The theoretical consequences of the model, which stress the importance of political variables such as government ideology, preferences of the rank and file members, election dates and the degree of union centralization on wage inflation, are supported by West German data.Helpful comments from Chris Goodrich and an anonymous referee of this Journal are gratefully acknowledged.     

公共利益征地之市场化决策机制研究

实践证明,政府以公共利益之名的征地模式之土地资源配置方式是低效的,已导致了日益严重的城乡二元结构社会。目前,我国无论是在立法层面还是在政策层面,都有意无意地排斥市场决策机制的规制。"土地财政"之瘾、"对上负责"之道和"身兼数职"之状分别是阻碍其生成的经济、政治和体制利益根源。遵循市场经济规律、以市场为主导、使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用和更好地发挥政府的监管职能,是我国公共利益征地市场化决策机制形成的正确路径。     

都市型核心商圈的生命周期研究

商圈的繁荣只是其在某一年龄阶段的特征.在对商圈理论进行较全面回顾的基础上,对选址、商业设施和建筑设施、业态组合、业种布局等都市型核心商圈发育成长的主要影响因素进行分析,并根据以上因素对商圈不同阶段的影响,将都市型核心商圈生命周期划分为发育期、成长期、扩张期、成熟期、衰退期,对各阶段特征和阶段演进的临界点进行分析,探索都市型核心商圈因素决定模型,思考都市型核心商圈培育、维护、推进的对策,提出发展都市型核心商圈的政策建议.     

“三维”视角下的城乡公共服务互动机制分析

构建城乡公共服务的一体化机制,是促进城乡公共资源均衡配置的核心要素。它以政府、居民和企业作为其中的参与主体,各以不同的方式形成相应的"三维"机制。文章运用博弈论方法进行了分析:政府监督审计机制,提高审计水平和法制意识,并加大处罚力度;城乡居民参与机制,通过调节分配实现福利最大化;社会企业投资机制,引导其投资公共服务并适当补贴。最后提出了提升"三维"互动机制的政策建议。     

北京市森林生态补偿分摊研究

基于2019-2021年北京市各区森林资源相关数据,在森林生态服务价值核算的基础上采用离差平方法核算北京各区森林生态效益补偿的分摊系数。通过分析发现,首都核心区的三年平均森林生态效益分摊系数较高,城市功能拓展区的三年平均森林生态效益分摊系数的平均值高于城市发展新区。生态涵养区作为北京市森林生态服务的主要供给者,分摊系数区间为2.99%～4.27%。     

The role of dryland cotton as a source of household income in two magisterial districts of KwaZulu

The aim of this paper is to illuminate certain economic aspects of the production of dryland cotton among rural households in the Ubombo and Hlabisa magisterial districts of KwaZulu. In order to assess the viability of the household cotton enterprise, its contribution to household income and the producers' perceived constraints to production, an interview survey was conducted among 100 cotton‐adopting households in the two study areas. Multi‐stage sampling techniques were employed to facilitate the study.

Results show that the Ubombo region's inherent climatic suitability, combined with extensive support services, has benefited the dryland producer and resulted in a lucrative on‐farm enterprise. Cotton contributed an average of 62 per cent to annual household income in this district

In the climatically less suitable Hlablsa district, where producers are limited by lack of finance and small land sizes, wage labour was found to be the prime source of cash income for the household, while cotton contributed an average of 17 per cent towards annual household income.

Producers in both areas are cost effective relative to the white commercial farmer while mean yields and net incomes indicate that dryland cotton has the potential to contribute much to the development of certain areas of KwaZulu. Overspending on chemicals may indicate the need for increased extension into complex pest control management procedures.     

Indonesian politics in 2012: coalitions,accountability and the future of democracy

Indonesia is a successful but flawed democracy: while the electoral process has worked well, the quality of democratic governance is less encouraging. Missing from the equation between elections and democracy is political accountability. Parties’ obsession with coalition building as a route to political power has made it difficult for voters to attribute success or failure to elected officials. Coalition government allows politicians to send contradictory messages, and in 2012 religious minorities – which are neither banned nor protected – have paid a heavy price for the lack of accountability and leadership. In Jakarta an outsider, Joko Widodo, won the gubernatorial election despite facing an incumbent backed by a broad coalition. His victory illustrates that coalition building does not guarantee success, and that the electorate is mature enough not to be swayed by appeals to religious and ethnic sentiment. This gives heart to those hoping to strengthen democracy and democratic values in Indonesia.     

A proposed institutional framework for successful rural development in less developed areas of Southern Africa∗

Whatever aspects of institutional change are important for successful rural development, political power will inevitably be a determining issue. A strong national planning and development organisation to facilitate co‐ordination between government departments, parastatal and other organisations is essential. Coupled with this is the need for a national policy for action, with supporting services and adequate financial support. Suggestions have been put forward for decentralised, co‐ordinated and effective administrative organisations at village, district and regional level, with particular emphasis laid on village‐level participation in rural development programmes.

There should be an autonomous institution for the promotion of input supplies and marketing, consistent government financing, rural infrastructure and rural service centres, all of which are essential for successful rural development. It is important that the activities of the private sector be co‐ordinated at various levels as part of the national rural development effort. A politically acceptable land tenure code with appropriate legislative and judicial support needs to be built in to a rural development strategy.

It is essential that there be appropriate co‐ordination of research and extension through proper institutional mechanisms, so that it becomes an integral part of rural development planning.     

Urban‐biased Policies and the Increasing Rural–Urban Expenditure Gap in Vietnam in the 1990s

There was a significant and widening rural–urban gap during the economic boom in Vietnam in the 1990s. Using an econometric decomposition, we find that differences in individual characteristics such as education, ethnicity and age are the primary explanation for this widening gap, whereas differences in the returns to these characteristics are the primary explanation for the increase in the gap at higher percentiles. We then argue that government investment policies and the manipulation of price incentives were important factors behind the gap. In particular, we argue that government policies created some benefit to urban dwellers at the expense of rural areas, lending support to Lipton's urban‐bias hypothesis, which states that government, under strong political pressure from the urban population, directs resources from rural to urban areas without consideration of efficiency or equity.     

Livestock as a buffer against HIV and AIDS income shocks in the rural households of Zimbabwe

The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which households use livestock sales to mitigate the impact of HIV/AIDS income shocks. Using survey data from the Muzarabani and Bindura districts of Mashonaland Central Province in Zimbabwe, the econometric analysis indicated that livestock, particularly poultry and small stock, play a significant role in smoothing income fluctuations due to HIV/AIDS. Cattle sales compensate for 71 per cent of income shortfalls due to HIV/AIDS. About 90 per cent of HIV/AIDS-afflicted households, headed mainly by women or children, used poultry and goats as consumption-smoothing strategies when faced with negative income shocks. Government and other stakeholders were advised to support the use of small stock as a strategy for coping with HIV/AIDS economic shock in female- or child-headed households in rural areas.     

Using linear and logit functions to identify adopters and non‐adopters of farm technology: Some policy considerations for KwaZulu

Kleynhans (1983) showed that the variables population density and number of migrant workers contributed significantly to linear discriminant scores computed for Black farmers in the Amaci district of KwaZulu.

The purpose of this paper is to formulate policy recommendations for the Amaci district and to check the relevancy of these recommendations in other parts of KwaZulu.

The policy recommendations were based on Kleynhans’ discriminating variables and proposed that permanent Black urbanization was essential for rural development. The significance of these variables was checked using linear probability and logit functions. The linear and logit functions were subsequently used to classify adopters and non‐adopters of farm technology in two other districts of KwaZulu. The results suggest that policies formulated for the Amaci district may also be appropriate for other districts.     

A Model of Occupational Choice Applied to Rural Kenya

Abstract: The paper studies occupational patterns in rural Kenya using a large cross-sectional data collected from farm households in seven districts. Consistent with the agrarian nature of the Kenyan economy, we find that 74 per cent of rural households have farming as their principal occupation. The remaining 26 per cent are engaged in nonfarm activities. The existing rural occupational structure is shown to be a consequence of rational career decisions of households. Education and proximity to market centers are the key factors in the transformation of occupational structure in rural Kenya. Résumé: Cet article analyse les schémas de choix professionnels dans les zones rurales du Kenya en se basant sur un vaste esnemble de données recueillies auprès des ménages ruraux de sept districts. Comme le laissait présager le caractère agricole de l'économie kényane, 74 pour cent des ménages ruraux ont l'agriculture pour activité principale; les 26 pour cent restants sont engagés dans des activités non agricoles. Il est démontré que la structure actuelle des choix de professions dans les zones rurales découle de décisions rationnelles prises par les ménages. L'éducation et la proximité des centres de commercialisation sont les facteurs prépondérants qui conditionnent la transformation des schémas professionnels dans les zones rurales du Kenya.     

The Allocation of Publicly-Provided Goods to Rural Households in India: On Some Consequences of Caste, Religion and Democracy

What determines the allocation of publicly-provided goods to rural households in India? Although empirically driven this paper draws on the characteristics of India's institutional structure and the implications of existing literature for framing the answer to this question. We confront the main empirical implications drawn from this framework with a unique data set which brings together widely used district data with a recently constructed data set on political participation. We identify three robust determinants of this allocation process: formal and informal characteristics of each state allocation mechanism; selectivity in the allocations against Muslims and scheduled castes; and bureaucratic rules and behavior.     

Incumbency and Distributive Politics: Intergovernmental Transfers in Mexico

In this article, the objective is to focus on the likelihood that politicians will rely on intergovernmental transfers to pursue political ambition. In what circumstances are incumbents more likely to rely on transfers to win votes, than to reward core supporters? How are constraints (introduced to ensure that politicians rely on predetermined formulae which reduce the incentive to design transfers to win re‐election) likely to influence “distributive politics?” Predictions in this article are tested with reference to intergovernmental transfers to 31 Mexican states between 2004 and 2012.