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Peter Weekes 《海外经济评论》2008,(8):43-44
多年来,中国给澳大利亚商铺带来廉价商品,但如今,中国最新的出口是通胀,经济学家表示未来6个月商品价格将上涨。
能源价格、劳动力成本和原材料成本上涨,新的环境及税务规则迫使中国制造商提高出口品价格,这反过来会转嫁给消费者。澳大利亚零售业协会会长伊万斯(Richard Evans)认为这不过是供与求。 相似文献
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第一个问号结构性上涨是否会导致通货膨胀?
背景板:针对今年的物价上涨,有人认为这是结构性上涨,中国不会出现恶性通胀,因为通胀的压力已经在价格改革中释放了。 相似文献
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利用匹配的工业企业微观数据与中国出口六分位数据,本文实证分析了出口企业竞争强度对出口低价格的影响方向和影响程度。结论发现:尽管出口企业竞争强度降低了中国出口价格,但是其影响程度不到1%;相反,进口国价格水平这一"非中国因素"却解释了中国出口产品价格变化的50%以上。因此出口企业竞争强度以及中国自身行业特征并非中国低价出口的主因,这意味着获得"出口定价权"是解决中国低价出口的根本之道。 相似文献
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通货膨胀预期必将全面推高资产价格 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
随着全球各大央行都开始实行“量化宽松”的货币政策,市场上越来越多的人开始谈论世纪通胀问题了。所谓通货膨胀就是指市面上钞票太多了,以至于远远比商品数量要多,于是商品的价格开始上涨。而通货膨胀预期是指,人们已经估计到通货膨胀要来,因此预先打算做好准备要避免通胀给自己造成损害,然而人们防范通胀的措施本身就会造成资产价格的上升。 相似文献
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8月21日当周,鲜猪肉价格比2个月前已高出11%,并带动了农产品价格普涨。为何猪肉价格一上涨,社会对通胀的预期就增强?通不通胀,难道是"猪"说了算? 相似文献
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Necmettin Tarhan Feyzioglu Luke Byrne Willard 《中国与世界经济(英文版)》2008,16(1):1-16
With China's share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-2003 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was causing sharp increases in global prices. This paper uses several econometric techniques to assess the extent of the link between inflation rates between China and the USA and Japan. Only limited empirical evidence at the aggregate level is found for consumer price inflation in China leading to price changes in the USA and Japan. However, there is some evidence that inflation in the USA has an impact on Chinese inflation. The results seem consistent with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan being concerned about inflation and, hence, adjusting policy such that inflation shocks have no significant effect on overall inflation. Recent Chinese price rises are unlikely to have a material effect on the USA or Japan. 相似文献
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There has been much controversy about the impact of Chinese growth on the rest of the world. It is generally accepted that China has a dampening effect on global inflation through the supply of cheap products. On the other hand, imports from China could displace domestic production and hence have adverse effects on economic growth and employment. Thus, the question of whether a country benefits from trading with China is a country-specific issue. The results in this paper indicate that limited short-term costs have resulted from the strengthening of trade relations between South Africa and China. As far as inflation is concerned, the paper does not find convincing empirical evidence at the aggregate level for inflation in China leading to domestic price changes. At the disaggregate level, however, there appear to be stronger sector-specific linkages between prices in China and South Africa. 相似文献
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In this paper we construct a set of indices that capture the special features of the Chinese commodity futures market for the period from January 2000 to December 2011 to analyze the general properties of China's commodity futures market. Using these indices we investigate the risk premiums of Chinese commodity futures and verify that the commodity futures can act as an effective diversification tool for Chinese asset management. It is found that the commodity futures can hedge both expected and unexpected inflation in China, and agricultural commodity futures are found to signal inflation 2 months beforehand. Finally, we explore the relationship between Chinese and US commodity futures markets in the years 2000 and 2010, and find that their interactions strengthen over time. Our research reveals an increasingly important role of the Chinese commodity futures market in both the domestic and the global economy. Some policy changes are suggested in response to this trend. 相似文献
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This paper evaluates whether globalization has increased the role of global factors in driving inflation in China. Unlike other published studies on the relationship between globalization and inflation, which mostly use Phillips curve models, this paper uses multivariate dynamic models to examine the dynamic interactions between globalization and inflation in China. Empirical results with quarterly data spanning from 1995 to 2012 show that the global output gap significantly affects the dynamics of inflation in China. In particular, the global output gap is superior to the domestic output gap in predicting domestic inflation. Impulse response and variance decomposition analyses reinforce this finding. Our results indicate that the central bank of China should take developments in global output into account in its monetary policy‐making process. 相似文献
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Are global inflation synchronization and the flattening of the Phillips curve across the globe related? The globalization hypothesis has been proposed to explain the relationship but questions remain on its quantitative role. Focusing on South Korea, one of Asia-Pacific supply chain hubs, this paper investigates the extent to which import prices affect domestic price inflation over the period between 2002 and 2020. Specifically, we conduct the regression decomposition method to identify major sources of variation in domestic inflation, followed by a subsequent set of comparative analyses across various inflation forecasting models. Our findings confirm a tight link from import prices to domestic prices, with a 10pp increase in IPI inflation passed onto PPI and CPI inflation by 3.9pp and 3.4pp over time, respectively. The main finding of this study is consistent with the recent global inflation surge that has been driven largely by imported food and energy price channels. 相似文献
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The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted international trade, leading countries to grapple with product shortages and firms to experience major supply chain issues. These challenges increased production costs and significantly contributed to lower trade and higher inflation. In this paper, we examine the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade through its two main trading partners: Japan and the US. By differentiating products by product type and processing status, we find evidence that products in the middle of the global supply chain were most affected by the pandemic and that the severity of the shock depends on the partner country’s role in the global supply chain. Additionally, we find that Chinese exports are more impacted than Chinese imports, regardless of processing status. These findings are largely consistent with economic theory. Understanding that the effects of global shocks vary by product and country will help guide policies that minimize supply chain disruptions. 相似文献
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通过对2000年以来我国的经济周期、投资周期、消费周期、信用周期、价格周期和对全球经济周期的分析,本文对当前中国宏观经济形势的判断和预测是:当前中国经济正处在经济周期的高位,投资要求拉动作用在减弱,产能释放所引起的生产过剩风险在增大,有可能导致经济从繁荣走向衰退;受供给面影响,通货膨胀仍会持续,但不表明经济出现过热。2008年中国经济仍将维持10.5%以上的增长速度,通货膨胀率在5%~6%之间。 相似文献
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Since the latter half of 2010, a new round of inflation has gradually been manifesting in China. The debate regarding whether excess money supply is responsible for this inflation has attracted scholars to investigate the effects of money growth on inflation. In this paper, we use correlation analysis to confirm the comovement between growth of monetary aggregates and inflation. We explore the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on inflation using the Markov regime‐switching model. The empirical results show that monetary policy can be more effective in curbing inflation in a high inflation state than in boosting the price level in a low inflation state. However, simply tightening the money supply might not be sufficient to suppress the price level. To this end, the Chinese Government should adopt other policies, such as supply stabilization policies, to help suppress the price level. Our study can help policy‐makers to determine the actual economic state and provides some policy implications for the current inflation. 相似文献
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Stuart D. Allen 《Atlantic Economic Journal》1980,8(2):13-19
Summary and Conclusion The paper has discussed the distinction between a strong and a weak version of the MBOP first made by Rabin and Yeager. Empirical evidence has been provided to refute the strong version of the MBOP and the closely related global monetarist school of thought contention that the law of one price is the major conduit through which worldwide inflation is transmitted. Switzerland provides a case of a country which imported inflation via both a direct price effect from abroad and continuous balance-of-payments surpluses. The evidence does not explicitly confirm the weak version of the MBOP because it is not a theory of worldwide inflation. The evidence does suggest that there are at least two transmission mechanisms for worldwide inflation. Economists should be careful not to interpret the MBOP as a unicausal theory of world inflation. 相似文献
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In this paper we reconsider the degree of international comovement of inflation rates. We use a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in a panel of countries into (i) a factor common to all inflation series and all countries, (ii) a factor specific to a given sub-section of the CPI, (iii) a country group-factor and (iv) a country-specific component. With its pyramidal structure, the model allows for the possibility that the global factor affects the country-group factor and other subordinated factors but not vice versa. Using quarterly data for industrialized and emerging economies from 1996 to 2011 we find that about two thirds of overall inflation volatility is due to country-specific determinants. For CPI inflation net of food and energy, the global factor and the CPI basket-specific factor account for less than 20 % of inflation variation. Only energy price inflation in industrial economies is dominated by common factors. 相似文献