Bilateral versus Multilateral Trade and Investment Liberalisation

To assess the welfare effects of bilateral versus multilateral trade and/or investment liberalisation in general equilibrium, we set up a three‐country and three‐factor knowledge‐capital model of trade and multinational activity. Numerical simulation results indicate that multilateral liberalisation tends to dominate bilateral liberalisation in welfare terms. A transition economy tends to prefer bilateral over multilateral liberalisation to avoid plant relocation. For similar reasons, a developed country may prefer bilateral over multilateral liberalisation, if the other economies exhibit big relative factor endowment differences.     

Trade Liberalisation and Economic Growth

There has been a long‐held belief that there is an association between economic growth and increased levels of international trade. However, more recent work has questioned this hypothesis and the re‐opening of the debate has identified two key areas of contention. One is the extent to which the effects of openness are conditional on factors omitted from the core regression relationship and hence how the hypothesis is tested. The other is the meaning and measurement of openness and liberalisation. This paper addresses both these areas by exploring the nature of heterogeneity in growth performance among liberalising countries using a difference‐in‐difference approach. The results show that, while in aggregate there appears to be a positive but small impact of trade liberalisation on growth, this masks a huge range of responses. Empirical analysis of this heterogeneity shows that a one‐size‐fits‐all policy is not necessarily the most effective, and suggests a case‐by‐case approach is more appropriate.     

论碳排放交易对WTO多边贸易体制的挑战

WTO货物贸易规则只适用于"有形货物的多边贸易",而碳排放配额是一种虚拟、无形的排放许可权。因此,碳排放配额不宜视为WTO意义上的货物,碳排放交易也不是WTO意义上的货物贸易。但是,如果我们将受到政府管制的碳排放交易视为影响国际货物贸易的措施,那么它可能构成对禁止数量限制原则的违反。此外,当碳排放交易突破国家的边界而进入到国际合作的领域,参与国通常会对合作伙伴提出相应的选择性要求,这与WTO的最惠国待遇原则显然是背道而驰的。     

遏制全球贸易保护主义:基于WTO多边贸易体制的价值评价

目前,全球正陷入20世纪30年代大萧条以来首次最为严重的全球性经济衰退,而且这场危机尚未见底,仍在蔓延,对实体经济的影响不断加深。在金融危机的影响下,由于缺乏推动自由贸易的政治意愿和民意基础,加之迫于利益集团游说和选民压力,贸易保护主义已在全球范围内全面回潮。此次金融危机衍生成为全球性贸易保护主义浪潮,在使WTO多边贸易体制经历着严峻时代考验的同时,也迫使WTO扛起维护贸易自由化形象的旗帜,在对抗和遏制贸易保护主义过程中发挥更多的价值。世界经济何时止跌回升,在无法企及通过技术革命和制度创新来激发大规模投资的情况下,作为世界经济调整和复苏的重要牵引力,全球贸易则义不容辞地肩负着拯救世界经济的首要使命,而保障全球贸易率先复苏的全球多边贸易体制及尽早结束多哈回合谈判理应成为各国拯救世界经济的共同期待。     

Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round

An applied general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of multilateral trade liberalisation in agriculture, with particular emphasis on developing countries. We use original data, and the model includes some specific features such as a dual labour market. Applied tariffs, including those under preferential regimes and regional agreements, are taken into account at the detailed product level, together with the corresponding bound tariffs on which countries negotiate. The various types of farm support are detailed, and several groups of developing countries are distinguished. Simulations give a contrasted picture of the benefits developing countries would draw from the Doha development round. The results suggest that previous studies have neglected preferential agreements and the binding overhang (in tariffs as well as domestic support), and have treated developing countries with a high level of aggregation and been excessively optimistic about the actual benefits of multilateral trade liberalisation. Regions like sub‐Saharan Africa are more likely to suffer from the erosion of existing preferences. The main gainers of the Doha Round are likely to be developed countries and Cairns Group members.     

多边贸易体制2010年年终盘点及2011年展望

2010年是世界经济缓慢复苏的一年。在全球失业率居高不下的阴霾中,多边贸易体制又经历了一年保护主义重压的考验,喜忧参半。本文以WTO秘书处最近公布的若干报告和开展的研讨会讨论内容为基础,对当前世界贸易环境和多边贸易体制下多哈回合的谈判情况予以综述,强调WTO成员需采纳秘书处意见、在多边贸易体制下理性看待全球贸易不平衡问题;需认识到历经9年的共同努力多哈回合谈判已经成果颇丰;需加强忧患意识、全力以赴在2011年完成多哈回合谈判。     

多边贸易体制60周年:成就和挑战

从GATT到WTO的变迁,标志着二战后建立的多边贸易体制迈进了一个新的里程碑。相对以GATT为核心的旧多边贸易体制而言,以WTO为核心的新体制在国际贸易规则方面作了重要修改和突破。WTO的目标是建立一个完整的、更可行的和持久的多边贸易体制,以包括GATT、以往自由化努力的结果以及乌拉圭回合多边贸易谈判的全部成果。但多边贸易体制已进入一个政策不稳定的时期并面临着新的挑战,多边贸易体制必须及时地适应世界经济的变化和应对新的挑战,在全球贸易自由化和多边贸易体制改革之间求得妥善的平衡。多哈谈判肩负着修复多边贸易体制信任危机和重塑权威的重任。推动多边贸易自由化谈判仍是WTO成员各方共同的现实选择。只有建立在制度性合作基础上的互利、共赢、共存、共生理念才是多边贸易体制赖以存在,并继续扮演全球贸易管理者和协调者角色的现实基础。     

中国服务贸易发展优势分析

当今国际产业转移的重心开始由制造业向服务业转移。服务贸易在各国经济发展中的作用日益明显。我国自改革开放以来服务业得到了迅猛发展，在世界服务贸易中的排名也比较靠前，但是总体处于竞争劣势，同发达国家相比差距很大。因此，我国应当把握住当前服务业国际产业转移的机会，大力发展服务贸易。     

双边抑或多边：论FTA对WTO多边贸易体制的影响

由于多哈发展议程陷入困境,使WTO的多边贸易体制正遭受前所未有的挑战。与WTO多边谈判举步维艰不同的是,自由贸易协定和区域性贸易安排正如火如荼进行。FTA在推动WTO多边贸易体制发展的同时也对其构成了威胁。但是由于FTA本身的局限性,以及当前国际金融危机之下的贸易保护主义盛行,WTO多边贸易体制需要不断的完善,以促进世界经济的恢复与发展。     

国内透明与WTO多边贸易体制

<正> 保持贸易政策透明是 WTO 多边贸易体制的一项基本原则,也是实现 WTO 宗旨和目标的重要手段。但从 GATT 到WTO,其透明原则实际上是一种国际透明,即一成员必须使其贸易政策为其它成员所了解和知悉,而并没有要求其贸易政策也为其国内的组织和公民所知悉。近二十年多年来,人们逐渐认识到,保持贸易政策的国内透明也是防止和消除贸易保护主义的重要手段。在一些国家已建立了专门的国内贸易     

WTO发布《世界贸易报告》喜迎多边贸易体制60华诞

<正>2008年1月1日,多边贸易体制将迎来她60周年生日的庆典。为了迎接这极具历史意义的时刻,WTO发布了《2007年世界贸易报告》,对GATT和WTO的起源、成就、所遇到的挑战和未来所承载的目标做了一个深入、全面的回顾。WTO总干事拉米称:"通过在多哈回合达     

全球多边贸易体制下的博弈策略与效益

经济全球化进程加深了国家之间的相互依存,各国进行着多边、区域、双边、单边各个层次的全方位政治经济博弈,国际和国内各种因素相互影响,参与各方最终均获得博弈收益。从结果来看,WTO成功地推进了全球贸易自由化的进程,虽然总体而言成员国都获取了收益,但利益分配并不均衡。从各成员贸易自由化的经验来看,不同的国家在不同的时期和不同的背景之下,其绩效大相径庭。为此,在对美国、欧盟、日本、印度等国在全球多边贸易体制下的博弈策略和效果进行比较的基础上,综述发展中经济体面临的挑战及"反边缘化"努力,提出了中国如何确保从多边博弈中获益。     

多边贸易体系与国际服务贸易的发展

近年来,国际服务贸易迅速发展,其增长速度超过了同期货物贸易的增长速度,引起了广泛的关注。本文阐明了多边贸易体系对国际服务贸易的推动作用,分析了WTO成立后国际服务贸易发展呈现的新特征,从而指出了我国作为发展中国家服务贸易的发展趋向。     

A Comparative Analysis of Multilateral Environmental Negotiations

Global environmental problems pose important diplomatic and legal challenges to the international community. The nature of these problems requires an unprecedented degree of international cooperation that is achieved through multilateral negotiation, which is often shaped by scientific uncertainty, the complexity of the issues, and the wide range of actors and interests. One way of analyzing and explaining this complicated process is through the use of comparative analysis. By breaking down the negotiating process into a series of phases and turning points, it becomes easier to analyze the roles of different actors, the management of issues, the formation of groups and coalitions, and the art of consensus building. This article uses comparative analysis to characterize, develop, and specify a model of the multilateral environmental negotiation process. The model is elaborated upon inductively through a comparative analysis of eleven cases of multilateral environmental negotiations. Statistical techniques are used to determine whether there is any relationship among attributes of the process (within the phases or at the turning points) and between these characteristics and outcomes.