Making Trade Policy in a New Democracy after a Deep Crisis: Indonesia

This paper examines the recent political economy of trade policy in Indonesia against the backdrop of two major events: the deep economic crisis of 1997–98, and the transition from three decades of rapid growth under an authoritarian regime to a weaker but democratic state. We investigate both international and domestic trade policy. The international trade policy regime has remained largely open, perhaps surprisingly in view of the unpopularity of liberal economic policies in the wake of the crisis and the forces advocating more protectionist policies. However, this openness is precarious, and lacks both institutional and community opinion support. In contrast, while remaining largely open at the international border, domestic barriers to trade have increased. This conjunction of economic crisis and weak, democratic states is a common phenomenon in the developing world, and the lessons for trade policy from the Indonesian experience over this decade are therefore relevant to many other countries.     

Preferences,rent destruction and multilateral liberalization: The building block effect of CUSFTA

If a free trade agreement (FTA) is characterized by the exchange of market access with a large and competitive trading partner, the agreement can cause a leakage of protectionist benefits to domestic industry from lobbying against external tariff cuts. This rent destruction effect of an FTA can free policy makers to be more aggressive in multilateral tariff cuts. We argue that the Canadian–US free trade agreement (CUSFTA) provides an ideal policy experiment to link this mechanism to the data. Exploring the determinants of Canada's tariff cuts at the 8-digit HS product level, we find that CUSFTA acted as an additional driver of Canadian multilateral tariff reductions during the Uruguay Round.     

Lohnimpulse und Wirtschaftswachstum — eine Simulationsanalyse für die Eurozone

Since the global financial and economic crisis, the question has arisen whether a policy of wage restraint could lead the European crisis countries back onto a more stable growth path. Using simulation calculations for varying wage setting strategies in Europe through 2030, the advantages and disadvantages of such a scenario can be discussed. One of the main findings is that temporary wage restraint in the economically weak countries only works as a means to regaining competitiveness if accompanied by other economic policies at the European level. These policies include higher wage growth in the economically stronger countries, transfer payments to foster investments and the acceptance of higher inflation rates in the eurozone.     

碳关税:新的绿色贸易壁垒抑或WTO环境保护豁免

有鉴于国际气候变化谈判和条约制定屡遭挫折这一事实,WTO现行法律规则和争端解决机制能够成为判断并纠正单边环境立法行使贸易保护主义之实的有力救济。在判定碳关税是否构成隐形的"绿色壁垒"时,GATT第20条(g)款以及前言部分的规定最有可能成为争端解决机构运用的根本性指标。要获得WTO环境保护条款的豁免,碳关税在设置和实施过程中需符合一系列严格的法律要求。同时,中国出口产品在遭遇发达国家碳关税壁垒时,亦可根据该条款有针对性的质证该措施的立法动机和具体实施环节。归根结底,中国应积极运用WTO法律规则和争端解决机制,保障本国出口产品市场的稳定性和可预期性。     

Conflicts between antidumping and antitrust law in the EC

Antidumping policy aims at protecting single firms or industries from distortions in trade with third countries. A broad definition of dumping can, however, lead to protectionist measures which conflict with antitrust policy. To what extent is this the case in the EC?     

Steuerpolitik als Mittel des Protektionismus?

Globalisation and the further deepening of economic integration that it involves are called into question from several angles. Protectionist measures can be seen in many countries. This paper discusses the issue of protectionist tax policy and links this debate to the current US tax reform.     

基于CGE模型定量探析碳关税对我国经济的影响

碳关税是发达国家在应对金融危机中为保持本国经济对其他国家设置的绿色壁垒。文章基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,在生产模块、对外贸易模块、收入支出模块、碳关税模块等模型相互嵌入式的构建,定量探析碳关税对我国对外贸易、总体经济、生态环境、不同省区经济的影响,进而得出碳关税政策对我国外贸、经济生产等方面造成较大负面影响,而在生态环境改善下影响甚微,其实质是一种保护本国经济、阻碍中国经济发展的贸易壁垒。     

Escaping a protectionist rut: Policy mechanisms for trade reform in a democracy

This paper analyzes the dynamics of trade policy reform under democracy. In an overlapping generations model, heterogeneous agents may acquire skills when young thereby determining the skill composition of their cohort. Current and anticipated trade policies influence education decisions and thus voters' trade policy preferences. We show that there may exist two political steady states: one protectionist and one liberal. Transition from the former to the latter can be achieved by government announcements, temporary educational subsidies, or tariff liberalization by trading partners, but generally not by transfer payments to adversely affected workers. We find additionally that reform is politically feasible only if the proposed liberalization is sufficiently large, suggesting that radical reform may be necessary for escaping a protectionist political rut.     

An Evaluation of Japan's First Safeguards Actions

Japan has been one of the major GATT/WTO member countries with relatively little experience in implementing protectionist measures. However, in April 2001, for the first time in its history, Japan invoked provisional safeguard measures against imports of Welsh onions, Shiitake mushrooms and Tatami mats mainly from China. This paper reviews and evaluates the chain of events regarding these safeguard actions, and considers the means by which Japan might be able to deal with its ‘trilemma’ policy problem involving how to coordinate the promotion of trade liberalisation, the administration of WTO‐consistent safeguards and responses to domestic political demands for protection. The paper first attempts to review the theoretical rationale for implementing safeguard measures and counterarguments against these measures. Second, it discusses the economic circumstances in which Japan implemented the safeguard measures and evaluates these measures critically from the standpoint of economic efficiency and the political economy interests involved. Finally, it concludes with a recommendation that the aforementioned ‘trilemma’ policy problem in Japan can be best addressed by means of the introduction of a ‘well‐institutionalised’ domestic programme to provide adjustment assistance to ameliorate the displacement resulting from import surges.     

Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Corporate Social Performance Across Cultures

ABSTRACT

In the context of a severe economic crisis, the objective of this research is to examine to what extent the economic crisis and austerity's measures have generated new marketing strategies in food companies. We develop a comparative analysis though multivariate analysis of variance, consisting of 10 food product categories across eight European countries, distinguishing between countries that needed financial support—the so-called rescued countries—and the countries with better economic development. Our findings show an increasingly trend toward increasing product prices and price per quantity in the rescued countries, along with an increase in the package content. Our findings suggest that food companies have been raising prices through the recession, as consumers continue to pare their spending and demand.     

The impact of the EC’s agricultural policy on its trade with developing countries

The European Community has frequently been blamed for impairing, through its highly protectionist agricultural policy, the development chances of Third World countries. Our article analyses whether, and to what extent, this reproach is justified.     

The political economy of non‐tariff measures

This paper examines the extent to which non‐tariff measures (NTM s) are set for protectionist purposes. Our main focus is on developing countries. Overall results show that NTM s reflect protectionist forces, in particular for those that have been subject to trade concerns at the World Trade Organization (WTO ). For the other measures, there is no evidence that protectionism is the driving force behind their adoption, suggesting that their determinants may be associated with legitimate goals such as consumer health and safety. Furthermore, transnational lobbying, defined as the participation of national business groups at the Ministerial Conferences—the highest authority of the WTO —is positively associated with the probability of adopting NTM s.     

The Role of GATT/WTO as a Commitment Device in the Presence of a Time Lag: Free Trade,Time‐consistent Tariff Policy and Market Size

We consider whether a free trade policy is superior to tariff policies in the presence of a time lag between production and trade decisions. We show that the preferable choice between a free trade policy and a time‐consistent tariff policy depends on the market size of the importing country. However, because a free trade policy itself is not necessarily credible in the presence of a time lag, the importing country requires an international organisation such as GATT/WTO as a commitment device. Accordingly, employing a non‐cooperative game approach, we analyse under what conditions becoming a member of such an international organisation is a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium and show that free trade under the GATT/WTO regime is Pareto improving for the importing and exporting countries.     

Free trade as ideology: fair trade as goal problems of an ideological approach in U.S. trade policy

Increased protectionist practices among the major industrialized countries present serious challenges to a free trade doctrine. Contradictions between theory and practice make the defense of a pure trade system increasingly untenable. Yet U.S. trade policy continues to be driven by an ideological commitment to such a system. Changing international economic and political conditions suggest that a new “fair trade” paradigm may be in the making. However, replacement of a “free” trade regime by a “fair” one will depend on how well the weaknesses of a free trade ideology can be overcome. These weaknesses are discussed and some suggestions are offered for clarifying policy thinking about free trade under contemporary conditions.     

论适度保护关税税率

面对日益加速的经济全球化进程,各国仍然在普遍使用关税措施来保护本国产业的发展.在这方面,发展中国家需要解决的问题是设定一个适度的保护关税税率,以让国内产业既有生存和发展的空间,同时又有足够的竞争压力来提高效率.根据国内与国际平均生产成本的差异来确定保护关税的税率是一个可行的办法.进一步削减关税是我国加入WTO后需要承担的义务,应当按照适度保护关税的原则把平均关税的税率稳定在一个合理的水平上,并根据国内不同产业的发展状况,提供必要而有效的保护.     

The economics of taxes with equivalent effects to tariffs

Developing countries are faced with the issue of tariff replacement at an early stage of their development, due to their increased commitments through Free Trade Arrangements with developed countries. As tariff replacement through VAT, or more sophisticated tools such as income tax, is neither practically nor economically desirable in these economies, this paper investigates the effects of an alternative replacement tax that only affects categories of goods not produced locally. This tax, denominated tax with equivalent effects to tariffs (TEET), is indeed a consumption tax as it concerns all goods, whether imported or potentially produced in the country. Based on a simple diagrammatic approach, the study shows that this tool tends to generate more welfare than tariffs if final prices of goods are left unchanged. It shows that a government can continue to maintain its revenues and increase the welfare of consumers through this fiscal replacement. Additionally, the political and economic reserves associated with this tool are discussed. The TEET are therefore useful mainly for small and non-diversified economies. It also remains that the use of this tool is, in practice, conditioned by the level of tolerance of developed countries, which tend to prohibit it in bilateral agreements with developing countries.     

WTO成员在金融危机中实施的“二反一保”和“中国特保”措施

2008年下半年以来,由于全球金融危机引发的经济衰退使全球贸易保护主义抬头。WTO成员在国际贸易萎缩的背景下纷纷采用贸易救济措施,导致反倾销、反补贴和保障措施的数量激增。WTO成员还针对中国频繁使用了特保措施。总体而言,与上世纪30年代经济大萧条比较,当前的贸易保护主义是低度的。WTO的法律框架也为贸易保护提供了依据,实施贸易保护措施是贸易自由化进程中的必要补充。但国际贸易的主流依然是贸易自由化。贸易自由化与经济增长之间的正相关系一直被经济学所证明。     

Trade and growth in the presence of distortions

Abstract

Tariffs and other policy distortions typically lower real national income relative to what it otherwise would have been for any given rate of factor accumulation. Even so, policy distortions may raise an economy's real measured growth rate and, somewhat deceivingly, give the impression that national welfare has benefited from things like tariff protection. This would be an incorrect conclusion. This paper discusses the issue of how policy distortions can affect the rate of growth for a small, open economy. For example, in the presence of exogenously given factor accumulation, a tariff can either raise or lower an economy's growth rate (measured by the change in the value of output at world prices), relative to the no-distortion growth rate. We also discuss the relevance of this result for tariff uniformity, ‘tariff jumping’ foreign direct investment, and the empirical literature on trade and growth. Finally, we use a numerical simulation model of Egypt to assess whether the costs of its tax distortions have increased or declined over time.     

The International Economic Crisis and the Crisis of Economics

The objective of this paper is to explore the correlation between the recent economic crisis and economic science and demystify the dogmatic conflict surrounding them. The paper starts by summarising the various arguments against economic science and economists, considered by many to be responsible for the crisis. Following that, an attempt is made, subject to space constraints, to objectively evaluate the individual arguments. Particular reference is made to the role of both policy and the markets in the crisis and the prospects for replacing the neoclassicist school, dominant until now, with the Keynesian. The analysis concludes that economic science did not cause the crisis; however, many of its theories did offer an intellectual background or some sort of academic legitimacy to both policy and the markets, and, in the case of the recent crisis, there was not only a failure of the dominant form of economic thought but, above all, of those two. The analysis shows that there is a problem of selective use of economic theories when it comes to practical economics and that, in order to be useful, economics ought to utilise knowledge from other disciplines and take more account of interdependencies between political and social phenomena.     

The national defense tariff argument reconsidered

What is a country's optimal trade policy when embargoes and other trade interruptions are threatening? In addressing this issue, the paper emphasizes the nature of adjustment impediments when an effective embargo forces the economy to alter its production pattern abruptly. A production subsidy on the imported good represents the optimal policy choice, a tariff being a second-best instrument. The tariff's superiority to free trade implies, in turn, that the conventional classification of the national defense tariff as a noneconomic argument is inappropriate since economic efficiency criteria alone can justify the tariff.