Universal basic income: A viable policy alternative?

Although the need for an efficient Roma integration policy is growing in Europe, surprisingly little robust scientific evidence regarding potential policy costs and expected benefits of alternative policy options has supported the policy design and implementation so far. The present study attempts to narrow this evidence gap and aims to shed light on long‐run economic, budgetary and fiscal effects of selected education and employment policies for the inclusion of the marginalised Roma in the EU. We employ a general equilibrium approach that allows us to assess not only the direct impact of alternative Roma integration policies but also to capture all induced feedback effects. Our simulation results suggest that although Roma integration policies would be costly for the public budget, in the medium‐to‐long run, economic, budgetary and fiscal benefits may significantly outweigh short‐ to medium‐run Roma integration costs. Depending on the integration policy scenario and the analysed country, the full repayment of the integration policy investment (positive net present value) may be achieved after 7 to 9 years. In terms of the GDP, employment and earnings, the universal basic income scenario may have the highest potential impacts, particularly in the medium‐to‐long run.     

ARE FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND STABLE BALANCED GROWTH EQUILIBRIUM SIMULTANEOUSLY ATTAINABLE?

This paper presents an examination of the sustainability of national debt and economic growth, and the growth effects of government debt and income taxation. Results show sustainability of national debt and economic growth under the primary surplus rule. Fiscal policy and balanced growth are compatibly sustainable if and only if the government sets a long‐run target debt/GDP (gross domestic product) ratio within a reasonable range. Results also show that a rise in the long‐run debt/GDP ratio reduces the balanced growth rate. Based on these two results, the long‐run debt/GDP ratio is greater than zero if the government aims to maximize the balanced growth rate.     

Factor allocation,economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China

On the basis of development accounting techniques and a factor misallocation framework, we use panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2013 to assess how factor allocation affects economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China. In particular, we decompose economic growth into three parts, namely sector productivity (SP ), factor market efficiency (FME ) and factor endowment (FE ). We then conduct counterfactual analyses to investigate the short and long‐run roles of factor allocation in the income distribution across provinces. The results show that SP , FME and FE can explain 23%, 8.5% and 68.5% of economic growth, while labour, capital and energy reallocation account for aggregate productivity growth of about 47%, −4.8% and −0.1%. Furthermore, when the factors are efficiently allocated, transferring labour (capital, energy) from agriculture (service, industry) to the other sectors will increase the income per capita by 29.5% and 42.5% in the short and long term. Meanwhile, efficient factor allocation accounts for 32% and 29.7% of aggregate productivity and reduces the income variation across provinces by 25.5% and 23% in the short and long run, respectively.     

Are Human and Social Capital Linked? Evidence from India

This paper develops a two‐period Overlapping Generations (OLG) model of endogenous growth in which a two‐way relationship between social capital and human capital is studied. In order to illustrate the impact of public policies, the model is calibrated using the data for a low‐income country, India and a sensitivity analysis is reported under different parameter values. Based on the numerical analysis, this paper focuses on possible trade‐offs in the allocation of government spending between two productive components, that is, social capital‐related activities and education. The results of this paper show that an increase in the share of public spending on social capital‐related activities through a cut in spending on education or vice versa entails trade‐offs. However, the trade‐off fades away and the net impact on long‐run growth turns out to be positive for different parameter values in the case where a higher share of spending on education is financed by a cut in spending on social capital‐related activities but a policy in improving social capital accumulation at the expense of education is always detrimental to long‐run growth.     

财政分权、经济增长与外贸依存度——基于1978-2007年我国改革开放30年数据的实证分析

根据我国1978-2007年的数据,运用协整、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数研究了我国财政分权、经济增长对外贸依存度的动态影响。研究发现:在长期内,财政分权会提高我国的外贸依存度,而短期内财政分权对外贸依存度的作用不显著;以人均GDP衡量的经济增长,在短期内可提高外贸依存度水平,而在长期中却会降低外贸依存度。分析表明,财政分权引致的地方政府为经济增长而产生的鼓励FDI和出口的激励,经济增长及其促成的FDI及贸易升级、产业结构调整、内需导向型经济增长模式,是财政分权、经济增长和外贸依存度之间动态关系产生的内在逻辑。     

External Asymmetries in the Euro Area and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment

Soon after the introduction of the common currency, a divide emerged between two groups in the Euro area: one comprised of the North European countries achieving external surpluses and the other of the South European countries with large external deficits. This paper shows that different patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows across the Euro area countries contributed to this divergence. Our theoretical framework shows that if the economy is relatively capital‐intensive in the production of traded (non‐traded) output, FDI will be channelled in greater proportions to the traded (non‐traded) sector, thus improving (deteriorating) the trade balance. Focusing on ten Euro area countries over the period 1980 to 2009, we establish a positive (negative) long‐run effect of FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South). In the North, the positive effect stems from the traded sector FDI inflows that were significantly higher in comparison with the South, both before and after the EMU. In contrast, in the South, the increased FDI inflows in the post‐EMU era were dominated by investments in the non‐traded sector. When industry‐level data are employed, a positive (negative) long‐run effect of manufacturing (non‐manufacturing) FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South) is further established.     

A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change

This paper examines whether there is a long‐run stable equilibrium relationship between advertising and sales across the market segments of the UK car industry over the period 1971–2001. In order to achieve this goal, we allow for structural breaks in the series using cointegration techniques. The results show the existence of long‐run equilibrium relationships in all six market segments, although in four of them the relationship is not stable. In general, one structural change is detected in the late 1970s and another in the early 1990s, coinciding with two economic recessions. When we do not account for structural changes, the estimated long‐run elasticities of advertising on sales are seen to be substantially downwardly biased. Finally, a noticeable increase is observed in long‐run elasticities in most car market segments during the nineties with respect to previous decades.     

Autonomous demand,Harrodian instability and the supply side

A recent literature introduces autonomous demand as the driver of long‐run economic growth and as a stabilizing force that tames Harrodian instability. The argument is unconvincing. The stabilizing effect is modest for plausible parameter values and more importantly, it is questionable whether any components of aggregate demand can be viewed as autonomous in the long run. By contrast, models that include the supply side (the labor market) and/or economic policy can address Harrodian instability and produce level and growth effects that resemble those derived in the literature on autonomous demand.     

Understanding the Relationship between Inflation and Growth: A Wavelet Transformation Approach in the Case of Bangladesh

This paper re‐examines the relationship between inflation and economic growth in developing countries. Both the theoretical and the empirical literature are extremely divided on this issue. We apply a relatively new empirical technique – the continuous wavelet transform – to Bangladesh. Bangladesh is of interest because of its remarkable economic growth and poverty reduction during the last 30 years in combination with, for a developing country, a controlled inflation. The wavelet analysis is a contribution because it displays how the correlation and the lead–lag structure between variables change over timescales, taking into account that growth and inflation can follow several different cycles. Comovements between variables are generally studied in the time domain. Results from studies in the time‐domain study can be sensitive to the frequency of observations. On the other hand, studies in the frequency domain are not easily translated into time domains that can be associated with economic policies. The wavelet methodology finds a balance between time and frequency domains. Our study finds that growth Granger causes inflation at all frequency scales, starting from the short run to the very long run. Inflation, on the other hand, Granger causes growth in the long run but not in the short run. This result has implications for Bangladesh, and as such for similar developing countries, where some policymakers believe that inflation must be kept at very low levels for sustained economic growth.     

The Developmental Impact of the Asian Drivers on Senegal

(1250) Eric Hazard, Lotje De Vries, Mamadou Alimou Barry and Alexis Aka Anouan, with Nicolas Pinaud African countries have deepened their commercial and diplomatic relationships with China and India, and Senegal has been no exception. The historical context of the relationships, however, has differed. While Senegal already enjoyed a long‐lasting and stable relationship with India, relations with China have been more erratic, in particular on account of Dakar’s recognition of the Republic of China. We analyse trade and investment patterns with the Asian Drivers and how Senegal can form a relationship with these two superpowers that can contribute to its national development objectives. Contrary to other countries in Africa, Senegal is not a large producer of natural resources other than phosphates and fisheries and its consumer market is also rather limited. We find scarce evidence of large‐scale FDI flows and the amount of official development assistance is similarly anecdotic. For China and India, Senegal is of some interest as a logistical and commercial centre, rather than a production base for regional or foreign markets. Over the longer run, as these two countries are likely to become more important for Senegal simply on account of their increasing relevance on the world stage, we argue that it is essential that the authorities take these factors into account in developing policies that cater for economic development and social priorities.     

Changing consumption patterns in rural Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Despite rapid urbanization, more than 75% of the people still live in rural areas. The density of the rural population is also one of the highest in the world. Being a poor and low‐income country, however, Bangladesh's main challenge is to eradicate poverty by increasing equitable income. The gross domestic product of Bangladesh is growing steadily, and the country has outperformed many low‐income countries in terms of several social indicators. Bangladesh has achieved the Millennium Development Goal of eliminating gender disparity in primary and secondary school enrolment. A sharp decline in child and infant mortality rates, increased per capita income, and improved food security have placed Bangladesh on the track to achieving the status of a middle‐income country in the near future. All these developments have influenced the consumption patterns of the country. This study explored the consumption scenario of rural Bangladesh. Data were collected through direct observations and semi‐structured interviews. Information regarding the consumption of food, clothing, housing, education and medical facilities were collected, and qualitative methods were applied to the data analysis. The findings of this study suggested that the consumption patterns of rural Bangladeshis are changing over time along with economic and social development.     

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND NATURAL RESOURCE BOOMS: A STRUCTURALIST PERSPECTIVE

In this paper we present a structuralist two‐sector model on economic development, structural change and natural resource booms. We describe a multiple equilibria scenario, in which manufacturing development is the main source of economic progress. Natural resource booms, by modifying the productive structure of the economy, may set destabilizing forces. De‐industrialization processes may take place, confining developing countries in poverty traps. Public intervention in the economic sphere, both through short‐run macro policies and through long‐run development strategies, may help to free the economy from poverty traps and to foster the development process.     

International Tourism,Higher Education and Economic Growth: The Case of North Cyprus

This study investigates the long‐run equilibrium relationship between international tourism, higher education growth, real income growth and the direction of causality among these variables for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is not recognised by any country other than Turkey. Results reveal that international tourism and higher education are in a long‐run equilibrium relationship with real income growth; international tourism and higher education have an inelastic, yet positively significant impact on real income growth in the long‐run period. Finally, the results of the present study reveal that both the tourism‐led growth and the higher education‐led growth hypotheses are confirmed for North Cyprus.     

What Explains Cross‐country Industry Growth Patterns? Trade,Development and the Equity Financing Channel

We test theories that examine how economic and financial development affect cross‐country industry growth patterns. Finance theory suggests that financial development affects growth by lowering the cost of external finance. This has the implication that industries in more finance‐hungry sectors will grow faster in countries where financial markets are more developed. In addition, if financing constraints are lessened when stock market performance is high, firms in sectors more dependent on external finance should grow more rapidly following periods of good stock market performance. Trade and development theories, on the other hand, imply that a country's product‐mix and the pattern of industrial growth reflect which stage of development it is in and its factor endowments. Thus, one implication of trade/development theories is that countries that are close to each other in terms of GDP per capita should have similar patterns of industrial growth. Our tests find support for each of these theories.     

Foreign Exchange Reserves and Import Demand: Evidence from Latin America

This paper investigates the impact of foreign reserves, domestic real income and relative import prices on import demand for seven Latin American countries. We differentiate empirically between the short‐run and long‐run impact of reserves, income and prices on imports. The paper has three main results. First, we show that there exists a unique long‐run relationship among real imports, real income, relative import prices and real foreign exchange reserves for all seven countries. Second, we find that increases in foreign exchange reserves exert a significant positive effect on import demand in both the long run and the short run in all countries. However, the economic impact of foreign exchange reserves is rather small. Finally, we find that the long‐ and short‐run impact of real domestic income on import demand is positive as well, while the effect of relative prices is negative.     

新开放条件下外资、外贸与长三角区域经济增长关系研究

本文以新开放条件为背景,采用协整理论、脉冲响应函数和Granger因果检验方法就外资、外贸与长三角区域经济增长关系进行了实证分析,结果表明:(1)无论是短期,还是长期,FDI和出口都推动了经济增长,而进口只在短期内促进了经济增长,长期促进作用并不显现。(2)在短期内,FDI的经济增长效应和贸易效应存在较大的差异,前者明显大于后者。(3)FDI、出口与经济增长存在长期双向因果关系,进口只是经济增长的短期单向原因。文章最后提出相应的对策建议。     

独资与合资方式的技术溢出效果比较

对外直接投资技术溢出效应对发展中国家经济发展十分重要,跨国公司投资方式不同对技术溢出效应会有明显差异。已有的研究认为合资在东道国的技术溢出比独资好,但是本文的实证研究表明,不论短期还是长期分析,独资比合资在我国的技术溢出效果更好。中国的改革开放演进使跨国公司战略调整和东道国经济基础发展更有利于独资方式技术溢出效果的显现,这种技术溢出效果差异是通过影响技术溢出机制和渠道的作用而产生的。     

出口拓张政策对我国宏观经济的双重效应分析

本文结合中国及世界宏观经济发展 ,分析了全球化策略中出口拓张政策的双重效应 .说明其在短期内能给所在国带来一定收益 ,但在长期中的负面影响不可低估 ,对其过分的依赖容易导致国民经济的负增长。     

Accumulation,Structural Change and External Balances in a World with Internationally Traded Environmental Assets

Environmental literature has largely neglected macroeconomic considerations, especially open economy and asset market ones. This paper develops a small country framework that seeks to address these issues. Medium‐ and long‐run aspects are explored using standard trade and portfolio balance models, modified to incorporate trade in claims on non‐renewable resources (environmental assets). In the medium run, changes in environmental regulations, saving behavior and other variables affect the current account, investment and composition of output. In the long run, both the sectoral intensity of environment use and the structure of the economy are affected, as are the capital stock and the global distribution of claims on resources.     

Cross‐Country Determinants of Early‐Stage Necessity and Opportunity‐Motivated Entrepreneurship: Accounting for Model Uncertainty

Model uncertainty is one of the most pervasive challenges in the social sciences. Cross‐country studies in entrepreneurship have largely ignored this issue. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of 44 possible determinants of early‐stage opportunity‐motivated entrepreneurship (OME) and necessity‐motivated entrepreneurship (NME) that are broadly classified in four groups: (1) economic variables, (2) formal institutions, (3) cultural values, and (4) legal origins and geography. The results, which are based on a representative world sample of up to 73 countries, suggest that institutional variables associated with the principles of economic freedom are most robustly correlated with OME and NME. Our findings also identify net income inequality and Scandinavian legal origins as weakly robust predictors of both types of entrepreneurial activity. Furthermore, we find that log GDP per capita is only a weakly robust predictor of NME, but not OME. We discuss implications for future research.