中美贸易不平衡的均衡、错位及其矫正的实证研究

利用1995-2010年1季度数据,研究中美贸易不平衡的均衡水平、错位程度及其矫正机制。研究发现:长期看,美国经济增长1%、中国经济增长1%、人民币对美元实际汇率贬值1%,导致中国对美贸易顺差分别增加4.46%、0.81%、0.93%;2005年我国的汇率制度改革导致我国对美贸易顺差小幅度增加。中美贸易收支错位的自我修正机制存在,自我修正功能较强。短期看,人民币对美元实际汇率升值、我国货币供给减少、美国政府支出增加、人民币对美元名义汇率贬值,导致我国对美贸易顺差增加。中美贸易不平衡的错位是经常性的,2009-2010年1季度,中美贸易不平衡低于均衡水平。政策含义是:积极转变我国的经济增长方式;长期坚持人民币对美元适度升值;策略性地应对来自美国的人民币升值压力。     

人民币汇率、国内外经济状况与我国贸易收支——基于Markov区制转换VAR模型的实证研究

本文采用1994年到2010年的季度数据,通过将贸易收支分解为一般贸易和加工贸易,运用MSIH(2)-VARX(1)模型研究了在人民币汇率存在升值压力和存在贬值压力两种区制下,人民币汇率和国内外经济状况对我国一般贸易收支和加工贸易收支的影响,并在模型中分析了两次金融危机对我国贸易收支的影响。实证结论表明:(1)1994年第三季度到1998年年底,以及2004年第四季度到2008年第四季度,人民币实际有效汇率存在升值压力;1999年第一季度到2004年第三季度,以及2009年第一季度到2010年第四季度,人民币实际有效汇率存在贬值压力;(2)2008年金融危机对贸易收支的影响要大于1998年金融危机;(3)人民币实际有效汇率对一般贸易收支的影响不存在J曲线效应,而对加工贸易收支的影响存在J曲线效应,但综合起来,人民币实际有效汇率变动对总体贸易收支不产生影响。国内外经济状况对我国贸易收支的影响并不是很显著;(4)人民币实际有效汇率变动将导致我国经济增长的负向响应,即人民币实际有效汇率升值不利于我国经济增长。     

中美贸易收支的人民币汇率弹性及政策启示

金融危机之后,中美贸易顺差成为美国贸易保护主义的主要借口,人民币升值的压力日益增加。此背景下,准确测度中美贸易收支的人民币汇率弹性,关系"后危机时代"中国对外贸易政策以及汇率政策的选择。实证分析表明,中国对美国出口的人民币汇率富有弹性,而对美国进口与人民币汇率不相关。因此,对中国政府来说,应该顶住外部压力,尽可能保持人民币汇率的稳定,促进贸易、就业和经济增长;对美国来说,人民币汇率不是其贸易逆差的根源,人民币升值的结果只能产生贸易转移效应,并不能缓解其逆差状况,过度和偏激地施压人民币升值实非明智之举。     

Can Africa compete with China in manufacturing? The role of relative unit labour costs

This paper examines sub‐Saharan Africa's (SSA ) bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with China. We document an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of bilateral trade in that China overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to SSA and almost exclusively imports primary products in return. Our principal means of assessing the competitiveness of SSA 's manufacturing sector vis‐à‐vis China are measures of relative unit labour costs (RULC ). We find that African RULC s declined over the 2000s as China's wages rose faster than Chinese productivity while the reverse was true for the SSA countries in our sample. Nevertheless, RULC s vis‐à‐vis China remain very high for many SSA countries. High RULC s along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most SSA countries are unlikely to be competitive in labour‐intensive manufacturing any time soon.     

供给因素、结构变化、汇率与我国的双边贸易

基于考虑供给因素、结构变化的出口决定模型,采用两方程方法和单方程方法研究了外国GDP、中国GDP、结构变化、汇率与我国17个双边贸易之间的关系。研究表明:供给因素、结构变化对我国双边贸易有重要影响,供给因素对我国与美、澳、马、巴、新、泰、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性,结构变化对我国与德、印、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性,汇率对中国对15个贸易伙伴国出口与进口的影响存在严重的不对称性。采用出口除进口表示贸易收支做法的单方程方法的研究存在严重错误。经济增长模式对双边贸易有重要影响,人民币升值对我国双边贸易不平衡有一定的矫正作用,对改善我国双边贸易不平衡的国别分布有较大的积极作用。     

汇率变化与贸易平衡——基于中国与亚太主要贸易体的研究

基于中国与13个亚太主要贸易体的双边贸易数据以及最新的面板协整计量方法,本文对贸易平衡与汇率变动之间的关系进行了分析。研究结果表明,人民币相对于各贸易伙伴的升值,在有限程度上能够减少我国的贸易盈余,改善伙伴国的贸易平衡状况。然而数据表明,贸易伙伴国贸易收支的恶化,主要还是由于其经济总量扩张导致对"中国制造"需求增长所致,汇率对于贸易平衡的影响要有限得多。对于美国等发达国家,要减少其相对于中国的贸易赤字,关键是要逐步取消对华技术产品的出口限制,试图通过逼迫人民币升值来改善其贸易平衡状况的想法忽略了问题的本质所在。     

Impact of Trade on Canada's Employment,Skill and Wage Structure

Using newly constructed data for 88 Canadian industries (including primary, manufacturing and services), for 15 years (1992–2007), we analyse the impact of trade and technological change on labour demand, skill structure, wage premiums and welfare in Canada. Results show that export growth has no impact, whereas import growth reduces employment growth. But contrary to popular belief, Canada's job loss due to imports has been very small, only about 6,000 persons annually. China's negative impacts are more pronounced in industries where the share of information and communication technology (ICT) capital is rising fast and among low R&D intensive industries. In terms of skill change, ICT use and real exchange rate appreciation are biased towards high skill workers. Imports from the United States and China are skill‐neutral, whereas imports from Mexico are skill‐upgrading. Overall, neither export nor import growth has an impact on the wage rate. However, had there been no imports from China, the annual wage growth rate of high skill manufacturing workers would have been 0.6 per cent higher. Between 1992 and 2007, there was an annual net gain from the rise in imports at about 0.4 per cent of GDP, in addition to the gains obtained from 1992 import levels vis‐à‐vis autarky.     

论产业转移对人民币汇率的影响及我国贸易结构的调整--兼论我国中性贸易战略

本文建立了产业转移影响实际汇率变动的理论模型,并检验了20世纪60年代以来日本的实际汇率、80年代以来人民币实际汇率的变动及我国贸易特化系数,认为巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应所认为的贸易品劳动生产率降低带来的实际汇率上升在中国是存在的.针对我国加工贸易比重过大的现实,本文提出应当在及时调整我国贸易结构的基础上合理重估人民币汇率.     

基于马歇尔—勒纳条件的中国茶叶贸易收支研究

马歇尔—勒纳条件是分析汇率变动对贸易收支影响的重要理论。本文采用我国1986～2008年茶叶进出口的序列数据,通过分析我国对不同经济体的茶叶进出口需求弹性,并构建实际有效汇率等因素与茶叶贸易收支的计量模型,研究了我国茶叶进出口与马歇尔—勒纳条件间的满足关系。研究表明,我国与不同国家的茶叶贸易收支受汇率变动的影响不同;就我国茶叶对外贸易总体而言,茶叶进口价格下降会增加进口额,出口价格上升会增加出口额;而人民币升值会改善我国茶叶贸易收支,人民币贬值会恶化我国茶叶贸易收支,且进出口需求弹性之和小于1。因此,我国茶叶贸易收支反向符合马歇尔—勒纳条件,这为汇率波动背景下科学处理茶叶贸易问题提供了重要的理论指导。     

Real Exchange Rate Targeting,Macroeconomic Performance and Sectoral Income Distribution in Developing Countries

This paper uses a two-sector general equilibrium model to analyse both steady-state and stochastic dynamic effects of two real exchange rate targeting policies: a constant-target, and a band-target rule. In the model, targeting is implemented by imposing a stochastic fully-rebatable tax on the consumption of non-traded goods. The first result is that when comparing only steady states, a real exchange rate appreciation favours labour and capital in the non-traded sector, while factors in the traded sector are favoured by depreciations. A second result is that both rules reduce the volatility of investment and the trade balance. The third key result is that in the stochastic economy sectoral income distribution outcomes depend on the design of the constant and band-target rules. In particular, a variety of outcomes may be generated depending on the magnitude of the constant target, or the amplitude of the band, relative to the volatility of productivity shocks.     

Mind the Gender Wage Gap – the Impact of Trade and Competition on Sectoral Wage Differences

This paper examines differences between women’s and men’s wages in 18 selected OECD countries in the period 1970 to 2005. The study is based on 12 manufacturing sector‐ and skill‐specific sets of panel data on the gender wage gap. We apply a system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to the extended version of the conditional gender wage gap convergence equation, controlling for sector concentration and industry‐specific measures of openness using a difference‐in‐difference approach: trade‐affected concentrated sectors versus trade‐affected competitive sectors. The results indicate that: (i) an increase in sector concentration is associated with wage gap growth; (ii) both import and export penetration are associated with a reduction of the high‐skill gender wage gap growth in concentrated industries; (iii) there is evidence of a widening impact of trade on the medium and low‐skill occupational gender wage gap growth in less competitive industries; (iv) institutional regulations of the labour market have an impact on the development of the gender wage gap: for highly‐skilled labour an increase in labour market regulation raises the growth of the gender wage gap, while for medium‐ and low‐skilled workers, it lowers it.     

日德本币升值下的政策得失及对我国的启示

在本币升值背景下,日本与德国采取了不同的应对政策。德国首先着眼于国内宏观经济的稳定,放开汇率的波动,从而更好地保持了国民经济的稳定与增长;而日本试图阻止和缓解日元升值压力,其结果却是日元持续急剧升值,并造成了日本高通货膨胀和泡沫经济。综观日本、德国汇率波动的历史可以得到以下启示：人民币汇率升值是必然趋势;坚持货币政策的独立性十分重要;在坚持货币政策的独立性的同时,实现缓慢渐进式汇率改革;区域货币合作有利于区域内强国减少投机资本冲击,减少汇率升值对贸易品部门的负面影响;加快经济发展战略的转型,促使内外经济均衡发展。     

China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?1

China is criticised for keeping its dollar exchange rate fairly stable when it has a large trade (saving) surplus. This criticism is misplaced in two ways. First, no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. Second, since 1995, the stable yuan/dollar rate has anchored China’s price level and facilitated counter cyclical fiscal policies that have smoothed its high real GDP growth at a remarkable 9 to 11 per cent per year. With its now greater GDP, China displaces Japan as the largest economy in East Asia – but with a much stronger stabilising influence on East Asian neighbours from its higher economic growth and more stable dollar exchange rate. Now, an ever larger China is an essential stabiliser for the world economy – as exemplified by its prompt and effective fiscal response to the global credit crunch of 2008–09. However, cumulating financial distortions – in China and the United States – threaten to undermine China’s growth and its stabilising influence on the rest of the world.     

Optimal borrowing constraints and growth in a small open economy

Chinese high growth has been accompanied by government restrictions on international borrowing (capital controls). In this paper, we ask: are such restrictions a useful policy tool to facilitate growth? We provide a theory of borrowing constraints on households as a tool to correct a learning-by-doing externality. Borrowing constraints operate as a policy tool through two channels: (i) increasing labor supply and (ii) reallocating labor towards traded goods. We find that welfare gains are closest to that of the First-Best Planner allocation when the externality is not too large. We compute the sequence of optimal constraints along the growth path and show how the use of this policy tool contributes to repressed wages, current account balance, and slow real exchange rate appreciation.     

Optimal borrowing constraints and growth in a small open economy

Chinese high growth has been accompanied by government restrictions on international borrowing (capital controls). In this paper, we ask: are such restrictions a useful policy tool to facilitate growth? We provide a theory of borrowing constraints on households as a tool to correct a learning-by-doing externality. Borrowing constraints operate as a policy tool through two channels: (i) increasing labor supply and (ii) reallocating labor towards traded goods. We find that welfare gains are closest to that of the First-Best Planner allocation when the externality is not too large. We compute the sequence of optimal constraints along the growth path and show how the use of this policy tool contributes to repressed wages, current account balance, and slow real exchange rate appreciation.     

Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Trade Flows: Evidence from Commodity Trade between the United States and the United Kingdom

Previous studies that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows employed aggregate trade data and standard estimation techniques. They provided mixed results. In this paper we use disaggregated import and export data for 177 commodities traded between the United States and the United Kingdom to investigate whether volatility of the real bilateral dollar–pound exchange rate has any detrimental effect on trade flows at the commodity level. Additionally, we employ the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error‐correction modelling that is suitable for the models used mostly because it does not require pre‐unit‐root testing and variables in the model could be stationary, non‐stationary or a combination of the two. In most trade flow models estimated, we found a negative effect of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade.     

China's exports,export tax rebates and exchange rate policy

This paper examines the relationship between China's exports, export tax rebates and exchange rate policy. It offers an explanation for why China's exports continued to rise under RMB real appreciations during the Asian financial crisis. Based on a traditional export demand model, we test our hypothesis that the counteracting effects of China's export tax rebate policy have diminished the effectiveness of real exchange rates in facilitating the resolution of trade imbalances under the current pegged exchange rate regime. We find evidence that RMB real appreciations during the crisis negatively affected China's exports, but the negative effects were mitigated by the positive effects of export tax rebates. We also find evidence of a long‐run relationship between China's exports and the other explanatory variables. The empirical evidence suggests that under the pegged exchange rate regime with limited adjustments, real exchange rate movements alone cannot resolve China's external imbalances. The policy implication of this study is that China needs to redirect its decades‐long export‐oriented development strategy to one that emphasises domestic demand‐oriented development and to replace the current pegged exchange rate regime with a market‐oriented more flexible exchange rate regime.     

我国加工贸易效应的实证分析——基于经济增长、产业竞争力的视角

本文在对中国加工贸易企业行为特征分析的基础上,实证检验了加工贸易与中国经济增长、产业国际竞争力之间的关系。研究发现加工贸易促进了中国经济的增长,但对经济增长的贡献率不仅低于国内消费和固定资产投资,而且也低于一般贸易;加工贸易提升了我国产业国际竞争力,但其作用明显低于研发投入。基于上述结论,文章最后提出政策建议。     

Who Gains From Nominal Devaluation? An Empirical Assessment of Euro‐area Exports and Imports

In early 2013, rumours about the euro‐appreciation gained momentum, which may lead to decreases in exports and increases in imports of the member states. Therefore, we investigate the impact of changes in the nominal euro exchange rate vis‐à‐vis major currencies on export and import performance of nine different euro‐area countries. To disentangle the ‘true’ equilibrium elasticities Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE) system error correction models (SSECM) are estimated for nominal exchange rate changes versus the rest of the world or other major currencies. To differentiate between price level changes and changes of the nominal exchange rate, a country's export and import equation is estimated using separately the nominal rate and the relative price/unit labour cost as regressors. Results of Wald tests indicate that assuming both variables to have the same influence on exports and imports is misleading. Whether the relative price/unit labour costs elasticities are high or low depends crucially on which indicator is chosen, while the effect of nominal exchange rate changes can be estimated robustly for all countries in the sample. In particular, France and Spain are hit by a euro‐appreciation since their exports are highly exchange rate elastic. However, for France, this effect is at least partly offset by an also negative exchange rate elasticity of imports.     

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on the Trade of Educational Services

This article finds that high levels of real exchange rate volatility between two trading partners significantly decrease the amount of educational services traded. Many academic institutions are actively looking to expand exports of educational services as a means of increasing revenues. Internal policies that reduce real exchange rate uncertainty may help encourage trade of educational services between countries where volatility is high. The discovery that real exchange rate volatility serves as a significant barrier to attracting educational export opportunities to certain countries underscores an obstacle that should and/or could be addressed as academic institutions strive to expand their international enrollments.