Capital controls,capital flows and external crises: evidence from India

Despite the widespread use of capital controls, India has experienced several balance of payments crises. This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India's external imbalances and analyses the optimality of its capital flows. We use two approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls, and a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises. The results indicate that India's intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.     

为什么中国经济会失衡——权力配置失衡下的经济失衡

为什么中国经济会失衡？已有文献分别从收入分配失衡、储蓄过度、资源要要素价格扭曲、计划生育政策所带来的扭曲等方面对此进行了解释。然而,本文认为中国经济失衡的本质在于收入分配的失衡,而决定收入分配失衡的原因在于国内的权力配置失衡和全球的权力配置失衡。国内的权力失衡会导致资源和收入向政府、国有垄断企业、资本所有者、企业主等经济主体的超额分配,使国内收入分配失衡。收入的失衡就会引致中国低消费、高储蓄、高投资和高出口。而美元霸权又导致全球资源向美国配置,并使中国的出口导向战略得以维持,从而加剧了中国的贸易和资本顺差。     

Der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss

Persistent and significant current account imbalances are often seen as one of the greatest threats to the global economy and a catalyst for protectionist tendencies. Germany is often criticised for running a high surplus. However, economists disagree about whether and to what extent the German current-account surplus is excessive and which policy measures could help to rebalance the current account. The authors argue that the German current-account surplus is a global phenomenon and hence requires in addition to economic policies that could stimulate investment activity in Germany an internationally coordinated approach. Taking into account the specific circumstances of a country, the WTO could act as an institutional framework to deal with global imbalances. In particular the WTO’s Trade Policy Review Mechanism could be further developed into a forum for coordinating members’ trade policy and for agreeing on reciprocal measures among members. The concrete design could be based on other established international mechanisms, such as the European Semester.     

巨灾情境下政府财政支出结构变动对我国宏观经济的动态效应研究--基于三部门DSGE模型的数值分析

基于动态随机一般均衡理论( DSGE),从罕见灾难的角度出发,分析政府投资结构变动对我国宏观经济平稳发展产生的潜在风险。研究表明,政府投资性支出过度无论在单一财政支出形式还是复合型财政支出形式下对灾难经济体均表现出显著的负效应,其对私人投资的挤出效应加剧了我国经济的风险,而服务性支出以及其他支出形式在灾难经济体中的影响相对较小。同时,通过区分TFP 灾难、资本灾难和双重灾难三种情形,分别探讨不同灾难类型对宏观经济的影响,研究发现,双重灾难对宏观经济的整体冲击远大于TFP灾难和资本灾难对经济的影响; TFP灾难与资本灾难各有侧重, TFP灾难对企业产出、居民消费及私人投资的冲击最小,资本灾难对就业的影响最弱。     

Is the Global Economy Headed for a Lost Decade? A European Perspective

In the 15 years leading up to the recent crisis, the world economy's exceptional performance was driven by globalisation, rapid, export-driven growth in emerging markets, debt-fuelled consumption in major advanced economies, and a benign financial and macroeconomic environment. These, however, sowed the seeds for the financial crisis by creating unsustainable imbalances and distortions. Obstacles to future growth are likely to be retrenchment in consumption, dampened investment, and unsustainable fiscal balances. Going forward, there must be a renewed commitment to medium-term, rule-based, policies for maintaining fiscal sustainability, price stability, and financial stability. The international imbalances between savings and consumption must also be addressed through a global reform agenda discussed in the paper. Even with reform, the challenges to growth will be daunting. Without reform, however, it is likely that the global economy will suffer a lost decade.     

公共投资与经济增长的相关分析--中国数据的计量检验

本文在现有文献研究的基础上,依据中国改革开放20多年的实际数据,运用内生增长理论构建计量经济模型,对公共物质资本投资、公共人力资本投资及R&D投资与经济增长的相关性进行了协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,结果发现:三种公共投资具有不同程度的正向经济增长效应,并且其促进经济增长的路径也不相同.公共物质资本投资主要是通过资本积累效应拉动经济增长,而公共人力资本投资及研发投资则是通过提高全要素生产率及外部性效应促进经济增长.并且,在不同的发展阶段上,三种公共投资与经济增长的因果关系及驱动机制又有所不同.针对实证结果得出结论及政策建议,进而为优化我国公共投资政策提供决策依据.     

Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures

This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalance since 1997 is changes in saving‐investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the US fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 per cent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific.     

Anmerkungen zu „Irrungen und Wirrungen mit der Leistungsbilanzstatistik“ von Georg Erber

Priewe rejects several propositions: The current account balance is not a sound indicator of the competitiveness of an economy, the direct use of gross capital inflows is not pre-determined by anyone other than foreign investors, capital flows do not determine the current account balance, bilateral capital flows between member countries of the eurozone are not relevant for the balance of payment, and absolving the surplus countries and solely blaming the deficit countries for improper use of capital inflows obfuscates the fact that both surplus and deficit countries are involved in the making of imbalances. In his reply, Erber stresses that the intention of his article was to point out that the empirical facts blaming Germany for being responsible for the current eurozone crisis are not supported by the data. Furthermore, current accounts are mere accounting identities. Therefore, focussing on the current accounts alone is insufficient for identifying the causes of the euro crisis.     

逆周期资本账户管制对宏观经济稳定与社会福利改善的作用

资本管制能否有效抵御外部冲击实现宏观经济稳定存在争论,本文通过构造开放经济的DSGE模型研究投资限制和逆周期金融交易税等资本管制工具对于实现宏观经济稳定和改善社会福利的作用。通过比较不同政策安排下主要宏观经济变量的波动性和脉冲响应函数可以发现,采用逆周期金融交易税作为资本管制工具在抵御外部冲击、维持宏观经济稳定方面具有比较优势。设置投资限制的资本管制促进了货币政策的独立性,可以使货币政策专注管理国内的经济增长和通货膨胀问题。通过不同政策安排下的福利分析可知,增加投资国外资产的限制对社会福利的增进起到负面作用,增加逆周期金融交易税的资本管制却可以减轻由投资限制导致的资源配置扭曲,从而放松投资国外资产的限制从根本上提高社会福利。所以,在资本管制工具的选择上,采取逆周期金融交易税可能比采用投资限制更优。随着资本账户开放的基本条件不断成熟,用金融交易税取代投资限制更符合浮动汇率制和自由兑换的资本账户的需求。     

Is China's Exchange Rate Policy a Form of Trade Protection?

This paper examines how China's heavily managed exchange rate contributes to its huge trade surplus with its major trading partners, most notably the United States. Based on the distinction between economies’ aggregate output and expenditure and on the premise that exchange rates are shared variables, it develops a straightforward framework that shows how exchange rate management by China's central bank affects China's fast growing output, expenditure, employment, and trade balance, while simultaneously influencing these aggregates in its slower growing industrialized trading partners. This framework reveals that under conditions of limited private capital mobility an inflexible yuan yields higher short-run output gains for China at trading partners’ expense through a form of “exchange rate protection.” At the same time exchange rate misalignment limits China's consumption and hence living standards. A misaligned currency is also shown to bias international saving and investment flows and is central to any explanation of global imbalances.     

区域经济失衡的"货币性因素"分析

我国的区域经济失衡已经比较严重,而区域经济失衡是为非均衡发展战略付出的代价。改变这种状况,传统的财政政策的调控虽然有效,但作用也有限,起根本作用的是西部地区金融资源的配置状况,解决西部地区内源融资和外源融资方面存在的问题。从总体上看,除了继续加强传统财政政策手段的力度以外,通过"区域经济调节税"扩展传统财政政策手段是现实生产率与历史贡献相统一的具体体现。通过区域经济失衡的货币性因素分析,有助于正确选择解决区域经济失衡的宏观经济政策。     

Lässt sich der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss mit vertretbarem Aufwand reduzieren?

Can an expansive fiscal policy help to reduce Germany’s current account surplus while simultaneously creating positive spillover effects for the eurozone? If yes, what amount of measures would be required in order to bring the current account surplus below the 6% of GDP threshold specified in the EU Commission’s macroeconomic imbalance procedure? An analysis based on a global macroeconometric model shows that fiscal policy measures could reduce Germany’s surplus. The positive spillovers for the eurozone would be relatively small, however, while a huge amount of fiscal stimuli would be required to reach the 6% threshold. In addition, there would be a lasting increase in Germany’s public debt.     

当前我国宏观经济的内外失衡及调整

我国目前宏观经济运行中内外失衡较为严重,储蓄率过高、消费需求不足、投资低效、失业率上升与国际收支巨额双顺差同时并存。尽管内外失衡是开放宏观经济运行的“常态”,短期内有其存在的必然性,但长期的内外失衡有悖于经济的持续发展。内外失衡并存的根本原因在于内部失衡,协调内外均衡的有效途径就是要转变我国过度依赖外需的经济发展模式．使我国经济发展建立在内需为主的基础之上。     

金融危机下我国宏观调控：经验、问题与完善路径

2007年底金融危机以来,我国宏观调控经历了＂双防＂政策、＂一保一控＂、＂一防三保＂三个阶段。这次宏观调控的经验表明：调控要快、重、准、实;调控手段要以经济手段为主并牢牢牵住市场这个＂牛鼻子＂;积极关注价格波动。金融危机以来我国宏观调控显示出经济社会协调发展、经济总量与经济结构并重和各项体制改革稳步推进等特征。随着金融危机的深化,针对我国经济运行中出现外需与内需失衡、政府投资与民间投资失衡、市场结构与产业结构失衡、现实紧缩与通胀预期矛盾等问题,我国宏观调控要沿着管理体系、政策体系与目标体系三条路径进行完善。     

为什么中国的外汇储备越来越多--基于赶超情结和权力结构的分析

1990年代后,中国外汇储备快速增长的原因并不是人们通常所认为的实际利用外资量大、外贸顺差大、热钱流入多,而是赶超情结和权力结构失衡双重作用的结果。基于中国解放之后历史阶段的理论分析表明：赶超情结和权力结构的失衡使中国步入了一种“低福利、低权利”的发展模式,劳动力低成本格局得以长期维持。这种格局既增加了中国出口商品的竞争力,获得顺差,也促进了FDI等资本流入,还加剧了中国经济失衡,导致国民消费率一路走低、投资率畸高、商品过剩严重,不得不以出口作为出路。这样就必然导致中国的外汇储备不断增加乃至高居世界第一。     

50 Jahre Kritik an der deutschen Zahlungsbilanz

For nearly 50 years Germany has been criticised for the surplus on its balance of payments, especially on the current account. In 1965 and 1976, Charles P. Kindleberger analysed this phenomenon and predicted its persistence. The causes he presented were structural (the structure of German exports, a special “propensity to export”, the docility of German labour, German innovation and technical progress) and macroeconomic (inflation abroad, the German propensities to save or not to absorb); institutional factors were responsible for an inadequate long-term capital export so that the export surplus led to an accumulation of foreign liquid assets. It is shown that these forces, with some modifications, are still prevalent. Instead of alleviating these problems, the European Economic and Monetary Union reinforced the tendency towards disequilibrium.     

我国经常项目收支平衡与经济增长——基于BPCG模型的实证分析

20世纪90年代初以来,我国经常项目中商品贸易持续顺差,服务贸易和投资收益账户却连年逆差,这种结构不利于我国经济的持续稳定增长。本文应用国际收支约束下经济增长模型(BPCG)及其扩展形式,实证分析了1982-2005年间我国经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率、商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率与实际增长率之间的差异,结论为经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率比商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率要低0.5-1个百分点。     

资本市场与国际收支:来自工业化国家的经验数据

本文从理论和经验上论证了资本市场与国际收支的关系。通过分析18个工业化国家的经验数据得出:一国如果拥有一个发达的资本市场,往往吸引较多的国外资金通过证券投资大量流入,引起资本账户顺差,与之同时往往伴随着经常账户逆差。这一结论的政策含义是:发达的资本市场是一国合理利用外资的一个重要前提;与之同时,发达的资本市场可能是一国国际收支平衡过程中实现自我调节的缓冲器。我国多年来一直保持资本账户巨额顺差,但主要是通过FDI实现的,这种格局的形成也与我国资本市场的缺陷有关。对我国而言,建设一个发达的资本市场对我国国际收支管理有着多方面的积极意义。     

On the employment, investment and current account effects of inflation

The effects of inflation targets are examined for a small open economy with cash in advance constraints. An increase in the inflation rate, by increasing the price of consumption relative to leisure, reduces consumption and labor supply. The fall in labor reduces the marginal productivity of capital, and a fall in investment. The country runs a current account surplus, despite the fall in output. The dynamics of the model for permanent and temporary policy changes are fully worked out, with the aid of a diagrammatic apparatus. Quantitative analysis of the model reveals substantial impact and steady state effects.