2008 East Asia Investment Forum Investment Cooperation in East Asia Facing Global Financial Fluctuations

2008 East Asia Investment Forum was held from May 10 to May 11 in Beijing with the theme of ＂Investment Cooperation in East Asia Facing Global Financial Fluctuations＂. It shed light on investment challenges and opportunities in Vietnam, Lao, Cambodia and Burma which are the four emerging markets in East Asia, and investment hotspots in Vietnam as well as the potential for investment cooperation in East Asia.     

实际汇率波动对我国出口的影响——基于SITC比较

本文研究了自1994年以来中国对美国按SITC出口贸易与实际汇率波动之间的关系.实证结论表明,尽管我国自1994年后对美国的名义汇率基本保持不变,但仍然无法规避实际汇率波动带来的负面影响.进而,按SITC的比较发现,不同行业对汇率波动的反应不同,制造业产品受到的影响明显大于初级产品;此外,制造业中不同产品对汇率波动的反应也不一致.因此,基于本文的实证结论,笔者建议加快远期外汇市场建设,并指出提升国内需求是缓冲将来进一步扩大汇率浮动区间对我国贸易影响的重要手段.     

全球经济治理体系改革的东亚方案与中国作用

全球性经济问题不断出现暴露了现行全球经济治理体系的诸多问题,治理体系亟待改革。受地缘政治以及历史等因素的影响,东亚区域一体化发展滞缓并始终缺位于全球经济治理体系。东亚地区已经成为世界经济增长的重要一极,应积极贡献体现东亚区域价值理念和制度设计的全球经济治理改革方案。东亚方案应着重解决当前全球经济治理体系存在的平等缺位、合作缺位、责任缺位,倡导全球经济的包容性发展、以"开放的区域主义"维护全球经济治理的多边体制以及构建多元化的全球货币体系。中国是东亚区域的核心国家,应积极发挥作用保障东亚方案的有效可行,推动全球经济治理体系的改革。     

国际股票市场收益率和波动率的长记忆性研究

股票市场长记忆性问题是金融学研究的一个热点问题,对于市场有效性的研究和系统非线性结构的分析有着重要的意义。本文运用修正R/S分析和V/S分析两种方法对世界上28个国家(地区)的股票指数的日、周收益序列和日、周收益波动序列进行了完整的长记忆性研究。结果表明:对于收益序列,以美国为代表的大多数发达国家股市一般不存在长记忆性,而中国等发展中国家大多存在显著的长记忆性,尤其中国股市的长记忆性最强;对于收益波动序列,所有国家(地区)都具有长记忆性,并强于收益序列。     

Growing East Asia

It was a busy exchanging period of East Asia in recent days. From October 28 to 31, 2007 the fourth China-ASEAN Expo (CAEXPO) and the fourth China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit (CABIS) were held concurrently in Nanning, capital city of Guangxi Province in China. In the Expo,China witnessed a turnout of over 33,000 trade visitors and over 180 investment cooperation projects with ASEAN.     

Asymmetric Correlations in Predicting Portfolio Returns*

Rigorous statistical tests have been designed to detect the existence of asymmetric correlations. However, these tests can hardly further facilitate future investment or risk management because asymmetric correlations are time‐varying and difficult to predict. In this paper, we construct a unified state‐space model, which not only measures in‐sample asymmetric correlations, but also exploit out‐of‐sample asymmetric correlations in the context of predicting portfolio returns. First, we regard time‐varying correlation between market returns and portfolio returns as a state variable and model it as an AR(1) process. Then, we measure future asymmetric correlations based on correlation coefficients between two unpredictable components in market returns and correlation, respectively. Third, we clarify the intuition, calculate asymmetric correlations for two portfolio sets and estimate the economic value of applying our model in asset allocation. Finally, we try to search for potential variables that can explain future asymmetric correlations. The results show that market‐wide liquidity, variance, earning price ratio, and investor sentiment can partially explain the asymmetry correlation phenomenon.     

Legal Protection,Corruption and Private Equity Returns in Asia

Although trustworthiness has been described as a source of competitive advantage, its value extends to organizational governance and wealth creation. We identify the importance of the commitment–compliance continuum in the decision to trust and note that trustworthiness is a subjective perception viewed through each person’s mediating lens. That lens and each person’s interpretation of the social contract impact one’s commitment to cooperate. We suggest five propositions that integrate trustworthiness, governance, and wealth creation.     

中国开放式基金收益及其波动性的周内效应研究

了解基金收益及其波动性是否存在周内效应对投资者非常重要,投资者可以利用收益及其波动性的变动信息调整投资组合,增加投资收益。运用均值方程含有虚拟变量的GARCH(1,1)模型和条件方差方程含有虚拟变量的修正的GARCH(1,1)模型,我们分别对2003年6月1日至2005年8月18日期间中国开放式基金收益的周内效应和收益波动性的周内效应进行实证研究,结果显示,在研究期间内样本基金收益及收益的波动性在周三这一天显著不同于其他交易日,即存在“周三效应”。     

盈余波动性与IPO回报:基于风险补偿视角的解释

在资本市场中,IPO回报是关系到多方市场参与主体利益的重要问题之一.基于风险.补偿的视角,以1991-2015年中国A股IPO公司为研究样本,检验盈余波动性对IPO回报的影响.结果 发现,盈余波动性越高,投资者基于风险补偿所要求的IPO回报越高.作用机制检验结果表明,经营风险在盈余波动性对IPO回报的影响中发挥显著的中介效应,而信息风险的中介效应较弱.异质性检验结果显示,IPO制度变迁、投资者构成均会对盈余波动性与IPO回报之间的关系产生影响.此外,盈余波动性也会在较长时期影响IPO回报.研究结果表明:公司的盈余波动性增加了投资者利用盈余信息进行决策的风险,进而促使IPO回报有所提升;公司可以通过提升持续稳定的经营能力降低盈余波动性,进而在一定程度上降低投资者对IPO回报的风险补偿要求.研究结论可以为上市公司有效降低融资成本以及监管机构加强IPO异象监管提供重要的参考.     

Economic Theory and Industrial Policy in East Asia

Economic liberalisation has been advocated as universally valid for developed and developing countries alike, and, as a result, the role of the state has been disparaged in favour of unrestricted markets and free trade. The neo-classical proposition is by no means fully justified from a theoretical point of view, and there exist powerful, countervailing arguments why government intervention and market coordination, especially during a nation's initial stage of industrialisation, can achieve improved resource allocation and greater competitive advantage. By helping to explain the very creation of industrial capacity, as well as the enhancement of long-term growth rates, institutional economics can provide clearer insights into the complementary roles of state and market. These theories are, moreover, supported by empirical evidence from East Asia, where government has been a contributory but not dominant factor in the achievement of economic success.     

Globalization,regionalization and convergence in East Asia

This research paper reports the result of an investigation into the pattern of income convergence in East Asia since 1970 and the proximate role of increased regionalization and inter-regional globalization in generating regional convergence or divergence. Specifically, we apply sigma and log t convergence tests for income convergence in the East Asian region and an augmented autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to analyze the relationship between regional income dispersion and intra- and extra-regional flows of goods, capital and technology. Regardless of the measure of per capita income, the sigma convergence tests fail to find any evidence of intra-regional convergence. The log t convergence tests do not indicate overall convergence either, but, indicate the existence of convergence clubs within the region. The regression analysis suggests that intra-regional flows of capital and technology and extra- regional FDI flows unambiguously engender convergence while intra-regional trade flows and extra-regional exports have divergence effects.     

东亚通货膨胀趋势及决定因素

文章选取11个东亚国家和地区的数据为代表,采用针对不同国家的最优ARIMA模型预测东亚通货膨胀的发展趋势,发现东亚大部分国家面临较大的通货膨胀压力,通货膨胀持续上涨的趋势明显。并采用面板数据和Pooled-OLS分析法分析东亚通货膨胀的决定因素,研究表明东亚的通货膨胀形成的原因复杂,在惯性通胀、产出缺口、国际油价和粮食价格等多个因素的共同作用下形成;并发现次贷危机前后的东亚通货膨胀的决定因素有所不同,次贷危机前石油和粮食价格等成本因素大大地推动了东亚的通货膨胀,次贷危机后产出缺口等需求因素较大地影响了东亚的通货膨胀。针对东亚通货膨胀问题,文章提出包括中央银行改革、紧缩性货币政策、能源和粮食储备战略和调控个别行业或商品的对策和建议。     

Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South‐East Asia

East and South‐East Asia will face major demographic changes over the next few decades with many countries’ labour forces starting to decline, while others experience higher labour force growth as populations and/or participation rates increase. A well‐managed labour migration strategy presents itself as a mechanism for ameliorating the impending labour shortages in some East Asia–Pacific countries, while providing an opportunity for other countries with excess labour to provide migrant workers who will contribute to the development of the home country through greater remittance flows. This paper examines such migration policy options using a global dynamic economic simulation approach and finds that allowing migrants to respond to the major demographic changes occurring in Asia over the next 50 years would be beneficial to most economies in the region in terms of real incomes and real GDP over the 2007–50 period. Such a policy could deeply affect the net migration position of a country. Countries that were net recipients under current migration policies might become net senders under the more liberal policy regime.     

2001年东亚经济预测

简介 20世纪末,英国《经济学家》杂志刊文分析全球经济变冷下的东亚经济崛起(除中国和日本),并对其前景作展望。根据出口业和投资环境的特征,几个国家和地区被分成三个类型进行讨论。文章暗示:在中国大陆和日本经济稳定的前提下,东亚有可能摆脱出口需求减少和油价波动的影响,关键取决于台湾和韩国投资环境的改善。20世纪末要找刺激,不妨投资成长中的东亚股市。1998年度的大幅下跌,紧随是1999年度令人惊叹的反弹,然后2000年3月又开始揪心的狂跌。有理由担心:这是否预示着正从危机中康复的东亚将在新世纪初遇到新的麻烦?     

The Effect of Corporate Governance on Firm Stock Volatility in Asia

The authors examine whether firm corporate governance (CG) contributes to lower stock-return volatility. Using the panel data of 1,252 public listed firms in Asia across 11 countries for 15 years, the authors document international evidence that CG has a stabilizing effect on firm stock-return volatility. The authors further examine whether increasing information efficiency, reducing foreign exposure, and a lower cost of capital contribute to the stabilizing effect of firm CG on stock-return volatility. The result implies that better CG will only reduce stock-return volatility for firms that have less foreign exposure.     

Trade barriers in East and South East Asia: the implications for retailers

Many countries in East and South East Asia have erected trade barriers at various times since 1945. Many retail markets have therefore been closed to outside influence and investment. In the 1990s however such measures are being reversed and markets in East and South East Asia are becoming increasingly open. This openness is both a willing embrace of outside investment and a less willing acceptance of external pressures. This paper reviews the changes taking place and concludes that those retailers taking advantage of the opportunities are faced with a variety of problems. Indeed, it would seem that the removal of international trade barriers simply leads to their replacement with more difficult domestic market policies.     

Business Ethics in the South and South East Asia

Gender is one of the most frequently studied variables within the ethics literature. In prior studies that find gender differences, females consistently report more ethical responses than males. However, prior research also indicates that females are more prone to responding in a socially desirable fashion. Consequently, it is uncertain whether gender differences in ethical decision-making exist because females are more ethical or perhaps because females are more prone to the social desirability response bias. Using a sample of 30 scenarios from prior studies that find gender differences, we examine whether these gender differences remain robust once social desirability is controlled for in the analysis. Our data suggest that the effect of gender on ethical decision-making is largely attenuated once social desirability is included in the analysis. In essence, the social desirability response bias appears to be driving a significant portion of the relationship between gender and ethical decision-making. We discuss several important research implications of this study.     

股市收益和波动性长期记忆的国际比较——基于V/S的经验证据

现有研究运用经典和修正R/S分析探讨我国股票市场的长期记忆效应。本文运用更为稳健的V/S分析,对比研究上证股市和另外7个国家和地区的股票市场,分别诊断各股市日收益和周收益、及三种典型度量的收益波动的长期记忆效应。研究表明:股市日收益和周收益序列都不存在显著的长期记忆;三种典型度量的收益波动普遍存在显著的长期记忆;日收益波动比周收益波动的长期记忆更显著。