Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility: Calculations and policy implications

In this paper a procedure for calculating the annual efficiency gains from various alternative changes in existing global immigration restrictions is presented, along with an evaluation of impacts of wage rate changes on non-migrating labour. A simple methodology uses data on U.S. dollar GNP/capita across countries to infer differences in the marginal productivity of labour both between countries and across major world trading areas. Two key assumptions used are that the worldwide labour supply is fixed and full employment occurs in all regions. Differences occuring in labour's marginal product across regions are assumed to arise because of barriers to inward mobility of labour in high wage countries. When these are removed, labour reallocates and efficiency gains occur. While the calculations are based on contentious assumptions, a striking feature is the size of the annual worldwide gains. In some cases, annual gains can easily exceed existing worldwide GNP generated in the presence of labour mobility restrictions. While all gains do not accrue to LDC's, the size of the gains nonetheless suggests that this issue may be much more important to these countries than other issues raised thus far in the North-South debate. The losses to labour already employed in high wage countries dramatize the incentives for labour unions in the developed world to oppose liberalization.     

A numerical simulation analysis of (Hukou) labour mobility restrictions in China

We use numerical simulation methods to analyze the Hukou system of permanent registration in China which many believe has supported growing relative inequality over the last 20 years by restraining labour migration both between the countryside and urban areas and between regions and cities. Our aim is to inject economic modelling into the debate on sources of inequality in China which thus far has been largely statistical. We first use a model with homogeneous labour in which wage inequality across various geographical divides in China is supported solely by quantity based migration restrictions (urban–rural areas, rich–poor regions, eastern-central and western (non-coastal) zones, eastern and central-western development zones, eastern–central–western zones, more disaggregated 6 regional classifications, and an all 31 provincial classification). We calibrate this model to base case data and when we remove migration restrictions all wage and most income inequality disappears. Results from this model structure points to a significant role for Hukou restrictions in supporting inequality in China. We then present a further model extension in which urban house price rises retard rural–urban migration. The impacts of removing Hukou restrictions on migration are smaller, but are still significant. Finally, we modify the model to capture labour productivity differences across regions, calibrating the modified model to estimates of both national and regional Gini coefficients. Removal of migration barriers is again inequality improving but less so.     

Offshoring and labour market reforms in Germany: Assessment and policy implications

Starting from the diagnosis that Germany has had better economic outcomes than most advanced countries since the mid-2000s, we propose a general equilibrium model to answer the following two questions: Why is it so and is the German experience applicable to other EU countries? Whereas a large number of observers explain German competitiveness by the labour market reforms implemented from 2003 to 2005 (Hartz laws), we suggest that (i) the gains in competitiveness are essentially due to offshoring and (ii) the labour market reforms have subsequently reduced the offshoring-related unemployment by decreasing the reservation wage, creating thereby low skilled jobs in non-tradable services. These reforms have also reinforced inequality already generated by offshoring. In contrast with the traditional explanation based on the Hartz reforms, our model findings and simulations fit well with the sequence of observed facts. This experience could be extended to other EU countries, but with higher cost and lower efficiency. Finally, as the reduction in unemployment is based on the extension of non-tradable services, we suggest alternative policies that reach the same goal without increasing inequality.     

State income tax policy and geographic labour force mobility in the United States

"This study empirically investigates the impact of state income tax policy on U.S. interstate migration [of the labor force] for the period 1985-89. It finds that people vote with their feet and prefer to move so as to minimize their state income tax liabilities."     

The euro: Major policy implications for Europe and the global economy

The paper examines the potential of the euro as an international currency. Owing to a large home base the long‐run potential is substantial. Much depends on whether the European Central Bank will be able to gain the reputation of a tough authority that issues a stable currency. Based on a comparison with the concepts of monetary targeting and inflation targeting, it is argued that the ECB's policy strategy is inferior as regards providing guidance to inflation expectations. The paper also discusses exchange rate policy and concludes that it is unlikely that Europe will join a new international exchange rate system.     

Job search and mobility in developing countries. Theory and policy implications

A labor market model is developed in which the formal sector is characterized by search frictions whereas the informal sector is competitive. We show that there exists a unique steady-state equilibrium in this dual economy. We then consider different policies financed by a tax on firms' profits. We find that reducing the unemployment benefit or the firms' entry cost in the formal sector induces higher job creation and formal employment, reduces the size of the informal sector but has an ambiguous effect on wages. We also find that an employment/wage subsidy policy and a hiring subsidy policy have different implications. In particular, the former increases the size of the informal sector while the latter decreases it.     

SIDD: An adaptable framework for analysing the distributional implications of policy alternatives where savings and employment decisions matter

The Simulator of Individual Dynamic Decisions, SIDD, is publicly available software for analysing the distributional effects of policy alternatives. SIDD is a framework, rather than a model, in the sense that it is designed to facilitate adaptation to alternative country and policy contexts. The microsimulation framework can generate panel data describing a wide range of characteristics at annual intervals for each adult in an evolving population cross-section. Structural methods are employed to project savings and employment decisions, making SIDD a suitable tool for exploring the incentive effects of policy alternatives, and how these vary across the population and over time. The framework is also a valuable test-bed for empirical analyses of alternative behavioural assumptions, especially those concerning preferences for risk. In an effort to support good policy design and empirical analysis of savings and labour supply behaviour, SIDD has been made free for download from www.simdynamics.org.     

Natural resources and international labour mobility

We study the relationship between natural resource wealth and (skilled and unskilled) emigration. The source data for international migration rates come from Brücker, Capuano, and Marfouk (2013) and measures of resource wealth from the World Bank database. We find that natural resource abundance reduces skilled emigration regardless of countries’ natural wealth, but that natural resources reduce unskilled emigration only in resource-rich countries.     

Cross-country evidence on the distributional impact of fiscal policy

This article provides new evidence on the distributional effects of fiscal policy using data on a panel of OECD economies over the last four decades. We study how four measures of income inequality and poverty respond to several stock and flow variables accounting for fiscal actions. We find that increases in government debt and expenditure promote a less unequal distribution of income. We detect a significant distributional impact of education and social spending as well as of government consumption expenditure. We also investigate potential redistributive implications of large fiscal expansion and consolidation episodes finding no evidence of additional effects beyond those associated with conventional fiscal variables.

Abbreviations: OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; GDP: Gross Domestic Product; G20: Group of 20 economies (forum of 19 dvanced and emerging countries plus the European Union); CGE: Computational General Equilibrium models; DSGE: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models; UN-WIDER: United Nations World Institute for Development Economics Research; SWIID: Standardized World Income Inequality Database; WDI: World Development Indicators; PPP: Purchasing-Power Parity; LIS: Luxembourg Income Database; GMM: Generalized Method of Moments; FE: Fixed Effects; RE: Random Effects; SE: Standard Errors; CPI: Consumer Price Index     

Canadian regional labour market evolutions: a long-run restrictions SVAR analysis

Canada's high reliance on commodities can work against its constitutionally mandated goal of regional equity in economic development, while also inhibiting macroeconomic performance and limiting monetary policy effectiveness. Yet, flexible and integrated regional labour markets can help achieve both equity and macroeconomic goals. Therefore, this study examines the dynamics of Canadian provincial labour markets using a long-run restrictions structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Labour market fluctuations are decomposed into the parts arising from shocks to labour demand (new jobs), labour supply through migration (new people) and internal labour supply (original residents). The results suggest that demand innovations primarily underlie provincial labour market fluctuations. Despite significant geographic and language barriers that could impede their performance, there also is little overall evidence to suggest that provincial labour markets are more sluggish or less flexible than US state labour markets. Finally, original residents benefit slightly more from increased provincial labour demand compared to findings for US states.     

Preschool for all? Enrollment and maternal labour supply implications of a bilingual preschool policy

ABSTRACT

Previous research supports the effectiveness of preschool in various contexts, yet there is limited evidence whether universal-type preschool policies induce changes in enrollment. While certain states have enacted universal preschool policies, some have also considered bilingual preschool mandates, either as a supplementary or stand-alone policy, requiring schools to open up bilingual classrooms for children from non-English speaking families. The question of whether bilingual preschool policies can induce enrollment and close achievement gaps between English learners and English speakers is particularly important today for urban cities and states with large immigrant populations. In this study, I exploit exogenous variation from the first bilingual prekindergarten mandate in Illinois to estimate the causal effects on preschool enrollment and maternal labour supply of recently immigrated and Hispanic families. Utilizing a difference-in-differences strategy, estimates suggest significant effects on preschool enrollment between 18% and 20% and no effects of increasing maternal labour supply in Illinois. Estimates are robust to various specifications, control groups, and timeframes. I use the analysis to further discuss whether universal preschool policies are designed sufficiently for access and inclusion of various student types, and contribute to our understanding on the effectiveness of using childcare subsidies to increase the welfare of low-income families.     

A study on Spanish female labour supply with job offer restrictions

This paper analyses female working time taking into account restrictions on hours. Moreover, we compare two different specifications of employment opportunities. The first one assumes that the probabilities of receiving different job offers are constant whereas in the second one we incorporate the hypothesis that these probabilities depend on individual characteristics. The model is estimated using a sample of Spanish women from the Encuesta Piloto sobre Ganancias y Subempleo (1990). The results suggest that incorporating job restrictions is a valuable extension and that individual variables affect the availability of job offers.JEL Classification: J22This paper is based on the second chapter of my Ph. D. thesis defended at the University of Oviedo in December 2000. I am very grateful to Víctor M. Fernández and Jaume García for their valuable help and to Emla Fitzsimons for her linguistic revision of the text. I am also grateful to two anonymous referees for their suggestions that have significantly improved this paper. Any remaining errors are my responsibility. Financial support from the Banco Herrero is gratefully acknowledged.     

Geographic labour mobility and the cost of housing: evidence from Italy

In recent years, internal migration in Italy has declined markedly, notwithstanding the widening of the North-South gap in terms of unemployment rates and real income. Here, the extent to which the housing market has contributed to the decline is examined. Preliminary to this analysis, differentials in the cost of housing between the macro-areas of the country are estimated using data on the market price of houses located in 96 provincial capitals. Econometric evidence is provided supporting the view that the North-South housing price differential is a notable factor in explaining the falling pattern of mobility. The positive impact on migration from the South to the North of a wider gap in the two areas in terms of income and employment prospects has been offset by the housing price differential, which has steadily risen at least from the mid-1980s onwards. Yet, a considerable share of the decrease in mobility remains unexplained, possibly owing to the heterogeneity in the composition of migration flows across different cohorts.     

Rigid labour markets with trade and capital mobility: theory and evidence

Abstract We develop a multi‐country model with imperfect labour markets to study the effect of labour market frictions on bilateral trade flows. We use a framework that allows for goods trade and capital mobility and show that labour market imperfections exert opposite effects in the absence of capital mobility (the short run) and its presence (the long run), respectively. In the short run, a higher degree of labour market rigidity decreases the value of total trade, but increases the share of intra‐industry trade for a country that is larger than its trading partner. The reverse effects are observed when capital is allowed to cross country borders. Using data on unemployment and income distribution for 23 OECD countries, we compute the central parameter in our theoretical model that describes the degree of labour market rigidity. We use this new empirical concept to provide evidence for our theoretical findings by means of reduced‐form regressions as well as simulation results of a calibrated general equilibrium model.     

Factor mobility and fiscal policy in the EU: policy issues and analytical approaches

Increased integration of labour and capital markets creates significant challenges for the welfare states of modern Europe. Taxation of capital and labour that finances extensive programmes of cash and in-kind redistribution creates incentives for capital owners and workers to locate in regions where they obtain favourable fiscal treatment. Competition among countries for mobile resources constrains their ability to alter the distribution of income and may lead to reductions in the size and scope of redistributive policies. Mobility of labour and capital is imperfect, however. Recent trends indicate that labour and capital are neither perfectly mobile nor perfectly immobile, but rather adjust gradually to market conditions and economic policies. This paper presents an explicitly dynamic analysis showing that governments can achieve some redistribution when it is costly for factors of production to relocate. As the costs of factor mobility fall, however, the effectiveness of redistributive policies is more limited, and governments have weaker incentives to pursue them. Liberalized immigration policies, EU enlargement, and other steps that promote integration of the factors markets of Western Europe with those of surrounding regions thus present a challenge to policy-makers if they also wish to maintain fiscal systems with extensive redistribution.     

Efficiency and equity impacts of rural land rental restrictions: Evidence from India

Recognition of the potentially deleterious implications of inequality in opportunity originating in a skewed asset distribution has spawned considerable interest in land reforms. However, little attention has been devoted to the fact that, in the longer-term, the measures used to implement land reforms, especially rental restrictions, could negatively affect productivity. Use of state level data on rental restrictions, together with a nationally representative survey from India suggests that, contrary to original intentions, rental restrictions negatively affect productivity and equity by reducing scope for efficiency-enhancing rental transactions that benefit poor producers. Simulations suggest that, by doubling the number of producers with access to land through rental, from about 15 million currently, liberalization of rental markets could have far-reaching impacts.     

Efficiency frontier and matching process on the labour market: Evidence from Tunisia

The purpose of this paper is to study the determinants of the inefficient functioning of the Tunisian labour market. The study takes advantage of the recent development in the stochastic frontier techniques and estimates, the matching function for Tunisia using disaggregated data. We include control variables as determinants of matching efficiency and regional disparities. We confirm that the persistently high rate of unemployment is the result of not only excess labour supply but is also related to a shortfall between supply and demand (sector, location, and qualification).