THE NEED TO REFORM THE FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE SYSTEM

The biggest financial disaster in modern history struck the savings and loan industry during the 1980s. This paper argues that the unifying cause of this debacle was the way in which the federal deposit insurance system is structured. The fundamental cause was not fraud and deregulation, as is commonly argued. The government not only permitted reportedly insolvent institutions to continue to operate, it permitted many such institutions to grow by offering relatively high rates on their deposits. Unfortunately, the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act (FIRREA) of 1989 may not prevent a similar situation from ever recurring. Therefore, one must understand exactly what happened, what the FIRREA does and does not do, and the proposals for reforming the entire structure of the federal deposit insurance system.     

REFORM OF THE DEPOSIT INSURANCE SYSTEM: AN APPRAISAL OF THE FHLBB AND FDIC STUDIES

This paper presents an appraisal of the studies of the deposit insurance system submitted to Congress by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Home Loan Bank Board in compliance with the Garn-St. German legislation of 1982. The purpose of these studies was to assess the current structure of the deposit insurance system in light of the changes in the regulation of depository institutions mandated in recent legislation
Many observers of the financial system believe that, as a result of recent regulatory changes, the deposit insurance agencies do not have sufficient power to control risk-taking of insured institutions. These two reports present an assessment of mechanism which could be used to limit the risk of the deposit insurance agencies
The emphasis in both reports is on ways in which the amount of market discipline applied to insured institutions could be increased. Both reports identify essentially three ways in which this might be accomplished. First, risk-adjusted deposit insurance prices might be employed. Second, the volume of uninsured creditors might be increased, either through changes in limits of insurance coverage or through imposition of requirements for use of subordinated debt. Third, the current public deposit insurance system might be partially supplanted by one that is private. This paper evaluates the merits of each of these proposals and compares the positions taken by the FHLBB and the FDIC on the issues     

U.S. IMMIGRATION REFORM: POLICY ISSUES AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

In recent years, legal U. S. immigration has approached historically high levels, and illegal immigration has been thought to be high and perhaps rising. Consequently, the Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy proposed sweeping changes in the nation's immigration laws. During 1984, both the Senate and House passed the Immigration Reform and Control Act (Simpson-Mazzoli Bill). This bill subsequently died in the conference committee that was established to reconcile differences between the bill's two versions. The proposed act has three major provisions: (1) control of illegal immigration, (2) legalization of alienstatus, and (3) reform of legal immigration. Both the House and Senate versions would maintain the present orientation of U.S. immigration policy toward family reunification, but the Senate proposed significant changes in legal immigration restrictions that would shift policy slightly more toward labor considerations. These proposed changes were eliminated in the compromise made in the conference committee. Employer sanctions and legalization of illegal aliens were left as the two most prominent alterations to existing policy. During 1985, the 99th Congress is likely to reconsider the Simpson-Mazzoli Bill, perhaps in a streamlined version which emphasizes employer sanctions, legalization, and a substantial increase in border enforcement.     

BANK FAILURES: THE DEPOSIT INSURANCE CONNECTION

It is generally accepted that banks must be regulated so as to avoid the moral hazard situation that deposit insurance generates. Accepting this argument implies that expanded bank powers must await deposit insurance reform. This article rejects the accepted view and argues instead that the existing regulatory system enhances rather than diminishes the riskiness of banks' portfolios. The article argues that the benefits from permitting banks to diversify probably would outweigh the costs. It concludes, however, that deposit insurance is a major culprit in the current wave of bank failures.     

THE DEFECTIVE DESIGN OF FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE

Deposit insurance funds, especially the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation, are currently in visible trouble. Two central defects of the existing deposit insurance system are identified: (1) mispricing of the insurance premiums and (2) incentives for both the industry and the insurance agencies to postpone recognizing and realizing losses.
Insurance premiums are mispriced because they are assessed at the same rate for all institutions, which creates a bias for banks to take greater risks. Practical difficulties of setting an appropriate risk-based premium for each bank are real but not necessarily insurmountable. In particular, the sale by the bank of unsecured and uninsured debt could provide a market measure of default risk, under a given failure rule.
The choice of a failure rule is also a critical matter. Current failure rules are poorly defined and permit insolvent institutions to continue in operation. Specifying a market value test of insolvency in the statutes would be helpful, but it would have to be supported by market-value accounting requirements and stronger pressures on banking authorities not to defer action.     

银行监管力量重构损害了市场约束的效用吗-基于亚洲银行1991-2005年面板数据的研究

各国金融安全网的实施导致银行的监管体系发生重构,会导致市场约束受到"挤压",已经逐步地被经济学家们认可。但是对于亚洲国家来说,监管力量的重构是否影响了市场约束却尚未得到明确的实证结论。本文的研究立足于此,研究发现亚洲金融危机对亚洲国家和地区的市场约束的扭曲较大,各国和地区在银行危机后加强银行监管的行为导致了这种"低成本"的市场约束的损伤。     

我国存款保险制度的机构模式选择*

基于规制经济学激励理论,本文从制度比较视角探讨了存款保险制度以附属机构模式和独立机构模式运行的不同制度绩效。在独立机构模式下的存款保险制度,激励机制更为清晰,有助于降低监管机构救助与处置成本的冲突。随着制度环境和制度条件的成熟、问题银行处理经验的积累、技术型专业化监管人力资源的增强,应当适时将我国存款保险制度转换为独立机构模式的存款保险制度。本文从存款保险制度机构模式选择的视角,对我国存款保险制度的完善和改进提出政策建议。     

BANK RUNS: DEPOSIT INSURANCE AND CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS*

Diamond and Dybvig provide a model of intermediation in which deposit insurance can avoid socially undesirable bank runs. We extend the Diamond–Dybvig model to evaluate the costs and benefits of deposit insurance in the presence of moral hazard by banks and monitoring by depositors. We find that complete deposit insurance alone will not support the first‐best outcome: depositors will not have adequate incentives for monitoring and banks will invest in excessively risky projects. However, an additional capital requirement for banks can restore the first‐best allocation.     

美元本位制、美元霸权与美国金融危机

美元本位制下,美元霸权表现为中心一外围框架体系.在该体系下,中心国美国与外围国家的权益和义务不对称,地位不对等,而且框架体系本身具有内在的不相容性,这些特征决定了美元本位制的内在脆弱性,由此也使美国落入美元本位制的陷阱,造成美国国内利率下降、消费信用过度扩张、制造业陷入衰退等经济失衡,最后当信用泡沫破灭时,金融危机爆发.     

SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM IN CHINA: THE CASE OF OLD-AGE INSURANCE

The social security system in the People's Republic of China is experiencing dramatic changes. This paper examines the characteristics of the pre-reform social security system in the People's Republic of China with respect to the old-age insurance, discusses and comments on the recent efforts towards old-age insurance reform, and proposes recommendations for the current reform, such as raising the official retirement ages, changing funding system, and investing pension funds to appreciate their values.     

理性泡沫与内生货币供给下的恶性通货膨胀:中国1945—1949

以银行效用为中心的存款保险制度在一个转型的社会制度中具备存在的条件,本文论证了这种可能性;同时,文章首次讨论了银行导向的存款保险制度的构建,提出了银行导向的存款保险下最优存款保险费率、最优存款保险的总量范围、最优存款保险的种类安排等的决定方法,构建了银行导向的存款保险的实施框架。     

ASSESSING THE WELFARE IMPACT OF TAX REFORM: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2001 U.S. TAX CUT

This paper implements a relatively simple methodological approach to estimate the impact on family welfare of a specific tax reform. The measured impact can differ greatly from simple marginal tax rate comparisons, and conclusions about the distribution of the welfare impact can vary depending on the basis of comparison. For example, absolute welfare gains from the 2001 U.S. tax reform were concentrated among the highest and lowest income families, whereas welfare gains measured as a share of pre‐tax income are found to be nearly monotonically declining in income.     

U.S. farm dynamics and the distribution of U.S. agricultural subsidies

The persistent instability of the agricultural sector is the fundamental premise of most agricultural policy. Yet no research has ever quantified the aggregate dynamics of individual farms in the US. This article is the first to combine the US Census of Agriculture with the Agricultural Resource Management Survey to observe the dynamics of nearly 1.5 million farms. The data reveal substantial variation in farm size expansion and contraction. Most of this variation is unobservable in the sector totals reported by the US Department of Agriculture each year. The distribution of agricultural subsidies suggests that subsidies become more important as farms get smaller and may play a role in slowing farm size contraction.     

U.S. insurance trade

The U.S. has had significant trade deficits in insurance for several years. This paper examines the reasons for such big annual deficits. A large home market, a low reinsurance capacity, and the conservative attitude of U.S. insurers toward foreign markets are identified as the primary contributors to such deficits. The paper also addresses the issue of how U.S. insurers can improve their international competitive position. By expanding their operations abroad, particularly in Mexico and Latin America, and by actively participating in the fast-growing Asian markets, American insurers have their greatest chance to accomplish that objective.     

美国经济失衡对美元汇率的影响

经济内部失衡或者外部失衡对汇率的影响都是不确定的,但是,当经济内外部同时失衡时,汇率贬值或政府干预外汇市场的可能性最大。实证结果支持了上述结论。当美国经济内外部同时失衡时,美元贬值或美国政府干预外汇市场的概率就会提高27个百分点。这意味着,通过汇率变动,美国将内部问题外部化了。理解了美元汇率变动的原因实际上也就理解了21世纪初期以来人民币面临升值压力的原因。     

美国政府对外国参与美国研发活动的管理概况

本文主要探讨美国对外国参与美国研发活动的基本态度以及政府管理的基本情况。     

Explosive U.S. budget deficit

In this study, we present new evidence that the postwar U.S. federal budget deficit was explosive in nature. Because of the government's inevitable attempts to reduce high or rapidly growing budget deficits, the deficit may contain a substantial component that periodically collapses, which renders the standard unit root tests biased toward stationarity. We apply a newly proposed recursive unit root test for explosiveness, which is known to be powerful to the periodically collapsing component. Although the evidence for explosiveness we found herein is not overwhelming, this study should at the very least serve as a warning against a blind application of standard unit root tests to budget deficits, which may harbor components that periodically collapse.     

The U.S. immigration crisis

A review of the factors affecting immigration to the United States is presented. The authors develop the argument that present levels of immigration, particularly illegal immigration, are detrimental to U.S. interests, and that current global population trends will make this situation progressively worse. Stricter controls on immigration are considered.