上海与东盟国家贸易实证分析

从上海与东盟双边贸易发展特点入手,使用贸易结合度和产业内贸易指数等进行实证分析,得出上海与东盟双边贸易正逐步从基于外生比较优势的产业间贸易走向基于内生比较优势的产立内贸易、形成互补性分工以及扩大双边贸易与经济合作潜力巨大的结论。     

中国与东盟双边贸易的潜力研究

随着中国与东盟在2021年正式互为最大的贸易伙伴，两者双边贸易的发展中蕴藏着巨大的潜力，而这些潜力受到的影响可以通过双边贸易总量、地理位置来进行大概测度。中国与东盟双边贸易的发展提供更多诸如加快我国产业转型升级、倒逼我国外贸法律政策进一步完善、深化双边产业交流与合作等机遇。结合中国与东盟双边贸易的经验，研究中国与东盟双边贸易未来的潜力，不仅可以促进中国与东盟双边贸易的未来更好的发展，还可以对我国未来自身及对外经贸的发展都产生积极的参考意义。     

浅析中国与东盟产业内贸易前景

20世纪90年代以来,中国与东盟的贸易额有了较大的增长,但是中国与东盟中的大多数国家同属于发展中国家,由于资源禀赋和发展阶段的相似性导致双边的产业间贸易前景不被看好,这不利于双边贸易的持续发展。国际贸易中还存在很大份额的产业内贸易,通常认为产业内贸易主要发生在发达国家之间,但是中国与东盟之间的贸易数据表明中国与东盟之间的产业内贸易正在逐年增多．中国与东盟各国不同的产业的发展情况不尽相同,双边应该针对各个产业的不同情况分别采取措施发展产业内贸易,推动双边形成产业链内合理分工的产业体系,促进双边贸易持续健康发展。     

中国与东盟主要国家贸易互补性比较研究

本文从实证分析的角度出发,运用贸易结合度、经常市场份额模型和贸易特化系数等工具研究了中国与东盟主要国家双边贸易的现状及其发展、中国与东盟主要国家双边贸易增长的源泉及其物质基础、中国与东盟主要国家双边贸易的产品结构及其变化,证明中国与东盟主要国家存在越来越强的贸易互补性,进而从产业间互补和产业内互补两个维度分析了中国与东盟主要国家的贸易互补关系及其产生原因。得出结论认为:中国与东盟主要国家之间存在越来越密切的贸易互补关系,构成了中国与东盟主要国家进行贸易合作的物质基础。     

中国与东盟贸易关系及结构分析

本文分析了中国与东盟的贸易关系与结构,认为中国与东盟近10年来贸易得到了迅速的发展,双边贸易总量、贸易依存度不断提升,同时工业制成品中资本与技术密集型产品的贸易额占双边贸易总额的比重在不断增加,而且存在着大量的产业内贸易。但是在对双边主要贸易产品的IIT指数测算中发现,与同质产品的水平产业内贸易相比,质量与价格有所差异的垂直产业内贸易起了主导作用。     

中国与东盟制造业产业内贸易分析

2002年11月4日中国与东盟签署《中国与东盟全面经济合作框架协议》,标志着中国一东盟自由贸易区建设的正式启动,2005年7月中国与东盟根据《货物贸易协议》开始相互实施全面降税.随着中国与东盟双边贸易关税不断减让,中国与东盟相互贸易取得了突飞猛进的发展.中国与东盟的制造业产业内贸易是中国与东盟相互贸易的重要方面.基于此,本文通过对中国与东盟五国2002-2011年10年间制造业产业内贸易数据的计算,并进一步分析中国与东盟五国的制造业产业内贸易现状及其原因,由此得出中国与东盟的贸易仍为产业间贸易,10年间中国与东盟制造业产业内贸易水平有所下降的结论.     

我国与东盟制造业产业内贸易问题研究

本文阐述了产业内贸易的定义并对制造业产业内贸易总体发展趋势进行了实证研究，并揭示了我国与东盟制造业产业内贸易发展的动因，最后提出了发展我国与东盟制造业产业内贸易的基本途径。     

我国与东盟制造业产业内贸易状况分析

我国和东盟之间制造业的贸易正从传统的产业间贸易转向以产业内贸易为主，而且这一趋势正在不断加强。文章阐述了产业内贸易的定义并对制造业产业内贸易总体发展趋势进行了实证研究．并揭示了我国与东盟制造业产业内贸易发展的动因。     

关于打造CAFTA升级版的研究——东盟与中国贸易往来的启示

中国—东盟自由贸易区的建设为中国和东盟10国的贸易往来作出了巨大贡献,打造CAFTA升级版是新形势下提高双边贸易质量、推动双边贸易继续快速发展的有效途径。文章运用2000-2013年中国—东盟进出口货物贸易数据进行统计分析,揭示了中国—东盟双边贸易存在的严重不平衡关系;对比东盟与其他主要贸易伙伴的贸易协议,找出中国—东盟自贸区贸易协议存在的缺陷。为此,文章提出2点建议:(1)平衡双边贸易,追求共赢发展;(2)加速产业升级,实现产品良性互补。     

中国-东盟区域产业内贸易分析及对策研究

产业内贸易是世界贸易发展的主要趋势。作为发展中国家最大的自贸区,中国-东盟区域产业内贸易发展必然带动成员国贸易结构调整,夯实经贸交流基础。目前,双边贸易仍以产业间贸易为主,产业内贸易水平发展较低;在产业内贸易发展过程中,垂直异质型贸易发展较快,且呈现上升趋势,需要进一步采取改善措施。     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

Multilateralism,Regionalism, Bilateral and Crossregional Free Trade Arrangements: All Paved with Good Intentions for ASEAN?

Current initiatives in Asia and Asia Pacific regionalism are responses to regionalism happening elsewhere in the context of globalization, information communication technology and knowledge-based economy. The conclusion is that many economies are 'having it both ways' in multilateralism under World Trade Organization (WTO) and new regionalism. The argument is that the 'first best' theory of free trade under multilateralism and WTO have fallen short. A 'second best' theory of new regionalism has been acknowledged by the Doha ministerial declaration to complement and supplement WTO. Both Asia challenged Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) are challenged by ASEAN Plus Three (APT), which originated from the Asian crisis in the failed Asian Monetary Fund (AMF).
  Singapore has responded to these challenges in bilateral trading agreements, driven by its idiosyncratic features of a small, city–state economy and frustrated by laggard ASEAN. Increasingly, there is a divergence in macroeconomic policy between Singapore and ASEAN in terms of openness and competition. The dilemma in Singapore's strategy of bilateral trading agreements and foreign economic trade policy is precisely this divergence in macroeconomic philosophy and policy. The pressure on ASEAN is no less from APT, China and regionalism elsewhere than from Singapore. However, the present paper concedes that bilateral and crossregional trading arrangements are still second best, and that broader regionalism and multilateralism are still superior. With so many regional trading arrangements and emerging competition policy there may be rules of origin or 'spaghetti bowl' effects for Singapore. In 'realpolitiks' and real political economy, the balancing of gains and benefits is not easy.     

China＇s Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea： A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia's recovery from the recent global financial and economic crisis highlights China's position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast‐growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China's FTAs with East Asian major economies: China–ASEAN, China–Japan, China–Korea and ASEAN+3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China's output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN+3. Because forming a region‐wide FTA, such as the ASEAN+3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China should continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a medium‐term and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a region‐wide FTA.     

Impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on China＇s International Agricultural Trade and Its Regional Development

This study aims to examine the impact of the China‐ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) on China's international agricultural trade and its regional agricultural development, using the Global Trade Analysis Project model and the China Agricultural Decision Support System. Our analysis showed that: (i) CAFTA will improve resource allocation efficiencies for both China and ASEAN and will promote bilateral agricultural trade and, hence, will have positive effects on the economic development of both sides; (ii) CAFTA will accelerate China's export of the agricultural commodities in which it has comparative advantages, such as vegetables, wheat and horticultural products, but at the same time bring about a large increase in imports of commodities such as vegetable oil and sugar; and (iii) CAFTA will have significantly varying impacts on China's regional agricultural development because of large differences in the agricultural production structure in each region. Our results indicate that agriculture in the northern, northeastern and eastern regions of China will benefit from CAFTA, whereas agriculture development in southern China will suffer. Those regional specific impacts are quite different from the effects brought by multilateral free trade treaties, such as those of the WTO, which usually have positive effects on south China but negative impacts on the northern and western parts of China.     

中国与东盟国家贸易对中国经济增长影响的实证研究——基于不同生产要素密集型产品贸易的视角

东盟已连续十几年成为中国第五大贸易伙伴,因此研究中国与东盟贸易对中国经济增长的影响具有重要的意义。本文从不同生产要素密集型产品贸易的角度,运用协整分析技术和脉冲响应函数法,采用1987～2005年的数据,分析中国与东盟国家进出口贸易对中国经济增长的影响。研究显示:1987～2005年,在中国对东盟国家的出口贸易中,产品总体呈现技术密集程度越高,对中国经济增长促进作用越大的特点。但是,1987～2005年间中国自东盟国家进口的技术密集程度高的产品对我国经济增长却没有显现出明显的促进作用。     

Assessing the trade impacts of the ASEAN + 6 FTA for Lao PDR

Using an unbalanced panel dataset of bilateral exports from 1992 to 2009, we assess the potential trade impacts of the expansion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6 on the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). It is found that bilateral exports are positively related to overall bilateral country size and similarity in country size but inversely related to the factor endowment differences, transportation costs, and import tariffs. Simulation results show that the formation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) between ASEAN and the Plus‐6 economies (the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in East Asia; and the other three economies of Australia, India, and New Zealand) could increase bilateral trade between the Lao PDR and ASEAN + 6 by US$1 billion, and ASEAN + 3 by US$981 million. Nonetheless, the trade balance of the Lao PDR is likely to worsen in both the ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6 PTAs because they stimulate more imports than exports.     

多维视角下美中贸易巨额逆差成因的实证研究

近年来,美中贸易逆差额不断攀升导致双边贸易争端此起彼伏,严重影响了两国正常的经贸关系和政治互信。美方将贸易失衡归咎为人民币汇率,而中方则指出两国贸易失衡的症结并非人民币汇率,压迫人民币升值的做法并不能从根本上解决问题,双方冲突和利益博弈行为日趋严重。在此背景下,作者以1990-2011年的美中贸易、汇率等相关数据为研究对象,从经济和政治因素出发,将人民币汇率、国际投资、全球分工、统计误差和消费储蓄等因素纳入分析,从多维视角对美中贸易逆差成因进行了定量实证分析。研究发现,美中贸易逆差的成因缘自美国、东盟对中国直接投资以及中国香港、台湾和澳门地区对中国内地的直接投资、双方的统计误差以及人民币汇率三组因素,人民币汇率并非美中贸易逆差的主要因素。在基于资产所有权的贸易净额统计方法下,作者对美中贸易的历年贸易净额进行了重新估算。美方数据结果显示,在美国报道的对中国的贸易逆差中,其数据统计被夸大;而中方数据结果显示,中国直到2006年才从对美贸易逆差转为顺差。作者认为,人民币汇率并非美中贸易失衡的主要因素,该问题之所以争论不断,主要是源于美方经济问题政治化的诉求。     

中国—东盟服务贸易一体化的困境摆脱及其前景

运用相关指标对一体化水平进行的研究表明,中国与东盟国家的服务贸易一体化显示出以下特点:跨境贸易规模扩大;双边贸易增长率比单个国家快;以直接投资近似表现的商业存在规模占本国对外直接投资比重大;投资的行业和地区分布非均衡等。现阶段中国—东盟服务贸易一体化水平较低,但增长速度远远超过欧盟等区域组织。中国—东盟服务贸易一体化的前景看好。     

中国-东盟FTA贸易效应实证研究

中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的成立对中国和东盟国家具有重要的经济与政治意义。本文利用一个扩展后的引力模型对CAFTA的贸易效应进行了实证分析。结果显示:CAFTA对区内贸易具有显著扩大效应的同时也显著地促进了与非成员之间的贸易;CAFTA符合"自然的贸易伙伴"的事前贸易关系紧密和空间距离接近标准;同时,CAFTA成员间产品出口结构以互补性为主;进一步降低成员间贸易壁垒、加强贸易合作对CAFTA成员间和世界贸易的扩大具有积极意义。