Stochastic dominance and behavior towards risk: The market for Internet stocks

Internet stocks registered large gains in the late 1990s, followed by large losses from early 2000. Using stochastic dominance theory, we infer how investor risk preferences have changed over this cycle, and relate our findings to utility theory and behavioral finance. Our major findings are as follows. First, risk averters and risk seekers show a distinct difference in preference for Internet versus “old economy” stocks. This difference is most evident during the bull market period (1998–2000) where Internet stocks stochastically dominate old economy stocks for risk seekers but not risk averters. In the bear market, risk averters show an increased preference for old economy stocks, while risk seekers show a reduced preference for Internet stocks. These results are inconsistent with prospect theory and indicate that investors exhibit reverse S-shaped utility functions.     

On the simultaneity bias in the relationship between risk attitudes,entry into entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial survival

We consider the simultaneity bias when examining the effect of individual risk attitudes on entrepreneurship. We demonstrate that entry into self-employment is related to changes in risk attitudes. We further show that these changes are correlated with the probability to remain in entrepreneurship.     

Axiomatic reference-dependence in behavior toward others and toward risk

Summary. This paper considers the applicability of the standard separability axiom for both risk and other-regarding preferences, and advances arguments why separability might fail. An alternative axiom, which is immune to these arguments, leads to a preference representation that is additively separable in a reference variable and the differences between the other variables and the reference variable. For other-regarding preferences the reference variable is the decision-maker’s own payoff, and the resulting representation coincides with the Fehr-Schmidt model. For risk preferences the reference variable is initial wealth, and the resulting representation is a generalization of prospect theory.Received: 28 April 2004, Revised: 27 April 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: D81, D64.An earlier version of this paper was titled “An Axiomatic Characterization of the Fehr-Schmidt Model of Inequity Aversion.” I am grateful to Rachel Croson, Jill Stowe, and Karl Vind for helpful comments. Financial support was provided by the Private Enterprise Research Center, the Program in the Economics of Public Policy, and the Program to Enhance Scholarly and Creative Activities.     

Rent, risk, and replication: Preference adaptation in winner-take-all markets

We study the evolution of an economy where agents who are heterogeneous with respect to risk attitudes can either earn a certain income or enter a risky rent-seeking contest. We assume that agents behave rationally given their preferences, but that the population distribution of preferences evolves over time in response to material payoffs. We show that, in particular, initial distributions with full support converge to stationary states where all types are still present. Although rents are perfectly dissipated in material terms at a steady state, efficiency is greater than if everybody had been risk neutral, since risk lovers specialize in rent seeking.     

关于教育与就业关系的一个理论模型及实证检验

In this paper, we divide the process of educational development into two aspects: the change in educational structure and the expansion of educational scale. Based on this hypothesis, we analyze the relationships between each of the two aspects and employment respectively. In this paper, the factors and the transmission mechanism of the influence that education has on employment are also explained. Then, the theoretical models of the relationship between education and employment are built up. Finally, we use the empirical data collected in China to test the theoretical models and give explanations to the status quo of the unemployment structure within various educational levels. It suggests that: the development of education in China at present is beneficial to the increase in the employment rate, the increase in the proportion of the laborers with junior school education has negative effects on employment, and the development of higher education creates positive effects on the employment, but no evidence shows any significant correlation between the proportion of the laborers with senior high school education and the unemployment rate. Translated from Xin Zhengzhi Jingjixue Pinglun 新政治经济学评论 (Review of New Political Economy), 2006, 2(1): 46–69     

Monetary policy as bad medicine: The volatile relationship between business cycles and asset prices

Austrian business cycle theory has become an important point of focus in controversial mainstream discussions regarding the role of asset prices in monetary policy. In this article, the relation between asset prices and the Austrian business cycle theory is examined. The analysis focuses on how central banking supports optimism, resulting in the redirection of entrepreneurial activity and knowledge via asset price bubbles. The crucial role of credit expansion for asset price booms is also analyzed. Following this analysis, the implications for monetary policy are deduced.

Valuing environmental and health risk in agriculture: A choice experiment approach to pesticides in Italy

The widespread use of pesticides in agriculture shows a complex ramification of multiple negative externalities, ranging from food safety-related effects to the deterioration of farmland ecosystems. Recent research has demonstrated that the assessment of the economic implications of such negative processes is fraught with many uncertainties. This paper presents the results of an empirical study recently conducted in Northern Italy aimed at estimating the economic value of reducing the wide-ranging impacts of pesticide use, by deploying a Choice Experiment approach. The experimental design provides a meaningful tool to assign monetary values to the negative environmental effects associated with agrochemicals use. In this connection, the paper addresses in particular the reduction of farmland biodiversity, groundwater contamination and harm to human health. The resulting estimates confirm that, on average, respondents demonstrate a substantial willingness-to-pay a premium for agricultural goods (in particular, foodstuffs) produced in environmentally-benign ways.     

A percolation model of eco-innovation diffusion: The relationship between diffusion, learning economies and subsidies

An obstacle to the widespread adoption of environmentally friendly energy technologies such as stationary and mobile fuel cells is their high upfront costs. While much lower prices seem to be attainable in the future due to learning curve cost reductions that increase rapidly with the scale of diffusion of the technology, there is a chicken and egg problem, even when some consumers may be willing to pay more for green technologies. Drawing on recent percolation models of diffusion, we develop a network model of new technology diffusion that combines contagion among consumers with heterogeneity of agent characteristics. Agents adopt when the price falls below their random reservation price drawn from a lognormal distribution, but only when one of their neighbors has already adopted. Combining with a learning curve for the price as a function of the cumulative number of adopters, this may lead to delayed adoption for a certain range of initial conditions. Using agent-based simulations we explore when a limited subsidy policy can trigger diffusion that would otherwise not happen. The introduction of a subsidy policy seems to be highly effective for a given high initial price level only for learning economies in a certain range. Outside this range, the diffusion of a new technology either never takes off despite the subsidies, or the subsidies are unnecessary. Perhaps not coincidentally, this range seems to correspond to the values observed for many successful innovations.     

Testing the relationship between competition and efficiency in banking: A panel data analysis

The relationship between competition and efficiency in the banking sectors of five EU countries is investigated using Granger-type causality test estimations. We find positive causation between market power and efficiency, whereas the causality running from efficiency to competition is weak.     

The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Europe: a theoretical and empirical analysis

The role of insurance companies, although growing in importance in financial intermediation, has received less attention than bank and stock markets and if so, mainly as a provider of risk transfer in single country or very heterogeneous samples. We investigate both the impact of insurance investment and premiums on GDP growth in Europe. We conduct a cross-country panel data analysis from 1992 to 2005 for 29 European countries. We find a positive impact of life insurance on GDP growth in the EU-15 countries, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. For the New EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe, we find a larger impact for liability insurance. Furthermore our findings emphasise the impact of the real interest rate and the level of economic development on the insurance-growth nexus. We argue that the insurance sector needs to be paid more attention in financial sector analysis and macroeconomic policy.

The relationship between research funding and academic consulting: An empirical investigation in the Spanish context

This paper investigates the relationship between sources of funding for research activity and the engagement of scientists in a specific type of knowledge transfer, that is, academic consulting. We rely on a sample of 2603 individual scientists from five Spanish universities, who have been awarded public funding or have been principal investigators in activities contracted by external agents, over the period 1999–2004. We find that externally contracted research is positively related to the amount of monetary income from consulting contracts, but that international competitive funding has a negative effect. Our results show that this negative effect is positively moderated by the size of contract funding: the effect of international competitive funding becomes positive for moderate and high levels of contract funding. By investigating the relationship between academic consulting and different types of research funding, our paper sheds light on the conditions that favor academic consulting.     

我国城市化发展与耕地变化的关系——对国内相关研究的综述

在我国，城市化发展与耕地变化之间的关系一直以来就是人们研究的热点问题，不少专家和学者从不同角度进行了深入的研究。本文对国内有关这一问题的研究做一个简要的综述，并认为目前的研究在内容上较为全面、方法上比较科学，但在城市化发展与耕地质量变化的关系以及城市化发展与耕地数量变动问一般规律的探索等方面还存在不足，需要进一步深入研究。     

The Exchange Rate and Inflation in Argentina: A Classical Critique of Orthodox and Heterodox Policy Prescriptions

In this paper we present an alternative framework to neoclassical theory of international trade and exchange rate determination. Our model, inspired in the classical tradition, provides support for the assertion that an exchange rate policy aiming to improve national competitiveness and to bring about a sustained trade surplus is a viable option. In fact, the success of this strategy does not depend on the effectiveness of monetary sterilization —as many argentinean heterodox authors claim— but on the ability to overcome the boundaries imposed by the evolution of the domestic wage rate and the potential emergence of competitive devaluations. In the particular case of Argentina, the introduction of export taxes on land-intensive commodities, in which the economy has absolute advantages, brings an additional policy tool that can make both the exchange rate target and the workers claims consistent.     

中国产权制度与经济绩效关系研究述评

中国产权制度与经济绩效关系的研究主要有三个视角:一是产权制度的渐进及增量改革与经济绩效之间的关系,认为产权制度的渐进及增量改革影响了生产要素的配置效率,从而增进了经济绩效;二是产权制度的真实保护与经济绩效之间的关系,认为存在一种替代性的制度,使中国要素主体的产权得到了真实的保护,从而客观上增进了经济绩效;三是产权制度的非均衡保护与经济绩效之间的关系,认为中国政府对要素主体的产权进行非均衡保护才是增进经济绩效的根本原因。这三个视角在逻辑上有一个由微观向宏观扩展的过程。本文认为,第三个视角更好地解释了中国经济增长的奇迹,因为中国的实践证明,在经济起飞阶段,产权保护的非均衡比产权保护本身更为重要。     

微型金融机构双重目标的冲突与治理:研究进展述评

微型金融机构要同时实现财务可持续(财务目标)与减缓贫困(社会目标)两大目标,然而,这两个目标间的冲突问题却长期困扰着其发展。本文系统整理了国内外有关微型金融机构双重目标冲突与治理领域的理论与实证文献,研究发现对微型金融机构双重目标是否冲突在理论和实证研究中均存在争议。伴随着微型金融商业化,目标偏离已成为双重目标冲突的新表现,但通过实施社会绩效管理,微型金融机构可以有效地降低双重目标间的冲突。虽然我国农村金融机构双重目标冲突问题已经显现,但相关研究并不多。因此,我国未来的研究应该集中在界定农村金融机构双重目标含义、构建评估体系、制定报告标准、探索双重目标约束下的可持续发展机制等方面。     

东亚区域经济合作新模式:中国-东盟自由贸易区

2001年11月在第五次东盟与中国领导人（10＋1）会议上，中国与东盟达成一致，确立了10年内建成中国－东盟自由贸易区的目标。这对双方关系的长远发展和东亚地区的繁荣稳定具有深远意义。它是中国继加入世界贸易组织后又一件对外经贸方面的重大事件。本就这一东亚区域合作的新模式产生的国际背景，以及实现目标所面临的困难进行分析。     

多维经济效率视角下的企业合并反垄断规制——兼评"可口可乐与汇源合并案"

由于新古典经济学静态模型依托的有限相关市场假设、绝对进入壁垒假设、单一定价策略假设均不能成立,企业合并形成的行业巨头在大多数情况下不会对静态配置效率、动态效率和X-效率的多维经济效率造成损害.因此,在一般市场中,应放松对企业合并的反垄断规制,而在两类特殊市场中,则应加强标准化管理.     

劳动与资本在价值创造中的正和关系研究

在传统剩余价值论的架构中,劳动与资本在价值创造中只存在零和关系。本文试图在劳动价值论的前提下,论证劳动与资本在价值创造中可能存在的正和关系。经历了有关资本主义劳动过程的长期争论,多数西方马克思主义者认为,发达资本主义经济中存在着工人技能升级的长期趋势。这一点为我们运用"成正比"理论奠定了经验的前提。劳动生产率与单位时间创造的价值量成正比的理论,在国内已有半个世纪的历史。本文进一步发展了这一理论,将其运用于分析以技术变革和劳动复杂程度提高为基础的价值形成过程,并据以论述了劳动与资本之间的正和关系得以实现的经济条件。这种在不同层面存在的正和关系构成了相对剩余价值规律的抵销因素。