Pension reform with migration and mobile capital: is a Pareto improvement possible?

This paper shows that in a two-country two-overlapping-generations model with migration, capital mobility and an immobile production factor (land), a locally welfare-improving pension reform at the cost of the neighboring country is possible if land plays a minor role in production. Furthermore, differences in the size of the PAYG pension schemes between the countries distort the international allocation of labour and capital. As a result, a Pareto-improving pension reform is possible if countries employ PAYG pension schemes of different size, provided that a federal government exists that redistributes benefits and losses of the reform both intergenerationally and internationally.     

Demographic Change,International Trade and Capital Flows

Trade in goods that are not perfect substitutes can considerably change the predictions of standard neoclassical models about the effects of demographic developments. This paper considers a relative decrease in the population size of one country, when countries specialize in the production of different intermediate goods. The degree of substitutability is crucial for the direction of capital flows between the countries and for the development of wages. The less those goods are substitutes, the stronger the long-run international spillover effects of a demographic shock will be. For the interest rate effects, also international differences in saving rates due to e.g., different pension schemes have to be taken into account.     

退休年龄与养老保险基金危机——基于养老保险基金收支影响因素的视角

退休制度和养老限险制度都是为了保障劳动者晚年生活而制定的，然而养老保险危机在多个国家出现并产生重大破坏，引起全球范围内的养老保险制度改革。退休年龄的改变往往是改革的重要内容。文章分别对现收现付制和完全积累制的养老保险基金进行了因素分析．肯定了提高退休年龄通过降低赡养率和被动率，分剐可以改善现收现付制和完全积累制养老保险基金的收支状况，缓解养老保险危机。但是否实行提高退休年龄的政策，还要对社会、经济因素进行奎面考虑。     

Demographic threat to the economy: Macroanalysis of Russia’s pension system

The pension reform in our country that is based on insurance principles has surpassed the second decade, and many elements that were originally written proceeding from speculative designs and successful practice in Western countries have acquired actual features (quantitative and qualitative). In the first place, this is relevant for its principally new elements—the accumulative pension provision methods. This paper analyzes the external and internal factors in the development of the pension system and their effect on the current and future state of the system and gives a forecast of the financial stability of the pension system in the long-term outlook.     

Risk Control of Pension Fund Management in China

Based on an analysis of China's current pension system, the present paper indicates that risk control of pension fund management is a serious policy challenge for the Chinese Government. Although some reform efforts have been made, there are still serious institutional and capital market risks that are difficult to overcome but are key in the success of China's pension reform. To ensure a smooth transition in pension reform, China not only needs to build a better institutional framework and facilitate capital market development, but also raise the risk awareness of individual pensioners.     

Time preference and two-country trade

We present a dynamic two-country model of international trade with endogenous time preference. We show that if the two countries have similar preferences, production technologies and labor endowments, there exists a unique and stable steady state such that both consumption and investment goods are produced in both countries. Unlike the case of constant time preferences, the steady state is independent of the initial international distribution of capital. We prove a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin theorem such that the labor-abundant country exports the labor-intensive good.     

Is there any gain from social security privatization?

Increasing calls for a social security reform of switching from the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system to a funded system has been seen in recent decades. This paper examines the effect of this reform on capital accumulation and the welfare of each generation. Three methods are used to finance the pension debt, government debt financing, tax financing, and government asset financing. With government debt or tax financing, the market equilibrium remains unchanged and all generations are as well off in the new system as in the PAYG system. Thus, switching from the PAYG system to a funded system is neutral. With government asset financing, the interest rate will decrease, private capital will increase, but the total output may either increase or decrease. The welfare effect is also ambiguous in general, depending on the rate of return of government assets. With plausible parameters, our simulation shows that the reform will lower the interest rate, increase private capital, and lower government capital in the short run, but raise government capital and increase output in the long run.     

Technology advantage,terms of trade,and pattern of trade

We develop a two-country, two-sector model of trade, and assume that the differences between two countries are not only the diversities of human capital distributions but also relative production technologies. We find that, in addition to the diversity effect, both the terms of trade effect and the relative technology effect can also matter for the pattern of trade. We prove that, unlike previous results, if combination of the terms of trade effect and the relative technology effect dominates the diversity effect, then a country with more diverse human capital will export goods produced by supermodular technology.     

Patterns of Trade and Growth across Cones

This paper examines the implications of the Heckscher-Ohlin (HO) Model for the patterns of production and trade that will emerge as a country grows. It focuses primarily on world equilibria that include two or more cones of diversification. Starting with the textbook model of two factors and two goods, growth paths for production and trade are derived in terms of a country's capital-labor ratio relative to that of the world. With additional goods and countries, multiple cones create a ladder of comparative advantage that a country will climb as it accumulates capital relative to the world. With additional factors as well, more complicated patterns can emerge. In a three-factor model based on Krueger (1977), a country with fixed land, growing labor, and faster growing capital can first work its way down the ladder of comparative advantage before climbing back up. Using a graphical representation due to Leamer (1987) of a more general three-factor model, cones of diversification with large numbers of goods take the form of polygons that a growing country may pass through, then cross between. In all cases, the lesson of the HO Model is that growth causes repeated and extreme changes in patterns of specialization and trade over time.     

The Structural Pension Reform in Chile: Effects, Comparisons with Other Latin American Reforms, and Lessons

Chile pioneered a structural reform in Latin America that privatizedits public pension system and influenced similar reforms inanother nine countries. Twenty-five years later, this articleevaluates the macroeconomic, microeconomic, and social effectsof this reform in Chile and the other countries in the region,and extracts lessons from those experiences. Fiscal costs ofthe reform have been high and prolonged, exceeded capital accumulation,and had a negative impact on national savings, but Chile's reformhas contributed to the development of capital markets; employer'scontributions were eliminated or reduced in half of the countriesand the worker's share in the total contribution averages 65per cent; competition is afflicted by a small number of administratorsand a high level of concentration; administrative costs arehigh and stagnant; capital returns are fair but declining; portfoliodiversification has been achieved only in Chile and Peru; labour-forcecoverage has declined in all ten countries, and gender and incomeinequalities have expanded. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: aarenas{at}dipres.gob.cl; cmesa{at}usa.net     

南通民办养老机构发展现状调查分析

目的:调查南通民办养老机构的发展现状,以期为促进南通民办养老机构发展提供理论依据。方法:对南通30家民办养老机构及入住的301位老人进行了问卷调查,内容包括民办养老机构的基本状况、经营管理状况、服务人员状况、入住老人状况等调查。结果:南通旧的养老观念根深蒂固;民办养老机构自身完善程度不足,不能满足老年人多层次、多样化需求;社会投入不足;养老服务人员数量较少、素质较低。结论:理念驱动、营造良好工作氛围,给老年人提供多层次、多样化的服务,重视入住老人的精神和心理需求,加大政策扶持、资金支持力度,加强专业养老服务队伍建设,探索"养医结合"模式的改革。     

养老金入市的国际经验借鉴与我国的政策选择

针对国内各界对我国养老金入市的忧虑问题,本文通过对国际主流国家养老金入市的具体做法进行比较分析,认为我国养老金入市有其必要性,同时也具备一定的可行性,我国养老金入市是大势所趋,重点在于政策方面的选择,应该尽快设置独立的监管机构,放松"数量限制"规则并向"谨慎人"规则转变,推出独立的养老金个人账户,增加个人选择的自由度,并以资本市场为主要的投资领域,谨慎向其他市场拓展。     

Crisis and Pension System Design in the EU: International Spillover Effects Via Factor Mobility and Trade

Many European Union states have adjusted pension benefits or reformed the pension system in reaction to the recent economic crisis, while other member states have postponed this type of adjustments. In this paper we study to what extent countries that responded quickly to the crisis are harmed by the lingering in other member states via international spillover effects caused by factor mobility and trade. We show that this depends crucially on the degree of labour mobility in the short run. In fact, countries with more flexible pensions can benefit from the inflexibility of pensions in other countries if they can temporarily limit immigration.     

Generational incidence of savings taxation versus capital-income taxation

This paper examines the incidence of capital taxation in a model in which the taxation of capital is clearly justifiable and using analytical techniques from the tax reform literature. The taxation of capital has long been a controversial issue, with much of the literature concluding that savings/capital-income should not be taxed. Recently, however, Blackorby and Brett have shown in a model with several desirable features that it can be optimal to tax capital, and they provide a simple yet compelling argument in favor of both savings taxation and capital-income taxation. We use the Blackorby–Brett model (i.e. a model in which the taxation of capital can be justified) to revisit the question of the incidence of capital taxation. We focus on the generational incidence of capital taxation; that is, the incidence on a young generation and an old generation. However, an interpretation in terms of the incidence on "capital" versus "labor" (as is traditional in the tax incidence literature) is also provided.     

“治安”作为公共物品的新制度经济学分析

"治安"是一种既包含纯公共物品又包含准公共物品的混合型公共物品,但也不排除其可以作为私人物品的形态。治安服务主要由政府提供,但也不排斥非政府的供给,政府性治安供给与市场性治安供给并行的二元供给格局,是英美国家的发展潮流,也是我国警务改革的一个方向。     

Social Transfer Benefits and Retirement Decisions: Evidence from South Africa

Population aging poses a new challenge to the fiscal sustainability of social security programs around the globe. As life expectancy increases, among other reasons, many governments in developed countries have begun to reform key features of their programs, such as increasing the eligibility age for access to social benefits. However, as in the case of South Africa, some opt to decrease the eligibility age for access to such pension benefits. The South African old age pension, which is one of the most expansive cash transfers in developing countries, puts a significant monthly cash transfer in the hands of its recipients. This cash transfer is conditioned on age and a means test that is very generous to most South Africans. In this paper, we seek to understand the impact of such an increase in non‐labour income on the labour force participation of older men by exploiting a phased‐in reduction in pension eligibility age. We estimate that, at the median predicted market wage, pension age‐eligibility reduces the probability of labour force participation by approximately 9.85% points for single males and 15.45% points for married males.     

How and why China succeeded in her economic reform

After describing the economic institutions to be reformed, including the production sectors of agriculture and state industry, consumer demand under rationing, price control and centralized distribution, capital formation, foreign trade and investment, and the economic planning system, this paper outlines seven major steps in the reform process: the responsibility system in agriculture, fostering rural markets and private and collective enterprises, reform of state enterprises, price reform, decontrol of consumer goods, the open-door policy, and change in the role of government planning. The characteristics of the reform process contributing to its success are the strong support of the population and government officials, the absence of a blueprint to begin with, the extensive use of experiments, the pragmatic attitude of the reformers, the stability of the political system and the attempt to maintain a fairly stable price level.     

比较优势、贸易结构与资本积累：对Mazumdar假说适用性的检验及其扩展

Mazumdar（1996）的研究认为：当一国为资本品净进口国和消费品净出口国时,资本品的进口将导致资本品价格的下降进而引致折旧率的下降,结合Solow增长模型,折旧率的下降将促使一国投资率的上升并引致资本积累。本文运用中国数据对这一假说检验后认为：该理论只适用于小国贸易模式,对于诸如中国这样的贸易大国,比较优势决定下的贸易结构完全符合Mazumdar条件,但资本品进口和消费品出口并没有对中国资本积累起到促进作用,根本原因在于这样的贸易结构往往提高了资本品一消费品的相对甚至绝对价格,并最终恶化了中国的贸易条件,使得贸易收益并不明显。本文围绕这些这些问题进行了一定层次的论证。     

Pooling my personal account: Income responses to the payroll tax in China

Developing countries collect not only a far lower share of GDP in taxes, but also less payroll taxes than rich countries. This paper explores income responses to the payroll tax by evaluating the 2006 pension reform that subtracted 3 percentage points of employees' Defined Contribution account in China. First, our estimate of total income elasticity with respect to the pension rate is larger than 2, implying a lower optimal payroll tax rate than in rich countries. Second, we separate total income into labor and non-labor income, and show significant income shifting from labor to non-labor income. Third, we provide suggestive evidence that income responses to the pension reform are from evasion rather than real responses. We emphasize the necessity of administrative capacity for developing countries to extend the pension system. Remarkably, sharing the employer payroll tax with employees may be a self-enforcement mechanism, similar to the value-added tax, of the payroll tax.     

Attitudes Towards Foreign Products and Welfare with Capital Mobility

We develop a model of trade with imperfect competition to study the welfare implications in developing and developed countries of the asymmetry in attitudes towards foreign products. In the developed country, consumers benefit from a better perception of foreign products while the rental rate of capital declines as long as the location of capital remains unchanged. However, when capital is mobile, the developing country hosts more and more capital at the expense of the developed country as perception of varieties produced in the developed country improves and the surplus of consumers in the developed country can decrease.