Deep habits in consumption: a spatial panel analysis using scanner data

Using scanner data from a large European retailer, this paper empirically assesses deep habit formation in consumption. Deep habit formation constitutes a possible source of price stickiness and helps to mimic procyclical labour and real wage dynamics that are present in macrodata. To gauge the existence and the extent of deep habits in consumption, we estimate a dynamic time–space simultaneous model for consumption expenditure at different levels of product aggregation. This spatial panel model enables us to test for both internal and external deep habit formation at the same time. The former captures inertia or persistence in consumption and is included in the empirical specification as a time lag. The latter captures preference interdependence across households and is captured by a spatial lag. Our results show mixed evidence with respect to internal habit formation, whereas the external habit effect is almost always positive and significant.     

Human capital and economic growth revisited: A dynamic panel data study

This paper examines the role of human capital on economic growth by using a large panel of data including 93 countries. Given the cross-sectional character in most of the relevant studies, there is a possibility that when the long-run dynamics are considered, education might not be a significant determinant of growth. Following a dynamic panel data approach, the analysis indicates that education has, indeed, a significant and positive long-run effect on economic growth. Moreover, the size of this effect is stronger as the level of education (primary, secondary, and tertiary) increases. This has a straightforward policy implication that governments taking actions towards an expansion of their higher education may well expect larger gains in terms of higher economic growth in their countries. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Fifty-first International Atlantic Economic Conference, Athens, Greece, March 13–20, 2001, and also at the conference on Post-Euro Era at the University of Ioannina, Greece, January 27–28, 2000. The authors would like to thank participants in both conferences and, in particular, Nick Apergis for his comments and useful suggestions on earlier drafts. The authors remain responsible for any shortcomings of the paper.     

Energy consumption and economic growth in the United States

We study the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP in the USA using a multivariate time-varying model [1973Q1–2014Q1]. We show that the combination of disaggregation into specific fuels and time variation gives more nuanced results than the alternatives for the USA. Specifically, we find that the Granger causal relationship between total energy and real US GDP is bi-directional through much of the 1990s, but unidirectional running from real US GDP to energy consumption in the 2000s. As for each fuel, similar patterns of change were observed in the causal relationship between coal consumption and real US GDP. Oil consumption largely shows a bi-directional relationship between consumption and US GDP, especially after 2009. And natural gas consumption shows a brief period in the early-to-mid 2000s where US GDP predicts energy consumption, but primarily shows that natural gas consumption and economic growth are independent.     

Democracy and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: a panel data approach

This paper studies the link between democracy and economic development for 28 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980–2005 in a panel data framework. A democracy index constructed from the Freedom House indices. A variety of panel data unit root and cointegration tests are applied. The variables are found to be integrated of order one and cointegrated. The Blundell–Bond system generalized methods-of-moments is employed to conduct a panel error-correction mechanism based causality test within a vector autoregressive structure. Economic growth is found to cause democracy in the short-run, while bidirectionality is uncovered in the long-run. In addition, the long-run coefficients are estimated through the panel fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares methods. Democracy has a positive impact on GDP and vice versa. These results lend support to the virtuous cycle hypothesis.     

Oil consumption and economic efficiency: A comparative analysis of advanced, developing and emerging economies

This paper investigates the economic efficiency-oil consumption relationship in 42 countries during the period 1986-2006. In a first stage by using DEA window analysis countries' economic efficiencies are obtained. In a second stage an econometric analysis based on robust GMM estimators reveals an inverted ‘U’-shape relationship between oil consumption and economic efficiency. In order to capture heterogeneities among countries' development stages the analysis has been separated into two groups (advanced economies and developing/emerging economies). The results show that advanced economies have much higher turning points compared to emerging and developing economies. It appears that oil consumption increases countries' economic efficiency. In addition the consumption patterns of oil products and its derivatives have changed through years and among countries. The different turning points from the econometric analysis indicate the dependence of oil consumption in advanced economies (higher turning points) is driven mainly by household purchasing activities and their standards of living (transport, housing and water, food, etc.). Finally, it appears that oil consumption is the main driver behind the progress of industrialization and urbanization regardless of the country's development stage.     

Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach

This paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and GDP for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002. Based on the income levels defined by the World Bank, the data are divided into four categories: low income group, lower middle income group, upper middle income group, and high income group. We employ the GMM-SYS approach for the estimation of the panel VAR model in each of the four groups. Afterwards, the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained. We discover: (a) in the low income group, there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; (b) in the middle income groups (lower and upper middle income groups), economic growth leads energy consumption positively; (c) in the high income group countries, economic growth leads energy consumption negatively. After further in-depth analysis of energy related data, the results indicate that, in the high income group, there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of CO₂. However, in the upper middle income group countries, after the energy crisis, the energy efficiency declines and the release of CO₂ rises. Since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups, a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries.     

Government accountability and fiscal discipline: A panel analysis using Swiss data

Government accountability through electoral engagement, involvement and participation in the political debate can affect government performance. Using data for the full sample of Swiss cantons over the 1981–2001 period, this paper provides empirical evidence that government accountability is crucial for fiscal discipline. Specifically, in cantons with high levels of government accountability, the level of indebtedness is significantly lower, indicating that accountability supports fiscal discipline. To obtain a useful approximation for government accountability between citizens and their representatives, we use information from direct voter participation in political decisions (initiatives and public referenda) in Swiss state (cantonal) governments. Electoral support of government proposals reveals an important aspect of accountability in a real world setting.     

Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China

This paper investigates the existence and direction of Granger causality between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in China, applying a multivariate model of economic growth, energy use, carbon emissions, capital and urban population. Empirical results for China over the period 1960-2007 suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. Evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth. Therefore, the government of China can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth.     

A panel data analysis of the growth effects of remittances

Many development economists believe that remittances by the migrant workers are an important source of funds for long run growth. Therefore, recent studies have investigated the growth effects remittances in the recipient countries but reached different conclusions. This paper analyses the strength of these effects with a common data set with alternative specifications and estimation methods. Our results show that the direct growth effects of remittances are insignificant. However, remittances may have small indirect growth effects.     

The effect of the Internet on economic growth: Evidence from cross-country panel data

Using cross-country panel data, we found evidence that the Internet plays a positive and significant role in economic growth after investment ratio, government consumption ratio, and inflation were used as control variables in the growth equation.     

Health expenditure models: A comparison using panel data

In this article, we focus on the estimation of outpatient expenditures with panel data. We model the logarithm of expenditures and consider five different models. The first two are two-part and sample selection cross-section models. Two-part panel data models turn out to be inappropriate for dealing with expenditures. We thus estimate sample selection models with panel data: one without a lagged dependent variable and two with a lagged dependent variable. These two latter models differ in their assumptions on the variance of the residuals. Modelling heteroscedasticity may indeed be important to avoid the bias due to the retransformation problem. We show that lagged dependent variables are important factors for heteroscedasticity. For the models with state dependence, we provide a new solution to the initial conditions problem by controlling for generalised residuals. We establish that panel data models highly improve the correlation explained by the model in the time-series dimension without damaging the fit in the cross-section dimension. For all indicators of fit, the model with state dependence and heteroscedasticity seems to dominate the others.     

Economic determinants of the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Canada: a panel data analysis

In this article, the economic determinants of the demand for three alcoholic beverages (wine, spirits, and beer) are investigated with a focus on the price, income and unemployment effects. The investigation is conducted within the fixed effects panel regression framework using a balanced panel for ten Canadian provinces spanning the years 1981–2004. The estimated own price elasticities indicate that increased government taxation is an effective tool for curtailing the consumption of spirits (at the expense of lower government tax revenue), but it is less effective for curtailing the consumption of wine or beer. The cross-price elasticity estimates reveal that taxing beer or spirits may not be an effective tool for encouraging consumption switch from these alcoholic beverages to wine in light of wine’s greater health benefits. Income emerges as an important determinant of the consumption of both wine and spirits but not of beer, whereas unemployment emerges as an important determinant of the consumption of beer but not of wine or spirits. With respect to unemployment, we find no support for the addiction hypothesis in the case of wine and spirits and strong support for the severe budget constraint hypothesis in the case of beer.     

Economic complexity,human capital and economic growth: empirical research based on cross-country panel data

Economic complexity reflects a country’s production capabilities and plays an important role in economic growth. This article measures the economic complexity of 210 countries using the method of reflections, and investigates the impact of economic complexity and human capital on economic growth. The measurement results show that there are significant differences regarding the level of complexity among countries. High-income economies have higher complexity than low- and middle-income economies. The empirical findings demonstrate that economic complexity and different levels of human capital have positive effects on long- and short-term growth. A positive interaction effect on economic growth exists between economic complexity and human capital. In addition, secondary education as a proxy for human capital has a relatively greater positive direct effect and a much stronger interactive effect with complexity on economic growth. In addition, the magnitude of the interaction effect between economic complexity and human capital on long- and short-term growth increases as the revealed comparative advantage threshold grows.     

On the optimality of public capital for long-run economic growth: evidence from panel data

The role of public capital in economic growth is examined using data from the Penn World Tables and other sources on a large number of countries. Drawing on intertemporal optimization, the theoretical framework nests the exogenous (Solow) and endogenous types of growth and is data-consistent. It is found that public capital makes a significant contribution to growth. The actual level of investment on public capital is suboptimal. Growth in recent decades can be characterized as ‘endogenous’ with little sign of convergence. There is evidence of a growth slow-down between the 1970s and 1980s. Human capital also significantly enhances growth.     

Energy distribution and economic growth

This research examines the physical constraints on the growth process. In order to run, maintain and build capital energy is required to be distributed to geographically dispersed sites where investments are deemed profitable. We capture this aspect of physical reality by a network theory of electricity distribution. The model leads to a supply relation according to which feasible electricity consumption per capita rises with the size of the economy, as measured by capital per capita. Specifically, the relation is a simple power law with an exponent assigned to capital that is bounded between 1/2 and 3/4, depending on the efficiency of the network. Together with an energy conservation equation, capturing instantaneous aggregate demand for electricity, we are able to provide a metabolic-energetic founded law of motion for capital per capita that is mathematically isomorphic to the one emanating from the Solow growth model. Using data for the 50 US states 1960–2000, we examine the determination of growth in electricity consumption per capita and test the model structurally. The model fits the data well. The exponent in the power law connecting capital and electricity is 2/3.     

Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach

Applying GMM (Arellano and Bond, 1991) to panel data of 90 countries spanning over 1992–2006, this paper explores possible relationships between military expenditure and economic growth. Based on the definitions of income levels by the World Bank – high, middle and low – our results indicate military spending leads negatively economic growth for the panels of low income countries with a marginally significance level of 10%. Of four different regional panels (Africa, Europe, the Middle East–South Asia and Pacific Rim), a negative but stronger (5% significance level) causal relationship from military expenditure to economic growth is found for the Europe and Middle East–South Asia regions.     

Inflation and economic growth in Latin America: Some panel time-series evidence

In this paper we investigate the role of macroeconomic performance, mainly in terms of rates of inflation, in determining economic growth in four Latin American countries which suffered hyperinflationary bursts in the 1980s and early 1990s, but that also differ in terms of development levels. The data set covers the period between 1970 and 2007, and the empirical results, based on panel time-series data and analysis, confirm the anecdotal evidence which suggests that inflation has had a detrimental effect to growth in the region. All in all, we highlight the fact that excessive inflation has clearly offset the Mundell–Tobin effect and consequently the high costs that inflation has had on economic activity in the region.     

Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member

This paper investigates the long run Granger causality relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in Turkey, controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor. The most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to Granger cause energy consumption, but the reverse is not true. The lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions, Turkey does not have to forgo economic growth.