成都市环境经济系统的物质流分析

利用物质流分析方法,对2000～2007年成都市环境经济系统中物质输入与输出进行分析,结果表明：（1）在不考虑水的情况下,成都市物质输入与输出总量呈相似的增长趋势,但物质库存量有净增长;固体物质输入量的递增速率大于气体物质输入量的递增速率,物质输出量气体占主体;（2）物质输入与输出强度不断增加,而单位GDP物质输入量与输出量呈快速递减趋势,物质生产力不断上升,表明成都的资源综合利用效率明显提高,区域经济增长和环境压力正在逐步脱钩;（3）水的输入输出量呈上升趋势,但是其强度基本保持不变,用水效率稳步提高。     

中国制造业资本存量永续盘存法估计

KLEMS 项目的目的是在北美,欧洲和亚洲进行生产率的多国比较。本文讨论了 KLEMS 研究中估计资本存量的基本方法一永续盘存法及其经济含义。在这个研究中,根据中国的现有数据,应用永续盘存法估计了1985—1995年间,中国制造业分部门的资本存量。本文详细地分析了估计中所使用的数据,并讨论了所使用的假设与必要的数据调整,以及这些假设与数据调整所可能带来的估计中的误差。     

中国能源利用效率、绩效及其障碍

中国政府将加快发展能源产业、坚持节约能源和保护环境作为一项基本国策。随着我国经济的不断发展,能源消费总量虽然在逐年增加,但能源利用效率却在不断提高。在中央政府政策的推动下,能源强度虽然呈下降趋势,但近年来下降的速度明显趋于平缓,低于改革开放初期。在分析总结我国能源利用效率变化的趋势和特点的基础上,通过对能源强度系数进行分解,发现能源强度变化的技术效应和结构效应都有减弱的趋势,尤其是结构效应。在此基础上从经济发展和社会因素两方面,进一步探讨了阻碍我国能源利用效率进一步提升的原因。     

考虑技术进步和结构变化的宏观能源回弹效应估算

考虑到技术进步和结构变化引致的宏观能源回弹效应影响广泛但相关研究不足,本文使用多部门增长核算法和LMDI指数分解法,分别对技术进步和结构变化引致的能源回弹效应构建估算模型,进而估算我国2005年—2019年含6个细分部门的整体经济和含18个细分部门的工业能源回弹效应。研究显示,在整体经济和工业层面,技术进步引致的能源回弹效应在研究期内一直存在,结构变化引致的能源回弹效应仅在部分年份存在。近年来,工业结构变化呈现如下趋势：即仅促进了经济增长却没有促进能耗强度下降。本文的研究可为进一步完善能源效率政策提供重要参考。     

开放条件下中国工业能源强度的影响因素分析——基于31个行业面板数据的实证分析

本文运用中国工业31个行业1998年-2004年的面板数据,分析了能源价格、FDI的进入程度、进出口商品结构、工业内部的行业结构和R＆D投资强度对中国工业能源强度的影响。研究发现,能源价格的上涨对提高工业能源利用效率有显著的促进作用;降低FDI的进入程度与R＆D投资强度都有助于降低工业特别是高能源强度行业的能源强度;降低高能源强度行业的出口额在工业出口总额中的比重,有利于降低高能源强度行业的能源强度,进口商品结构变化对工业能源强度没有显著影响;降低高能源强度行业的工业增加值在整个工业增加值中的比重,有助于降低全工业行业和低能源强度行业的能源强度。     

Changes in carbon intensity in China: Empirical findings from 1980–2003

China experienced sustainable, rapid economic growth over the period 1980–2003 but, at the same time, energy-related carbon intensity showed a downward trend. It begs the question, therefore, what factors were driving this decline in carbon intensity and will this decline be maintained in future? Moreover, what measures can be adopted to ensure a continual decline in carbon intensity? These questions led to increased research in the factors governing CO₂ emission in China. This paper quantifies the driving force behind China's primary energy-related carbon intensity and measures the material production sectors' final energy-related carbon intensity. Our results show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline of energy-related carbon intensity was the reduction in real energy intensity. However, policies that focus only on the decline in energy intensity are insufficient to further decrease carbon intensity. The change of primary energy mix can improve the decline of carbon intensity. This should focus on the material production sectors' development strategies and final energy use. Greater emphasis should be given to secondary industry, which needs national and regional governments' policy support.     

基于Lasperes完全分解模型的新疆工业能耗强度分解

本文基于Lasperes指数法改进的完全分解模型,对1994年—2009年新疆工业能源消耗强度的变动及其变动来源进行实证分析。研究发现：（1）在我国五大能源大省中,新疆的工业能源强度处于中上游,但相对全国其他省份来说,工业能源效率很低。（2）新疆工业能耗强度在考察期内呈现下降趋势,主要是各行业能源使用效率提高的结果。在三大工业行业以及高能耗行业中,能源强度的变化是受效率因素变化带动的,而在中等及低能耗行业的能源强度变化中,效率因素和结构因素都没有表现出明显的主导性。（3）新疆工业不论是在结构调整或是效率改进上,都主要依赖于制造业、高能耗行业内的经济结构调整及效能改善。     

Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the U.S. Economy: A Structural Decomposition Analysis

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of various influences on carbon dioxide emissions. It incorporates methodological refinements of input-output structural decomposition analysis, which is the examination of economic change by means of a set of comparative static variations in key parameters of I-O tables. The analysis is performed using a two-tiered KLEM model, which allows for estimation of substitution and technological change effects within and between input aggregates. The model is used to decompose the sources of change in CO₂ emissions in the U.S. over the 1972–82 timeframe using hybrid energy/value tables for the initial and terminal years. Results show the significant effect of substitution within the energy sector and between energy and other inputs as the leading causes of the decline in carbon dioxide emissions.     

MODELING AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: THE IMPORTANCE OF INTERSECTORAL TRANSFER PRICES AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

The value-added model underlies current measures of aggregate productivity growth. Unbiased estimates result only if the economy is closed to trade in foreign-produced material inputs and all domestic intersectoral transactions are characterized by marginal cost pricing. Neither condition typically holds.
This paper identifies these biases and proposes a delivery-to-final-demand framework, a modified form of that first introduced by Domar. The rate of aggregate productivity growth is decomposed into terms identifying the contributions of total factor productivity growth within individual sectors, the reallocation of the economy's primary inputs among sectors, and changes in the allocative efficiency of markets for intermediate goods. The adjustments necessary to remove biases from existing value-added estimates are derived.     

电力利用效率差异及收敛分析

能源效率方面的问题一直是学术界关注的焦点。本文从电力的角度分析能源效率的差异和收敛。研究发现：我国东部电力利用效率普遍较高,中部其次,西部最低,且西部远低于全国平均水平;在电力利用效率的影响因素分析中,根据面板数据的PCSE估计的结果来看,经济发展水平与电力利用效率正相关,而第二产业产值占GDP比重则与之负相关;地区间经济发展水平缩小会促使电力利用效率差距的缩小,而第二产业产值占GDP比重的标准差缩小则会扩大电力利用效率的差距;只有东部地区存在σ收敛和绝对β收敛,全国、东部、中部和西部均存在条件β收敛,且东部的收敛速度最慢,而西部的收敛速度最快。     

全要素生产率、投入替代与地区间的能源效率

本文通过对传统的能源效率指标进行分解,考察了1986—2010年间我国各地区能源效率及其影响因素的变化情况,得到以下结论:(1)能源效率变化的主要影响因素按贡献大小的排列分别是技术进步、投入替代变化与效率改善。总体上看,全要素生产率的作用要大于投入替代。技术效率变化与技术进步对能源效率的影响与我国的市场化改革进程存在密切关系;(2)尽管地区间"能源效率缺口"绝对量在逐年扩大,但表现出一定的追赶与收敛趋势。能源效率的地区结构差异表现出一定的地带性;(3)在能源效率变化的三个分解项中,投入替代变化的差异是影响地区间能源效率差异的首要因素。以上分析结果不仅有助于理解中国及各地区的能源效率及其影响因素的变化趋势,而且将为节能减排政策的制定与完善提供一定的参考依据。     

Energy intensity: Deindustrialization,composition, prices,and policies in U.S. states

This paper uses the historical experience of U.S. states to examine the reasons why energy intensity has declined in some places more than in others. In aggregate, U.S. energy per dollar of GDP declined 34 percent between 1997 and 2018, but across states the decline varied from 9 percent in Iowa to 52 percent in Washington State. I show that none of this variation is explained by either deindustrialization or the changing composition of states’ industrial sectors. Although some U.S. state policies are significantly correlated with these changes, they are not correlated in a way that explains the changing overall state energy intensities. Energy intensity declines do not appear to be a result of leakage to other states or countries and have not been associated with slower economic growth.     

中国工业化中的能源消耗强度变动及因素分析--基于分解模型的实证分析

文章运用Laspeyres指数及其分解模型,对中国能源消耗强度进行分解,并对其影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明,1980年以来,中国能源使用效率虽然有了很大的提高,但与发达国家相比,能源消耗强度仍然有很大的下降空间。中国能源消耗强度下降主要是各产业能源使用效率提高的结果,相对于效率份额,结构份额对能源消耗强度的影响也少得多,除了少数年份外,产业结构的调整对降低能源消耗强度的作用是负面的。     

科技投入对长三角能源效率的影响评价——基于动态Malmquist生产率指数的实证研究

以1999-2009年数据为样本,先采用基于投入型Malmquist生产率指数法对上海市、江苏省和浙江省三省市的能源效率进行测算,然后采用面板数据进行回归分析,考察科技投入对能源效率的影响.结果表明:(1)江浙沪近11年的能源效率并没有明显提高,技术进步率下降是能源效率降低的内在原因；(2)科技投入对能源效率影响显著,可通过扩大科技资金投入、进行技术改造、技术创新等方式提高能源效率,促进长三角地区低碳经济的快速发展.     

On the Terms of Trade and Sectoral Reallocations

A commonly held view is that a small open economy adjusts to a negative external shock by switching both expenditure and resources toward the domestic traded goods sector. We show that, when both labor and imported inputs are used as factors of production, the average labor intensity in the nontraded sector may increase substantially with a decline in the terms of trade. This can lead to an internal transfer of labor into the nontraded sector, and an improvement in the trade balance even with a decline in traded sector output. This result depends on a combination of a high elasticity of substitution across nontraded varieties and large differences in labor intensities in the production of nontraded varieties. Our analysis suggests that intersectoral labor flows are not necessarily a good measure of an economy's flexibility, and that intersectoral resource reallocation and expenditure‐switching can move in opposite directions.     

Status of CO2 emissions, driving forces and mitigation countermeasures of Tianjin, China

ncing energy efficiency, exploiting and using clean and renewable energy, advancing energy structure adjustments, and actively developing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.     

The determinants of production-related carbon emissions in West Germany, 1985–1990: assessing the role of technology and trade

This paper examines the determinants of the substantial decline of West German production-related carbon intensity in the face of falling energy prices. A computable general equilibrium model is used to determine the simulated effects of observed changes of world energy prices and domestic energy policy on the sectoral patterns of carbon emissions, energy consumption, output, value-added and other indicators of structural change. The structural changes not accounted for by energy prices and energy policy are attributed to changing patterns of productivity growth in Germany and the rest of the world (ROW) and changing patterns of ROW demand. Weights on these driving forces are selected by least squares. One key finding is that the contribution of ROW productivity and demand patterns to emission-relevant structural change unaccounted for by energy prices and energy policy is just under 30%. The remainder is split almost equally among patterns of domestic autonomous energy efficiency improvement and domestic labor efficiency patterns.     

有偏技术进步对碳强度的影响及传导机制研究

通过构建包含资本、劳动和碳要素的超越对数函数模型,对中国30个省（市）（因数据缺失,不包含西藏和港澳台地区）技术进步偏向进行判别,通过构建多重中介效应模型,探究其影响碳强度的传导机制,并分析不同资源丰裕度下传导机制的异质性。主要结论：(1)碳要素偏向型技术进步和碳强度呈显著正相关,技术进步偏向碳节约型有助于推动碳减排;(2)碳要素偏向型技术进步可通过能源利用效率和经济发展水平中介效应间接影响碳强度;(3)资源型省（市）主要通过提高经济发展水平路径,而非资源型省（市）主要通过提高能源利用效率路径促进碳要素偏向型技术进步的减排效应;(4)碳要素偏向型技术进步的减排效应存在显著双门槛效应,能源利用效率越大、经济发展水平越高,碳要素偏向型技术进步对碳强度的影响越大。因此,需加大技术进步偏向碳要素节约的诱导力度,注意不同资源丰裕度下碳减排的不同路径,加强能源利用效率提高,推动经济绿色发展,助力“双碳”目标实现。     

中国水资源综合利用效率变化的结构因素和效率因素——基于Laspeyres指数分解模型的分析

在描述1980—2011年中国水资源综合利用效率的时序变化特点的基础上,运用拉氏指数分解模型,考察了导致中国工农业总体水资源利用效率降低的结构因素和效率因素。分析结果显示:总体而言,1980—2011年期间,结构调整和技术进步在提高用工农业水资源利用效率方面都发挥了积极作用;平均而言,效率因素对水资源消耗强度降低的贡献更大;分阶段看,结构因素与效率因素对水资源消耗强度下降的贡献在不同时期存在较大差异。基于此,提出提高中国水资源综合利用效率的政策建议。     

中国能源强度变动的区域因素分解分析——基于LMDI分解方法

中国区域之间经济发展水平差异较大,能源消费也存在差异,分析影响中国能源强度变动的区域因素能够在区域层面上进一步理解总体能源强度的变动。文章利用对数平均D氏指数技术(LMDI)对1995-2005年中国能源强度变动进行区域因素分解,发现由区域内能源强度所显示的区域内技术进步因素是影响中国能源强度变动的决定因素。