Sectoral adjustment of employment to shifts in outsourcing and trade: evidence from a dynamic fixed effects multinomial logit model

This paper analyzes the effects of trade and outsourcing on the transition probabilities of employment between sectors, using a dynamic multinomial logit framework with fixed effects. The data cover a sample of individual Austrian male workers over the period 1988–2001. Our results strongly support the view that international economic forces are important determinants of labor market turnover. In particular, an increase in the outsourcing intensity negatively affects the probability of staying in or changing into the manufacturing sector, even more so for industries with a comparative disadvantage. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Socio-demographics,political attitudes and informal sector employment: A cross-country analysis

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between informal sector employment and micro-level socio-demographic characteristics, political acts and attitudes, and individual norms. Using self-reported individual micro-level data from the World Values Survey for seven developing countries (China, Ecuador, Egypt, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and Yemen), our cross-country regressions and principal component analysis reveal that socio-demographic characteristics of individuals are strong predictors of their informal sector employment. Our estimations further document that individual preferences for an economically strong, interventionist and egalitarian state and confidence in state and political institutions are positively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment, whereas variables associated with confidence in free market institutions and support for competition are negatively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment. We also show that individuals who participate either actively or inactively in peaceful and lawful political processes are significantly less likely to work in the informal sector. Finally, we document that individual norms, such as religiosity and tax morale, are negatively correlated with informal sector employment. Throughout our analysis, instead of having to rely on ad-hoc informality categorizations of third parties, we base our measurement of informal sector employment directly on the self-evaluation of individuals, who have the best information on the degree of their informality.     

承接金融服务外包对中国就业的影响

研究以金融行业外包服务数据为样本,沿直接与间接两种影响渠道,分析承接金融服务外包对我国就业数量与就业结构的影响,对就业数量变动的流向与趋势进行测算,深入到了劳动力就业质量层面。实证结果表明,承接金融服务外包可以扩大第三产业的相对就业比重,改善知识结构,有利于就业结构与产业结构之间的平衡。但不熟练工人的金融外包业准入将受到限制,加深了他们的就业困境。如何借此机遇将大量低技术劳工培训成合格人才将成为一个严峻的挑战。研究还提出了针对这一新产业形态未来发展的总结与展望。     

A specific-factors view on outsourcing

A distinctive feature of the present wave of economic globalization is that the principle of world-wide arbitrage is increasingly applied to individual components of value-added chains, rather than final goods. The result is a phenomenon called outsourcing, or international fragmentation. Economists have investigated this phenomenon with a focus on welfare and factor-price effects, mainly using Heckscher-Ohlin-type trade models. Existing studies emphasize a positive welfare effect of international fragmentation, but reveal ambiguous effects on factor prices. This paper first reviews the existing literature, identifying the crucial modeling differences that drive the various results. It then presents an alternative view on international fragmentation based on the specific-factors model. The analysis explicitly deals with the cost of international fragmentation, emphasizing that there will typically be a fixed-cost element, with important consequences for the welfare effect of outsourcing. Moreover, the paper highlights a crucial distinction between outsourcing with and without foreign direct investment. With foreign direct investment, outsourcing of a single fragment is sufficient to drive the domestic wage rate to the foreign level, adjusted for the cost of fragmentation. This holds irrespective of the factor-intensity ranking of fragments. If outsourcing takes place without foreign direct investment, then the factor-intensity ranking matters. Domestic labor loses if a labor-intensive fragments moves “offshore”, and vice versa. In both cases, international fragmentation may cause a welfare loss, if the cost of fragmentation includes a fixed element.     

Impact of trade liberalization on firm's labour demand by skill: The case of Tunisian manufacturing

This paper investigates the impact of the trade liberalization process in Tunisia on employment by distinguishing different skills and different types of firms using micro level data covering the period of 1983–1994. There is considerable disagreement among analysts on the impact of recent trade reforms upon labour. Our contribution to these debates in this paper is essentially an empirical issue. The analysis of a Tunisian firm's data may be viewed as an attempt to apprehend how employment in Tunisia, a developing country, adjusted to the trade reforms. Using micro-level detail on individual firms, we are able to trace the relationship between changes in trade policies and manufacturing employment at firm level and by skill. Although trade reforms are generally implemented at the sector level, their effects may vary significantly across firm characteristics such as output orientation. We measure the effects of trade policy on employment according to different types of firms. We also associate changes in employment directly with a measure of change in trade protection, rather than linking them to changes in imports and exports which would be more common. The results suggest that the impact of trade liberalization on labour demand depends on a firm's characteristics. In particular, the estimates obtained suggest that trade liberalization has beneficial effects on employment for exporting-firms. Conversely, trade liberalization has negative and disciplinary effects on employment for domestically oriented firms. The reduction in tariff levels conducted in this first phase of liberalization in Tunisia seems to have had effects with different intensity on unskilled labour and on skilled labour; this justifies the examination of these two skills.     

参与不同形式外包对中国劳动力就业动态效应的经验研究

本文基于投入产出法,利用日本RIETI-TID数据库测算了中国1997～2008年的承接外包水平与对外发包水平,并细分不同路线和形式的外包活动,构建了动态面板模型。利用广义矩估计方法从微观角度检验了外包对我国主要产业就业的动态效应。结果表明:总体上对外发包和承接外包均会对长期就业水平有积极影响,其中对外发包作用更大;制造业中,尽管承接加工品、零配件和资本品对长期就业的影响系数为负,但可以通过产出的扩大间接正向拉动就业;相对于对外发包的显著影响,吸收外商直接投资和消费品出口行为对长期就业影响不显著。     

The role of outsourcing in driving global carbon emissions

Globalisation has narrowed the gap between producers and consumers of goods and services. The linkages between international trade and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have started to be recognised, yet the extent of outsourcing of emissions across nations is unknown. Filling this gap in knowledge is critical for designing effective policy mechanisms for assigning responsibility for reductions in emissions. Here we present a structural decomposition analysis of global trends in outsourcing of emissions from 1990 to 2010 for 186 individual countries. To this end, we disaggregate total CO₂ emissions for each country into contributions from the domestic economy and international trade. This allows us to unveil outsourcing trends for all nations confirming a world-wide shifting of emissions-intensive production across borders. We categorise nations into “outsourcers” – countries that outsource carbon-intensive production to so-called contractor nations. Our detailed assessment of the commodity content of global outsourcing flows reveals interesting insights about the trade of carbon-intensive commodities.     

企业人力资源外包的风险及其防范

人力资源外包风险是指企业在把人力资源管理活动的部分或全部内容外包的过程。人力资源外包是近些年人力资源管理领域中开展得越来越普遍的一项创新活动,并日益受到各类企业的重视。但是,在人力资源外包中也存在着很多风险性因素,例如:外包服务商选择方面的风险、企业文化冲突的风险、信息安全及经营安全的风险、员工流失与抵制的风险等等。本文首先阐述了人力资源外包风险的来源,然后分析了人力资源外包风险的理论成因,最后提出了人力资源外包风险的防范对策。     

Trends in industrial relations and human resource policies and practices: Australian experiences

This article seeks to chart the main trends which have occurred in Australian industrial relations and human resource (IR/HR) policies and practices, at the macro-level, during the past decade. It also attempts to link changes at the macro-level with those at the micro-level, by drawing on case-study data from nine large organizations in both the private and public sectors. The framework for the case studies is derived from a broader international project initiated by Kochan et al.at MIT (see Kochan, 1991). A set of IR/HR practices were chosen to enable changes in employment relations to be studied in a systematic manner in various industries. Drawing upon these data, our research sought to analyse the dominant patterns in each of the core IR/HR areas, the degree of change which had occurred and the reasons for these changes. This also enabled alternative hypotheses to be tested, as outlined later in this article.     

TRADE INTEGRATION,OUTSOURCING AND EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRIA: A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH

Outsourcing and trade integration of advanced countries is debated with respect to employment effects, in particular for low educated workers – at least in relative terms. We study the employment effects – differentiated by educational attainment levels – of changes in the patterns of trade integration and outsourcing in the Austrian economy over the periods 1995–2000 and 2000–2005 using hierarchical decomposition analysis based on deflated input–output tables. Outsourcing is modeled as changes in the shares of domestically produced intermediates in total intermediates. A similar decomposition of the final demand vector allows us to draw conclusions on the overall employment effects of trade integration. The results suggest that the expected negative employment effects of outsourcing and rising import penetration have been overcompensated by increasing exports. Thus, the overall employment effects of Austrian trade integration have been positive for all educational attainment groups. However, whereas the total effects have been strongest for medium and high educated workers over the period 1995–2000, employment of low educated workers have been strongest and positively affected over the period 2000–2005. This pattern can be explained by a more sluggish export performance together with stronger negative effects of outsourcing and import penetration in medium and high-skill intensive products.     

业务外包决策管理分析

一、引言 美国管理科学专家曾于上个世纪80年代初提出了并进行系统研究的一种决策分析理论—能力集分析（Competence Set Analysis）。能力集分析作为一门应用性很强的决策分析科学，在企业能力、动态战略决策等领域有着广泛的应用，包括企业业务外包决策。     

Research collaboration and R&D outsourcing: Different R&D personnel requirements in SMEs

The literature on ‘open’ innovation emphasises the need to engage in external knowledge relations in order to innovate. Particularly for SMEs, research cooperation and R&D outsourcing can offer possibilities to complement the often limited internal research resources. However, they also bring in their wake requirements in terms of absorptive capacity and managerial skills of the internal R&D personnel.The paper focuses on the different requirements in terms of availability and training of research managers and R&D experts for research cooperation versus R&D outsourcing in SMEs. An empirical analysis of micro-level data provided by the OECD business R&D survey for Belgium reveals that the relation between R&D personnel requirements and research collaboration and R&D outsourcing depends upon the SME size. Therefore, to study this subject appropriately a distinction between very small, small, and medium-sized firms is relevant. Very small firms engage significantly less in research cooperation than medium-sized firms and the propensity to engage in research cooperation is positively associated with the share of PhD holders among the research managers and R&D experts. For R&D outsourcing a lower involvement is noted in medium-sized firms, and the propensity to outsource increases with the formal qualification level of the R&D personnel and with R&D training. Among the SME, small firms are most engaged in research cooperation and in R&D outsourcing. In the case of research cooperation they rely on highly qualified experts. For R&D outsourcing activities both the presence of research managers and R&D experts is important.     

谈服务外包人才培养对高校毕业生就业的推动作用

服务外包的出现与发展,能够有效缓解社会就业压力、能够大力提高企业生产效率。尤其是在有效解决高校毕业生就业问题上,有着积极的推动作用和现实意义。如何让外包企业吸纳更多的优秀高校毕业生,是值得研究和关注的课题。     

Work,employment and engagement conditions in a female‐dominated public service occupation after restructuring/outsourcing

Most research on the phenomenon of public service restructuring/outsourcing focuses on lower skilled work in peripheral activities and typically provides an overview of effects on work, employment and employment relations. Through an in‐depth case study of probation, the intention of this article is to explore professional worker experiences of the restructuring/outsourcing of a core public service activity where the workforce is female dominated. The article highlights three dimensions of job quality that all suffered deterioration—work, employment and engagement. The case of probation adds to evidence demonstrating that employees experience adverse effects even though transfer regulations and union agreements supposedly protect workers. Probation also stands as an exemplar of impoverishment processes in a female‐dominated occupation which reinforces the view that public services can no longer be relied upon to provide high‐quality jobs for highly qualified women.     

人力资本、培训成本与跨国服务外包

基于人力资本差异而形成的团队合作是国际服务外包的典型特征。运用简单的两国模型分析培训成本及人力资本水平对服务外包团队合作决策和收益的影响,研究结果表明:跨国团队的培训成本是国际外包决策的重要影响因素;团队协作成本不同的条件下,培训成本对发包方的收入影响不同;接包国的人力资本水平越高,发包国获得的收入越高,越有动力实施服务外包。     

Offshoring and job loss fears: An econometric analysis of individual perceptions

We quantify the impact of offshoring and other globalisation measures on individual perceptions of job security. For the analysis we combine industry-level offshoring measures with micro-level data from a large German household panel survey and estimate ordinal fixed effects models. Our results indicate that offshoring to low-wage countries significantly raises job loss fears whilst offshoring to high-wage countries somewhat lowers them. Over our sample period from 1995 to 2006, offshoring to low and high-wage countries together can account for about 13% of the total increase in job loss fears. High-skilled workers are more sensitive to offshoring although their objective job loss risk is lower relative to low-skilled workers, which we argue reflects the fact that they have more to lose from unemployment.     

Equilibrium unemployment with outsourcing under labour market imperfections

We study the effects of international outsourcing on equilibrium unemployment in a high-wage economy with labour market imperfections. We demonstrate, consistent with empirical results, that the wage elasticity of labour demand is increasing as a function of outsourcing. Furthermore, we show that a production mode with more outsourcing reduces the negotiated wage in a high-wage country with labour market imperfections if the relative bargaining power of the labour union is sufficiently high. Under such circumstances outsourcing reduces equilibrium unemployment. Finally, we characterize the optimal production mode showing that stronger labour market imperfections induce a production mode with more outsourcing.     

Flexicurity and job satisfaction in Europe: The importance of perceived and actual job stability for well-being at work

In this paper we study the effect of a micro-level measure of flexicurity on workers' job satisfaction. To this end, using micro-data from the Eurobarometer survey, we disaggregate the sample of workers into different groups according not only to their employment contract (i.e. permanent or temporary), but also to their perceived job security, and we evaluate differences in job satisfaction between these groups. After the potential endogeneity of job type has been controlled for, the results show that what matters for job satisfaction is not just the type of contract, but mainly the perceived job security, which may be independent of the type of contract.The combination “temporary but secure job” seems preferable to the combination “permanent but insecure job”, indicating that the length of the contract may be less important if the worker perceives that s/he is not at risk of becoming unemployed. Our main conclusions are robust to the use of alternative definitions of workers' types and they generally hold within different welfare regimes and also for different aspects of job satisfaction, mainly those more related to job security.     

推进两型社会建设 大力发展长沙金融外包产业

在长沙市推进作为"两型社会"建设的大背景下,文章分析了国际、国内外包业务的发展,为长沙金融外包业务发展提出拓宽金融外包业务领域、均衡发展国际国内市场和教产研结合,建立金融外包发展储备人才库的建议。     

中国制造业承接外包对产业国际竞争力的影响研究

文章从理论上分析了承接外包对中国制造业国际竞争力的影响机理,在此基础上分析了中国制造业承接国际外包对产业竞争力的影响。实证研究结果表明,承接外包分工对我国制造业的竞争力提升产生了积极影响,但对资本(技术)密集型行业与劳动密集型行业影响程度不同。其中,对劳动密集型产业竞争力的影响系数为1.103874,而对资本(技术)密集型产业的影响系数为3.109623。