Technical change,technical efficiency,and input usage in Taiwanese agricultural growth

We analyse the increase in sales of Pick 3 and Pick 4 daily numbers lottery games and other Ohio Lottery games after Ohio introduced midday drawings for the Pick 3 and Pick 4 games in August 1999. The midday drawings increased Pick 3 sales by 5%, Pick 4 sales by 12%, and total lottery sales by 2% based on our analysis of a 36-month panel dataset of Ohio lottery sales by zip code. Midday drawings raise more revenue from the strongly regressive daily numbers games. However, the introduction of midday drawings does not change the negative income elasticities of demand for numbers games in an economically meaningful manner.     

Measuring resource scarcity in non-renewable resource with an application to oil and natural gas in Alberta

In this paper annual Canadian exploration data are used to estimate a multiple-output translog exploration cost function. A new definition of depletion is introduced and its estimated coefficient is found to be statistically significant. The fitted cost function parameters are then used to obtain estimates of the marginal costs of exploration for oil and gas. Our estimated marginal exploration costs are smaller than in previour studies because we have allowed for technical progress which offsets the depletion effects. These marginal cost estimates are employed, along with previous estimates of exploration rents, to measure resource scarcity. We find some evidence for the increased scarcity of oil and gas in Alberta. For oil there is a 10.1% per year increase in scarcity along the trend line while for natural gas there is a 2.4% per year increase in scarcity along the trend line.     

Detrimental externalities,nonconvexities and technical change

This paper reexamines the implications of detrimental externalities for the nonconvexity of the social production set. A simple model, allowing for induced technical change, is developed to illustrate that the imposition of effluent changes can induce technological changes which serve to ameliorate these nonconvexities.     

Thermodynamic implications for natural resource extraction and technical change in U.S. copper mining

Motivated by the lack of integrated approaches that do justice to both the thermodynamic and economic aspects of natural resource use and the lack of empirical studies combining the two disciplines, this paper provides an integrated framework for the valuation of technologies, substitution and technical change. The paper determines empirically the relationships between thermodynamic states of materials and the use of high-quality energy sources for the case of copper mining in the United States. The empirical analysis provides the basis for a nonlinear dynamic simulation of optimal resource extraction and endogenous technical change in the light of changing resource quality. The study assesses the potential for future improvements in U.S. copper mining.     

Product variety and technical change

Motivated by growth models based on the variety of capital goods, recent empirical studies have established links between productivity and several trade-based measures of product variety, carrying the implication that these measures may represent technology. We study this implication by explicitly proposing the variety of capital goods available for production as a direct measure of the state of technology. Within a simple growth and development framework, we derive a ‘conditional technological convergence’ hypothesis on how this variety should behave if it were indeed to represent the state of technology. The hypothesis is tested with highly disaggregated trade data, using tools from the income convergence literature. The results suggest that a trade-based count measure of the variety of available capital goods, allowing for product differentiation by country of origin, indeed behaves ‘as if’ it represented technology when change of technology is understood as a learning process, and that there is conditional technological convergence among our panel of mainly OECD and transition economies.     

Bargaining over productivity and wages when technical change is induced: implications for growth, distribution, and employment

I study a model of growth and income distribution in which workers and firms bargain à la Nash (Econometrica 18(2):155–162, 1950) over wages and productivity gains, taking into account the trade-offs faced by firms in choosing factor-augmenting technologies. The aggregate environment resulting from self-interested, objective function-maximizing decision rules on wages, productivity gains, savings and investment, is described by a two-dimensional dynamical system in the employment rate and output/capital ratio. The economy converges cyclically to a long-run equilibrium involving a Harrod-neutral profile of technical change, a constant rate of employment of labor, and constant input shares. The type of oscillations predicted by the model is qualitatively consistent with the available data on the United States (1963–2003), replicates the dynamics found in earlier models of growth cycles such as Goodwin (A growth cycle, in C.H. Feinstein (ed). Socialism, Capitalism and Economic Growth. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1967. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1967); Shah and Desai (Econ J 91:1006–1010, 1981); van der Ploeg (J Macroecon 9:1–12, 1987); Flaschel (J Econ: Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie 44:63–69, 1984) and Sportelli (J Econ: Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie 61(1):35–64, 1995), and can be verified numerically in simulations. Institutional change, as captured by variations in workers’ bargaining power, has a positive effect on the long-run rate of growth of output per worker but a negative effect on long-run employment. Economic policy can also affect the growth and distribution pattern through changes in the unemployment compensation, which also have a positive long-run impact on labor productivity growth but a negative long-run impact on employment. In both cases, employment can overshoot its new equilibrium value along the transitional dynamics.     

Energy conservation, unemployment and the direction of technical change

This paper extends the model by Smulders and de Nooij (Resour Energy Econ 25:59–79, 2003), where technical change can be biased towards labour or energy, by assuming a monopolistic union and a government which pays unemployment benefits, collects wage taxes and sells emission permits. The extended model is applied to the analysis of environmental tax reforms. A reduction in the level of energy use yields a double dividend by lowering pollution and unemployment, while temporarily inducing energy-saving technical change. It moves the economy to a new balanced growth path where unemployment is permanently lower, but long-run growth is not affected. A reduction in the growth rate of energy use induces a persistent bias in technical change towards labour and reduces long-run growth.     

Natural resource dependence, non-tradables, and economic growth

I argue that the commonly used nominal measure of natural resource dependence – the share of exports of primary products in GNP – understates in growth regressions the negative link between natural resource dependence and per capita GDP growth. I show that using a purchasing power parity adjusted measure yields an economically much larger negative relationship between per capita GDP growth and natural resource dependence than what has been suggested by the nominal measure. Consistent with the rent-seeking literature, I show that the resource curse is a symptom of societies characterized by high levels of corruption and sluggish checks and balances on political decision-making.     

Economic growth, skill-biased technical change and wage inequality: A model and estimations for the US and Europe

In recent literature skill-biased technical change has been viewed as a major cause for wage inequality. Some modelling and presentation of stylized facts have been undertaken for US time series data. A preliminary study of wage inequality in a model with knowledge as input in an aggregate production function has been presented by Riddell and Romer [General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth, 1998, MIT Press]. Although some important forces determining wage inequality are widely accepted we know little about the quantitative impact of each source and differences across countries. We present a growth model of the Romer type with innovation-based technical change and two skill groups where the growth of knowledge, the relative supply of the two skill groups, externalities and substitution effects among the two groups are the driving forces for wage inequality. We undertake estimates for US time series data and contrast those estimates with results from some European countries. In particular, we compare parameter estimations for US and German time series data. The paper concludes that there is less wage inequality across skills in Europe in contrast to the US on the macroeconomic level. But, considering disaggregated data we observe some increases in inequality for Germany, too. Although our model reveals important variables for the explanation of wage inequality there may, however, also be other factors, such as trade unions, which have impacted the wage spread.     

The link between institutions, technical change and macroeconomic volatility

This paper evaluates the role of technical change as a mediating channel through which the effects of institutions trickle down to affect growth volatility. Using different samples, estimation procedures and indicators of institutions and technical change, the results show that technical change is an important stabilizing force of growth volatility and that at least part of the stabilizing force of technical change originates from strong institutions. This conclusion does not appear to be generated by weak data, simultaneity bias or measurement errors and is remarkably robust to a large number of alternative specifications.     

What really matters: Discounting, technological change and sustainable climate

This paper discusses the interplay between the choice of the discount rate, greenhouse gas mitigation and endogenous technological change. Neglecting the issue of uncertainty it is shown that the Green Golden Rule stock of atmospheric carbon is uniquely determined, but is not affected by technological change. More generally it is shown analytically within the framework of a reduced model of integrated assessment that the optimal stationary stocks of atmospheric carbon depend on the choice of the discount rate, but are independent of the stock of technological knowledge. These results are then reinforced numerically in a fully specified integrated assessment analysis.     

Convergence in OECD countries: technical change,efficiency and productivity

The aim of this study is to analyse labour productivity convergence in the OECD countries over the period 1975-90. A nonparametric frontier approach is used to calculate the Malmquist productivity index. By breaking it down, the contribution in the growth of labour productivity of technical progress, of changes in efficiency, and of the accumulation of inputs per worker are quantified. Unlike other studies, the results obtained show that technical change has worked against labour productivity convergence, since it has always been greater in the countries with higher labour productivity.     

Entrepreneurship, structural change, and economic growth

The ability to adjust to structural change is vital to economic development, and entries can be active participants in this process. While the importance of factor reallocations for growth is widely discussed, the role of entrepreneurs in managing these reallocations is currently not well understood. This paper analyzes the role of entry activity for adjustments of the sectoral structure and its relevance for regional economic development. The historical framework is the accelerated economic transformation that occurred in industrialized countries during the mid 1970s, resulting in an increasing need to adjust. Based on German data from 1975 to 2002, evidence is presented that sectoral reallocations are an important means for transforming entrepreneurial activity into growth.     

Productivity and technical change: Measurement and testing

This paper considers two specifications, namely, the time trend (TT) and general index (GI) of technical change. These models are extended to accommodate the TFP growth accounting relationship in to the econometric model. We also propose a formal test to determine whether the TT or the GI model is appropriate for the data. I would like to thank Badi Baltagi for his comments and Peter Schmidt for suggesting the test proposed in the paper. None, other than me, is responsible for any remaining errors.     

Sustainable development,the Hartwick rule and optimal growth

Defining sustainable development as non-declining utility, the consistency of this concept with the Hartwick rule and optimal growth is explored when resources are exhaustible. A simple proof that a generalized Hartwick rule is necessary and sufficient for constant consumption is derived. The existence of a maximal constant consumption path is shown to depend critically on the elasticity of substitution; if this is less than 1, consumption declines; if it is greater than 1 then consumption is not maximal; if it is equal to 1 (the Cobb-Douglas case) then existence is proved. Consumption can increase along an optimal path if the pure rate of time preference is 0; if it is non-zero then consumption declines.     

Economic growth,structural change,and search unemployment

Economic growth is driven by structural change. Structural change does not come without a cost. The most evident social cost of structural change is high and persistent unemployment. This paper develops a model with an endogenously expanding service sector, where the constant flow of workers in and out of employment leads to structural unemployment. The main finding is that the level of unemployment is different between the initial period and the long-run equilibrium growth path, and that along the transition path, the level of unemployment will overshoot its equilibrium level, which can explain the long-run pattern of unemployment in most industrialized countries.      

Relative price efficiency,technical change,and scale economies for large commercial banks

One of the more important and frequently researched topics in banking is the production process. Previous studies of bank production, however, have employed a methodology which is not appropriate for regulated firms. We generate cost estimates for large commercial banks utilizing a generalized cost model which subsumes the commonly used model as a special case. Our findings suggest that the traditional methodology is inappropriate for the sample banks and generates biased estimates of cost parameters, scale effects, and the influence of technological change. The new methodology allows us to measure directly the effect of regulation on bank costs. The effect found is small, but significant.     

Species diversity, fishing induced change in carrying capacity and sustainable fisheries management

It is well established in the fisheries management literature that marine ecosystems are complex and marine species depend on one another. As a result, it is important to account for species diversity to ensure sustainable management. In addition, recent research published in the marine sciences literature has provided unequivocal evidence that fishing activities destroy habitats and inhibit production of planktons. This paper illustrates that if a conventional bioeconomic model is employed, an optimum effort policy as opposed to quota appears to result in sustainable management even if fishing impacts carrying capacity. However, the so-called optimum effort may collapse the stock if species diversity is not accounted for. Conversely, if species diversity and the impact of fishing on carrying capacity are considered, neither the equilibrium quota nor effort may guarantee sustainable yield.     

Labour and capital saving technical change in telecommunications

The Australian telecommunications sector is being improved and extended through substantial recent investment in intelligent technology such as digital switching, fibre optics, satellite and cellular transmission, and the Internet. These technologies are being progressively integrated with technology from the broadcasting, computer and electronics industries, providing a unified information infrastructure for information transmission and processing. Technological progress embodied in new equipment has the effect of increasing the efficiency of the factors of production. Such efficiency increases can be biased towards a particular factor. For instance, the impact of labour-augmenting technical change is a decline in the cost of labour per unit of production. When such biases are apparent the relativity between the costs of labour and capital per unit of production is changed. In the longer term, technical change can impact on the rate of employment growth and also on the rate of capital accumulation. In this study the Australian telecommunications cost structure is examined for the period 1919 to 1988. To measure labour saving and capital saving technical change a translog cost model is estimated. Multiproduct telecommunications cost studies typically employ the translog cost model (Evans and Heckman, 1984; Roöller, 1990a; 1990b; Shin and Ying, 1992; McKenzie and Small, 1997). The translog model places no a priori restrictions on substitution possibilities among the factors of production, and allows scale economies to vary with the level of output.     

A nonsmooth, nonconvex model of optimal growth

This paper analyzes the nature of economic dynamics in a one-sector optimal growth model in which the technology is generally nonconvex, nondifferentiable, and discontinuous. The model also allows for irreversible investment and unbounded growth. We develop various tools to overcome the technical difficulties posed by the generality of the model. We provide sufficient conditions for optimal paths to be bounded, to converge to zero, to be bounded away from zero, and to grow unboundedly. We also show that under certain conditions, if the discount factor is close to 1, any optimal path from a given initial capital stock converges to a small neighborhood of the golden rule capital stock, at which sustainable consumption is maximized. If it is maximized at infinity, then as the discount factor approaches 1, any optimal path either grows unboundedly or converges to an arbitrarily large capital stock.