The effect of corporate diversification on credit risk: new evidence from European credit default swap spreads

This article investigates the impact of corporate diversification on credit risk. To our best knowledge, this is the first paper to use credit default swap (CDS) spreads instead of bond yield or revalued book values to test the risk‐reduction hypothesis. The analysis relies upon a sample of STOXX^® EUROPE 600 index members and covers the years 2010–2014. After controlling for various CDS‐ and firm‐specific variables, we find that diversification strategies do not significantly lower CDS premiums. Multilevel mediation analysis further shows that information asymmetries overcompensate the risk‐reducing effects resulting from corporate diversification.     

Firm diversification and the value of corporate cash holdings

This paper studies the effect of firm diversification on the value of corporate cash holdings. We develop two hypotheses based on efficient internal capital market and agency problems. We find that the value of cash is lower in diversified firms than in single-segment firms, and that firm diversification is associated with a lower value of cash in both financially unconstrained and constrained firms. We find that firm diversification has a negative (zero) impact on the value of cash among firms with a lower (higher) level of corporate governance. These findings are consistent with the interpretation that firm diversification reduces the value of corporate cash holdings through agency problems.     

Firm diversification and earnings management strategies: European evidence

This paper investigates whether corporate diversification, both international and industrial, provides a favourable environment for earnings management. We find that international diversification is associated with greater manipulation of accruals and sales but with lower manipulation of production costs. Industrial diversification is associated with lower levels of all three earnings management strategies. We find strong evidence that the combination of industrial and international diversification increases real activity manipulation but has no effect on accrual manipulation. Moreover, we find that in the presence of firm complexity linked to higher levels of earnings management, the recommendations of financial analysts are more likely to be on the sell side and vice versa. Our results provide useful insights to investors by highlighting the impact of corporate diversification on earnings management and, thus, the accurate estimation of firm value.     

The diversification and financial performance of US credit unions

For US credit unions, revenue from non-interest sources has increased significantly in recent years. We investigate the impact of revenue diversification on financial performance for the period 1993–2004. The impact of a change in strategy that alters the share of non-interest income is decomposed into a direct exposure effect, reflecting the difference between interest and non-interest bearing activities, and an indirect exposure effect which reflects the effect of the institution’s own degree of diversification. On both risk-adjusted and unadjusted returns measures, a positive direct exposure effect is outweighed by a negative indirect exposure effect for all but the largest credit unions. This may imply that similar diversification strategies are not appropriate for large and small credit unions. Small credit unions should eschew diversification and continue to operate as simple savings and loan institutions, while large credit unions should be encouraged to exploit new product opportunities around their core expertise.     

Cyclicality of credit supply: Firm level evidence

We quantify fluctuations in bank-loan supply in the time-series by studying firms' substitution between loans and bonds using firm-level data. Any firm that raises new debt must have a positive demand for external funds. Conditional on the issuance of new debt, we interpret firms' switching from loans to bonds as a contraction in bank-credit supply. We find strong evidence of this substitution at times that are characterized by tight lending standards, depressed aggregate lending, poor bank performance, and tight monetary policy. We show that this substitution behavior has strong predictive power for bank borrowing and investments by small firms.     

Corporate international diversification and risk

This study analyzes the effects of corporate international diversification (CID) on risk. Results document a mostly positive relation between CID, as measured by four different empirical proxy variables, and equity risk. I also find that diversification increases the volatility of cash flows and earnings. There is no empirical support of a reduction in correlations between firm-level and domestic market-level cash flows of internationally diversified firms. Finally, this study shows that the risk-increasing effects of CID are stronger for firms that are in more advanced stages of the internationalization process. The latter finding would be consistent with firms expanding to more risky countries in their latter stages of CID.     

Determinants of heterogeneity in European credit ratings

In this study, we empirically analyze the determinants of heterogeneity in rating assessments across different segments of the European loan market. We conduct a benchmarking analysis using rating information on European corporate obligors from nine major Austrian banks that have a large share of foreign lending, particularly in the Central and Eastern European region. We provide evidence that, generally, overall heterogeneity among rating outcomes for foreign markets is higher than for domestic markets. Furthermore, we show that heterogeneity increases in transition economies and those markets where Austrian bank involvement is relatively low. Our evidence supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in the assessment of credit risk is determined not only by the objective quality of information, which is deemed to be lower in transition economies, but also by the subjective access to information about obligors measured by the level of domestic bank involvement in the respective foreign market. Furthermore, we quantify potential effects on regulatory capital requirements.     

Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market

Counterparty credit risk has become one of the highest-profile risks facing participants in the financial markets. Despite this, relatively little is known about how counterparty credit risk is actually priced. We examine this issue using an extensive proprietary data set of contemporaneous CDS transaction prices and quotes by 14 different CDS dealers selling credit protection on the same underlying firm. This unique cross-sectional data set allows us to identify directly how dealers' credit risk affects the prices of these controversial credit derivatives. We find that counterparty credit risk is priced in the CDS market. The magnitude of the effect, however, is vanishingly small and is consistent with a market structure in which participants require collateralization of swap liabilities by counterparties.     

Firm diversification and earnings management: evidence from seasoned equity offerings

Popular press suggests that diversified firms are more aggressive in managing earnings than non-diversified firms. We examine this claim in the seasoned equity offering (SEO) setting, where firms have been shown to have the incentive to manage earnings upwards. Using the cross-sectional modified Jones [(1991) J Accounting Res 29:193–228] model to measure discretionary current accruals, we find that discretionary current accruals are higher among diversified firms than in non-diversified ones. Our evidence is consistent with the view that the extent of firm diversification is directly related to the degree of earnings management. We further show that diversified issuers with high discretionary accruals underperformed other SEO firms.

Up and down credit risk

This paper discusses the main modeling approaches that have been developed for handling portfolio credit derivatives, with a focus on the question of hedging. In particular, the so-called top, top down and bottom up approaches are considered. We give some mathematical insights regarding the fact that information, namely the choice of a relevant model filtration, is the major modeling issue. In this regard, we examine the notion of thinning that was recently advocated for the purpose of hedging a multi-name derivative by single-name derivatives. We then illustrate by means of numerical simulations (semi-static hedging experiments) why and when the portfolio loss process may not be a ‘sufficient statistic’ for the purpose of valuation and hedging of portfolio credit risk.     

Information risk and credit contagion

This paper demonstrates a positive relationship between information risk and the credit contagion effect. We use abnormal changes in the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads to measure the contagion effect, and the dispersion of analyst forecasts as a proxy for information risk. We find that firms with higher information risk suffer a greater contagion effect that occurs in advance to the credit default events. This finding is robust under controls of key firm-specific characteristics and general condition of stock and credit markets.     

Sustainability and sovereign credit risk

The study investigates the impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) ratings on sovereign credit risk. The study measures sovereign credit risk using a market-based, structural and an analyst-based approach, while ESG scores are obtained from three different rating agencies. The contributions of this paper are multifold. First, we discover that higher sustainability performance at the corporate level significantly decreases market-based (CDS spreads) and structural (Distance-to-default) sovereign credit risk but has no consistent impact on analyst-based (Credit ratings) sovereign credit risk measure. Second, by expanding our research to include the concept of financial materiality based on the SASB materiality map, we break down and highlight the sustainability themes that require the most attention at the sovereign level and those that can affect the credit health of countries. Third, we demonstrate that the relationship between sustainability and sovereign credit risk varies across ESG rating providers, supporting the widespread belief that sustainability metrics lack standardization and are difficult to compare across providers.     

Sector heterogeneity and credit market imperfections in emerging markets

This paper shows that the impact of country interest rate shocks on emerging markets' economic activities can be associated with credit market imperfections affecting principally non-tradable activities. I present novel evidence documenting that tradable and non-tradable activities respond asymmetrically to changes in credit conditions in emerging markets. I show that country interest rate shocks are amplified through non-tradable activities, and that local credit substantially explains their output growth. Unlike the non-tradable sector, tradable activities are not significantly affected by changes in local credit conditions. To rationalize these findings, I introduce a small open economy model with heterogeneous access to international borrowing that accounts for the asymmetric response of tradable and non-tradable activities.     

International equity diversification and shortfall risk

International equity diversification benefits Canadian investors very substantially by reducing shortfall risk, as shown by results of a model that minimizes the risk of shortfall from a desired consumption level for a retired investor with an unknown date of death and stochastic investment returns. It does not benefit American investors materially. The United States equity market is a large proportion of the international equity market that is available to individual investors, and United States returns are highly correlated with other markets.     

Rollover risk and credit risk under time-varying margin

For a firm financed by a mixture of collateralized (short-term) debt and uncollateralized (long-term) debt, we show that fluctuations in margin requirements, reflecting funding liquidity shocks, lead to increasing the firm’s default risk and credit spreads. The severity with which a firm is hit by increasing margin requirements highly depends on both its financing structure and debt maturity structure. Our results imply that an additional premium should be added when evaluating debt in order to account for rollover risks, especially for short-matured bonds. In terms of policy implications, our results strongly indicate that regulators should intervene fast to curtail margins in crisis periods and maintain a reasonably low margin level in order to effectively prevent creditors’ run on debt.     

Firm life expectancy and the heterogeneity of the book-to-market effect

I argue that the reason the book-to-market effect is stronger in small stocks is because smaller stocks generally have shorter life expectancy and therefore shorter equity duration. I build a model in which the book-to-market effect is stronger in stocks with shorter life expectancy. Empirically, I use delisting probability as my proxy for life expectancy. The data support my model's central prediction and its additional implications for stock return and variance. My results provide a rational explanation for the heterogeneity of the book-to-market effect, evidence previously taken as support for behavioral explanations.     

Product market competition and credit risk

This study theoretically and empirically investigates effects of product market competition on credit risk. We first develop a real-options-based structural model in a homogeneous oligopoly and show that credit spreads are positively related to the number of firms in an industry. The disparity of firm size in an industry is relevant to both product market competition and credit risk, and we therefore extend the model to an asymmetric duopoly case. In particular, we demonstrate that credit spreads of relatively small (large) firms within an industry are positively (negatively) related to Herfindahl-Hirschman index, and the relative firm size in an industry is an important determinant of credit risk. The models’ implications are empirically scrutinized by a reduced-form hazard model and generally supported. By performing out-of-sample analyses, the results demonstrate that firm size together with the interaction terms between intra-industry firm size dummies and competition intensity can effectively predict default.     

Financial statement comparability and credit risk

Prior research shows that firms’ financial statement comparability improves the accuracy of market participants’ valuation judgments and thus may reduce firms’ costs of capital. Distinct from prior research focusing on the equity market, we develop measures of comparability relevant to debt market participants based on the within-industry variability of Moody’s adjustments to reported accounting numbers for the purposes of credit rating. We examine two sets of adjustments: (1) to the interest coverage ratio and (2) to non-recurring income items. We validate these comparability measures by providing evidence that greater comparability is associated with lower frequency and magnitude of split ratings by credit rating agencies. We predict and find that greater comparability is associated with (1) lower estimated bid-ask spreads for traded bonds, (2) lower credit spreads for both bonds and five-year credit default swaps, and (3) a steeper one- to five-year credit default swap term structure. Our results are consistent with financial statement comparability reducing debt market participants’ uncertainty about and pricing of firms’ credit risk.