Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area

This paper compares the cyclical properties of fiscal policies across the 12 original eurozone countries and the future members from Central and Eastern Europe. For the sample period 1995–2005, the fiscal balance exhibits less inertia and is more counter-cyclical in Central and Eastern European countries than in members of the eurozone. The main differences arise from the revenue side. Differences in the formation of fiscal policy between current and future eurozone countries decrease over time. Both autonomous and counter-cyclical fiscal policies have little or no effect on cyclical variability in the eurozone countries, while such policies appear to be effective in Central and Eastern European countries.     

The productivity growth of euro area banks

Journal of Productivity Analysis - We study the performance of the banking system in the Eurozone over the period 2006–2017 as measured by total factor productivity growth (TFPG) and its...     

The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area

Recent studies have emphasized that survey-based inflation risk measures are informative about future inflation, and thus are useful for monetary authorities. However, these data are typically only available at a quarterly frequency, whereas monetary policy decisions require a more frequent monitoring of such risks. Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that high-frequency financial market data have predictive power for the low-frequency survey-based inflation risk indicators observed at the end of a quarter. We rely on MIDAS regressions for handling the problem of mixing data with different frequencies that such an analysis implies. We also illustrate that upside and downside risks react differently to financial indicators.     

Labor market institutions and inflation volatility in the euro area

Despite having had the same currency for many years, EMU countries still have quite different inflation dynamics. In this paper we explore one possible reason: country specific labor market institutions, giving rise to different inflation volatilities. When unemployment insurance schemes differ, as they do in EMU, reservation wages react differently in each country to area-wide shocks. This implies that real marginal costs and inflation also react differently. We report evidence for EMU countries supporting the existence of a cross-country link over the cycle between labor market structures on the one side and real wages and inflation on the other. We then build a DSGE model that replicates the data evidence. The inflation volatility differentials produced by asymmetric labor markets generate welfare losses at the currency area level of approximately 0.3% of steady state consumption.     

MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the euro area

This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model specification in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g. monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models which are based on exponential lag polynomials for the coefficients, whereas MF-VAR does not restrict the dynamics and can therefore suffer from the curse of dimensionality. However, if the restrictions imposed by MIDAS are too stringent, the MF-VAR can perform better. Hence, it is difficult to rank MIDAS and MF-VAR a priori, and their relative rankings are better evaluated empirically. In this paper, we compare their performances in a case which is relevant for policy making, namely nowcasting and forecasting quarterly GDP growth in the euro area on a monthly basis, using a set of about 20 monthly indicators. It turns out that the two approaches are more complements than substitutes, since MIDAS tends to perform better for horizons up to four to five months, whereas MF-VAR performs better for longer horizons, up to nine months.     

Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data

This paper uses multivariate cointegration techniques to estimate a model of aggregate bank lending in the euro area. The model provides a quantitative benchmark for assessing conjunctural developments in loans to the area-wide private sector. Large and protracted deviations of realised loans from the paths implied by the model may reveal information about the emergence of financial imbalances as well as about the state of the economy, particularly about the strength of inflationary pressures. A specific application of the model shows that its error-correction term contains information on future changes in inflation over forecast horizons of relevance for monetary policy.     

Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for euro area growth. Our forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single equation models. Euro area aggregate forecasts are constructed both by employing aggregate variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. The forecast evaluation is based on a recently developed test for equal predictive ability between nested models. Employing a monthly dataset from the period between January 1988 and May 2005 and setting the out-of-sample period to be from 2001 onwards, we find that the single most powerful predictor on a country basis is the stock market returns, followed by money supply growth. However, for the euro area aggregate, the set of most powerful predictors includes interest rate variables as well. The forecasts from pooling individual country models outperform those from the aggregate itself for short run forecasts, while for longer horizons this pattern is reversed. Additional benefits are obtained when combining information from a range of variables or combining model forecasts.     

ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators with the aim to provide early signals for turning points in the euro area headline and core inflation cycles. The headline (core) ALICE leads the reference cycle by three (four) months and the lead times extend to five (nine) months based on longer-leading series. Both ALICE indicators signalled turning points in the inflation cycles ex post and also performed well in a simulated real-time exercise. Moreover, in particular the headline ALICE also appeared to be useful for quantitative forecasting of the direction and level of inflation.     

P-star in times of crisis – Forecasting inflation for the euro area

In this paper we present three empirically testable versions of the common p-star model and evaluate their forecasting performance using conventional techniques. We try to answer the question if the p-star approach is preferable to achieve a reliable short-run inflation forecast and with regard to the latter we incur the need for a stable demand for money function. Our findings indicate the recurrence of the relevance of the monetary pillar of the ECB's two-pillar framework. In addition, we check for the effects of the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 on the forecasting performance, using two sub-sample periods, one excluding and one including the latter, and analyze the impact of the applied filter technique to compute the required equilibrium values.     

Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model

This paper proposes an extension to Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models to capture time-varying interdependence among financial variables. Government bond spreads in the euro area feature a time-varying pattern of co-movement that poses a serious challenge for econometric modelling and forecasting. This pattern of the data is not captured by the standard specification that model spreads as persistent processes reverting to a time-varying mean determined by two factors: a local factor, driven by fiscal fundamentals and growth, and a global world factor, driven by the market’s appetite for risk. This paper argues that a third factor, expectations of exchange rate devaluation, gained traction during the crises. This factor is well captured via a GVAR that models the interdependence among spreads by making each country’s spread function of global European spreads. Global spreads capture the exposure of each country’s spread to other spreads in the euro area in terms of the time-varying ‘distance’ between their fiscal fundamentals. This new specification dominates the standard one in modelling the time-varying pattern of co-movements among spreads and the response of euro area spreads to the Greek debt crisis.     

Bayesian VAR forecasts,survey information,and structural change in the euro area

We incorporate external information extracted from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters into the predictions of a Bayesian VAR using entropic tilting and soft conditioning. The resulting conditional forecasts significantly improve the plain BVAR point and density forecasts. Importantly, we do not restrict the forecasts at a specific quarterly horizon but their possible paths over several horizons jointly since the survey information comes in the form of one- and two-year-ahead expectations. As well as improving the accuracy of the variable that we target, the spillover effects on “other-than-targeted” variables are relevant in size and are statistically significant. We document that the baseline BVAR exhibits an upward bias for GDP growth after the financial crisis, and our results provide evidence that survey forecasts can help mitigate the effects of structural breaks on the forecasting performance of a popular macroeconometric model.     

Green shoots and double dips in the euro area: A real time measure

In order to perform real-time business cycle inferences and forecasts of GDP growth rates in the euro area, we use an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the features of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments, such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions. We provide examples that show the nonlinear nature of the relationships between data revisions, point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. Based on our empirical results, we think that the real-time probabilities of recession inferred from the model are an appropriate statistic for capturing what the press call green shoots, and for monitoring double-dip recessions.     

Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area

In this paper, we analyse the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany within the euro area with several seasonal methods. We draw a distinction between movements within Germany, circulation outside Germany but within the euro area and demand from non-euro-area countries. Our approach suggests that only about 20% of euro notes issued by Germany are used for transactions in Germany. The rest is hoarded (10%), circulates in other euro area countries (25%) or is held outside the euro area (45%).     

Economic development and resource degradation: Conflicts and policies

The paper develops a model that shares common features with computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. It is used to address two questions. First, what are the future prospects of a green gross domestic product (GDP); should we be concerned with resource degradation or not; and, to what extent, and under which conditions? Secondly, which policies are more effective than others? Model closures are simulated using different specifications of exogenous variables. Further, alternative policies are treated: human capital, price incentives, property rights and poverty reduction. In the African context, we show that while the prospects of environment-friendly economic development, i.e. a rising green GDP, are weak in the medium-run, under certain structural conditions there is a range of effective policies that resolves the conflict between economic growth and resource degradation, thus contributing to a rising green GDP.     

朱森林:寻找平衡之路

高尔夫球场上的挥洒淋漓,休闲会所里的悠然淡定,办公桌前的幽默谈吐--朱森林这位年轻的开发商,习惯于谦虚式地将自己排除在年轻人队伍之外.……     

Too [blank] to fail! The partial solution to the euro crisis

• In this article, I reflect on the darkest days of the Eurocrisis. Between 2010 and 2012 one half‐baked policy initiative after another provided no more than a temporary respite. Every action had been some weighted average of the optimal and the agreeable. The consistent crisis‐related irony was that the more Germany complained, the bigger the potential bill got, as capital fled from stricken economies, further fuelling fears of euro exit.
• The solution was stumbled upon mostly by accident. Eventually it dawned on markets that the exit bill was so big that northern Europe could no longer afford to pull the plug.
• Once the Greek elections were out of the way in mid‐2012, the Eurocrisis turned into a get rich quick moral hazard festival for asset managers, even as unemployment still soared in Europe.
• Everything became too something to fail. Spain and Italy were too big to fail; Spanish regions were too politically connected to fail; senior bondholders of distressed European banks were too systemic to fail; Ireland and Portugal were too virtuous to fail. And given the disastrous social consequences that would have been faced by Greece, it was simply too disgraceful for Europe to let Greece fail.
• In July 2012 Mario Draghi delivered his iconic and extremely helpful “whatever it takes” statement. But to me it was a symptom of the change in tides, rather than being the source of improvement in itself.
• The problem with moral hazard trades collectively is that they depended upon someone being willing to pick up the bill because it is in the collective interest to do so. In mid‐2012, it appeared like Cyprus was too unfair and geopolitically sensitive to fail (given ties with Russia). And as Greece showed in January 2015, the scope for political brinksmanship and crisis‐resurgence is not necessarily eliminated.

     

城市老旧社区重建的新途径

结合北京市的一个实际案例,指出老旧社区的问题不只是一个居住条件和城市物质外貌问题,其出现有着深刻的经济和社会原因.在解决老旧社区重建的过程中,必须把改善居住条件与解决低收入群体的经济问题和提高社区自治精神的社会问题结合起来考虑.老旧社区的治理必须是经济、社会、文化等多层次的.     

具有苏南特色的城市化之路

苏南城市化的主要经验是:工业化与城市化互动并进;开发区、新区建设与老城改造同时推进;善待农民.