清末红顶“赌王”刘学洵

和中国古今许多企业家一样,刘学洵有着强烈的政治情结,发财后,还渴望捞一票政治资本,但终究湮没于风云迭起的政治斗争之中     

刚柔相济 平息暴乱菲律宾女总统挫败老对头

菲律宾前总统埃斯特拉达于令年1月被赶下台后，在马尼拉圣胡安镇的豪宅里战战兢兢度过3个月的日子。4月24日，菲律宾国家廉政法院执法官乌列达在防暴警察的护送下抵达埃斯特拉达的住宅，下达了逮捕令，罪名是不可以获得保释的侵害国家经济罪。此举招致埃斯特拉达众多支持者的强烈不满，从而引发了菲律宾过去15年里最大规模的骚乱，上任尚不足百天的女总统阿罗约面临一场严重的政治危机。     

全球化背景下的地缘政治与国际反恐斗争的前景北大核心CSSCISSCI

九一一事件后,国际战略格局经历了全球反恐统一战线、"志愿者联盟"与国际体系冲撞、回归地缘政治常态三个阶段。随着国际战略格局的变动,当今地缘政治出现了新的特点:即国际关系回归现实主义的趋势日益明显,国际关系中军事因素的作用更加突出,大规模杀伤性武器的水平和垂直扩散依然是重要威胁。在这种国际大背景下,国际反恐斗争需解决三大问题:大国需要增强战略互信,强化以联合国为主导的国际机构的主导作用,促进地区安全合作并加强地区组织之间的合作是理想的途径。     

全球化背景下的地缘政治与国际反恐斗争的前景

九一一事件后,国际战略格局经历了全球反恐统一战线、"志愿者联盟"与国际体系冲撞、回归地缘政治常态三个阶段。随着国际战略格局的变动,当今地缘政治出现了新的特点:即国际关系回归现实主义的趋势日益明显,国际关系中军事因素的作用更加突出,大规模杀伤性武器的水平和垂直扩散依然是重要威胁。在这种国际大背景下,国际反恐斗争需解决三大问题:大国需要增强战略互信,强化以联合国为主导的国际机构的主导作用,促进地区安全合作并加强地区组织之间的合作是理想的途径。     

建立权力制约机制预防腐败行为发生

党的十六大指出,要建立结构合理、配置科学、程序严密、制约有效的权力运行机制,从决策和执行等环节加强对权力的监督,保证把人民赋予的权力真正用来为人民谋利益.针对当前我国处在社会主义初级阶段和经济转换时期,反腐败斗争的形势依然比较严竣,有些腐败现象仍然突出,有的甚至还在滋生蔓延的实际,应以"三个代表"重要思想为指导,认真贯彻胡锦涛同志指出的"为民、务实、清廉"的要求,建立健全权力制约机制,从根本上预防和减少腐败的发生.     

大选未预料的结局——土耳其执政三党集体下台教训深刻

民主左翼党、民族行动党和祖国党是土耳其前联合政府中的三大执政党,但三党在土11月初举行的提前大选中全面落败,三党均未超过10%的进入议会最低线.民左党尤为典型,得票率仅为1.2%.三党均是活跃在土政坛的多年老党,在土威信较高,此次全面出局,有许多深刻的教训值得总结和吸取.     

从反右运动看中国特色的政治斗争

一 1957年的反右派运动被称为＂政治战线和思想战线＂上的社会主义大革命,它是建国后七年中影响最重大的一次政治运动。尽管已经过去55年,但这场运动对中国政治和社会留下的深重影响并没有完全消除。今天,从国家社会政治生活、人的思维方式、行为习惯模式中不时可见许多似曾相识的东西,但在不同条件下内容与名称有了变化,对于不知道历史的人来说,还常以为它们是新的,因而重温历史很有必要。     

车臣恐怖分子穷途末路劫持飞机

3月15日15时，俄罗斯伏努科沃航空公司的一架图-154大型客机从土耳其的伊斯坦布尔国际机场起飞，飞往莫斯科。飞机上满载162名乘客和12名机组人员，乘客中除55名土耳其人外，其余都是俄罗斯人。     

党的思维方式转变对思想政治教育的影响

中国共产党历经革命、建设和改革，其自身也由一个革命的党转变成了长期执政的党。相应地，中国共产党领导和执政的思维也在实践与社会发展中不断转化，即由“斗争思维”转变为“和谐思维”。在思维方式转变的影响下，党的思想政治工作也在多方面发生了新的变化。     

经济学为什么不诚实？

什么是诚实经济学？经济学作为一门科学，可以不诚实吗？任何科学其实质都是解释社会经济过程的客观规律，从这个意义上说，它是诚实的。问题是，大多数时候我们面对的不是科学，而是政治情感和教条主义包裹下的意识形态。有时候，它是政治斗争和社会操纵的一种工具，     

Real dollarization in Phnom Penh,Evidence from two surveys

This paper aims to identify real dollarization in markets in Phnom Penh and to investigate how U.S. dollar (USD) and Cambodian riel or Khmer riel (KHR) perform the three functions of money—a unit of account, a store of value and a medium of exchange in markets in Phnom Penh through two simple surveys. Real dollarization refers to the use of the U.S. dollar for purchasing goods and services and for paying salary. We find that the choice of currency for transactions varies with market types, sources of products whether they are imported or domestically produced, and prices of products. The survey about currency for salary payment shows that the majority of employed persons in the private sector and in non-government organization receive salary in U.S. dollar while those who work in public sector receive salary in Khmer riel. The majority of employed persons save their money in U.S. dollar. In general, U.S. dollar dominates Khmer riel in performing the three functions of money in Phnom Penh.     

Capital Account Liberalisation by China and the Effects on Global FDI and Trade

We model the partial liberalisation of the capital account by China using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Our results indicate that a reduced capital controls on foreign direct investment (FDI) would lead to a significant increase in FDI capital in China and a significant reduction in the cost of capital in China relative to the rest of the world. Furthermore, we observe an increase in capital stocks in most regions, which benefits most regions in terms of GDP and GNP. The Chinese economy grows by 3.3% driven by a significant fall in the rental price of capital that, in turn, lowers domestic costs, causes a real depreciation of the exchange rate and thus increased exports relative to other regions. We also observe an across-the-board increase in the saving rate driven by the rise in the price of consumption relative to investment (saving) in all regions.     

Manufacturing productivity in China and India: The role of institutional changes

In this paper we undertake a comparative study of productivity in the manufacturing sector for China and India using data from survey of manufacturing industries for the two countries. We find that productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India improved substantially over the 1998–2003 period. Specifically, the average total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the manufacturing sector over this period was about 11% higher in China than in India. We document two substantial changes in government policies in China that were not witnessed in India. First, the late 1990s saw an enormous wave of ownership restructuring due to the formal endorsement of private property rights by the Chinese central government. Second, in 1997 a large scale labour retrenchment program was launched to address the long standing problem of labour redundancy in the public sector. Using data from the Chinese survey of manufacturing industries, we quantify the impact of these large scale institutional changes on TFP of Chinese manufacturing industries. We find that these policy changes can explain about 30% of the growth in TFP of manufacturing industries. Hence we conclude that these institutional changes in China can account for a significant part of the gains in productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India over the 1998–2003 period.     

THE MOMENTOUS GOLD RUSHES

Gold discoveries in Australia in 1851 and New Zealand in 1861 galvanised the economic development of Australasia and had spillover effects in Britain, in ship technology, and even in the trans-Atlantic trade. The gold rushes quickly transformed economic, social, and political life. Moving around the continent in an anti-clockwise direction, they were to help found the northern port cities that grew to service the gold seekers. While the major strike in Western Australia in the 1890s out-produced the earlier period, Australia saw a third gold peak in the 1990s. The article surveys the contribution of the rushes to the development of Australasia.     

英语中动结构的“非中”比附关联性研究

中动结构是同时存在于英语和西日耳曼语等印欧语系语言中的一种比较特殊的语言句式结构,汉语中并不存在有中动结构句这一特殊句式。英汉中动结构论完全是汉语的学习者和研究者在"母语迁移"因素的影响下,有意识地将汉语的形式与规则套用在英语中,生硬比附英语误读的结果。对于英语中动结构的"非中"比附关联性问题的深入探讨,将会促使对于中动句的研究统一起来,避免研究上的偏误和受到干扰以及知识的错误传播,进一步加强我们对语言深层机制的认识以及加深对英语研究的启迪。有利于培养习得者跨语言对比的能力和增强习得者驾驭语言的能力。     

服务贸易、非对称开放与全球失衡:一项跨国的经验研究

文章从贸易内部结构出发，分析非对称开放条件下，服务贸易兴起与全球失衡之间的关系。并利用全球59个主要贸易国家2000-2014年双边贸易数据对两者之间的关系进行计量分析，实证结果显示：第一，服务贸易净值与经常账户余额之间存在显著的负向关系，服务贸易净值提高100万美元，经常账户余额减少98.7万美元。在引入交互项之后这种关系依然显著成立。因此，服务贸易的非对称开放是造成全球失衡的重要原因。第二，技术进步和利率上调可以扭转服务贸易对经常账户的抑制作用。第三，金融危机之后，服务贸易和经常账户的负向关系进一步强化。后危机时代，全球失衡现象有可能继续恶化。第四，分位数回归发现，在低点位处服务贸易净值对经常账户的影响更为强烈。文章的研究为理解中国的服务贸易逆差提供了新的视角，并为扭转服务贸易逆差奠定了理论基础。     

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: A COMPARISON OF EAST ASIA AND EUROPE

Inspired by the observed contrasting patterns of geographical distribution of the electric machinery industry in East Asia and Europe, this paper conducts an empirical clarification of the difference in spatial relationships in industry sizes among countries within a region by use of spatial econometric techniques. The results indicate that, while the size of the electric machinery industry in a country is positively correlated with that of neighboring countries in East Asia, there is no significant spatial correlation in Europe. Such a difference in spatial interdependence has important implications for economic development in those regions.     

Corporate Cash Holding in Asia

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of corporate saving in the form of changes in cash holdings for 11 Asian economies using firm‐level data from the Oriana Database for the 2002–2011 period. We find some evidence that cash flow has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings (i.e. that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is positive) and that the positive impact of cash flow on the change in cash holdings is larger and more significant in the case of smaller and presumably more constrained firms than in the case of larger and presumably less constrained firms in both developed and developing economies. Both of these findings corroborate the importance of financial constraints in Asian firms. In addition, we find that the cash flow sensitivity of cash declined after the global financial crisis and that Tobin's q has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings, especially in the case of larger and presumably unconstrained firms.     

Fiscal policy independence in a European Monetary Union

Do plans for a monetary union in Europe call for limits on the freedom of the country members of the union to use fiscal policy? In order to provide a tentative answer, we simulate the IMF model MULTIMOD, given various shocks, in the case of a European Monetary Union consisting only of France and Germany. The results clearly indicate the possible value of allowing unfettered use of fiscal policy in both countries. The reasons lie partly in differences in the initial position of the two, partly in differences in their preferences. We also examine the change in the policy significance of the current account in the monetary union. Current account imbalances clearly cease to have the same significance in a monetary union; but they do not therefore become irrelevant.     

Banking in the Shadows: A Comparative Study of China and India

In recent years there has been increasing interest in the rise of shadow banking in China and India. In this paper, we aim to get a better understanding of the differences in trends and investigate the factors leading to the increase of shadow banking in these two major emerging economies. We find that financial exclusion is a common factor leading to the growth of shadow banking in both countries. While financial reform has taken place in India, financially repressive policies still prevail in China. Although several regulatory measures have been adopted in India and China, the size of the shadow banking sector in these two countries remains underestimated. Thus, streamlining and enhancing data collection is a key priority for both nations. We argue that regulation in both countries should be more activity focused (specific field in which a shadow bank is focused on) rather than sector or entity based, and it should be at par with banks. The shadow banks provide last mile connectivity to remote, distant, and ignored segments of the population not serviced by the formal financial sector. As this enhances financial inclusion, a balanced approach is required keeping in view both costs and benefits of the shadow banking system.