Putting It Off for Later: Procrastination and End of Fiscal Year Spending Spikes

Many governments around the world exhibit heightened spending at the end of the fiscal year. These end of fiscal year spending spikes often concern policy makers due to their tendency to result in lower quality spending. This paper uses UK data to offer evidence against the precautionary savings explanation for spending spikes. An alternative explanation is offered with procrastination driving heightened end of fiscal year spending. A new technique of time‐variant budgetary taxes is calibrated to the model, and it is shown to be effective for smoothing spending and improving spending efficiency throughout the fiscal year.     

Tuition Fees for Higher Education and Intergenerational Mobility in China

This paper studies the impact of an increase in higher education tuition on intergenerational mobility in China. We develop a theoretical model for the parental decision about the investment on education of children to illustrate the impact from the perspective of borrowing constraint. We consider the Chinese college tuition and subsidy reform around 1986 as a quasi-natural experiment for identifying the policy effect of the reform on intergenerational educational mobility by using the data from the census of 2000 and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). We find that an increase in the education burden induced by the reform of college tuition has reduced intergenerational educational mobility, and it is more noticeable in regions with a relatively higher increment in the tuition fee. Our results are robust with consideration of the co-residence bias, government investment in elementary education, and the higher education expansion.     

高等教育成本分担与学费政策问题

本文认为高等教育成本是受教育者接受高等教育服务所耗费教育资源价值的总和,根据受益和能力原则分担高等教育成本是制定高校学费标准的基本依据.提出了按学校地域、层次、科类专业、办学水平确定高等教育生均成本;按教育者家庭所在地(县级)分城镇和农村分别计算全国各地大学生应交纳高校学费标准;国家财政高等教育拨款分为高等教育生均基本拨款和差额拨款两个部分的基本思路;将高校学生资助纳入高校学费政策体系等新的思考.     

高等教育的变化与财政对策

公共财政已由“主要来源”变为“补助性质”,使高等教育产生财政危机。应在增加财政投资的同时,采取成本补偿、金融补偿,规范国有资产,鼓励企业赞助或个人办学,加大助学贷款与发放教育债券等措施,最终解决这一财政危机。     

The Spending Multiplier in the Medium Run

Most of the discussion about fiscal stimulus focuses on the multiplier of government spending on impact. In this paper we shift the focus to the multiplier at the end, i.e., to the period in which a deficit spending program terminates. We show that recent time‐series analyses and neoclassical as well new Keynesian business cycle models predict that the multiplier turns negative before spending expires. This means that aggregate output at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is lower than it could be without deficit spending. Here, we show why this phenomenon is a general outcome of mainstream business cycle theory and explain the underlying mechanism. Using phase diagram analysis, we prove that the aggregate capital stock at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is lower than it would be without a deficit spending program. This fact explains why aggregate output is below its laissez faire level as well.     

How a race to the bottom can make you fat

This article measures the effect of fiscal competition on obesity rates in the United States through education and health spending. We hypothesize that fiscal competition to attract firms results in lower business tax revenues and higher public infrastructure spending which crowds out education and health spending leading to an increase in obesity rates. We empirically test this hypothesis. We find that there is significant fiscal competition to attract firms. Next, we show that when business tax revenues are lowered and public infrastructure spending favouring businesses increased, public health and education spending declines and obesity rates significantly increase. Thus, fiscal competition significantly contributes to obesity rates through the education and health spending channel.     

财政支出与广义货币关系的协整分析及其政策含义

文章利用协整分析讨论了财政支出与广义货币的相互关系,发现在1978～2002年间,中国的财政支出和广义货币具有二阶差分平稳的特征,二者之间存在显著的协整关系.财政支出的变动速度是广义货币变动速度的Granger因,但不能说广义货币变动速度是财政支出变动速度的Granger因.财政支出的短期变化对广义货币的短期变化影响较大,并且是同方向的.广义货币供给的增长速度具有一定惯性,且具有向长期值的自我恢复功能.财政支出的增长速度并不具有自我恢复功能,这意味着政府应对财政支出施加一定约束,以避免财政支出在经济过热或不景气时发生过度扩张或紧缩.     

Competition and diversification in public and private higher education

The development of mass higher education and growing competition between higher education institutions has given increasing visibility to the issue of diversification. This article analyses the issue of programme diversification, using a panel of 181 Portuguese higher education institutions over the period 1995 to 2007, by comparing the behaviour of public and private institutions. The results show that the legal status of institutions is the major determinant of programme diversification, as private institutions are far more specialized than their public counterparts. The study also evaluates the role of other institutional variables, such as the institution’s size, age, location, institutional mission and research intensity, to explain differences in the diversification behaviour of higher education institutions. The results provide important insights, as competition has been thought to improve the performance of higher education institutions.     

Financial Student Aid and Enrollment in Higher Education: New Evidence from Germany*

Means‐tested student aid might affect enrollment in higher education. To derive the potential influence of student aid, we use a tax‐benefit microsimulation model. The effect is a non‐linear function of parental income, with variation as a result of bracket creeping and various reforms. Therefore, the effect of student aid on enrollment can be separated from the effects of income and other family characteristics. Using the German Socio‐Economic Panel, we find a small but significant positive effect, similar in size to the effects reported in previous studies for European countries but smaller than in the US.     

Enrolment in Higher Education and Changes in Income Inequality

Using a cross‐section of countries, this paper empirically examines whether greater enrolment rates in higher education are associated with increases or decreases in subsequent income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient. It finds a negative association between the two, suggesting that countries with larger enrolment rates saw their income inequality decrease relative to other countries. These findings are robust to the inclusion of several control variables and to limiting the sample to non‐OECD countries.     

财政支出结构与经济增长关系研究——基于发达国家的经验研究

笔者对13个发达国家1972年～2006年的面板数据进行了实证研究,结果显示:资本性(经常性)支出对经济增长率有负(正)效应,这与以往许多学者所认为的财政的资本性支出较之经常性支出对经济增长更有贡献的观点是相左的。其次,财政支出规模、私人固定投资以及外汇黑市溢价对经济增长也有着显著的影响。本研究对于在平衡预算下的财政支出结构决策有现实指导意义。     

Public Preferences for Government Spending Priorities: Survey Evidence from Germany

Employing data from a representative survey conducted in Germany, this paper examines public preferences for the size and composition of government expenditure. We focus on public attitudes towards taxes, public debt incurrence and public spending in six different policy areas. Our findings suggest, first, that individual preferences for the use of additional tax money can be categorised as either capital‐oriented expenditure or public debt reduction. Second, we find that fiscal preferences differ along various dimensions. Specifically, personal economic well‐being, economic literacy, confidence in politicians, political ideology and time preference are significantly related to individual attitudes towards public spending, taxes and debt. The magnitude of the effects is particularly large for time preference, economic knowledge and party preference. Third, public preferences for public spending priorities are only marginally affected when considering a public budget constraint.     

Japan's Higher Education Policies under Global Challenges

Over the past 20 years, Japan's higher education policy has been strongly influenced by national policies for achieving world-class excellence as a tool for economic and social development. However, Japan's universities, especially the top universities, have faced difficulties in maintaining an international presence, both in terms of academic excellence and the development of globally competitive human resources. This paper reflects on how national policies, especially economic and fiscal policies, have intervened in higher education since the beginning of the 21st century, and then investigates the impact of these policies and discusses the future perspective on Japan's higher education given the current global challenges.     

财政集权过程中的转移支付和财政供养人口规模膨胀

结合财政分权的理论文献,本文描述了中国最近10多年来政府间财政关系的演变,并分析了财政集权过程中转移支付增加对地方财政供养人口的影响。利用中国1994—2003年县级面板数据和工具变量方法,我们从实证角度确立了转移支付增加与财政供养人口规模膨胀的因果关系,并指出在我国目前的政府管理体制下,上级政府面临着无论增加哪种转移支付都可能带来问题的两难处境。要在控制政府冗员增长的同时促进公共服务的有效提供,中国需要建立一个财政上更加分权和行政管理上更有基层参与性的政府管理体制。     

地方政府财政支出结构影响农村居民消费的实证研究

地方政府财政支出可划分为投资性支出、消费性支出和福利性支出.通过构建适合我国农村居民消费特征的理论模型,运用1995-2009年省际面板数据,实证检验地方政府财政支出对农村居民消费的影响.结果显示:政府投资性支出和福利性支出对农村居民消费具有正向促进作用,政府消费性支出对农村居民消费则具有负向抑制作用.因此,政府应该进一步优化财政支出结构来促进农村居民消费的增长.     

财政分权与经济增长

对H.Davoodi,D.Xie,and H.Zou的两篇文章中的内生增长模型进行了改进;把地方财政决算支出占国家决算支出的比重看作衡量财政分权的指标,并利用1986-2004年间的数据对财政分权对我国经济增长的作用进行了两组回归分析。发现在1986-1990年间我国的财政分权的比重过高阻碍了我国的经济增长;在1991-2004年间我国的财政分权程度与我国的最大化经济增长相符。最后,对得出的统计结论进行了充分的解释。     

基于DEA的区域高等教育资源配置效率评价

区域高等教育资源优化配置关系到地区高等教育的教学、科研和社会服务的产出能力,关系到区域的核心竞争力。利用DEA方法及模型,对我国31个省区高等教育资源配置状况进行了相对有效性评价与比较分析,以推动各地区高等教育资源优化配置,促进高等教育与区域经济的良性、互动发展,提升区域创新能力和竞争力。     

我国高等教育层次结构的制度调优

在回顾国内外相关研究成果的基础上,结合我国高等教育发展的实际,探讨了我国高等教育发展中存在的层次结构问题,给出了一个初步的层次结构框架,并从制度建设的角度提出了对策建议。     

The role of Provincial Government Spending Composition in growth and convergence in China

China’s development policy since 1978 has differed across regions. With rapid aggregate growth has come widening regional inequality. The fiscal decentralisation reforms in 1994 shifted political pressure onto provincial officials to boost local growth through local public investments. These investments affect regional convergence by counteracting regulatory frictions in factor accumulation, and can also determine steady-state growth. However, the effect of public spending allocations across physical and human capital on growth and convergence processes is empirically unexplored for Chinese provinces. We take provincial time-series data on public spending by category, finding local public spending and its components augment convergence rates differently across regions. Spending on education and health contributes significantly more to growth and convergence than capital spending, confirming that the public capital-spending bias is not a local growth-optimising strategy. We suggest a policy of aligning local government promotion incentives to human capital targets to correct local resource misallocation.